Revel promotion sounds too good to be true
Quote: WizardHere is the table for a bankroll of 400 units. I added a row for a winning goal of 910, which is the optimal stopping point pared with a losing stop point of 400 units.
Win Exp. Val. Prob. Win 100 133.45 60.3% 200 169.99 48.4% 300 189.75 41.3% 400 202.35 36.1% 500 210.76 32.1% 600 216.18 28.9% 700 219.77 26.2% 800 221.98 23.6% 900 222.99 21.4% 910 223.02 21.2% 1000 222.78 19.5% 1100 221.93 17.8% 1200 220.29 16.4% 1300 218.24 15.1% 1400 215.74 14.0% 1500 212.93 12.9% 1600 209.73 12.0% 1700 206.42 11.2% 1800 202.80 10.4% 1900 199.12 9.7% 2000 195.27 9.1%
This is important so I'd like to make clear that this table would be appropriate only for the player who could raise $50,000 only. He should use that money to play $25 video poker ($125 total bet), which comes to $50,000/$125 = 400 units. Everybody should be playing $25 video poker on this promotion, it is just a matter of how many units you get your hands on and the appropriate winning stopping point for that bankroll. I've presented tables for 200, 400, and 800 units thus far.
On a related topic, I am guest hosting on Gambling with an Edge this Thursday. We taped the show yesterday and we talk quite a bit about this promotion.
How drastically would the EV change if a smaller denom machine were played with 800 units? Is it worth sacrificing some EV to lower variance in a promo like this?
Abe, your post concerns me. What difference does it make if you are an AP legally? How does that in itself provide cover for them to withold a promised rebate? I can see them putting in the 48 hours between redemptions rule, but rollover from week to week is going to be at 6 AM on a Monday morning, so if you lose the chance to do two weeks at once then, you haven't really lost THAT much. In terms of banning VP on the rebated free play, again that seems a little rough legally. "Free play" and its limits are somewhat well defined at Revel. Can you elaborate at all on what you know about big money investors and their lawyers?
In response to some of the posts about claiming rebates, for now Revel has said that all you have to do is swipe your card. That could be subject to change, of course. I am not aware of any law against swiping someone else's card and playing for that person, as long as they give permission. You cannot legally present false identification, but you would not be doing that. Of course if you win a jackpot and have to sign a form, you are going to have some interesting discussions. Does anyone believe there is a legal issue here?
Quote: kvitlekhHow drastically would the EV change if a smaller denom machine were played with 800 units? Is it worth sacrificing some EV to lower variance in a promo like this?
You want volatility on a promotion like this. EV would drop significantly on a lower-denom game. You can use my tables to calculate how much.
Anyone know what the liability would be if the customer never used it at the original casino? I wonder if Revel considered this in their plans? I am willing to bet someone tries it.
*CRINGE* No wonder casinos hate AP's just the fact of talking about that kind of stuff makes us all look like criminals.Quote: BozAnyone think there are people out there having professional printers copying their $25 free play certificates and changing them to higher amounts? No way Revel would know the actual amount other casinos are offering a player and could not know what the barcode means. Wouldn't take much for this to happen with professional equipment.
Anyone know what the liability would be if the customer never used it at the original casino? I wonder if Revel considered this in their plans? I am willing to bet someone tries it.
I guess I'm thinking of this in the eyes of the serious AP's, people who really want to make money gambling. I think of a AP kind of like a magician. Sure he the magician wants to talk about magic and even let people know some of his small tricks. he wants to get the word out and make magic more popular even learn more. What we don't want is a masked magician revealing all the tricks especially right before the show, this is worth hundreds of thousands to some people. Some people make money in other ways so if the the casino changes things its no big deal to them. I say its great to talk about it and do all the math. I would just like to avoid cluing the casino in on every single trick up your sleeve. Now that we have pointed out how the casino may have a loop hole so individuals couldsome how avoid coming back all 10 or 20 times they may decide to make a specific rule against that. That may cut some people out or some other good opportunities.Quote: kvitlekhFeel free to PM me and rant all you want. And as dumbfounded as you are, I've done other promos many times that required me to use someone else's card with their pin number, and I've never had any problems.
any one that thinks they can get away with picking up 100k give me 78k upfront then you can make like 20 k
Quote: FeanorRevel just came out of bankruptcy. From what I understand, their creditors took over a large share of the company (83%?), and Revel now owes only about 250MM. I also understand that the current owners are planning on spending some to get Revel back on its feet. Now, I was told that there are seven $25 VP machines at Revel, for 5,208 total hours of play in July. If it takes 36 hours to make 45k and all machines are manned every hour, they lose 6.5MM. Sure, they can also lose some real money on other high dollar slots and even electronic table games, but 100% utilization is not going to happen anyway, so we will say max loss is 6.5MM. That is a terrible loss on a promotion, but of course they are also getting a bunch back from ploppies and intangible dollars of publicity. The bottom line is it seems extremely unlikely that they are going to go back into bankruptcy before this thing ends. Who are these "people with lots of experience in the financial field?"
Abe, your post concerns me. What difference does it make if you are an AP legally? How does that in itself provide cover for them to withold a promised rebate? I can see them putting in the 48 hours between redemptions rule, but rollover from week to week is going to be at 6 AM on a Monday morning, so if you lose the chance to do two weeks at once then, you haven't really lost THAT much. In terms of banning VP on the rebated free play, again that seems a little rough legally. "Free play" and its limits are somewhat well defined at Revel. Can you elaborate at all on what you know about big money investors and their lawyers?
In response to some of the posts about claiming rebates, for now Revel has said that all you have to do is swipe your card. That could be subject to change, of course. I am not aware of any law against swiping someone else's card and playing for that person, as long as they give permission. You cannot legally present false identification, but you would not be doing that. Of course if you win a jackpot and have to sign a form, you are going to have some interesting discussions. Does anyone believe there is a legal issue here?
The first paragraph reads like something a Revel marketing executive would come up with. The second paragraph reads like someone who has little practical experience with AP inside casinos.
The third paragraph has a complicated question, but it is always best to have identification matching the player's card in the machine.
If Revel decides to yank someone's 100k in FP, I think there will be a lawyer involved/gaming commission complaint nearly every time, and it will be a losing situation for all parties.
On the plus side, Revel is about to have the biggest winning month in AC's history.
Quote: AxelWolfI guess I'm thinking of this in the eyes of the serious AP's, people who really want to make money gambling. I think of a AP kind of like a magician. Sure he the magician wants to talk about magic and even let people know some of his small tricks. he wants to get the word out and make magic more popular even learn more. What we don't want is a masked magician revealing all the tricks especially right before the show, this is worth hundreds of thousands to some people. Some people make money in other ways so if the the casino changes things its no big deal to them. I say its great to talk about it and do all the math. I would just like to avoid cluing the casino in on every single trick up your sleeve. Now that we have pointed out how the casino may have a loop hole so individuals couldsome how avoid coming back all 10 or 20 times they may decide to make a specific rule against that. That may cut some people out or some other good opportunities.
any one that thinks they can get away with picking up 100k give me 78k upfront then you can make like 20 k
Giving someone your card is a magic trick that shouldn't be revealed?? This isn't sawing a woman in half, it's just handing a piece of plastic to another person. If this is your super secret AP move, then go get a real job. Every husband/wife I know that plays at the casino together is apparently a David Blaine in disguise.
Who really cares? You can read (or give out) millions of dollars in valuable information and still be broke. Many of the posters here are living proof. The guys who make the money are the ones that get up early, plan stuff out, recruit trustworthy people, and don't shoot off all their money on other things in between. The actual "gambling" is the easiest part.
I just saw an "internal use only memo" that was in plain site, that informs all employees they must wear a gigantic "gamblers wanted" button at all times -- and they do mean all employees. Even the security guards and people wearing suits have to wear this tacky, small-grapefruit-sized button that has three ridiculous red-seven slot reel symbols on it. It could not clash more with Revel's modern, minimalist aesthetic.
Checked into a room earlier today. One of my sinks was stopped up, and the minibar was completely empty. Tried to call "guest services" to inform them, and despite my "estimated wait time of two minutes," I was on hold for 20 minutes before giving up and heading to a different casino to gamble.
Lol... this place is really going to shit.
Something a marketing exec would come up with? "Max loss is 6.5MM. That is a terrible loss on a promotion." I guess you're referring to the discussion of Revel's finances, but those are just the facts, and we need to know them if we are considering credit risk. If you'd like to deposit funds with the Wizard, I will as well and I'll sell you a 6 month CDS on Revel (no, Michael, I don't actually expect you to act as clearing on a third party wager).
What problem do you have with the second paragraph? For the record, I sincerely doubt that you have more "practical experience with AP inside casinos" than I do. I have been an AP for years and I know many of the posters on this board personally. I have corresponded with them and I have met them in the field. I have quizzed Bob Nersesian on various legal issues time and again, just to make sure I know exactly what my rights are.
Your comment on the third paragraph, predictably, adds nothing. You state an absolute tautology and refuse to weigh in on the law.
Quote: sodawater
Lol... this place is really going to shit.
It's really pretty amazing what they've done wrong. There's a restaurant that looks like a food truck. I think they even cook the food in the truck. But you don't order at the truck, it's a full-service restaurant (albeit, in the middle of a hallway). Who screws up a food truck???
I don't even know what would be able to save the property at this point. It's clear that the Revel name is toxic, and that the property will need help with marketing and promotions in order to compete with the other properties in AC. The property itself would be an upgrade for Tropicana, and might be interesting to Caesars (as a Horseshoe) or to Penn National or Pinnacle. Of course, it'd be perfect as an MGM if they could get licensed in NJ. I think it'd also be interesting as a Foxwoods. The Mohegan Sun owns Resorts AC, how great would it be if Foxwoods bought Revel (maybe with MGM involved, like in CT).
Quote: rdw4potusIt's really pretty amazing what they've done wrong. There's a restaurant that looks like a food truck. I think they even cook the food in the truck. But you don't order at the truck, it's a full-service restaurant (albeit, in the middle of a hallway). Who screws up a food truck???
I don't even know what would be able to save the property at this point. It's clear that the Revel name is toxic, and that the property will need help with marketing and promotions in order to compete with the other properties in AC. The property itself would be an upgrade for Tropicana, and might be interesting to Caesars (as a Horseshoe) or to Penn National or Pinnacle. Of course, it'd be perfect as an MGM if they could get licensed in NJ. I think it'd also be interesting as a Foxwoods. The Mohegan Sun owns Resorts AC, how great would it be if Foxwoods bought Revel (maybe with MGM involved, like in CT).
agreed... really the physical building is the only thing this place has going for it. all other areas, mainly the gaming setup and customer service, are not salvageable.
someone who knows what he is doing needs to buy this place, completely redesign the interior of the property, from the hotel lobby to the casino floor. then there needs to be a completely new system of management, marketing, and customer service. they need to take out all these ridiculous restaurants and make entirely new dining options.
my best idea is for the companies behind borgata to buy it. they could rebrand it as borgata beach.
Quote: FeanorAs many years as I have been coming to these boards and posting, the level of stupidity and condescension from some quarters never ceases to amaze me.
Something a marketing exec would come up with? "Max loss is 6.5MM. That is a terrible loss on a promotion." I guess you're referring to the discussion of Revel's finances, but those are just the facts, and we need to know them if we are considering credit risk. If you'd like to deposit funds with the Wizard, I will as well and I'll sell you a 6 month CDS on Revel (no, Michael, I don't actually expect you to act as clearing on a third party wager).
What problem do you have with the second paragraph? For the record, I sincerely doubt that you have more "practical experience with AP inside casinos" than I do. I have been an AP for years and I know many of the posters on this board personally. I have corresponded with them and I have met them in the field. I have quizzed Bob Nersesian on various legal issues time and again, just to make sure I know exactly what my rights are.
Your comment on the third paragraph, predictably, adds nothing. You state an absolute tautology and refuse to weigh in on the law.
Fair enough. The comment about a "max loss" reminds me of the ill-fated 2-1 blackjack promotion at IP, where marketing executives decided that if hold is x and 2-1 blackjack gives y, then the hold under the promotion is x - y. I have no comment about Revel's finances, although I do not think the risk to the player is high. The whole promotion is extremely complex, and it can't be described by some rudimentary machine hours x VP machines available calculation. It is possible they could fare significantly better than your number, or significantly worse.
As to the rest, you will not go to jail for any of the stuff you described. I would elaborate more on potential risks but I was too impressed by your AP resume. I doubt I could add any information that your collective (you, the many posters on this board that you know personally, and Bob Neresian) doesn't already know, since you have been an AP for years. Knock em' dead.
Maybe I'm soft, but I respect that. I'm not fooled into thinking it's out of the goodness of their heart, but it certainly is a risky marketing device. How many times is the prevailing wisdom something like "if they only admitted they made a mistake instead of fill in the offense". We'll they've done that. I have no problem with giving the Revel another shot at my business. Of course if comps don't get better then it would be hard for me to buy into any pitch for a third time. There are also myriads of sayings referencing leopards and their spots, fool me once, once a cheater, etc etc.
Quote: BozAnyone think there are people out there having professional printers copying their $25 free play certificates and changing them to higher amounts? No way Revel would know the actual amount other casinos are offering a player and could not know what the barcode means. Wouldn't take much for this to happen with professional equipment.
Anyone know what the liability would be if the customer never used it at the original casino? I wonder if Revel considered this in their plans? I am willing to bet someone tries it.
I've wondered about something similar with turning in players cards(for tier match bonuses) because it would be almost as easy for people to remove someone's name and put their own on a high tier card. I spied a note at GN AC where it stated to copy the players cards and check expiration. How can they legally check whether the cards were legit I really have to know. How can 2 competing casinos share this information, even if some illegal activity takes place, while protecting player privacy.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThey will make a lot of money off this. Do any of you really think most people will know how to properly leverage this promo? Slim is my guess.
I'm still betting on the week being split making it almost impossible to redeem them all by all. Monday-Wednesday and Thursday-Sunday each getting half, for example. To be really devlish, they randomly divvy up the people so even husbands and wives can't redeem at the same time. I'm just really suspicious due to the terms where people will lose the money, then have to wait to actually see the offer. It's just room for a catch, which may not exist, but could unless the official terms denounce this idea.
One reason the card in the machine is not important is because people forget their cards all the time. They play for an hour, get upset over losing(or excited over winning) and leave forgetting their card is in the machine. And there are also people who play without a card. they are recreational gamblers or perhaps they have a big brother fear of having their play tracked(I've heard it all)
Now how fair would it be if I accidentally left my card in the machine and then you sat down and won a huge jackpot, not bothering to check if my card was in there. And then the casino said no payout because some other players card was accidentally left in.
Or how fair would it be for me to get a call from the casino saying I owe taxes because the guy who played after me won a big jackpot and my card was still in the machine. SO, no the card in the machine is not a big issue on jackpot awards.
Quote: darkozIf u are playing on someone else's card and win a large jackpot award, the casino pays you regardless. The card in the machine is not an issue. They will ask if its yours for ease of paying you but that's all. Your state identification is whats important.
One reason the card in the machine is not important is because people forget their cards all the time. They play for an hour, get upset over losing(or excited over winning) and leave forgetting their card is in the machine. And there are also people who play without a card. they are recreational gamblers or perhaps they have a big brother fear of having their play tracked(I've heard it all)
Now how fair would it be if I accidentally left my card in the machine and then you sat down and won a huge jackpot, not bothering to check if my card was in there. And then the casino said no payout because some other players card was accidentally left in.
Or how fair would it be for me to get a call from the casino saying I owe taxes because the guy who played after me won a big jackpot and my card was still in the machine. SO, no the card in the machine is not a big issue on jackpot awards.
I mentioned tier match offers or meant to anyways. Sorry I wasn't clear about it, but rephrased.
And if so, does their e-blackjack accept freeplay? I'm assuming their e-roulette wouldn't as most casino's don't however the Golden Nugget in AC does have an e-roulette that accepts freeplay.
I doubt they would change how the freeplay is awarded. If they get millions of customers which is clearly what they want, how would you feel if every week for twenty weeks you had to wait on an insanely long line to redeem your freeplay as millions of people return week after week for what is most likely going to be just a few hundred dollars per person.
The negative aspects of waiting repeatedly in line would kill any value of such a promotion. They will most likely keep their current system for ease of customer use.
Is it playing a low-stakes high-return machine, e.g. 9/6 JoB, or is it better to play a random reel slot machine?
I'm asking because a mathematically inclined friend maintains it is better to play the reel machine in most cases, because the EV of the 9/6 JoB machine is assuming you hit the royal; if you don't hit the royal, he says the expected return of the JoB is less than a random reel machine.
He wants me to pose the following question to the forum:
If given a choice of playing $100 in a JoB machine or in a reel machine, which is the better play?
He maintains that the reel slot machine will return more money on $100 wagered because you are very unlikely to hit the royal flush on the JoB machine in such a small amount of spins.
Thanks
Quote: onenickelmiracleI've wondered about something similar with turning in players cards(for tier match bonuses) because it would be almost as easy for people to remove someone's name and put their own on a high tier card. I spied a note at GN AC where it stated to copy the players cards and check expiration. How can they legally check whether the cards were legit I really have to know. How can 2 competing casinos share this information, even if some illegal activity takes place, while protecting player privacy.
I played at a table with a swarm of 7 stars players at Harrah's AC last weekend. Those cards are pretty sweet. And there's a photo of the player on the back side. So, at that highest level it'd be really hard to just change the name on the card.
In terms of free play, it's a really interesting situation. Say I have $25 in free play from Harrah's, and I add two zeros to the end and take my doctored offer to Revel. Even if they do check with Harrah's somehow, isn't it in Harrah's' best interest to tell Revel to give me $2500?
Quote: kvitlekhAssuming you lost your 800 units, what is the best way (mathematically speaking) to play off the free slot play?
Is it playing a low-stakes high-return machine, e.g. 9/6 JoB, or is it better to play a random reel slot machine?
I'm asking because a mathematically inclined friend maintains it is better to play the reel machine in most cases, because the EV of the 9/6 JoB machine is assuming you hit the royal; if you don't hit the royal, he says the expected return of the JoB is less than a random reel machine.
He wants me to pose the following question to the forum:
If given a choice of playing $100 in a JoB machine or in a reel machine, which is the better play?
He maintains that the reel slot machine will return more money on $100 wagered because you are very unlikely to hit the royal flush on the JoB machine in such a small amount of spins.
Thanks
I think your friend is missing a step: If we're discounting the royal, we should also discount the highest line winner on the slot. Three red sevens isn't coming up in a small amount of spins, either.
There are two general schools of thought on freeplay. Some prefer to play VP at low stakes and try to win close to the face value of the freeplay. Others figure it's free money and take a shot at a huge win. In a promo like this, I personally would assume that I took my shot in July and then just recoup my losses during the following 20 weeks.
Quote: rdw4potusIn terms of free play, it's a really interesting situation. Say I have $25 in free play from Harrah's, and I add two zeros to the end and take my doctored offer to Revel. Even if they do check with Harrah's somehow, isn't it in Harrah's' best interest to tell Revel to give me $2500?
I would think if the Revel ever found out, they may very well call the DA. I'm not sure of the exact crime, but it might fall under some type of state fraud statute, falsifying business records, or false pretenses. Revel may very well send the offers to the issuing casino for verification (I think the casinos all cooperate on matters of security). I know everyone above is just joking, but I hope nobody out there is really considering trying this.
Quote: rdw4potus
I think your friend is missing a step: If we're discounting the royal, we should also discount the highest line winner on the slot. Three red sevens isn't coming up in a small amount of spins, either.
There are two general schools of thought on freeplay. Some prefer to play VP at low stakes and try to win close to the face value of the freeplay. Others figure it's free money and take a shot at a huge win. In a promo like this, I personally would assume that I took my shot in July and then just recoup my losses during the following 20 weeks.
Yep, you definitely can't ignore not hitting the jackpot combination on a slot machine if you are going to ignore the video poker Royal. Also without a Royal, 9/6 JoB usually still pays more back than a reel slot anyway!
Yep, I also would assume I took my shot too and lick my wounds grinding it back. Running a sim now to see how much freeplay you can expect to lose when cycling all 20 $5000 free play payments once on a dollar 9/6 JoB machine. My simulation is a ghetto setup and will take awhile though.
Quote: BhappyI don't think this prmo would get much traction. According to American Gamig Association survey 75% of casino goers spend less than $200 gambling (52% less than $100). Only about 10% spend more than $300. So a loss rebate given in 20 installments for most gamblers isn't going to amount much.
I agree. And I wouldn't structure it that way. I kind of wonder if they're smart enough to do it differently. I hope so. I would make it something like no less than $20/week but no more than 20 weeks. So if someone loses the minimum $100, they get $20/week through Labor Day weekend. As people lose more, the rebates are first stretched by time and then increased in denomination.
This promo will be abused by a few and ignored by most. Kind of like Revel overall, I suppose.
I would say the customer service this trip was more like Motel 6 than a high-end luxury resort, but that would be an insult to Motel 6. And I think if you call the Motel 6 front desk, you can actually get through.
Tried calling guest services three times today. Twice I gave up after 20 mins each of holding before anyone picked up the phone. The third time I waited 22 minutes to talk to someone. That's 60 minutes of hold time on Revel's own in-room phone system before I was able to talk to anyone at all.
I actually gave up trying to get someone to do something about the stopped-up sink and the empty minibar. Now I just can't wait to check out of this place.
Below, minute 21 of waiting for anyone at the hotel to pick up the phone:
Quote: sodawaterRevel is asking for a second chance! Well here I am in June, giving them play for free, without any promotions, and yet I could not feel less welcome.
I would say the customer service this trip was more like Motel 6 than a high-end luxury resort, but that would be an insult to Motel 6. And I think if you call the Motel 6 front desk, you can actually get through.
Tried calling guest services three times today. Twice I gave up after 20 mins each of holding before anyone picked up the phone. The third time I waited 22 minutes to talk to someone. That's 60 minutes of hold time on Revel's own in-room phone system before I was able to talk to anyone at all.
I actually gave up trying to get someone to do something about the stopped-up sink and the empty minibar. Now I just can't wait to check out of this place.
Below, minute 21 of waiting for anyone at the hotel to pick up the phone:
That's brutal! But just wait until they charge you for the minibar items:-)
Quote: rdw4potus
That's brutal! But just wait until they charge you for the minibar items:-)
I've been monitoring the guest account bill via the television like a hawk. Actually, last trip I was here, I was wrongly charged for a minibar item, and the front-desk clerk told me she would take it off my folio "as a one-time courtesy."
Apparently, it is a courtesy for a business to not charge you for something you didn't buy.
It puzzles me. All I can guess is the "lack of privacy statement" covers it somehow. I have no clue legally how they can check up on this, but it doesn't prove much me not knowing. I would never forge something either and especially knowing they would keep the evidence, but I wonder how it works.Quote: rdw4potusI played at a table with a swarm of 7 stars players at Harrah's AC last weekend. Those cards are pretty sweet. And there's a photo of the player on the back side. So, at that highest level it'd be really hard to just change the name on the card.
In terms of free play, it's a really interesting situation. Say I have $25 in free play from Harrah's, and I add two zeros to the end and take my doctored offer to Revel. Even if they do check with Harrah's somehow, isn't it in Harrah's' best interest to tell Revel to give me $2500?
Quote: sodawaterI've been monitoring the guest account bill via the television like a hawk. Actually, last trip I was here, I was wrongly charged for a minibar item, and the front-desk clerk told me she would take it off my folio "as a one-time courtesy."
Apparently, it is a courtesy for a business to not charge you for something you didn't buy.
I hate how lying and cheating is the means of business anymore and everything requires a fight either with management or the CC company. Anyplace you must pay with a CC, it just seems like you're giving them a license to steal when they couldn't do it if you had to actually authorize specifically and pay them more with another charge. Is there any such thing as a reputable, professional business anymore? End rant.
Quote: onenickelmiracleI hate how lying and cheating is the means of business anymore and everything requires a fight either with management or the CC company. Anyplace you must pay with a CC, it just seems like you're giving them a license to steal when they couldn't do it if you had to actually authorize specifically and pay them more with another charge. Is there any such thing as a reputable, professional business anymore? End rant.
yeah +1 on this
Awoke to the sound of rushing water from my bathroom. Turn on lights to see entire bathroom and hallway flooded. Culprit: a somehow self-starting, never-ending running toilet, which is strange because the toilet definitely wasn't running when I went to bed an hour ago. Had not even used toilet since mid-afternoon.
Currently waiting on housekeeping staff to locate a wet-vac. I expect a long night.
Hard to see in pic below, but entire floor is flooded:
Revel might lose money on the slot-rebate promotion, but they are definitely taking a bath on towels tonight. Approx. 20 of Revel's finest bath towels pressed into service in the last 20 minutes.
Quote: sodawaterUpdate 3:52 EDT
Revel might lose money on the slot-rebate promotion, but they are definitely taking a bath on towels tonight. Approx. 20 of Revel's finest bath towels pressed into service in the last 20 minutes.
They don't give you another room?
Run down stairs and put 100.00 on one hand of BJ I got a feeling lol.
And I would like to give a big thanks to Mike and Eliot for running some video poker numbers on this. I hope multiple members of this forum can hit them hard for a $100k Royal!
But also it's worth noting about some results you would expect if you are part of that unlucky ~75% that just burned a $100,000 hole in your pocket. You still have to gamble $100k through another video poker machine, $5k a week for 20 weeks. The lowest 9/6 JoB denomination they offer is dollars, so you you are wanting to maximize your recovery EV with the lowest possible variance, you only have 20,000 hands to grind it back. In 10k simulations of 20k hands each, the worst result seen was -$6855. The best result was $19,440. So, it's definitely still a swingy proposition! A winning or losing final result on grinding $100k in freeplay is quite dependent on hitting a Royal because if you fail to hit a Royal, you have less than a 4% chance to regain all of your freeplay into cash.
$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
ROI % -0.4560956
SD 4.4175419
Sim. Loss % 62.1900000
Sim. Loss w/no Royal % 96.1342326
% of Royalless Sims 60.7900000
% of Sims w/ < 40 quads 7.7700000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-6855.0 -2765.0 -1250.0 -453.4 1435.0 19440.0
$`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4989 1.0000 5.0000
$`Summary of Quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
26.0 45.0 49.0 49.4 54.0 77.0
$`Bankroll w/o Royal`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-6855 -3380 -2460 -2450 -1550 3010 3921
$`Bankroll w/Royal(s)`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-2880 895 2015 2643 3825 19440 6079
Histogram of your final win/loss after $100k coin-in (i.e. playing through all your freeplay):
And I am really sorry to hear your current troubles, sodawater.
Quote: rainmanThey don't give you another room?
Run down stairs and put 100.00 on one hand of BJ I got a feeling lol.
talk about "flushing" good money after bad
Quote: sodawatertalk about "flushing" good money after bad
I hate flushing good money after bad. That's why I recommend running downstairs and putting $100 on a hand of tiles.
I see we are in the same building again. Hello from a floor(s) above, sodawater.
Quote: tringlomaneReading about this promo is quite fascinating to me. Unfortunately, I am too poor/far away to really try this, but I am definitely interested in seeing how it ends up.
And I would like to give a big thanks to Mike and Eliot for running some video poker numbers on this. I hope multiple members of this forum can hit them hard for a $100k Royal!
But also it's worth noting about some results you would expect if you are part of that unlucky ~75% that just burned a $100,000 hole in your pocket. You still have to gamble $100k through another video poker machine, $5k a week for 20 weeks. The lowest 9/6 JoB denomination they offer is dollars, so you you are wanting to maximize your recovery EV with the lowest possible variance, you only have 20,000 hands to grind it back. In 10k simulations of 20k hands each, the worst result seen was -$6855. The best result was $19,440. So, it's definitely still a swingy proposition! A winning or losing final result on grinding $100k in freeplay is quite dependent on hitting a Royal because if you fail to hit a Royal, you have less than a 4% chance to regain all of your freeplay into cash.
$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
ROI % -0.4560956
SD 4.4175419
Sim. Loss % 62.1900000
Sim. Loss w/no Royal % 96.1342326
% of Royalless Sims 60.7900000
% of Sims w/ < 40 quads 7.7700000
$`Win/Loss Summary`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-6855.0 -2765.0 -1250.0 -453.4 1435.0 19440.0
$`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000
$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4989 1.0000 5.0000
$`Summary of Quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
26.0 45.0 49.0 49.4 54.0 77.0
$`Bankroll w/o Royal`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-6855 -3380 -2460 -2450 -1550 3010 3921
$`Bankroll w/Royal(s)`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-2880 895 2015 2643 3825 19440 6079
Histogram of your final win/loss after $100k coin-in (i.e. playing through all your freeplay):
And I am really sorry to hear your current troubles, sodawater.
WOW. This looks very detailed. I'm not a statistician, but is there a way to combine the original bankroll and the free credit bank roll together into one analysis/histogram?
Also, would you (or anyone else) know how this all would work with the blackjack digipit that they have at Revel? I am comfortable with basic strategy in blackjack but I don't even know where to look for the video poker machines (or the differences between them for that matter).
I knew from my first visit to the Revel that the only sure bet was on their bankruptcy! Too many managers... Too little guest service...
Thanks!
