Thread Rating:

Poll

12 votes (32.43%)
25 votes (67.56%)

37 members have voted

Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3630
April 10th, 2013 at 7:40:02 PM permalink
So what percent of gamblers do you think do this professionally and for a profit? I said 98-2. That's 2% that might be making money. I think I'm way high on that. I would say there are:

Less than 100 people in the WORLD that can play Blackjack full time for a profit
Less than 20 people in the WORLD that can play Craps full time for a profit
Less than 5 people in the WORLD that can play Roulette full time for a profit

My guess is that a fraction of 1% of people that play regularly do it profitably and many (not all) that tell you they do, do not.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7236
April 10th, 2013 at 7:48:47 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

So what percent of gamblers do you think do this professionally and for a profit? I said 98-2. That's 2% that might be making money. I think I'm way high on that. I would say there are:

Less than 100 people in the WORLD that can play Blackjack full time for a profit
Less than 20 people in the WORLD that can play Craps full time for a profit
Less than 5 people in the WORLD that can play Roulette full time for a profit

My guess is that a fraction of 1% of people that play regularly do it profitably and many (not all) that tell you they do, do not.

ZCore13



You're probably right about the Craps number. Maybe Roulette, too, depending on how much info about the European wheel tracking BS is true. But counting at BJ just isn't THAT hard. I would bet that there's 100 people in New Jersey who play for a profit. I guess we could quibble about what "professionally" means.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6270
April 10th, 2013 at 9:27:32 PM permalink
Yeah that number on blackjack is probably quite off. Also I don't think this forum would be 98-2 in the hole by the end of the year. If you sampled all CET diamond members instead, the 98-2 ratio would be closer to true.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
April 10th, 2013 at 9:31:21 PM permalink
I think he was claimin
Fighting BS one post at a time!
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 211
  • Posts: 4270
April 10th, 2013 at 10:12:41 PM permalink
Ok, hold on a minute. Somehow this statement has evolved into what percentage of gamblers are professional AP's. That number is immensely low. Far less than 1%. But that's not really what the initial comment was about. The quote was that 98% of the membership would lose money over a year as opposed to the 3 months that the current poll reflects. Here is why I believe that number is way off.

First of all, if you took results where everyone involved was playing negative expectation, there would still be winners over a period of a year. That's just the way it works. Negative expectation doesn't mean that every single person loses. It means over the long run everyone will lose. A years results do not necessarily fall into the long run category. I know people who are playing with an advantage, as much as 1-1 & 1/2 percent advantage that have endured year long losing periods. So likewise a few people playing at a small disadvantage would buck the trend and win over a less than long-term period, like a year. Especially when there are games with large payouts involved. I mean, if someone hits some big jackpot, that alone will be enough to put them in the black for the year regardless of what happens the rest of the year.

So there would be a few people playing a losing game that were still in the black. Now add to that a few AP's and you are well over the 2 % that was initially stated. Now while there aren't but a fraction of a percent of AP's in the general population, I believe just from those that I know, that it is significantly higher than that on this site. I earlier stated the number of AP's participating on this site wasn't near what it is on sites devoted entirely to AP play, but it is still much higher than the general gambling population. Certainly enough to push the number of people in the black after a year well above 2%.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3630
April 10th, 2013 at 10:31:57 PM permalink
To make it clear, here is what I'm saying:

Maybe 2% of the people on this site would be a winner after 1 year of regular play. I say that because people on this site are probably better educated and a higher level of gambler than the general public.

Way, way less than 2% of regular gamblers win after a year of play. I know first hand this is true and have every statistic you can think of to prove this point. It's part of my job.

A year of regular play IS the long run. Almost nobody wins, trust me.

You are believing too many stories if you think otherwise. The people you think have a 1 - 1 1/2 percent advantage over the house and aren't winning over a year long period of regular play most likely don't have the advantage they think they do. They are either mis-reading hole cards, mis-counting AP blackjack or something else of that nature. I year of regular play is a HUGE sample size. In most cases, it is the long run.

And just a normal non AP player that plays regularly 4 hours a day, 5 days a week. 90 hands an hour since most regulars that try and win money that I've known don't play at full tables. That's 93,600 hands. At just a $5 bet with just a 1/2 percent advantage that's an expected loss of $23,400. And that's with only an average $5 bet. And that's the best table game in the house. It just doesn't happen that people win. I swear to you that I'm not lying. It does not happen.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
April 10th, 2013 at 11:00:44 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

The quote was that 98% of the membership would lose money over a year as opposed to the 3 months that the current poll reflects.

Fighting BS one post at a time!
OzzyOsbourne
OzzyOsbourne
Joined: Jul 10, 2012
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 184
April 10th, 2013 at 11:04:08 PM permalink
I usually spread 10-125 when i play shoes (or more accurately two hands of 125) and 25-200 in DD. I'm up 2000 this year at blackjack, after losing 1600 my last session in one shoe at a 10 dollar table. It was an absolute nightmare and the first time in 350~ hours of blackjack play i have seen the running count get to 30. the highest I can ever remember previously seeing was 27 in another shoe which I also got crushed on.

Anyway not even one deck had been played and the RC was 12. I start betting 25. a lady comes and plays so i start playing two hands of 50. count was at 18 with 4.5 decks left. I keep losing and the count keeps climbing. Lady also keeps losing and finally leaves at a running count of 25 with about 3.5 decks left. i keep buying in for 2 or 300 bucks at a time. You can tell the dealer feels so bad and so does the pit boss. When i started betting two hands of 100 he whispers checks play. At one point the pit boss comes over and is genuinely rooting for me to win. dealer has a 4 up. At this point im betting two hands of 200. on one hand I had doubled on a soft something and gotten a 10 for no help and the other stiff i stayed. the dealer has a 7 under (for 11) and I just yell NO!!! he pulls a 4 for 15 then another 4 for 19, not only to beat both hands and put a 1200 swing the casinos way, but that last 4 made the running count 30. the pit boss honestly seemed upset that this happened and never came back to my table til i left. on the final hand i had two 250 bets and two shitty hands and took insurance, which thankfully the dealer had it. other than that session this year has been great! :)
casino's money disappears the execs worry when the wizard is near He turns tears into joy Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
April 10th, 2013 at 11:12:29 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

To make it clear, here is what I'm saying:

Maybe 2% of the people on this site would be a winner after 1 year of regular play. I say that because people on this site are probably better educated and a higher level of gambler than the general public.

Way, way less than 2% of regular gamblers win after a year of play. I know first hand this is true and have every statistic you can think of to prove this point. It's part of my job.

A year of regular play IS the long run. Almost nobody wins, trust me.

You are believing too many stories if you think otherwise. The people you think have a 1 - 1 1/2 percent advantage over the house and aren't winning over a year long period of regular play most likely don't have the advantage they think they do. They are either mis-reading hole cards, mis-counting AP blackjack or something else of that nature. I year of regular play is a HUGE sample size. In most cases, it is the long run.

And just a normal non AP player that plays regularly 4 hours a day, 5 days a week. 90 hands an hour since most regulars that try and win money that I've known don't play at full tables. That's 93,600 hands. At just a $5 bet with just a 1/2 percent advantage that's an expected loss of $23,400. And that's with only an average $5 bet. And that's the best table game in the house. It just doesn't happen that people win. I swear to you that I'm not lying. It does not happen.

ZCore13



Expected loss of 93,600 hands at $5 per hand and -0.5% EV is not 23,400. It's $2,340. Given a standard deviation of 1.0 (Blackjack is higher than that, but can't be bothered to find it right now), 2 stand devaitions is:

+$720 to - $5,399.

I'd expect over 2% of people to be in profit based on chance alone. Flip those numbers for a positive EV (which an AP would have).

With craps and a decent amount of odds, a lot more people would be net winners after a years worth of intensive play.

Most people aren't putting in 20 hours per week.

Winners happen.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
April 10th, 2013 at 11:22:05 PM permalink
I've made 6 bets this year, and won 4 of them, including a good (as percentage of bankroll) win on the superbowl. I doubt I'll bet much this year.

I've never left Vegas up.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

  • Jump to: