VLADIMIR POZDNYAKOV, AND J. MICHAEL STEELE Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut.

It appears to offer some advantage to a group of players on any game that offers opposing wagers such as red/black, big/small, banker/player, etc.

and they observe the game before placing any bets."

For those who do not have a PHDH as I do, please allow me to elucidate.

Or perhaps put it in a context you will understand : Chart the table before playing, DORK *

* Usually uttered by one of my students : John Patrick.

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Martingale.html

I'm not sure what part of that paper you read to imply an advantage, but the only actual instance of "advantage" is directed toward computational efficiency.

Clearly the title implies waiting before playing, yet statistically this shouldn’t matter in a random game. However, the paper implies that it does matter if some team members wait and play a certain way. This is often considered to be the gambler’s fallacy.

The concept of pattern matching (or mismatching) and then betting is interesting. But how do we apply it as a group for profit?

Are these professors trying to find the next “parando’s paradox” (which is said to be useless in real play) or are they on to something?

To be clear, in probability theory, a martingale is a model of a fair game where knowledge of past events never helps predict future winnings. It does not refer to doubling your bet with each loss as most on this forum might assume.

Quote:gamblinggrant

Clearly the title implies waiting before playing, yet statistically this shouldn’t matter in a random game.

The fallacy of "waiting times" is not that much about the randomness of the game. It is about the statistical independence of each event.

The papers scope is about Markov chains, which isn't a sequence of independent events.

sorry, the formulas looked like jack-off chains instead of Markov chains to me.....Quote:gamblinggrantI am wondering if anyone here can help me make sense of this document written by JOSEPH GLAZ, MARTIN KULLDORFF,

VLADIMIR POZDNYAKOV, AND J. MICHAEL STEELE Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut.

It appears to offer some advantage to a group of players on any game that offers opposing wagers such as red/black, big/small, banker/player, etc.

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/MCPatterns4.pdf

John Patrick is a brilliant man that wears Markov chains around his neckQuote:Buzzard" As before, these gamblers arrive sequentially,

and they observe the game before placing any bets."

For those who do not have a PHDH as I do, please allow me to elucidate.

Or perhaps put it in a context you will understand : Chart the table before playing, DORK *

* Usually uttered by one of my students : John Patrick.