gamblinggrant
gamblinggrant
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
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February 24th, 2013 at 8:24:43 PM permalink
I am wondering if anyone here can help me make sense of this document written by JOSEPH GLAZ, MARTIN KULLDORFF,
VLADIMIR POZDNYAKOV, AND J. MICHAEL STEELE Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut.

It appears to offer some advantage to a group of players on any game that offers opposing wagers such as red/black, big/small, banker/player, etc.

Whom the Gods Would Destroy They First Mock
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
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February 24th, 2013 at 8:43:52 PM permalink
" As before, these gamblers arrive sequentially,
and they observe the game before placing any bets."

For those who do not have a PHDH as I do, please allow me to elucidate.

Or perhaps put it in a context you will understand : Chart the table before playing, DORK *

* Usually uttered by one of my students : John Patrick.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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February 24th, 2013 at 10:16:28 PM permalink
The term "martingale" means something different to mathematicians than it does to gamblers.

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Martingale.html

I'm not sure what part of that paper you read to imply an advantage, but the only actual instance of "advantage" is directed toward computational efficiency.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
gamblinggrant
gamblinggrant
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
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February 25th, 2013 at 7:04:14 AM permalink
Thank you Guys,

Clearly the title implies waiting before playing, yet statistically this shouldn’t matter in a random game. However, the paper implies that it does matter if some team members wait and play a certain way. This is often considered to be the gambler’s fallacy.
The concept of pattern matching (or mismatching) and then betting is interesting. But how do we apply it as a group for profit?

Are these professors trying to find the next “parando’s paradox” (which is said to be useless in real play) or are they on to something?

To be clear, in probability theory, a martingale is a model of a fair game where knowledge of past events never helps predict future winnings. It does not refer to doubling your bet with each loss as most on this forum might assume.
Whom the Gods Would Destroy They First Mock
MangoJ
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
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February 25th, 2013 at 12:47:21 PM permalink
Quote: gamblinggrant


Clearly the title implies waiting before playing, yet statistically this shouldn’t matter in a random game.



The fallacy of "waiting times" is not that much about the randomness of the game. It is about the statistical independence of each event.
The papers scope is about Markov chains, which isn't a sequence of independent events.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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February 25th, 2013 at 1:59:51 PM permalink
Quote: gamblinggrant

I am wondering if anyone here can help me make sense of this document written by JOSEPH GLAZ, MARTIN KULLDORFF,
VLADIMIR POZDNYAKOV, AND J. MICHAEL STEELE Department of Statistics, University of Connecticut.

It appears to offer some advantage to a group of players on any game that offers opposing wagers such as red/black, big/small, banker/player, etc.

http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Publications/PDF/MCPatterns4.pdf

sorry, the formulas looked like jack-off chains instead of Markov chains to me.....
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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February 25th, 2013 at 2:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" As before, these gamblers arrive sequentially,
and they observe the game before placing any bets."

For those who do not have a PHDH as I do, please allow me to elucidate.

Or perhaps put it in a context you will understand : Chart the table before playing, DORK *

* Usually uttered by one of my students : John Patrick.

John Patrick is a brilliant man that wears Markov chains around his neck
Each day is better than the next

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