strictlyAP
strictlyAP
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:20:41 PM permalink
im sure some people on here will say it serves me right but i just blew out over 25k and set myself back over a year in terms of ap play
I was playing at a local casino and noticed a dealer completly flashing a hold card almost every time- i ran to the bank pulled out most of my roll and headed back as fast as I could- sat down bought in table max of 2500 and lost the first 6 hands in a row while seeing her card , im so sick right now
first three hand got 18 19 and 19 in blackjack 20 and 20- didnt hit even thuogh it killed me, and didnt surrender so I didnt blow cover
fourht hand 83 vs 6 with a 9 in the hold double pull a 8 dealer gets 20
fifth hand 66 into a 5 and ten underneath, split get a 5 double get 4 second 6 get a 3 double pull a7 dealer gets 18 next two hands 17 into an 18 and 16 into a 6- with four underneath, hit got a ten didnt matter- next hand dealer blackjack and hnestly forget the rest, how to lose 25k in 10 minutes
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:24:47 PM permalink
Overbetting, anyone? Happens to the best of us, advantage or no. If you sweat $25K on a advantage play, that's probably more than your bankroll allows. Been there, brother...sorry for your luck.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:25:59 PM permalink
anyone know what the ev is when seeing the dealers hold card in bj?
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:28:34 PM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

anyone know what the ev is when seeing the dealers hold card in bj?

Depends on how much cover you use. Theoretically, you can have a 13% advantage. But most practically, it is around 10%.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
EvenBob
EvenBob
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:32:05 PM permalink
Hole carding in the long term has positive EV. In
the extreme short term its the toy of variance, as
you just found out.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:33:46 PM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

anyone know what the ev is when seeing the dealers hold card in bj?



Considering "Double Exposure" BJ variant, probably not much more than 10%. And since you were trying to stay covered, it's likely less than 10%. Sorry about your loss.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/double-exposure/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/
sodawater
sodawater
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January 16th, 2013 at 9:57:54 PM permalink
I think you did the right thing.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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January 16th, 2013 at 10:02:01 PM permalink
You should have bet about 10% of your BR per hand. Maybe you overbet it, but it was a good bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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January 16th, 2013 at 11:46:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You should have bet about 10% of your BR per hand. Maybe you overbet it, but it was a good bet.



Don't forget to resize your bets! When betting with a small edge you can get away with resizing on a per-buy-in or per-sessions basis, but if you are really betting 10% you need to resize every single hand.

Furthermore, if the edge is 10%, then 10% of BR is an overbet. Don't forget to divide the edge by the variance to get the correct Kelly number. I'm not sure, off the top of my head, what the variance of a single hand is when hole-carding but it's got to be fairly high (I'd assume that you are splitting and doubling more often). Off the top of my head I'd guess that with a 10% edge, the right bet is closer to 6 or 7 % of bankroll.

Also, when betting this much of your BR, you need to make risk-averse plays. It is absolutely not correct to split or double in close situations with a bet that large. Honestly, it is going to be very difficult to figure out a correct strategy on the fly -- controlling variance becomes much more important than maximizing EV when you have that large of a percentage of your BR on the line and multiple correlated bets (through splits/doubles, or playing multiple hands).

I'd probably just spread to 3 hands with 1.5 to 2% of my BR on each hand, not make risk-averse plays, and resize bets fairly frequently (whenever it's comfortable to do so with the chip size being used). This is obviously not optimal, but, without time to run simulations, I'd suspect that this would perform fairly well, and it gets rid of the requirement to make difficult calculations at the table.
sodawater
sodawater
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January 17th, 2013 at 12:00:28 AM permalink
It's not like he was going to be able to play with this star dealer every day or any guarantee she would keep flashing the hole card. So I don't think Kelly betting really applies here. I think taking a huge shot with as much of your bankroll as you can muster with a ~10% edge that could disappear at any time is the best way to play it.

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