The Poll, the bet: Keyser or Mission146?

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

December 31st, 2012 at 8:58:26 PM permalink

Quote: MrV
It's about time for Keyser to weigh in on the issue and to make his intentions known.

He said this on the 29th.

"Mission,
I jokingly wrote the above information. No where did I accept your bet. At the time, I even referenced bet trade as being a better option."

What more is he supposed to say.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Ardent1

Ardent1

Threads: 5
Posts: 168

Joined: Dec 19, 2012

December 31st, 2012 at 9:40:10 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
He said this on the 29th.

"Mission,
I jokingly wrote the above information. No where did I accept your bet. At the time, I even referenced bet trade as being a better option."

What more is he supposed to say.

EvenBob, you are quoting him AFTER the fact as he was back-pedalling as fast as he could. The revelant quote(s) is at the TIME of the so-called bet.

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

December 31st, 2012 at 11:42:13 PM permalink

Quote: Ardent1
EvenBob, you are quoting him AFTER the fact as he was back-pedalling as fast as he could. The revelant quote(s) is at the TIME of the so-called bet.

He wanted to what Keyser had to say about this,
thats what he said. Live with it..

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Ardent1

Ardent1

Threads: 5
Posts: 168

Joined: Dec 19, 2012

January 1st, 2013 at 8:21:18 AM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
He wanted to what Keyser had to say about this,
thats what he said. Live with it..

Again, you have wrong timeline. And yes, it appears you either can't understand this or won't understand this and have chosen to live with it.

rdw4potus

rdw4potus

Threads: 80
Posts: 7237

Joined: Mar 11, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 1:58:24 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
It should be 100% and its not even close. As
I said thats why written contracts were invented.
No misunderstanding, no denials.

This written exchange has an offer, and acceptance, and a stated value. Bob, this IS a contract:-)

"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 2:31:57 PM permalink

If you see a contract in Keyser's answer, you're on LSD.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

thecesspit

Threads: 53
Posts: 5936

Joined: Apr 19, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 2:34:09 PM permalink

I've read the evidence twenty seven times.

Keyser is welching on a bet.

Maybe he'll learn not to be so evasive and sarcastic, and give a straight answer. But "Sure. Send me the money" sounds damn well like taking the action offered.

Maybe he doesn't care. The defence from him is weasel words. Welching on a bet is the action of a person who probably has other nasty little habits.

I am sure my opinion means little, of course. Keyser had plenty of time before the election and after to make it clear "he was joking". He's probably smarting from the bath he took on inTrade.

Mission probably will in future make sure that any bets on a forum as marked as "Booked", which I've noticed the Wizard does to follow up when some one accepts his action (or he assumes it is accepted...)

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 2:47:13 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
I've read the evidence twenty seven times.

Keyser is welching on a bet.

Not according to him. When Mission first brought this
up after the election I asked Keyser in an email if he
was going to pay. He didn't even know what I was
talking about. He didn't say hell no, or no way, or
screw him. He said 'Huh?'

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

24Bingo

24Bingo

Threads: 23
Posts: 1348

Joined: Jul 4, 2012

January 1st, 2013 at 2:53:18 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
If you see a contract in Keyser's answer, you're on LSD.

I see one in Mission's, and so should Keyser have. He was one of the most frequent posters in that thread. The idiot defense isn't going to fly.

The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

thecesspit

Threads: 53
Posts: 5936

Joined: Apr 19, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 3:02:58 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Not according to him. When Mission first brought this
up after the election I asked Keyser in an email if he
was going to pay. He didn't even know what I was
talking about. He didn't say hell no, or no way, or
screw him. He said 'Huh?'

His faulty memory for making bets is his problem, not mine, and certainly shouldn't be Mission146's.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

Mosca

Mosca

Threads: 191
Posts: 4140

Joined: Dec 14, 2009

January 1st, 2013 at 4:38:10 PM permalink

If Romney would have received 320 electoral votes, would Keyser have returned Mission's money? We'll never know, of course. But we can guess.

A falling knife has no handle.

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 5:05:09 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
His faulty memory for making bets is his problem, not mine, and certainly shouldn't be Mission146's.

I wonder what he did till he you old ladies to run his
life for him. Ya'll are worse that my old granny with the
pointing bony finger..

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 5:07:09 PM permalink

Quote: Mosca
If Romney would have received 320 electoral votes, would Keyser have returned Mission's money? .

Keyser has Mission's money?

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Mission146

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

January 1st, 2013 at 5:14:33 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Keyser has Mission's money?

Keyser doesn't have any of my money. He's basically asking if Romney had hit 320 Electoral Votes and I had shot a PM to Keyser to the effect of, "OK, what's your address and name so I can send you this $50 Money Order," would Keyser have refused stating he made a joke?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

thecesspit

Threads: 53
Posts: 5936

Joined: Apr 19, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 5:38:09 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
I wonder what he did till he you old ladies to run his
life for him. Ya'll are worse that my old granny with the
pointing bony finger..

I don't know, perhaps he didn't have his little brother fighting his wars for him before.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 6:08:05 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
"OK, what's your address and name

He wouldn't have known what you were referring to.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 6:10:12 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit
I don't know, perhaps he didn't have his little brother.

He's 20 years younger than me. Y'all make me remember
why I don't do prop bets on the net.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

bigpete88

bigpete88

Threads: 23
Posts: 351

Joined: Mar 8, 2011

January 1st, 2013 at 6:30:10 PM permalink

Quote: Mission146
I appreciate that and declined. I really wanted the vote to establish that I haven't been an @$$hole to Keyser and have good reason for thinking that he accepted my proposition. While I will personally not enter into another wager with Keyser, I will take him on good faith that he didn't think there was a bet (as slightly better than 1/3 voters do not think there was a bet) and will consider this matter resolved.

1. Majority thought that it was a bet

2. Minority thought that it was not a bet.

3. Mission decided to drop this matter.

P.S. Let's move on to +EV wagers and other issues

thecesspit

Threads: 53
Posts: 5936

Joined: Apr 19, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 7:25:27 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
He's 20 years younger than me.

Wow, you don't recognize sarcasm or metaphor do you? But you do when know exactly when Keyser was making a throwaway comment, either though other people didn't. Interesting, that isn't it.

Quote:
Y'all make me remember
why I don't do prop bets on the net.

Because you don't like to be called a welcher when you disclaim all knowledge of accepting a bet?

Or when the other party suddenly has "no memory"? I recall Regan did the same thing once...

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 7:47:52 PM permalink

Quote: thecesspit

Because you don't like to be called a welcher when you disclaim all knowledge of accepting a bet?
.

Here's a pic of Cesspit after he's had his med's. He's
just getting started on another day of making a pain
in the rear of himself on the net. It fills his empty
life.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Keyser

Keyser

Threads: 35
Posts: 2106

Joined: Apr 16, 2010

January 1st, 2013 at 8:59:29 PM permalink

Now, to clear some things up. This is absurd.
Earlier in the thread, Rw4Potus tried the same game.

Quote: Rw4Potus

Quote: Keyser

I should probably clear things up for you regarding Ohio.

Roughly 30% of the people have already voted in Ohio. The early voting has Obama up roughly by ten points 53% to 43%

However, in the remaining 70% of people yet to vote, Romney is up 50% to 45%.

So let's look at the math per 1k voters. In the early voting Obama wins roughly 159 votes to Romney's 129 votes.

However in the remaining 70% of people yet to vote, Romney wins 350 votes to Obama's 315.

The end result: Romney wins 479 votes to Obama's 474 votes per 1,000 votes

The undecided will likely break for Romney, since he out scores the president on other internal polls. Source for the above: Rasmussen

Conclusion: Romney probably wins Ohio.

Wager?

I responded with the following:

Quote: Keyser
It's part of an audio clip on Rasmussen.

Regarding wager: Yes, I've been on Intrade. They are offering me better odds than you. :)

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/11186-decision-2012/61/

Now, if I turned down Rwdpotus, then why would I have given you the time of day? It appears that you tried the same thing in another thread, but I simply chose to ignore you in that thread as well.

If you really need the $25. then I can loan it to you in two weeks when I'm in LV or I can buy you a burger so that you don't have to hold that sign up all day ;)

-Keyser

Mission146

Mission146

Threads: 142
Posts: 16832

Joined: May 15, 2012

January 1st, 2013 at 9:11:18 PM permalink

Quote: Keyser
Now, to clear some things up. This is absurd.
Earlier in the thread, Rw4Potus tried the same game.

It's not, "Trying a game," it's offering a bet. That I was seriously offering you a bet and you jokingly accepted, (good faith) has nothing to do with trying to run any kind of a game. This is a gambling website, I probably qualify as a gambler, thus, I wanted to have a gamble.

Furthermore, his post specifically had to do with the results in Ohio whereas mine had to do with the outcome of the Election. You clearly felt that Romney was going to win the election with 320 (or more) Electoral Votes, so my premise was, "Okay, put some money on that, or revise your statement."

Quote:
Now, if I turned down Rwdpotus, then why would I have given you the time of day? It appears that you tried the same thing in another thread, but I simply chose to ignore you in that thread as well.

Well, you didn't ignore me the second time around, unless by, "Ignore," you mean, "Responded directly to while quoting." If that's what you mean by ignored, then yes, you ignored me in the latter thread.

Quote:
If you really need the $25. then I can loan it to you in two weeks when I'm in LV or I can buy you a burger so that you don't have to hold that sign up all day ;)

-Keyser

Your generosity knows no bounds. JFTR, I could give a crap about that $25 even if it had been unanimously voted that it was a bet. I just sent The Wizard $25.00 for the money that I threw into the pot on the WoV Picks/Game Bet with no chance of winning it, and I also told The Wizard to go ahead and donate my winnings from Golden Balls Game 1 to the charity of whom I forget the name, and that was $50.

I think you were joking about the burger, though, I found that amusing.

In any event, we're okay in my book. I'd need your signature in the blood of a slaughtered virgin lamb to enter into a wager with you at this point, but I have no problems with you. I have my doubts, but enough people voted against my position in this thread that I'll take you on good faith.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

24Bingo

24Bingo

Threads: 23
Posts: 1348

Joined: Jul 4, 2012

January 2nd, 2013 at 1:06:25 AM permalink

Quote: Keyser
Now, if I turned down Rwdpotus, then why would I have given you the time of day? It appears that you tried the same thing in another thread, but I simply chose to ignore you in that thread as well.

His particular wager wasn't available elsewhere.

Quote: Keyser
If you really need the $25. then I can loan it to you in two weeks when I'm in LV or I can buy you a burger so that you don't have to hold that sign up all day ;)

You know damn well it's not about the money. The fact that you pretend even for a second that it is I'd say shows a guilty conscience, further drawing credence from your idiot defense. I think I'm going to follow MakingBook's lead and refer to welching as "Keysering" from now on.

The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.

Switch

Switch

Threads: 12
Posts: 934

Joined: Apr 29, 2010

January 2nd, 2013 at 4:26:19 AM permalink

We're now at 50 votes in - 68% 'Yes' and 32% 'No'.

How about a settlement that reflects the overall views of the members here? That would seem like a fair compromise and would hopefully wipe the slate clean for everyone.

So, 68% of $25 = $17.

Even though I voted 'No' I felt that there was enough of a gray area to give some weight towards a bet. The $17 would reflect the decision on the site, is not a lot of cash either way, and would hopefully exonerate all parties involved.

P90

P90

Threads: 12
Posts: 1703

Joined: Jan 8, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 6:58:17 AM permalink

Quote: Mission146
This is a gambling website, I probably qualify as a gambler, thus, I wanted to have a gamble.

But still just a website. On a regular, non-gambling-related forum, this wouldn't even be a question. And of course it would not be a question on a dedicated gambling forum either.

I would argue that WoV is a website about gambling, but, outside of dedicated threads, not a gambling website. Not a website for gambling, like, say, betting exchanges are. So it falls on that gray line where ambiguity remains - some people gamble here, others don't.

Although Keyser's recent posts seem to point towards his thinking it was a bet. But it's a question of his state of mind and thus something we'll never know for sure.

Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama

MakingBook

Threads: 24
Posts: 496

Joined: Sep 19, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 8:07:52 AM permalink

texasplumr & lucyjr both welched on bets made within the HB Challenge thread. Of course they both disappeared from the forum after losing, same as Keyser.

Add Keyser to the list, and we stand at 3 welchers.

We'll see if any of the WoV Picks Game players "KEYSER" the Wizard by not paying, disappear from the forum, then return in a month or two, and say the bet was only a joke, or some other lame excuse.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

P90

P90

Threads: 12
Posts: 1703

Joined: Jan 8, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 8:26:19 AM permalink

There is a difference between making recorded wagers in dedicated gaming threads and casually using betting language, and you know it.

If I were in Keyser's shoes, I'd pay up, but he was just unclear enough that he can not be called on his word, for it was not given.
That is assuming he never made real money wagers on this forum before.

Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama

Buzzard

Threads: 90
Posts: 6814

Joined: Oct 28, 2012

January 2nd, 2013 at 8:50:49 AM permalink

The fact that Keyser won't pay up just to shut people up, says more than I ever can. Looked up DEADBEAT in Wikipedia and
Kysrer's picture was there !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

MakingBook

Threads: 24
Posts: 496

Joined: Sep 19, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 9:07:49 AM permalink

To be fair, Keyser isn't the only person that make's a bet, then "keysers out"

I haven't booked a bet since September, and I still have 5 Keysers on my paysheet, with unpaid debts of:
Keyser #1 (-$2,387)
Keyser #2 (-$790)
Keyser #3 (-$699)
Keyser #4 (-$398)
Keyser #5 (-$297)

Each week I hear, promises, explanations, and excuses from all 5 of these Keysers.

No man's promise is worth his cash payment.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Buzzard

Threads: 90
Posts: 6814

Joined: Oct 28, 2012

January 2nd, 2013 at 9:10:46 AM permalink

But they still have money to bet with somebody else, don't they ? And will scream like stuck pigs if the new book is a day late or a dollar short !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

MakingBook

Threads: 24
Posts: 496

Joined: Sep 19, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 9:26:55 AM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
But they still have money to bet with somebody else, don't they ? And will scream like stuck pigs if the new book is a day late or a dollar short !

You know this is true!

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Buzzard

Threads: 90
Posts: 6814

Joined: Oct 28, 2012

January 2nd, 2013 at 10:53:26 AM permalink

I also know KYSER #1 could pay easier than 2 thru 5 and is least likely to !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

MakingBook

Threads: 24
Posts: 496

Joined: Sep 19, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:07:49 AM permalink

Quote: Buzzard
I also know KYSER #1 could pay easier than 2 thru 5 and is least likely to !

You are correct! Man, you're good!

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Mosca

Mosca

Threads: 191
Posts: 4140

Joined: Dec 14, 2009

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:16:14 AM permalink

Although I voted that it was a bet, I strongly disagree that Keyser welched. Reason: I don't have to be right. The only one who can call that is Mission, and he has specifically stated that he does not consider himself welched on. I can think it was a bet, based on what I saw and read, but I might not be right.

IMO, to continue to make that implication in public, including using "keyser" as a synonym for non-payment of debt, is a violation if forum rules pertaining to personal insults.

Anyone can take what he or she wants from this entire incident. But the two principals have come to agreement, and that agreement absolves Keyser of non-payment of a bet. It specifically does so. Therefore Keyser is not a welcher.

A falling knife has no handle.

P90

P90

Threads: 12
Posts: 1703

Joined: Jan 8, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:39:26 AM permalink

In Keyser's place, like I said before, I would offer to pay if Mission insists, but state clearly that I had no intention of making such a wager. That is, of course, assuming he really didn't mean to.

In Mission's place, I would acknowledge the offer and decline it, emphasizing winning as the point, and reminding Keyser to be clear the next time.

That would be the way such issues are resolved between men.
It is, of course, far too late.

Resist ANFO Boston PRISM Stormfront IRA Freedom CIA Obama

MakingBook

Threads: 24
Posts: 496

Joined: Sep 19, 2011

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:44:31 AM permalink

This topic of this thread is my area of expertise. If anyone shared my professional experience,
I'm certain they would see what I see very clearly.

It's well known where I stand on this matter. I won't comment further.

"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871

Mosca

Mosca

Threads: 191
Posts: 4140

Joined: Dec 14, 2009

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:51:15 AM permalink

Quote: MakingBook
This topic of this thread is my area of expertise. If anyone shared my professional experience,
I'm certain they would see what I see very clearly.

It's well known where I stand on this matter. I won't comment further.

I understand, and I voted as you did. But the principals have come to an agreement, and they disagree with us. And the agreement is in Keyser's favor, and he is therefore absolved. And because of that, and because Mission SPECIFICALLY says that Keyser did not welch, then he didn't, and he cannot be called a welcher in the forum without violating forum rules.

A falling knife has no handle.

EvenBob

Threads: 441
Posts: 28679

Joined: Jul 18, 2010

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:52:39 AM permalink

Quote: Mosca
The only one who can call that is Mission, and he has specifically stated that he does not consider himself welched on..

But that doesn't count. What counts is thinking you're right and
acting like 4th grader about it.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Buzzard

Threads: 90
Posts: 6814

Joined: Oct 28, 2012

January 2nd, 2013 at 2:15:32 PM permalink

Quote: MakingBook
You are correct! Man, you're good!

Hey, been around gamblers, tin men, deadbeats, bookies 50+ years. The stories are all the same, only thing changes are the names
and the faces !

Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

Wizard
Administrator

Wizard

Threads: 1493
Posts: 26502

Joined: Oct 14, 2009

January 3rd, 2013 at 7:28:15 PM permalink

I think the temperature of this thread is getting too high. While I still say that "sure" was an acceptance of the bet, just on principle I'll give Keyser the benefit of the doubt that he didn't see it that way. Mission has said the same thing, more or less.

I'd like to suggest a compromise. Keyser should donate the $25 to a charity mutually agreeable to both parties. I'd suggest our usual Three Square. Other business disputes have been settled in this way before. This should completely clear Keyser's name (it certainly will for me) and the money will go to a good cause.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

EvenBob