Don't Come, varying odds up and down

I had an interesting idea for a betting strategy to implement at my local casino, Cache Creek. It involves just a don't come bet, laying different odds multiples depending on the state of my bankroll. On the one hand, it increases the odds bet a couple of times at different amounts of net winnings; on the other hand, it also increases the odds bet a couple of times at different amounts of net loss. So, it has elements of two main categories of betting systems: increasing on wins and increasing on losses. So, it has the "back half" of the D'Alembert system, but increases on wins rather than decreases, as does the D'Alembert.

My strategy is not based on wins or losses, but rather bankroll benchmarks.
Here's how it works:

start with $200
when a point is established, make one $5 don't come bet
if it goes to a point number, lay single odds ($10 4/10, $9 5/9, $6 6/8)

if/whenever the bankroll gets over $250 or under $150, lay double odds ($20, $15, $12)
if/whenever the bankroll gets over $300 or under $100, lay 3, 4, 5X odds ($30 for all)

So, if I'm winning more than $50, I increase the variance with more odds, hoping to win even more. If I lose back to under $250, I go back to single odds.

If I'm losing more than $50, I increase the variance, hoping to come back. Of course, this increases the probability of busting, but it also increases the probability of coming back. Yes, this is what Sam Grafstein calls "chasing losses", but I am only talking about $200, which I am fully prepared to lose. If I come back up to over $150, I go back to single odds.

I created a WinCraps auto-bet file to test this out. The parameters:

starting bankroll $200
sessions end when:
1) bankroll less than $35 (can't make $5 + $30)
2) 200 rolls and last bet resolved
10,000 sessions

avg. num. rolls 197
avg. num. bets 53.5

avg. bet handle $523

avg. net result -$3.62

median net result -$3

mode of net result +$1 to +$7

standard deviation $90

avg. house advantage 0.69%

winning sessions 4844

breakeven sessions 47

losing sessions 5109

number of busts 701

lost more than $100 1228

lost more than $50 2892

won more than $50 2574

won more than $100 935

won more than $150 477

won more than $200 242

biggest win $438

So, it provides almost a 49% chance to break even or better, well under a 10% likelihood of busting and a 1-in-4 chance of winning at least 1/4 of my bankroll. Of course, things can go south pretty quickly - one session last only 42 rolls - but that's true of almost any strategy. There's always a sequence of rolls out there that will hammer any strategy, as well as a sequence that will suit it to a tea.

I tried it out last night. (Next post)
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Went out to Cache Creek last night, waited for the current shooter to finish, bought in for $200 and tried my don't come, variable odds strategy. Fortunately, I was able to squeeze in next to the dealer, with good access to the "Don't Come Bar 12" box. See initial post in thread for details.

The Midnight Skulker gave me the idea of playing don't come instead of don't pass to avoid betting directly against the shooter. Also, the DC box is pretty obscure, and some players probably aren't even aware of it.

After the comeout established a point, I put my $5 down on DC, and a nine showed. The dealer moved my cheque behind the 9 and I gave him two reds and said, "Nine dollars odds don't nine". He changed a red, heeled my $9 and gave me a yellow back. "Seven out!" He put out two reds, stacked them up with the winnings on top, and set them in front of me. He also opened his hands a couple of times, like they do when they go off shift or move to another position. So I had two reds, four yellows and two more reds in the stack. This happened twice more on 5 or 9, so I was up $30. When the next DC point was six, I gave him $6 and he bridged the yellow across the two reds. I won that one, too, and on my next DC bet I threw out a "two-way 12". I was thinking that if a 12 showed I would win my DC and the dealers and I would each get $31. It didn't show. I won a couple more bets before I finally lost one, then won a couple more. I was now over $50 ahead, so I moved to double odds, laying $20, $15 and $12 to win $10. I made another two-way 12 that didn't win. Finally, I got a 12 on my DC comeout; the dealer didn't pay me, so I pointed to it. He just pointed to the very clearly displayed "Bar 12". Duh!! I felt like an idiot! I've been playing craps since about 1978, but I don't think I've ever played the don'ts before.

Just one time, I made a DC bet while I already had one behind a point. Naturally, the next roll was a seven, so I won the $20 but lost the $5. I got up as much as $80, so I put my original stake in my pocket and played with the rest. The table had gotten very quiet and several people had left as the seven-outs piled up. I switched to a two-way 2 next DC, so I would win both bets, but still no dice on that. I tried a two-way trey, giving us a little better chance to win, but still no dice. In almost two hours' play, I only won a single DC comeout, on a 3, and I lost only a couple of times to a 7 or 11. After shooters knocked off a couple of my points, I fell back below +$50 so went back to single odds. Some people who had left came back to play some more. I had been declining to roll the dice, but finally when they came to me I decided to switch to pass. I tossed a seven, an eleven, then set a point, took single odds and sevened out.

I went back to DC, hovering around +$50, but I started to get bored. When I had $30 plus five yellows left I tossed the yellows and a red to the dealers and left with $25 plus my original. So, I won $40, left a $10 toke and another $5 in failed dealer bets.

Nobody said a thing to me about betting the "wrong" way.

It was a pretty interesting experience, so maybe I'll try it again next time.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Interesting, thanks for sharing your results. I'm also a don'ts player. I make either a $5 DP with max odds, and one DC with max odds (5x), or a $5 DP with two $5 DCs with $30 backing up each line/come bet. ($30 works as lay odds for every point number).

I find the variance to be tolerable, but I have only played two sessions! The first time I won $250. The second time I lost $130. I occasionally shoot from the don'ts. I usually will throw a couple bucks on the field for the dealers. That way they win if I roll craps or a outside number (except 5 of course), which is what I'm going for.

My bankroll is $500 for every session. That is not my total bankroll.

Congrats on your winning session with Don't Come. Too funny about the 12.

I hardly ever play the dark side, but every good craps table should have DC and DP as part of their repertoire. Certainly the table will not cheer you when you win, and some people will downright just leave the table if you win alot.

At the casino I play at, there was a young guy (a regular) who just challenged me when I threw, proudly throwing his money on DP and Martingaling. I was quite happy when I hit him up for a few hundred before he got his last one, and I was okay with that.

Quote: teddys

Interesting, thanks for sharing your results. I'm also a don'ts player. I make either a $5 DP with max odds, and one DC with max odds (5x), or a $5 DP with two $5 DCs with $30 backing up each line/come bet. ($30 works as lay odds for every point number).

My bankroll is $500 for every session. That is not my total bankroll.

Well, of the two I would prefer the former, as you minimize the $$ exposed to the comeout disadvantage. I was quite lucky on my comeouts, only a couple of 7/11; in fact, I had bloody few comeout decisions at all, but did have two bar 12s.

For a $5 DP with 3,4,5 ($30) odds, the ev for 60 bets is -$4.21 with a SD of $193. When you are making one DC bet, there will be a DC bet about 80% of the time and two of them .8^2 = .64, so you have about -$10.25 ev with the additional variance yielding something in the neighborhood of $301 SD (estimated as SD of one bet times sqrt(2.44*60) ). For the one DP, one DC with 5X odds, you have about -$7.50 ev, roughly $303 SD. Your ev/sd ratios are .0340 and .0247. With the 3 bets, 3,4,5X odds, you're paying more for a tiny bit less variance.

As a shortcut way of simulating this, I just took 60 * 1.8 = 108 and ran 50,000 sessions of 108 $5 DP with 5X odds. I used a $500 bankroll and a $250 extendable win goal.

parameter
mean bet handle	$2713
mean net result	-$4.77
standard deviation	$275.40
mean house advantage	0.17%
winning sessions	26836
breakeven sessions	54
losing sessions	23110
number of busts	4272 (8.4%)
reached win goal	19170 (38.3%)
reached 108 bets	26558 (53.1%)
biggest win	$1357

Cheers,
Alan Shank

Wow, that is awesome! Certainly, thank you for doing that. It's interesting that the mean net result is $-4.77, when the E.V. should be -$7.50. (I am correct in saying -E.V. for a session=number of pass/come bets*avg. bet*1.4%?) I assume that is because of the stop loss and win goals. Or is this really a genuine method to lose less money?

BTW, I am thinking of tracking come-out rolls and point decisions next trip. I plan on using a baccarat card and one of those pens to track how many times the shooter passes, doesn't pass, comes, doesn't come, etc. Basically keeping track of how many line/come bets I make. I will share this info.

Quote: teddys

Wow, that is awesome! Certainly, thank you for doing that. It's interesting that the mean net result is $-4.77, when the E.V. should be -$7.50. (I am correct in saying -E.V. for a session=number of pass/come bets*avg. bet*1.4%?) I assume that is because of the stop loss and win goals. Or is this really a genuine method to lose less money?

There are a couple of reasons for the lesser average loss: 1) when a session ends with a win goal, it is almost always shorter than the 108 bets, which reduces the bet handle and hence the expected loss. 2) this particular sample showed an HA slightly lower than expected. You could call that a "good seed". >:-)

By far the greater effect is #1. The $7.50 was based on calculation, assuming always 108 bets, averaging out the different points.

As far as keeping track of all that stuff you mentioned, it's interesting but I caution you about drawing any conclusions from it. I think its value is going to be in comparing the results to expectation and then looking at your own results. IOW, did the rolls come in a pattern that favored your strategy or not. Here again, looking at the pattern after the fact should not tell you, "I should have switched at this point". How would you have known?
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Update: I played again this week, and charted my bets. I played for one hour, laying one $5 don't pass with $30 odds and two don't comes with $30 odds. I made 66 line/come bets in total, so my expected loss was $4.60 (They moved the dice pretty slowly). I won $85. I made one $5 (losing) field bet for the dealers.

Quote: teddys

Update: I played again this week, and charted my bets. I played for one hour, laying one $5 don't pass with $30 odds and two don't comes with $30 odds. I made 66 line/come bets in total, so my expected loss was $4.60 (They moved the dice pretty slowly). I won $85. I made one $5 (losing) field bet for the dealers.

Congrats!
I may or may not visit Cache Creek this week. I was thinking of perhaps laying double odds from the git-go and walking if I reach +$50.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

Congrats!
I may or may not visit Cache Creek this week. I was thinking of perhaps laying double odds from the git-go and walking if I reach +$50.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I just ran a WinCraps simulation of this, making one DC bet after a point is established, laying double odds and quitting if I got more than $50 ahead. It yielded 69.6% winning sessions, 21.1% busts ($200 bankroll), 68.0% reached the $50+ win goal. Overall mean outcome was -$3.23, median +$60, mode +59 to + 61. Of course, these results depend on actually quitting if you get more than $50 ahead, which I don't know whether I would do. Several of the sessions lasted just four bets, winning $15 each time and stopping. I don't know whether I would walk away with $60 after just a few minutes of play.

I ran the sim again using "equal to or greater" than $50 as a stop condition, and the percentage of $50+ nets was 70%, with an under 20% bust rate.

Here's another possiblity: if I get ahead $75, pocket my original stake plus $50 and play with $25, enough for one DC with double odds. If I lose, walk; else keep going until reaching +$100 or losing the $25.
Well, there are lots of options when you get ahead.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

interesting.

Are you sticking with 10,000 sessions, varying number of rolls per session?

Quote: odiousgambit

interesting.

Are you sticking with 10,000 sessions, varying number of rolls per session?

Yes, 10,000 sessions. The number of rolls varies considerably, because of the other stopping conditions, which are, the first of:

1. less than $25 left, i.e. cannot make a DC plus odds on 4/10
2. $250 or more in bankroll
3. 200 rolls and last bet resolved

When the count reaches 200 rolls, no more bets are made and the session ends as soon as there's no outstanding DC bet. The number of rolls in the re-run (see other post) varied from 11 to 224.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Quote: goatcabin

I just ran a WinCraps simulation of this, making one DC bet after a point is established, laying double odds and quitting if I got more than $50 ahead. It yielded 69.6% winning sessions, 21.1% busts ($200 bankroll), 68.0% reached the $50+ win goal. Overall mean outcome was -$3.23, median +$60, mode +59 to + 61. Of course, these results depend on actually quitting if you get more than $50 ahead, which I don't know whether I would do. Several of the sessions lasted just four bets, winning $15 each time and stopping. I don't know whether I would walk away with $60 after just a few minutes of play.

I ran the sim again using "equal to or greater" than $50 as a stop condition, and the percentage of $50+ nets was 70%, with an under 20% bust rate.

Whoops! Major screw-up! I had the minimum bet set to $10, so the results are really for $10 DC, double odds. I discovered the problem because some of the sessions lasted only six rolls, which is not possible with $5 DC, double odds.

So, I re-ran the sim using $5 minimum. The results look like this:

parameter
mean num. rolls	141
mean num. bets	22.7
mean bet handle	$347
mean net result	-$2.43
median net result	+$36
mode of net result	+$50 to +$51
standard deviation	$70
mean house advantage	0.7%
winning sessions	5757
breakeven sessions	26
losing sessions	4217
number of busts	242
lost more than $100	1188
lost more than $50	2638
won at least $50	4895
biggest win	$64

Actually, I like this picture better, as losing the whole $200 is very unlikely. Of course, the reduced variance means you don't win the $50 as often, but...

Here is the histogram of the net results from WinCraps:



Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan AKA goatcabin

Thanks for sharing.
Since your strategy is based on bankroll considerations …

From your analysis, wouldn’t the results be similar whether you chose DON’T Come or the DON’T Pass.
And since many crap players have difficulties in adapting to the DON’T Side of the game, wouldn’t your analysis also apply to the Pass Line or Come bets?

Thanks
Tinhorn Gambler

Quote: TinhornGambler

Alan AKA goatcabin

Thanks for sharing.
Since your strategy is based on bankroll considerations …

From your analysis, wouldn’t the results be similar whether you chose DON’T Come or the DON’T Pass.
And since many crap players have difficulties in adapting to the DON’T Side of the game, wouldn’t your analysis also apply to the Pass Line or Come bets?

Thanks
Tinhorn Gambler

Yes, I bet DC to not be directly betting against the shooter. Also, the Don't Come box is rather obscure, so people may not even notice. Another guy who places the darkside most of the time advised me on this.

Yes, the betting strategy is more-or-less independent of the kinds of bets. The results will vary, however, based on the edge and variance of the bets themselves. Pass/come should be almost identical to DP/DC.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Alan AKA goatcabin

The reason for my inquire is that the use of the DON’T Come bet strategy is very unique.
In fact, it is rare to see a straight DON’T Come player.
My guess-estimate that finding a straight DON’T Come bettor is about one-tenth of 1 %.

In the Las Vegas area, I know of only one local player that uses just the DON‘T Come bet as a strategy. However, his plan is one bet per shooter, making flat bets with no odds, using a up-progression on losses.

As we know, playing the DON’T Side is not very popular.
My guess-estimate is 2 % of players are primarily DON‘T Players, using a combination of DON’T Pass and DON’T Come bets.
And only 10 % of all Las Vegas crap players will switch between Right Side play and the DON’T Side.

So even though your DON’T Come strategy may not be popular, I believe it to be a viable method similar to Pass and / or Come betting.

The only issue I find with DON’T Come bets are dealer errors.
Such as … Not moving the bet, forgetting to payoff the Winning bets, error in paying the proper amounts. etc.

However, I believe these problems relate to the small area’s assigned to the DON’T Come bets …. which is out-of-line of sight for the dealers, along with the seldom use of DON’T Come bets.

Again, thanks for sharing.
Welcome to the DON’T side.

Tinhorn Gambler

Quote: TinhornGambler

Alan AKA goatcabin
In the Las Vegas area, I know of only one local player that uses just the DON‘T Come bet as a strategy. However, his plan is one bet per shooter, making flat bets with no odds, using a up-progression on losses.

I favor laying odds, since there is no house edge on those bets. The more of your money you expose to the house edge, the more you expect to lose.

Quote: TinhornGambler

So even though your DON’T Come strategy may not be popular, I believe it to be a viable method similar to Pass and / or Come betting.

The only issue I find with DON’T Come bets are dealer errors.
Such as … Not moving the bet, forgetting to payoff the Winning bets, error in paying the proper amounts. etc.
Tinhorn Gambler

It is certainly just as good as playing the right side. The dealers at Cache Creek when I played this way seemed quite comfortable with it; I watch my bets like a hawk, and at no time did they hesitate to pay me or pay me incorrectly.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

If one did play exclusively don't come, I wondor how much less exposure, based on dollar volumn, there is? Would it be equal to the chance of a seven, 16.67%??

Quote: DeMango

If one did play exclusively don't come, I wondor how much less exposure, based on dollar volumn, there is? Would it be equal to the chance of a seven, 16.67%??

Well, it depends on how many DC bets one makes. If you just made one DC bet at a time, there would be about 80% as many bet resolutions as passline resolutions. Although a point is established only 66.7% of comeout rolls, sometimes the DC is left unresolved, but gets resolved on the next comeout roll, which establishes a point and then another DC bet. I just did a study with come bets. Check out https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/1130-how-many-come-bets-is-too-many/5/ .
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Update. I played craps for an hour the other day. I laid one $5 Don't Pass with $30 behind and ONE Don't Come/$30 per "hand." The table was empty, and the dice moved fast, so I made 90 bets in total. My expected loss was $6.35. The better news is that the table was cold as Antarctica, and I made $270! The fact that I kept sevening out quickly probably led to my greater $ exposure. Can't complain, though.
----------------------------------------------------
Later, I played for another hour at another table. I made one $5 pass line and TWO $5 come bets per hand. (Yes, I know I was increasing my exposure but it was a controlled experiment). I made 106 bets in total for an e.v. of -$7.60. I lost $55.
---------------------------------------------------
I wonder what factors influence the amount of line/come bets that you make following a certain "system." The number of players at the table seems to have a lot to do with it.

Quote: teddys

I wonder what factors influence the amount of line/come bets that you make following a certain "system." The number of players at the table seems to have a lot to do with it.

Well, for any given line-bet strategy, it boils down to decisions per hour, which depends primarily on the number of rolls per hour, although for a single session the number of rolls/decision can vary quite a bit,too. The more players at the table, the more center bets, the more place bettors pressing or regressing, etc. the slower the game.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

What is the best way with the most minimal risk to Hedge a $6 or a $12 DP and or a DC bet from the 7 and the 11 on the come-out roll? Is there some sort of a hedge or a safe lay bet that may have a chance to actual make you a profit in the process of protecting your DP and or your DC bet? Does anyone ever lay all the point numbers on the come-out mixed with any type of bet or hedge bet to protect a don't pass and or a don't come bet? I am just trying to suggest maybe something "outside the box". There must be some math that works I would think!

Quote: joe57777

What is the best way with the most minimal risk to Hedge a $6 or a $12 DP and or a DC bet from the 7 and the 11 on the come-out roll? Is there some sort of a hedge or a safe lay bet that may have a chance to actual make you a profit in the process of protecting your DP and or your DC bet? Does anyone ever lay all the point numbers on the come-out mixed with any type of bet or hedge bet to protect a don't pass and or a don't come bet? I am just trying to suggest maybe something "outside the box". There must be some math that works I would think!

It doesn't exist. You cannot reduce the -EV on a bet by, "Hedging," using a bet with a greater or equal -EV.

If you wanted to protect yourself from losing money on the Come Out roll alone, then you could go DP with a lesser (but at least 1/4th) bet on, "Any Seven." In this event, the only results that actually lose money on the CO, taken alone, are Yo, (2/36, loses both bets), and the 12 (1/36, Pushes DP, loses on, "Any Seven.") In this case, the probability of you losing money on the CO is only 3/36, or 1/12, but the overall EV of the combined bet is worse than betting DP alone. You can still lose both bets aside from Yo, but it wouldn't be on the CO.

Likewise, you can make a Pass Line bet and then bet less (but at least 1/7th, or 2/15ths, depending on payout structure) on, "Any Craps." In this event, it is impossible to lose both bets on the CO, but the EV sucks compared to taking the Pass Line alone. You can also still lose both bets, just not on the CO, a point would have to be established+missed. In fact, a point having been established, losing both bets is the most likely result!

You could also go DP + "Any Seven," + "11," (betting a lesser amount on Yo than the DP, but at least 1/14th of DP + "Any Seven," bets-depending on payout structure). If you do this, then you will have to bet slightly more than 1/4th on, "Any Seven," because the 1/4th was designed to offset a loss on DP only whereas a, "Seven," would lose on DP + 11. In this case, only the "12," could actually lose money on the CO because, "Any Seven," and Yo lose, and DP pushes. The EV on the total bet might suck slightly less than the first option above (I might do the math later) because the HE on, "11," is better than that of, "Any Seven," on any paytable other than 14:1. The EV still sucks compared to DP only.

Finally, you could make a Pass Line bet in conjunction with a Field Bet. The EV is still going to be worse than Pass Line alone, but you could not lose both bets on the CO. In fact, this is the only option thus far presented in which you can WIN BOTH bets on the CO, which happens if you roll an 11. Unlike the DP Bets, you can also win a Field Bet and then go on to win your PL bet, if you establish/make a point of 4, 9 or 10. The EV is still worse than taking the PL alone, however, so keep that in mind.

I highly appreciate your explanation, but could you please leave out all that EV stuff please? See it does not matter to me what the EV is because it just doesn't matter. If I hedge $12-DP bet on a come-out roll with say a $1 Yo and a $3 any seven (which would of course be a $12 win if the 7 comes out). Better yet if I use a 3-way hop 7 for $3 that will pay $13 and then subtract the loss of the $1 Yo and I would be able to replace the $12-DP bet for the next roll. My point is here that the EV value meant NOTHING to me or to anyone else who bet this way on the come-out roll because no matter what the EV value is, the fact of life is that the $12-DP bet is protected from getting erased by a come-out 7. In fact, the $12-DP bet is also protected from the Yo because the $1 Yo bet would pay $15 if it hit and minus the $3 (hop 7) bet it would again equal $12 which is of course enough to reimburse the $12-DP bet. But the problem here is that it just costed me $4 to protect my $12-DP bet. My question without an answer that involves EV or "House Advantage" statistics is there any way to hedge my $12 or even $6-DP bet against some other bet that will not cost me any more than $1 or $2? There just HAS to be some "outside the box" math out there that even Einstein did NOT even think of?????

" There just HAS to be some "outside the box" math out there that even Einstein did NOT even think of????? "

E=MC2 I have always asserted that the " C " in that formula stood for CRAPS !

Quote: joe57777

My question without an answer that involves EV or "House Advantage" statistics is there any way to hedge my $12 or even $6-DP bet against some other bet that will not cost me any more than $1 or $2? There just HAS to be some "outside the box" math out there that even Einstein did NOT even think of?????

When you hedge a bet, you usually eliminate variance of outcome - but you will pay for it with the additional house advantage of the additional bets.

There is simply no way to answer your question of "will not cost me more than $X" if one totally ignores EV. Because it's the very same concept.

Quote: joe57777

I highly appreciate your explanation, but could you please leave out all that EV stuff please? See it does not matter to me what the EV is because it just doesn't matter. If I hedge $12-DP bet on a come-out roll with say a $1 Yo and a $3 any seven (which would of course be a $12 win if the 7 comes out).

Wrong. You would lose $1.00 on the bet.

Quote:

Better yet if I use a 3-way hop 7 for $3 that will pay $13 and then subtract the loss of the $1 Yo and I would be able to replace the $12-DP bet for the next roll. My point is here that the EV value meant NOTHING to me or to anyone else who bet this way on the come-out roll because no matter what the EV value is, the fact of life is that the $12-DP bet is protected from getting erased by a come-out 7. In fact, the $12-DP bet is also protected from the Yo because the $1 Yo bet would pay $15 if it hit and minus the $3 (hop 7) bet it would again equal $12 which is of course enough to reimburse the $12-DP bet. But the problem here is that it just costed me $4 to protect my $12-DP bet. My question without an answer that involves EV or "House Advantage" statistics is there any way to hedge my $12 or even $6-DP bet against some other bet that will not cost me any more than $1 or $2? There just HAS to be some "outside the box" math out there that even Einstein did NOT even think of?????

Craps math is a very fixed thing, and the great mathematical geniuses of all-time, which certainly doesn't include me, have not yet arrived at a combination of bets that do not lose more money in the long run than taking DP+Odds alone. DP + Odds is simply the best mathematical bet on the table.

I cannot ignore EV because all things gambling are about EV.

I think your main problem here is that you are just looking at protecting DP or PL on the CO. Again, you can do that, and I presented an option to you (Field + PL, Equal Amounts) in which it impossible to have your entire bet knocked out on the CO roll, however, the Field loses on a Seven, the two most likely points to be made (6, 8) and on another point more likely than 4/10 (5).

You want to take a negative EV bet, hedge it with a bet with a worse EV, and end up with a total bet with a equal/better EV than the original bet. It can't be done. You don't even have to do the math with the dice outcomes, just multiply the amount bet by the HE for each bet (expressed as a decimal, 11.11% = .1111, for example) and then look at the total assuming you bet the same on DP or PL as all bets combined in a DP/PL + One-Roll Prop Bet.

PL Only $10, $10 * 0.0141 = EV -$0.141

PL $5, Field $5 $5 * .0141 = EV -$.0705 + $5 * .027778 = EV -$0.13889 TOTAL EV: -.20939

You're better off to bet $10 on the PL. In fact, you lose nearly 50% MORE money betting the other way.

I know it doesn't seem that way, because you cannot lose both bets on the CO, can win both bets (11) and you can also lose the PL bet, but still come out ahead (2, 12), but that's the way of it.

I'm not telling you how to bet, though, it's your money, so bet as you like. I'm just saying that you cannot ask a Gambling Math question with the stipulation that the answer ignore EV because Gambling Math IS EV

Quote: Mission146

I think your main problem here is that you are just looking at protecting DP or PL on the CO. Again, you can do that, and I presented an option to you (Field + PL, Equal Amounts) in which it impossible to have your entire bet knocked out on the CO roll, however, the Field loses on a Seven, the two most likely points to be made (6, 8) and on another point more likely than 4/10 (5).

That is an extremely strong reason for laying a number protectively before the roll and going down on it after the DC has been established.

This is all to technical info. I thought I analyzed this game too much! What I am saying is that if a 4 or 5 is rolled and you want to lay the 4 or 5 what are the chances that the 4 or 5 will roll back to back? Probably over 100 rolls not too likely. One can EASILY slip in a DC bet in there probably MOST OF THE TIME! Surely enough to be able to win a nice profit at the end of those rolls. And I don't care what your EV shows is my point. Also if you guys are so technical with this please help me figure out our best way to bet that gives us the best chance to win over a real grind of about 3-4 hours. Please don't tell me to bet the pass line with the max odds because that is so not true. Because as many people say that if someone figures out a guaranteed way to win at least $1 each roll there would NOT be any more casinos left. Therefore if it was that easy then people would just bet the pass line with the max odds and win all of the time! And you know they do not win all of the time. NOT even close! In fact the Don't pass line with max odds is better and they do not even win all of the time. I know there are smart people out there that know a better math solution that can do better than the pass or don't pass line with max odds!!!!! Please anyone?

If you know there are smart people that can do mathemagic, you should probably ask them to do something more interesting/important than gain a small edge in craps.

Tip the dealers when you are playing. In my personal experience, they will be more likely to make a mistake in collecting your DC bets. That's where the edge is. If not, at least your money goes to them, and not the casino.

Quote: joe57777

And I don't care what your EV shows is my point.

If you don't care what the EV shows, then you don't care. I have already answered as to how you prevent yourself from losing x amount considering the CO roll alone, I would be happy to answer other specific inquiries, if you have any more.

Quote:

Also if you guys are so technical with this please help me figure out our best way to bet that gives us the best chance to win over a real grind of about 3-4 hours. Please don't tell me to bet the pass line with the max odds because that is so not true.

You're absolutely right, you should bet DP with max odds!

Quote:

Because as many people say that if someone figures out a guaranteed way to win at least $1 each roll there would NOT be any more casinos left. Therefore if it was that easy then people would just bet the pass line with the max odds and win all of the time! And you know they do not win all of the time. NOT even close! In fact the Don't pass line with max odds is better and they do not even win all of the time. I know there are smart people out there that know a better math solution that can do better than the pass or don't pass line with max odds!!!!! Please anyone?

It's not that easy. If the player plays fair and does not cap bets, then there is no mathematical way for the player to win in the long run. Any deviations above the EV will eventually approach the EV, which is negative. Variance can be on your side for an untypically long time, but that's about it. If you look at the majority of simulations over x rolls, there are usually some winners in the long run. Pick a system, run it through a simulator, 10,000 trials of x rolls, look at the number of players who profit vs. those who don't, that is your percentage chance of profitting, play the system, Pray to God.......or flat bet, doesn't matter.

There is no, "Win all the time," just ask the Blackjack AP's, who are actually playing at an advantage!

All I can say is if you keep believing there is NO WAY to win this game at least MOST of the time, then there will be no way to win for you. If there was NO WAY to win this game MOST of the time, then why be a FOOL and play the game? Fun or NO fun, who wants to lose money? It is NOT fun to lose money. It's like playing a sport, they say just have fun playing, but who wants to lose? It is fun when you win. Bingo too. They ask you "did you have fun playing Bingo?" And my answer would be No I did NOT have fun because I did NOT win ANYTHING! I do not gamble for fun Bingo included. But anyway, what is your EV on a number coming up two times in a row other than a 7? Also what is the chances of a 7 coming up 2 times in a row? Lastly, what are the chances of a point number being made on the next roll right after the come-out roll? If the chances are 90% that any number will NOT repeat, then I can beat the game of craps about 90% of the time!!!!!

For a session win, probably the best way to come out ahead is the oft-maligned Martingale strategy: whenever you're behind, bet enough (if possible) that a point win will cover your losses with at least a unit on top; whenever you get back ahead, or win while not behind, treat that as your new "even," and just bet the minimum (with full odds, of course). It's probably best to do this on the pass line, since the win on a point with 3-4-5x odds is a uniform 7x. Of course, when you lose, you'll lose every dime you brought to the table, but that's the price you pay. (If you play such sessions regularly, the few steep losses will come out just ahead of the many small wins; hence the strategy being "oft-maligned.")

Or if you want to win on any one come-out roll, you're onto something with your strategy: put 12 units on don't, 2 on yo, and split 6 between the three seven hops, then take full odds when a point comes up. This way the results are (assuming 15-to-1 on the yo and the hop sevens, 3-4-5x odds):

2, 3: +4 win.
4, 10: 2/3 chance of +40 win, 1/3 chance of -92 loss.
5, 9: 3/5 chance of +52 win, 2/5 chance of -92 loss.
6, 8: 6/11 chance +64 win, 5/11 chance of -92 loss.
7: +12 win.
11: +12 win.
12: -8 loss.

So you have an overall chance of winning of just over 70%. Of course, you've probably noticed that when you lose, you'll lose more than you win. You may think that's because I made the "mathy" suggestion of odds, but you'd be very wrong:

2, 3: +4 win.
4, 10: 2/3 chance of +4 win, 1/3 chance of -20 loss.
5, 9: 3/5 chance of +4 win, 2/5 chance of -20 loss.
6, 8: 6/11 chance +4 win, 5/11 chance of -20 loss.
7: +12 win.
11: +12 win.
12: -8 loss.

You could instead bet 1 on the yo and 3 on the sevens, which will narrow the gap considerably, increasing by four units wins on point and 2 or 3 and decreasing all losses by the same, so it's +8 or -16, but it will introduce a 1/12 chance - that is, on 7 or 11 - of breaking even, leaving just under a 62% chance of winning outright. But there's no way to close the gap completely; just like with the Martingale system, that's simply the price you pay. And since you can't close the gap, if you play this in "a real grind," you'll most likely have a losing session, just like that system will give you a losing career.

For some people, yes, gambling is entertainment. Sometimes a little uncertainty about the immediate future can be fun, and yeah, it's more fun when you win, but even when you lose, as long as you both have and lack some control. If you're so keen on winning, table games are probably not for you.

The fun thing that is unique with craps is that you can gamble in ways in which you will win more than half the time, but will lose more than you win. Any don't or lay better will tell you that.

And with craps, you get to choose your variance, and the casino alters the payback so that you pay more for higher variance. If you're a high variance person, then you bet the outside (a smarter bet is no-commission buy bet). If you're a low variance person then you hedge.

Odds of a point-point are 1:12 for the 4 and 10, 1:9 for the 5 and 9, and 5:36 for the 6 and 8.

The casino has the house edge built into every bet, the the edge is averaged over all bets.

How about this? Do you think I would be more successful playing the doey/don't for $5 and then ONLY playing the 4, 5, 9, or 10. In other words when the 4, 5, 9, or 10 become the point number, I then place 1x don't odds and wait for the 7. Or would I be better off to put $6 on the don't pass at random times throughout the round until I fill up the all the 6 box numbers with NO protection from the 7 or the Yo. Then as each of my $6 bets if were moved safely to their perspective numbers, I would place then immediately (if not sooner) place a $5 place bet on each of them GUARANTEEING me a profit on ALL 5 DC bets and my 1 DP bet. Which strategy after 2-3 hours would land me the MOST profit? (You guys must work for the casino, because you are ALL negative about winning this game of craps. Plenty of people on these forums have told me that they win on a consistent basis at least 85% of the time). So what is up with that?

Quote: joe57777

Plenty of people on these forums have told me that they win on a consistent basis at least 85% of the time). So what is up with that?

"Joe", it's like you are just trying to get people going with that kind of comment. Even the uneducated general public understands the house has an edge. There's no way you can be as deceived as you pretend.

So, turning that around, what's up with that?

Who on this forum has told you a thing like that? They're lying or very lucky, and probably well-known on this forum for often being wrong.

The first strategy you describe will not turn a profit over a long session. Of every 180 come-out rolls, you'll win on 44, lose on 31, and break even on the other 105. However, again, your losses will be larger than your wins (since that's how don't odds work), enough that you can't turn a session profit this way consistently. The second strategy you describe will also not turn a profit over a long session, simply because the minuscule profit you'll be guaranteed by your place bets will be offset by larger losses to the yos and sevens you'll encounter along the way.

You can eek out consistent session wins simply by pressing your bets after a loss, in the way I just described or a number of others. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you realize that when you do have a bad session, you'll lose your whole buy-in.

Are you programmed to just tell me that the house has the edge all of the time without the possibility of someone beating the game more than they lose the game? What is that saying "if you try something over and over expecting a different result" do they not call that "Insanity"? Therefore, if craps could NOT be beaten after being tried over and over would that not mean that someone experiencing this constant defeat but still playing craps be called "insane" for continuing to play craps? So then tell me, why do people bother playing a game they CANNOT possibly win at? For FUN? Is it FUN to lose money? Why not just invent a game that you could watch your money do some fancy trick before it disappears into the house's cash box? Or some other crazy form of entertainment to swallow up someones money? Their must be ways to win at craps NOT 100% of the time but at least most of the time if you have the right strategy and or math calculation or the casino would not get anybody to play it! There are people that play craps professionally and win MOST of the time. I am just trying to figure out what they do to turn the math in their favor at least about 75-85% of the time. Craps with NOT fold because people can beat it most of the time because there are people that CANNOT beat it most of the time and there are MANY other games at a casino for them to make money. Plus they have food, hotel, spa, etc... to help them take in money. But craps is a game that you have a decent chance to win but if this forum is not going to give me at least one of the answers instead of being so negative and on the casino's side and talking about meaningless EV, PV, Stevie calculations etc..., then I guess I need to visit other forums!!!!! Take Care!!!!!

Joe57777,

If any of us worked for the casino, would it not benefit us to say, "Joe, you can win all the time by hedging your DP with the Hops and a Yo bet!"?

The difference between the casino and any other form of entertainment is that you COULD win money, and you're also not operating at a fixed cost even if you do lose. If I buy a concert ticket for $100, then I have that and the gas it takes to get to the concert...etc. The casino is the same thing, except it is entertainment that you USUALLY (as opposed to always) pay for, and sometimes, the entertainment pays you.

I would like to meet these professional Craps players, and possibly borrow one of their lucky rabbit's feet.

You can win most of the time, however. Buy-in for $1,000, go to the Craps table, run the Martingale, if you win once, leave. Wins wil be near meaningless (if you start with the minimum) and losses will hit you for nearly the whole 1k, but the probability says you should win most of the time.

If you wish to leave this Forum because you don't like our answers, may I suggest, www.delusionalgamingforumsandsystems.net?

No one's saying you can't win most of the time. You can! There are many ways you can! You just have to be willing to endure commensurately steeper losses than wins. But if EV is "meaningless," what do you care?

If it were otherwise, yes, craps would fold. It doesn't matter how much money they're making off everything else; if craps were costing them money, they'd get rid of it, just like everything else. If there were a way to make it cost the casino money, they'd do everything they could to stop that, just like they stop counters. How is the rest relevant?

I am totally lost. What do these mathematically statements have to do with DICE SETTING ???