Craps, and the Dont pass line odds. good?BAD?
Now, If you were to lay dont pass bar ODDS, you would be adding $5 units to the bet that have no advantage to either the house or the player. This is because the even though the odds of you winning are 2/1 in your favor still, the payout on the DONT PASS BAR odds is only half of what you bet. $10 DONT PASS BAR ODDS pay only $5 when the point is 10. The true odds as we call them. So, each $5 unit of dont pass bar ODDS would have no advantage represented as a 1/1 andvantage.
Add the odds together to determine your new advantage OVER the house when laying DONT PASS BAR odds. one $5 unit with 2/1 advantage + one $5 unit with 1/1 advantage = $10 total bet with a total 3/2 advantage... If you put $10 in DONT PASS BAR ODDS on your $5 initial bet it would look like this, one $5 unit with 2/1 advantage + one $5 unit with 1/1 + one $5 unit with 1/1 advantage = $15 total bet with a 4/3 advantage. 2/1 + 1/1 + 1/1 = 4/3. So on and so forth up to max odds. In this case max odds would be $50 or ten $5 units (Table max odds on the DONT PASS BAR are detrmined by the odds bets PAYOUT, not the odds BET itself. $50 in DONT PASS BAR odds pay $25 when point is 10. $5 initial bet x 5times odds = $25 max payout) at max odds you advantage is down to 12/11.
You actually dive your advantage over the house down as you add odds to a dont pass bar bet. Is a $5 bet with a 2/1 advantage over the house better than a $55 bet with a 12/11 advantage over the house? It doesnt seem like it.
What is utter nonsense is for anyone who was going to make 11 line bets on the Don't and walk away, risking $55, to then decide instead to add 5X odds to all his bets to try and 'win more money', putting much more money at risk. Of course hardly anyone exists who plays as 'low roller' as that, but there are guys who risk more than they are comfortable with, hundreds more than they intended to gamble at that $5 table, adding free odds to their bets without shortening their usual time at the table [except those who go broke]
Its the DONT PASS (BAR 12) or in Reno DONT PASS (BAR 2).
You really a craps dealer?
For ten whole years?
This has to be accounted for. It is after a point is established that you may lay odds. Overall, when you include the required come-out roll exposure , the EV on the DP bet is negative.
Edit: In this situation, expected loss/gain in real dollars is more important than the house edge.
Q
"I do not understand why you should lay the odds on the don’t pass or don’t come bets."
Halfway down.
The Wizard
..."The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33.
So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents."...
Do not be so stuck on Edge only.
EV (expected value) and Variance is what a player should be into.
Edges don't matter for bets that lose. The edge only makes a difference on the paying event (the best losing bet is that one that is never made!)
Edges don't matter for people who end up with more money than they started with. (aka a win is a win is a win and even an idiot making stupid bets wins and walks away and never gambles again SOMETIMES).
Betting less frequently is a FAR superior method to not losing money compared to ANYTHING a math guy can come up with.
If you make sure your last win eclipses all of your previous losses and then can discipline yourself to stop betting, this is the easiest way to be a winner. The trick is the stopping part .. and saving up for your next big bet after those big losses.
What you need understand is the the DONT PASS LINE the exact oppisite of the PASS LINE. When one bet wins, the other loses in almost every situation. The only exception is a 12 on the COME OUT ROLL. 12 Loses on the PASS LINE, but its a push on the DONT PASS LINE, not a win. If the 12 was not a push on the DONT PASS LINE but actually won, the player would actually have an advantage over the house when playing the DONT PASS LINE. That is how slim the margins are in craps. This is because if the house has an advantage on all PASS LINE bets, and DONT PASS LINE were the TRUE exact oppisite(you got paid on a come out roll 12) logic dictates you would now have the advantage when playing DONT PASS LINE. Everything cannot be the exact oppisite and the house still maintain an advantage on both the PASS ans DONT PASS lines.
And yes, I am a craps dealer. And ive determined that many of you are NOT. Also many of you are very weak in you basic math skills. cept for that one guy!
So ive seen nothing here yet to oppose my point. Claimng that Laying odds on both a PASS LINE bet and DONT PASS LINE bet BOTH work to lower the overall house advantage makes no sense.
AFTER the point is established, all PASS LINE bets are at a disadvantage, and all DONT PASS LINE bets are at advantage. If adding odds to a PASS LINE BET lowers the houses advantage over you, then adding odds to a DONT PASS LINE must lower your advantage over the house. Logic dictates it.
Quote: AussieHow about you bet the don't pass and ill take your odds. Lets see who loses less?
In terms of absolute dollars, you wouldn't lose any less. After all, the bet is 0 EV, so in the long run it adds 0 to your total.
The point of taking odds is that you lose less per dollar bet. If you are comfortable making a $25 don't bet and not taking odds, then you are (presumably) happy with $25 in action per point. In that case, you should not have made the $25 don't bet. You should have made a $5 don't bet and taken odds. You are gambling with just as much money (so you are getting the same amount of excitement and entertainment), but you have cut your expected losses significantly.
Quote: yerdunAnd it's all because it's actually the lowest house advantage bet in the entire casino.
That is nonsense. It's not even the lowest house edge bet on the craps table, and there are other games which offer bets with MUCH lower house edges than anything in craps.
Quote:My point is don't expect anyone who works for a casino, or in the casinos best interest, to ever give you good solid info on playing the dont pass line. It's somewhat of a trade secret.
Haha... trade secret. Yeah, there is a dont pass line. You put your money there. TOP SECRET!!!!! No way to figure that one out.
If your not of the solution, your part of the problem.
youVE been served!
Quote: yerdunThe entire game of craps is set up to deture you from playing the don't. What happens when your shooting from the don't and you win??? We take your dice away. players are supposed to be treated like outcasts. There is a saying in the casino buisness "WE DONT CATER TO DONT PLAYERS". I dont hand you your winnings when your DONT COME bet wins. I put it a little box thats usually very far away from you and hope you throw your back out trying to reach it. Im not ever supposed to hand it too you. And it's all because it's actually the lowest house advantage bet in the entire casino. My point is don't expect anyone who works for a casino, or in the casinos best interest, to ever give you good solid info on playing the dont pass line. It's somewhat of a trade secret.
I'm a dice dealer also, - and we pretty much don't care which side you chose to play on. Why should we care?
We care if you play in the first place, and we care if you behave youself. We cater to ALL players who play with us, who give us consideration, and who are civil and well-behaved. AND we say the don't pass and the don't come are perfectly fine bets to make.
I also bring out winning DC bets all the way to the player through the DC on a seven out, as we may do as a courtesy.
We don't care if they play the DO or the DON'T, - it makes no difference.
We care if they play, and are good to deal to.
I would say that all professional dice dealers do not particularly care if you play the pass line or the don't pass, or make horn bets, or bet the C&E, or parlay your hardways bets, or whatever. That is immaterial. We care if you play, and if you behave youself.
Dan, I recently played at your house. The table was half-tabled, completely jammed up, and the dealers were dealing like dogs to service everyone's bets. I really respect the professionalism at Station Casinos, unlike many other places (even on the Strip) where they could care less about the players, and make snide remarks.Quote: PaigowdanI'm a dice dealer also, - and we pretty much don't care which side you chose to play on. Why should we care?
We care if you play in the first place, and we care if you behave youself. We cater to ALL players who play with us, who give us consideration, and who are civil and well-behaved. AND we say the don't pass and the don't come are perfectly fine bets to make.
I also bring out winning DC bets all the way to the player through the DC on a seven out, as we may do as a courtesy.
We don't care if they play the DO or the DON'T, - it makes no difference.
We care if they play, and are good to deal to.
I would say that all professional dice dealers do not particularly care if you play the pass line or the don't pass, or make horn bets, or bet the C&E, or parlay your hardways bets, or whatever. That is immaterial. We care if you play, and if you behave youself.
Of course I couldn't tip since I couldn't be sure it wasn't going to the PaiGowDan pension fund ;) (KIDDING!)
This is what I want to see. House advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with no odds. And the house advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with $50 in odds. When the point is 10 only. Assuming odd were laid immediately after the point was set. SHOW YOUR WORK!
Quote: teddysDan, I recently played at your house. The table was half-tabled, completely jammed up, and the dealers were dealing like dogs to service everyone's bets. I really respect the professionalism at Station Casinos, unlike many other places (even on the Strip) where they could care less about the players, and make snide remarks.
Of course I couldn't tip since I couldn't be sure it wasn't going to the PaiGowDan pension fund ;) (KIDDING!)
We try very hard. - Thank you for saying that! And as for myself, I'm doing all right
I have always felt it was never necessary for a dice dealer, or any dealer, to make snide remarks, or worry about tips. So as long as people are good, and are having fun on a game, tips take care of themselves, all is good, and all takes care of itself. (Though if some player starts something, we may nail it in the bud.)
The crap table is sometimes a half-table, due to staffing needs. Dealers retire, dealers move on to higher-paying jobs, and what have you. Good help is hard to find.
Quote: yerdunAX .. That is what came to. My math isn't strong enough to figure this out. I admit it. But i do know this. Its either the ODDs bet have no affect on the overall house advantage, or it works conversely.
This is what I want to see. House advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with no odds. And the house advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with $50 in odds. When the point is 10 only. Assuming odd were laid immediately after the point was set. SHOW YOUR WORK!
They are the same, of course. The odds are 0 EV. Adding 0 doesn't change the edge.
But you are missing the point. Say I want to bet $70. I have two choices -- I can bet $70 on the don't, or I can bet $10 on the don't and take $60 in odds. Either way I have $70 in action, but my expected loss is only 14c (1.4% of $10) instead of 98c (1.4% of $70) (I use the number 1.4% rather than 1.36% because I don't think it makes sense to count pushes when calculating house edge in craps)
Quote: yerdunAX .. That is what came to. My math isn't strong enough to figure this out. I admit it. But i do know this. Its either the ODDs bet have no affect on the overall house advantage, or it works conversely.
This is what I want to see. House advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with no odds. And the house advantage on a $10 DONT PASS LINE bet with $50 in odds. When the point is 10 only. Assuming odd were laid immediately after the point was set. SHOW YOUR WORK!
Again, the Wizard has already answered your question here about halfway down the page
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/odds-bets/
Question: "I do not understand why you should lay the odds on the don’t pass or don’t come bets.
The Answer:
"Let’s say you have a $10 don’t pass bet and the point is a 4.
You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet, so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 = $3.33.
added:
EV = P(win) *Net $win + P(loss) * - Net $loss
Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it.
Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance of losing $50.
The expected value of both bets combined is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33.
So either way your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents.
With the don’t pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%.
With the don’t pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50 = 6.67%.
EV / resolved $bet = HE
So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet.
However that player edge is effective over more money.
The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment.
If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free."
======================================================
Even as the player edge is lowered by laying the odds, the EV does not change and never will.
Learn about EV and Standard Deviation, not just Edge alone.
And you are considering COMBINED EDGE of the flat bet and odds, since the Don't edge of -3/220 can never change.
The Odds HE of 0% will never and can never change.
Quote: yerdunAX .. That is what came to. My math isn't strong enough to figure this out.
The mathematics of dice have been worked out for ages, and the work as been shown to us long ago. One example of the basic (- and advanced) math of the game is listed fully on our companion site, here at the wizard of odds/craps. It is also in standard gambling texbooks such as John Scarne's Complete Guide to Gambling.
The odds bets, either lay or take, have no house edge, and are made after a point is established. They do NOT work conversely, or in "any direction." The flat bets (pass line or don't pass) both have a positive house edge/negative player edge, by a slight amount, approximately 1.4%.
I was assuming that money was no object in this scenario. "However that player edge is effective over more money".
And you have seemed to somewhat comfirmed my point. "So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet."
This statment needs further explination. "And you are considering COMBINED EDGE of the flat bet and odds, since the Don't edge of -3/220 can never change.
The Odds HE of 0% will never and can never change".
Im now going to study EV and standard deviation. As you all should!
Thanks again 7
Quote: PaigowdanThe mathematics of dice have been worked out for ages, and the work as been shown to us long ago. One example of the basic (- and advanced) math of the game is listed fully on our companion site, here at the wizard of odds/craps. It is also in standard gambling texbooks such as John Scarne's Complete Guide to Gambling.
The odds bets, either lay or take, have no house edge, and are made after a point is established. They do NOT work conversely, or in "any direction." The flat bets (pass line or don't pass) both have a positive house edge/negative player edge, by a slight amount, approximately 1.4%.
That was an ill phrased statment. What works conversely is how he odds effect the the overall edge of both a flat PASS LINE bet and a flat DONT PASS LINE bet. On the DONT PASS LINE, the odds Lower the PLAYERS edge. On PASS LINE the odds lower the HOUSES edge.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn terms of absolute dollars, you wouldn't lose any less. After all, the bet is 0 EV, so in the long run it adds 0 to your total.
The point of taking odds is that you lose less per dollar bet. If you are comfortable making a $25 don't bet and not taking odds, then you are (presumably) happy with $25 in action per point. In that case, you should not have made the $25 don't bet. You should have made a $5 don't bet and taken odds. You are gambling with just as much money (so you are getting the same amount of excitement and entertainment), but you have cut your expected losses significantly.
Exactly.
If he bet the don't pass with no odds he would lose 1.4% (or whatever the exact figure is) of turnover.
If I leached and just bet the odds on his don't pass bets I would lose 0%.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn terms of absolute dollars, you wouldn't lose any less. After all, the bet is 0 EV, so in the long run it adds 0 to your total.
The point of taking odds is that you lose less per dollar bet. If you are comfortable making a $25 don't bet and not taking odds, then you are (presumably) happy with $25 in action per point. In that case, you should not have made the $25 don't bet. You should have made a $5 don't bet and taken odds. You are gambling with just as much money (so you are getting the same amount of excitement and entertainment), but you have cut your expected losses significantly.
Exactly.
If he bet the don't pass with no odds he would lose 1.4% (or whatever the exact figure is) of turnover.
If I leached and just bet the odds on his don't pass bets I would lose 0%.
Quote: yerdunThat was an ill phrased statment. What works conversely is how he odds effect the the overall edge of both a flat PASS LINE bet and a flat DONT PASS LINE bet. On the DONT PASS LINE, the odds Lower the PLAYERS edge. On PASS LINE the odds lower the HOUSES edge.
Once the point is established (and is the only time odds bets can be made):
1. The don't pass player is at optimal advantage on the flat bet alone during the point, - having made it past the come-out stage. His don't pass flat bet alone is now a likely winner, during a point. Any additional lay odds neither lower or raise the player's edge on his flat bet, and have no edge advantage or disadvantage themselves at true odds. He may lay odds, or take odds down at any time during the point, for no edge advantage or disadvantage. He increases his risk or "exposure."
2. The pass line player is at a disadvantage during the point. His pass line bet is now a more likely a loser during the point. Any additional odds neither raise or lower the player's edge on his pass line bet, and have no edge advantage themselves either way at true odds. He may take odds, or take odds down at any time during the point, for no edge advantage or disadvantage. He increases his risk or "exposure."
Quote: PaigowdanOnce the point is established (and is the only time odds bets can be made):
1. The don't pass player is at optimal advantage on the flat bet alone during the point, - having made it past the come-out stage. His don't pass flat bet alone is now a likely winner, during a point. Any additional lay odds neither lower or raise the player's edge on his flat bet, and have no edge advantage or disadvantage themselves at true odds. He may lay odds, or take odds down at any time during the point, for no edge advantage or disadvantage. He increases his risk or "exposure."
2. The pass line player is at a disadvantage during the point. His pass line bet is now a more likely a loser during the point. Any additional odds neither raise or lower the player's edge on his pass line bet, and have no edge advantage themselves either way at true odds. He may take odds, or take odds down at any time during the point, for no edge advantage or disadvantage. He increases his risk or "exposure."
ok given what you just said is this statement True or False. Laying odds on a DONT PASS LINE flat bet is to a players advantage
Quote: yerdunok given what you just said is this statement True or False. Laying odds on a DONT PASS LINE flat bet is to a players advantage
Okay, I'll bite. Yes, it is a player's advantage - in the sense that there is NO house edge on that bet.
Odds are the only bets on craps that have no house edge. It's the best bet in craps.
And I'll say this: the don't pass bet has a 1.4% house edge - not a player's edge - and laying odds has a house edge of 0%.
Quote: PaigowdanOkay, I'll bite. Yes, it is a player's advantage - in the sense that there is NO house edge on that bet.
Odds are the only bets on craps that have no house edge. It's the best bet in craps.
And I'll say this: the don't pass bet has a 1.4% house edge - not a player's edge - and laying odds has a house edge of 0%.
It took a dice dealer 10 years to figure this out........I don't buy it. I learned this my first week playing craps.
Quote: YoDiceRoll11It took a dice dealer 10 years to figure this out........I don't buy it. I learned this my first week playing craps.
I figured it out before I ever stepped up to a craps table (thank you, wizard of odds...)
I still buy it though. I have heard blackjack dealers who have been dealing forever go on and on about how a bad play can screw up the flow of the cards and ruin the whole shoe. "I've been dealing for years and I've seen it a lot". Total nonsense.
Quote: yerdunAnd im going to continue to point to 7craps post because he is the only one who has shown his work. And it makes sense. He states, "So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops by making the odds bet"' (on the flat DONT PASS LINE bet). It's backs up what ive thouhg. but i have more to learn.
Ever so conveniently omitting (as a troll might) the next couple of sentences with the crystal clear caveats and suggestions:
"However that player edge is effective over more money. The way I think gamblers should view the house edge is as the price to pay for entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment for free."
"if you wanna bet green on the crap table, bet minimum on the "line" and as much as you can/want on the odds."
"The line is your entertainment tax to play craps, and put all your action in odds, as it neither favors you or the house."
You say the player has an ADVANTAGE once the point is set on the "Don't", however, do you really know how much DISADVANTAGE the player was under when his money was waiting to get a point set?? 8 ways to lose vs. 3 ways to win (1 way to "push")
It makes it a LOT easier to understand this "crap game don't pass bet" situation IF you can accept THAT the don't pass bet is a negative player expectation bet - as you HAVE to go through the come-out gauntlet against the don't pass bet, in order for it to BE a don't pass bet. Otherwise it becomes a re-taxed LAY bet.
ANY don't pass bet made AFTER the come-out is simply NOT a don't pass bet, it is a LAY bet, - plus it is also hit with a vig. Every crap dealer knows this. So, the natural don't pass bet is a negative player expection bet, and cannot be any other way - just as the pass line bet is.
TIMSPEED is absolutely right.
The line bet - "do side or don't side," - pass line or don't pass - is the house tax. Always there.
And the free odds are only allowed after that tax is paid. Every time.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIn terms of absolute dollars, you wouldn't lose any less. After all, the bet is 0 EV, so in the long run it adds 0 to your total.
Quote: Beethoven9thI think you missed his point. He's saying that he'd lose less than someone who plays the Don't without laying odds.
Two well trained monkeys go up to a craps table with $1000. The table is $10 min with 3-4-5 times odds.
One has been trained to always only bet the $10 minimum on the don't pass. No odds.
The other has been trained to always bet a $10 minimum on the don't pass with max odds.
At the end of a few hours of play - who walks away with more money?
I'm not sure of the actual math, but it seems that since the odds are added after the point is established, when the don't pass is more likely to win, the odds should win more than they lose. This should help cover the house's edge on the don't pass.
So while the odds have no edge or advantage and do increase risk, they are still a good idea for a don't pass bet that makes it past the come out roll.
I'm probably waaaayyyyy off here.
Quote: mrcleanIt seems that since the odds are added after the point is established, when the don't pass is more likely to win, the odds should win more than they lose. This should help cover the house's edge on the don't pass. So while the odds have no edge or advantage and do increase risk, they are still a good idea for a don't pass bet that makes it past the come out roll.
Only if variance is going your way. If it isn't, you are S-O-L.
Quote: mrcleanQuote: Beethoven9thI think you missed his point. He's saying that he'd lose less than someone who plays the Don't without laying odds.
Two well trained monkeys go up to a craps table with $1000. The table is $10 min with 3-4-5 times odds.
One has been trained to always only bet the $10 minimum on the don't pass. No odds.
The other has been trained to always bet a $10 minimum on the don't pass with max odds.
At the end of a few hours of play - who walks away with more money?
I'm not sure of the actual math, but it seems that since the odds are added after the point is established, when the don't pass is more likely to win, the odds should win more than they lose. This should help cover the house's edge on the don't pass.
So while the odds have no edge or advantage and do increase risk, they are still a good idea for a don't pass bet that makes it past the come out roll.
I'm probably waaaayyyyy off here.
I might be way off here too, but I think you're touching on a point that many fail to understand.
Just like a martingale betting system, leveraging more money to get a more likely payoff is in fact a working system.
The qualifications for martingale working is that you need an infinite bankroll.
But it does in fact work.
In the short term (to make money quickly when you already have money available) the max lay odds approach is the soundest approach available without adding any house advantage.
The point that you are trying to illustrate is a point that I think is lost on many: if you want to win a random event, you are more likely to win if you leverage your bankroll.
Here's another example of this point from the casino's perspective:
The casino HATES the high roller who comes in and bets big once, twice, three times, or so, and then leaves.
The reason why is that they need more events to come out ahead. They can't stay in business if the highest bankroll players always bet a few times and win and leave and the lowest bankroll players bet flat bets all day long and hit the exact house edge for their income.
If you want to be the casino's enemy, bet big like you describe on the don't, and after you win big with a few events, stop and then start playing for fun on the do's.
Two nights ago, I saw a don't player who had $20,000 and lost ALL of it at the Mirage. He kept doubling into his losses, and he lost all $20,000 in about 5 minutes on one good shooter.
The reason for this is because when he lost, he was trying to get back his money too quickly, and things exploded in his face.
For all I know, the guy made all his money doing the same thing for the last year. More likely he doesn't give a rats ass about $20,000 and he's a smart guy who has fun using systems like he was using.
But the point is that EVERY SYSTEM FAILS EVENTUALLY if there is a house edge and/or if there is a limit to your maximum bets or to your bankroll. I think he would have broke even after betting $100,000 lay or more as the hot shooter made more pass/come wins after he got blown out.
Quote: mrcleanQuote: Beethoven9thI think you missed his point. He's saying that he'd lose less than someone who plays the Don't without laying odds.
Two well trained monkeys go up to a craps table with $1000. The table is $10 min with 3-4-5 times odds.
One has been trained to always only bet the $10 minimum on the don't pass. No odds.
The other has been trained to always bet a $10 minimum on the don't pass with max odds.
At the end of a few hours of play - who walks away with more money?
I'm not sure of the actual math, but it seems that since the odds are added after the point is established, when the don't pass is more likely to win, the odds should win more than they lose. This should help cover the house's edge on the don't pass.
So while the odds have no edge or advantage and do increase risk, they are still a good idea for a don't pass bet that makes it past the come out roll.
I'm probably waaaayyyyy off here.
In theory, they would both end up with exactly the same amount. The reason is that the odds bets is an even money bet. The only amount that is truely exposed to the house edge is the line bet. Therefore, they will end up the same because their line bets are the same.
However, the monkey betting the odds bet would have much wider swings in his bankroll over the course of play which could expose him to a large win if he quits at the right time, or ruin if he reaches the limits of his bankroll before the end of the play period.
With an infinite bankroll and an infinite number of rolls their expected loss would be equal because the house edge would remain constant (and the same) for both of them.
Quote: skrbornevryminIn theory, they would both end up with exactly the same amount.
But they have a limited bankroll. That is a complicating factor.
If the players were not allowed to bet their winnings, but stop when they had bet the grand, the player betting the odds would, on average, win more/lose less .
Since there is no such stipulation, it means I'm not sure in this case.
A head-up race for a few hours, say 90 bets, on average,Quote: mrcleanTwo well trained monkeys go up to a craps table with $1000.
The table is $10 min with 3-4-5 times odds.
One has been trained to always only bet the $10 minimum on the don't pass. No odds.
The other has been trained to always bet a $10 minimum on the don't pass with max odds.
At the end of a few hours of play - who walks away with more money?
it is a coin toss.
49.6%(rounded) of the time the odds players wins more
49.6%(rounded) of the time the no odds player wins more.
A simulation (1 million, 90 bet sessions)
shows .8% of the time both players ended with exactly the same ending bankroll
who walks away with more money?
if you mean who's bankroll increases more after a few hours of play, not averaging all the results.
345X odds player wins
Bankroll increased . . = 48.722% of the time
No odds player
Bankroll increased . . = 42.661% of the time
Because the odds adds variance, that increases the chance of a session bust
345X odds player
Bankroll was busted . . = 2.587% of the time (25867)
No odds player
Bankroll was busted . . = 0.000% of the time (0)
Want to double your $1000 or bust trying?
Same two players.
No odds player has a 5.7034% chance of success
over an average of 6317 games played
The odds player has a 46.644% chance of success
over an average of 428 games played
Laying the odds should match your playing goals
Not quite correct.Quote: mrcleanI'm not sure of the actual math, but it seems that since the odds are added after the point is established,
when the don't pass is more likely to win,
the odds should win more than they lose.
This should help cover the house's edge on the don't pass.
Do the math and see. Here is why.
The don't pass is more likely to win once a point is established but the bet wins less than what is wagered.
Lay odds on the 4 or 10 for example have a 2/3 chance of winning.
lay odds are $60 to win $30 for your $10 flat bet
win ev: 2/3*$30 = 60/3 = $20
lose ev: 1/3*-$60 = -60/3 = -$20
add them up
did you get 0?
Good Luck
No. Far from it.Quote: skrbornevryminIn theory, they would both end up with exactly the same amount.
Because the standard deviation is way different.
No boring math
The EV is the same but not the sd.
90 don't pass bets
345X odds
-$12.27 ev
466.07 sd
no odds
-$12.27 ev SAME
94.86 sd
After 90 such don't pass bets, it is the variance that determines the ending bankroll, not the house edge.
My sims show about .8% of the time they end up with exactly the same $$$s. So do not bank on that.
The Law of Large numbers is all about ratios and percentages, not absolute values.
I Agree.Quote: skrbornevryminHowever, the monkey betting the odds bet would have much wider swings in his bankroll over the course of play which could expose him to a large win if he quits at the right time, or ruin if he reaches the limits of his bankroll before the end of the play period.
But the monkeys play for a few hours.
Some will bust out laying the odds. Most do not.
Quote: odiousgambitIf the players were not allowed to bet their winnings, but stop when they had bet the grand, the player betting the odds would, on average, win more/lose less .
An odds bet will never help the player "win more/lose less." The reduction in the house edge comes because the house edge is a ratio of expected loss to the amount wagered. Just like increasing the denominator of a fraction reduces the amount that the fraction represents, the odds bet is in effect increasing the denominator of the ratio without changing the numerator. In other words, an even money bet, such as an odds bet, would not affect the expected value only the volitility of the results over many trials.
Also, reducing or limiting the number of trials, i.e. limiting the bankroll, does not change expected results. If we were to graph the results, each point on the graph would tend to vary more wildly when betting with odds, but the mean or average of all the points in each case would remain pretty much the same.
The only way to "win more/lose less" would be to quit at a point when the volitility is favorable, which is a temporary condition that only exists in the very short run, statistically speaking.
