kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4587
October 30th, 2012 at 6:49:26 PM permalink
I see 3 possible effects from the storm on the election.

1. Power, flooding and transportation issues even a week from today could lower turnout in New Jersey and New York. Neither state is in play. Obama still wins each state, but both could get fewer votes which could increase what I believe is an already strong chance that Romney will win the popular, while Obama wins the electoral vote.

2. Heavy snow in West Virginia and Virginia mountains. Won't effect West Virginia as that is safely Romney win. In Virginia that area is Romney territory. Even a slight reduction in voting turnout could help Obama (and Tim Kaine) in a very close race.

3. This one is not related to the storm itself, but more of an aftermath. Chris Christie singing the praises of President Obama. No bigger (figuratively and literally...lol) critic of the President. Could help Obama. More importantly, Christie could end up being the big winner in 4 years. I think this situation shows him in a good light.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
October 30th, 2012 at 6:52:00 PM permalink
" Christie could end up being the big winner in 4 years. " Pound for pound, the Republican's biggest hope.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4587
October 30th, 2012 at 6:54:47 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" Christie could end up being the big winner in 4 years. " Pound for pound, the Republican's biggest hope.



I made light of his weight as well, so I can't fault you for it, but would hope to stay more on topic. lol
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1403
  • Posts: 23731
October 30th, 2012 at 7:10:14 PM permalink
Current Pinnacle lines:

Obama -230
Romney +205

Before Sandy Obama had been around -200 for about two weeks. I'm not sure if this is due to Sandy, that some major bookies involved with Pinnacle were arrested, or something else.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4587
October 30th, 2012 at 7:16:59 PM permalink
I think the line movement is about Virginia. A couple recent polls show Virginia even or with Obama having a slight lead, when just a week ago, most people thought it would go Romney.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7237
October 30th, 2012 at 7:21:52 PM permalink
Iowa an Nevada early voting look good for Obama as well. I think there's a perception that Obama may be wrapping those up before election day, which really cripples Romney's path to 270 EV. I could see that popping out the line on intrade a bit.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 434
  • Posts: 25333
October 30th, 2012 at 7:25:23 PM permalink
Nothing will help Obama at this point. The only way
it would is if the public thought he was on ogre, and
when they see him they go oh, he's not an ogre at all.

They don't think he's an ogre, when he gives his little
blurbs on the damage, he's the same ol boring Obama.
Distant, uninspired, sounding flat and disinterested.

Whats interesting is, more and more Dem's are asking
if Obama can postpone the election because a lot of
Obama voters won't be able to get to the polls in the
effected states next Tue. And thats all there is in NY,
NJ, DE, Maryland, the highest concentration of Dem's
in the country.

Obama has no such power. If he did, a president could
cancel an election not going his way and some of them
would, for sure. Maybe congress can do it, but they won't.
Oh well..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4587
October 30th, 2012 at 7:27:00 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Iowa an Nevada early voting look good for Obama as well. I think there's a perception that Obama may be wrapping those up before election day, which really cripples Romney's path to 270 EV. I could see that popping out the line on intrade a bit.



Yeah, Nevada is a done deal. I think Iowa may be a little closer.

I saw an interesting peice on CNN today that was saying the polls are all undervaluing the Latino Vote as not one single pollster, using either live or automated has an option to speak spanish. As a result the Latinos that doesn't speak English or don't speak it that well, just hang up. (part of the high hang-up rate)
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 1348
October 30th, 2012 at 7:36:43 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob


Whats interesting is, more and more Dem's are asking
if Obama can postpone the election because a lot of
Obama voters won't be able to get to the polls in the
effected states next Tue. And thats all there is in NY,
NJ, DE, Maryland, the highest concentration of Dem's
in the country.



You know? I can understand thinking that a large popular vote gap is extremely unlikely to swing opposite to the electoral college, but thinking that an increase in the gap coming entirely from blue states, while they remain blue, will affect the election is a kind of magical thinking on par with Parliament's infamous query of Babbage.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
  • Threads: 434
  • Posts: 25333
October 30th, 2012 at 7:41:16 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

will affect the election is a kind of magical thinking on par with Parliament's infamous query of Babbage.



The only state in the whole region that
isn't blue is NH. The storm won't change
anything.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

  • Jump to: