predictwise last 30 days - election
Quote: TheBigPaybak8. I know many people who voted for Obama who are now voting for Romney. I don't know a single person who voted for McCain that's now going to vote for Obama.
Yo.
(But I'm in Massachusetts, so I don't count.)
Regardless, all of this is just superstition. All these things affect the election, sure, but all that data is wrapped up neatly in the polls; to count the polls and then add the data to it is absurd double-dipping. RCP shows 146 votes up for grabs, of them 89 biased toward Obama and 57 toward Romney, plus Obama's 10-vote lead in states outside the MoE. That's a toss-up, with a slight edge toward Obama - exactly what a 60-40 prediction market should look like. If I were a frequent trader there, I imagine I'd start buying Obama at $5, although I probably would already own some Romney with the intention of selling it next weekend.
Quote: 24BingoYo.
(But I'm in Massachusetts, so I don't count.)
Regardless, all of this is just superstition. All these things affect the election, sure, but all that data is wrapped up neatly in the polls; to count the polls and then add the data to it is absurd double-dipping. RCP shows 146 votes up for grabs, of them 89 biased toward Obama and 57 toward Romney, plus Obama's 10-vote lead in states outside the MoE. That's a toss-up, with a slight edge toward Obama - exactly what a 60-40 prediction market should look like. If I were a frequent trader there, I imagine I'd start buying Obama at $5, although I probably would already own some Romney with the intention of selling it next weekend.
That's my point: the polls don't show the whole picture. They attempt to show the reality at a particular time, and even then, polls can vary because of a number of factors, so which ones do you believe? I'm saying that regardless of the shifting polls, that I wouldn't be surprised if the outcome is a different reality then the polling would suggest. At least as of today. We'll see...
