Do you speculate in the stock market? When to sell???
July 21st, 2012 at 8:27:44 AM
permalink
i was speculating on some stocks ($100k). i was up 40k in a couple of months.
i was going to sell at 50k profit.
but the market tanked and i'm back to break even 6months later.
when would you have sold the stocks?
or at least what would your stop-loss set point be? WHY?
edit:
hey mod, can you fix my spelling mistake in my title?
or tell me how i can edit my title??
i was going to sell at 50k profit.
but the market tanked and i'm back to break even 6months later.
when would you have sold the stocks?
or at least what would your stop-loss set point be? WHY?
edit:
hey mod, can you fix my spelling mistake in my title?
or tell me how i can edit my title??
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
July 21st, 2012 at 8:38:22 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsi was speculating on some stocks ($100k). i was up 40k in a couple of months.
i was going to sell at 50k profit.
but the market tanked and i'm back to break even 6months later.
when would you have sold the stocks?
or at least what would your stop-loss set point be? WHY?
edit:
hey mod, can you fix my spelling mistake in my title?
or tell me how i can edit my title??
Like leaving the run at the BJ and craps table, knowing when to take a profit is the key to making profit. There is no right answer since the stock market does not know when you bought nor at what price. But 40% in a few months is huge. I might have backed off some at 20% or so and let the rest run. But that is me.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
July 21st, 2012 at 9:07:26 AM
permalink
If you are speculating on a few select stocks, selling at 25% profit might be the right spot. Differences in opinions here.
If you invested in a diversified way [which it doesnt sound like] then basically you cash in by "rebalancing" since in theory you have too much in stocks... but that is percentages. Probably when a desired 55% in stocks goes up 5% to 60%, as an example, is a good time.
If you invested in a diversified way [which it doesnt sound like] then basically you cash in by "rebalancing" since in theory you have too much in stocks... but that is percentages. Probably when a desired 55% in stocks goes up 5% to 60%, as an example, is a good time.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 21st, 2012 at 5:14:05 PM
permalink
My threshold is usually 20% in either direction. Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) is an exception to this because I bought it at $0.08/share, and I'm still holding it at $2.095/share because I knew it was way undervalued and still think it is.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 21st, 2012 at 5:37:12 PM
permalink
20% and run for the hills. I know a guy who still
hasn't recovered fully from when NASDAQ crashed
in the late 90's.
hasn't recovered fully from when NASDAQ crashed
in the late 90's.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
July 21st, 2012 at 6:13:02 PM
permalink
Quote: Mission146My threshold is usually 20% in either direction. Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) is an exception to this because I bought it at $0.08/share, and I'm still holding it at $2.095/share because I knew it was way undervalued and still think it is.
You have to realize gains at some point. Sell some of it at least in my opinion, which you didnt ask for [g]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 21st, 2012 at 6:46:36 PM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitYou have to realize gains at some point. Sell some of it at least in my opinion, which you didnt ask for [g]
It was not requested, but is appreciated!
I have got to tell you that I only have 1,000 shares of it bought at that price and another thousand shares bought at $0.6x (Don't remember exactly) a share. I'm up about $3,500 on it, at this point, discluding any commissions that would have to be paid on a sell. I actually own very few stocks, less than $10,000 in total, so I'm really hesitant to sell what I see as my best gradually improving stock.
New auto sales should also be strong for the 2013 models rolling out. If new auto sales are strong, Sirius is strong. They've already added over 1.5 million subscribers this year.
I plan on taking my profits by selling half of the shares late next year. Howard Stern is not going to sign a new contract when his ends in 2015, but that impending disaster won't hurt the stock value until probably late 2014. We'll see if they can get an exclusive contract with another big name, though I doubt very much there is a name bigger than, "Stern," in the radio world. That said, I can't stand Howard Stern.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 21st, 2012 at 7:37:07 PM
permalink
Quote: Mission146My threshold is usually 20% in either direction. Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) is an exception to this because I bought it at $0.08/share, and I'm still holding it at $2.095/share because I knew it was way undervalued and still think it is.
why 20% as your sell point?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
July 21st, 2012 at 7:37:28 PM
permalink
Quote: EvenBob20% and run for the hills. I know a guy who still
hasn't recovered fully from when NASDAQ crashed
in the late 90's.
hm.. 20% is a theme.
why 20% as the magic %?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
July 21st, 2012 at 8:12:57 PM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddswhy 20% as your sell point?
I think that, under normal circumstances, with Max hold time (Sirius again being an exception) 20% is probably right around the right number that you can expect to see a stock climb and sustain. You have to look out for short sales and mini-bubbles that can be based on inaccurate information which will later lead to the stock falling off of that mark in the future. Sometimes that increase is also based on a predicted (but not known for sure) event, so if the event doesn't come to fruition, the stock is going to tank. In my estimation, I'd rather sell at the height of the speculation rather than wait and see whether or not the speculation will actually come to fruition.
In terms of losing 20% on stock, my opinion is that it is simply tanking. I understand that stock evaluations are based almost exclusively on investor opinion, but I'm not a fan of investors being of an opinion that my ownership is worth only 4/5ths of what it was when I bought it. I had the good fortune of getting into stocks when the market was near its decade low. It seemed like the right time. I was pretty much continuous reinvestment in short-term CD's (in case an emergency came up where I would need the cash fairly quick) prior to getting into stocks.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
July 22nd, 2012 at 3:39:07 AM
permalink
Quote: Mission146I'm up about $3,500 on it, at this point, discluding any commissions that would have to be paid on a sell. I actually own very few stocks, less than $10,000 in total, so I'm really hesitant to sell what I see as my best gradually improving stock.
That may or may not work out for you, but it is overall the wrong type of thinking, akin to gambler's fallacy stuff, that I see there. Perhaps that is a bit harsh, sorry. I see it all the time and it bugs me that it is so hard to kill this type of wrong thinking.
[hey, you should have smacked me down instead of encouraging more opinion you didnt ask for [g]]
IMO no matter how much you have in stocks, diversification is devoutly to be wished for.
Instead of me going on and on about it, read the newsletters you get from your 401k and mutual fund people,etc. If for some reason you don't get those kinds of things, go to a website like Vanguard dot com and read the newsletter stuff there.
Another way to hear some good stuff is Edelman Radio. They pound on fallacies constantly and you really realize listening just how badly most people go about investing, how prone they are to fallacies, and how frequently they fall prey to getting cheated too.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 22nd, 2012 at 5:29:38 AM
permalink
my 401k is diversified:
total market
total bonds
total intl (getting killed here)
non-401k = speculation $
like a casino, i'm not ok w/losing it, but it's $ i can afford to lose
total market
total bonds
total intl (getting killed here)
non-401k = speculation $
like a casino, i'm not ok w/losing it, but it's $ i can afford to lose
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
July 22nd, 2012 at 6:50:55 AM
permalink
As a former holder of a series 7 license (stock broker), I'm probably the least qualified to give advice on this subject. With that caveat in mind..
Don't speculate in the market. It's not a gambling tool. Buy into a mutual fund whose goals match yours and then never worry about it. If you like high risk/high reward then buy into that. I'll tell you right here, as far as mutual funds are concerned, past performance IS an indication of future results. Compare what they've done over the last three years with each other and pick the best one.
Then never look back. You'll give yourself heartburn following the daily ups and downs. This is what I do and since 1/18/2010, I've see my account increase by about 18% 21.67%. That's not terrible for 2 and a half years. Not the best but not terrible.
Don't speculate in the market. It's not a gambling tool. Buy into a mutual fund whose goals match yours and then never worry about it. If you like high risk/high reward then buy into that. I'll tell you right here, as far as mutual funds are concerned, past performance IS an indication of future results. Compare what they've done over the last three years with each other and pick the best one.
Then never look back. You'll give yourself heartburn following the daily ups and downs. This is what I do and since 1/18/2010, I've see my account increase by about 18% 21.67%. That's not terrible for 2 and a half years. Not the best but not terrible.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
August 23rd, 2012 at 6:07:52 PM
permalink
Quote: Mission146My threshold is usually 20% in either direction. Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) is an exception to this because I bought it at $0.08/share, and I'm still holding it at $2.095/share because I knew it was way undervalued and still think it is.
I hope this isn't going to be considered bragging, but one month and two days after this post, on a day that the markets are down across the board, Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) dropped 6 points....to $2.50/share.
It reached a 52-Week high of $2.64 on the 20th. The buy would have been a nice quick 20%.
Many of the 2013 models have not rolled out yet, of course. The sales numbers are going to be monster compared to the last few years. It's going to get even better, I think, but it may take a little more time than this. If it falls back to $2.10, then I might sell, but again, I'm already way ahead on this one.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 12:09:18 AM
permalink
Quote: Mission146I hope this isn't going to be considered bragging
Hey, brag away, you picked a winner.
My suggestion is still to sell though. You don't have to get rid of it if you still like it, just reduce your exposure.
I can brag how good I did with gold, I first started buying when it was below $500 an oz... but I started selling it at some point and now have none at all. I'm going to brag that I did that right.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 24th, 2012 at 4:00:07 AM
permalink
The market doesn't know (or care) at what price you bought your shares. Hence all stop-win (and stop-loss) strategies are an illusion in terms of EV.
You should buy shares whenever you're sure they are undervalued. Likewise you should sell your shares whenever you're not sure anymore whether they are undervalued or not.
Keeping your shares for the only reason you once bought them at an undervalued price is pretty ignorant. The market price is all about expectations. If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to buy them ? If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to keep them ?
You should buy shares whenever you're sure they are undervalued. Likewise you should sell your shares whenever you're not sure anymore whether they are undervalued or not.
Keeping your shares for the only reason you once bought them at an undervalued price is pretty ignorant. The market price is all about expectations. If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to buy them ? If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to keep them ?
August 24th, 2012 at 7:22:05 AM
permalink
OdiousGambit,
I'm glad you did well on Gold, I didn't have the resources to make a serious play, or I would have. I'd have jumped on board a little late, but I started screaming, "Buy Gold," from the rooftops to my (few) wealthy friends, my insurance guy and the owner of the hotel in March '10. It was right around $1,100.
They all thought Gold was just a fad, and maybe it still is, but everytime there was a shaky day in the market, people moved to Gold and it didn't seem as though they were in too much of a hurry to put their money back!!!
I also told my insurance guy about Sirius when it was at $0.08. He has over $1,000,000 in stocks. I told him $10,000 in Sirius stock is little more than dipping a toe in, for him, so he should take a shot. I made all of my arguments as to why it was undervalued. He said, "Too much debt," and that was it. That's a shame, 10K would get him $310,000 (less commissions) as of a couple minutes ago when I checked it...
He retired, anyway, but I ran into him on one of my rare trips to the golf course...I prefer the casino...can't make money at the links so it's a fixed loss, especially the way I play golf!!! I digress. In any event, he claims to have no recollection of my Sirius pick, imagine that!
I'm glad you did well on Gold, I didn't have the resources to make a serious play, or I would have. I'd have jumped on board a little late, but I started screaming, "Buy Gold," from the rooftops to my (few) wealthy friends, my insurance guy and the owner of the hotel in March '10. It was right around $1,100.
They all thought Gold was just a fad, and maybe it still is, but everytime there was a shaky day in the market, people moved to Gold and it didn't seem as though they were in too much of a hurry to put their money back!!!
I also told my insurance guy about Sirius when it was at $0.08. He has over $1,000,000 in stocks. I told him $10,000 in Sirius stock is little more than dipping a toe in, for him, so he should take a shot. I made all of my arguments as to why it was undervalued. He said, "Too much debt," and that was it. That's a shame, 10K would get him $310,000 (less commissions) as of a couple minutes ago when I checked it...
He retired, anyway, but I ran into him on one of my rare trips to the golf course...I prefer the casino...can't make money at the links so it's a fixed loss, especially the way I play golf!!! I digress. In any event, he claims to have no recollection of my Sirius pick, imagine that!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 7:28:01 AM
permalink
Quote: MangoJThe market doesn't know (or care) at what price you bought your shares. Hence all stop-win (and stop-loss) strategies are an illusion in terms of EV.
You should buy shares whenever you're sure they are undervalued. Likewise you should sell your shares whenever you're not sure anymore whether they are undervalued or not.
Keeping your shares for the only reason you once bought them at an undervalued price is pretty ignorant. The market price is all about expectations. If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to buy them ? If you don't know what to expect, why would you want to keep them ?
I know that the market doesn't care, but I care, haven't you ever heard of, "Pressing your bets?" The only difference here is I can't lose everything that I have on the, "Pass Line," barring unmitigated catastrophe. If I was really worried about such catastrophe even potentially taking place, I wouldn't have money in there to begin with, so my operating assumption is that it doesn't plummet under $2.00 in one day.
I still believe Sirius is undervalued, as I said. New cars sold are new Sirius activations and subscriptions. New car sales are going to kick ass for the 2013 model year, and when they do, Sirius will come out shining! Have you seen the 2013 Kia Rio? That's one hot car! If I were not still quite happy with my PT, I'd get one. I just invested in new tires for the PT, though, 80k mile Uniroyal Touring Tires...so I think I'll be keeping it for awhile.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 7:28:14 AM
permalink
Duplicate Post.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 11:22:36 AM
permalink
Quote: Mission146New cars sold are new Sirius activations and subscriptions.
Pandora stock is struggling. But should we be considering it undervalued?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 24th, 2012 at 11:28:07 AM
permalink
Pandora doesn't offer any original and exclusive material, such as Howard Stern. People can put together playlists in MP3's and set it to randomize. I think Pandora is utterly useless, but will look into it later.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 2:51:20 PM
permalink
Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) got four of those points back today and outpaced the Nasdaq Composite three-fold. Sirius has generally outpaced the Nasdaq Composite for some time, now. This has been true both for long-terms and most (if not all) short-terms.
Motley Fool has loved Sirius for a long time.
Seeking Alpha loves them.
The Street loves them.
Liberty Media, (Creditor of Sirius to the tune of 5.3M) also plans to boost its stock ownership of Sirius to over 50% to have full control and then engage in a stock buyback.
NOTE: I looked at Pandora, could be a decent buy, I wouldn't do it, though.
Motley Fool has loved Sirius for a long time.
Seeking Alpha loves them.
The Street loves them.
Liberty Media, (Creditor of Sirius to the tune of 5.3M) also plans to boost its stock ownership of Sirius to over 50% to have full control and then engage in a stock buyback.
NOTE: I looked at Pandora, could be a decent buy, I wouldn't do it, though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
August 24th, 2012 at 7:03:13 PM
permalink
I don't speculate... I do my 10K/10Q homework, call the Co. and invest long-term. Since 2004 my rather meager 27,000 has turned into a 14-bagger. Sure I've sold some good stock, and bought others, but not daily, weekly, monthly... at least 6 months. BTW, the garbage indicator is telling a tale of declines headed our way 3-6 months out, but we will see what Sept. garbage indicator looks like... it should show a healthy rise now that the kiddies are back to school. Tangent... the recent mood changes and habits of the garbage economy havechanged, indicating less garbage over the last 5 years. This due in part to the high amount of valuable discards being recycled like rechargible batteries, older but still functioinal lappys, celphones, netbooks, gadgets, etc. In short people are tossing away valuable stuff for free-to-recycle, rather than re-sell. Thars gold, rare earths, and even rhodium in most of this stuff.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
August 25th, 2012 at 5:41:23 AM
permalink
Quote: 98ClubsI don't speculate... I do my 10K/10Q homework, call the Co. and invest long-term. Since 2004 my rather meager 27,000 has turned into a 14-bagger. Sure I've sold some good stock, and bought others, but not daily, weekly, monthly... at least 6 months. BTW, the garbage indicator is telling a tale of declines headed our way 3-6 months out, but we will see what Sept. garbage indicator looks like... it should show a healthy rise now that the kiddies are back to school. Tangent... the recent mood changes and habits of the garbage economy havechanged, indicating less garbage over the last 5 years. This due in part to the high amount of valuable discards being recycled like rechargible batteries, older but still functioinal lappys, celphones, netbooks, gadgets, etc. In short people are tossing away valuable stuff for free-to-recycle, rather than re-sell. Thars gold, rare earths, and even rhodium in most of this stuff.
isnt sept typically the worse month of the year for the stock market?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
August 26th, 2012 at 3:17:08 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsisnt sept typically the worse month of the year for the stock market?
If you believe that, sell all your stock and buy it back in Oct.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
August 30th, 2012 at 2:57:59 PM
permalink
Quote: Mission146Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) got four of those points back today and outpaced the Nasdaq Composite three-fold. Sirius has generally outpaced the Nasdaq Composite for some time, now. This has been true both for long-terms and most (if not all) short-terms.
Motley Fool has loved Sirius for a long time.
Seeking Alpha loves them.
The Street loves them.
Liberty Media, (Creditor of Sirius to the tune of 5.3M) also plans to boost its stock ownership of Sirius to over 50% to have full control and then engage in a stock buyback.
NOTE: I looked at Pandora, could be a decent buy, I wouldn't do it, though.
Sirius still frozen at $2.54-$2.55
Swing and a miss on the Pandora no buy!!!
Due to better than expected ad revenues, Pandora's stock (Ticker Symbol: P) shoots up 144 points to $11.52!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 19th, 2013 at 7:59:07 PM
permalink
100xOdds wants to know when to sell. Gerald M. Loeb said "My best reason to sell a stock is that it stops going up, or, worse yet, starts going down." Sometimes a stop doesn't work. I was recently burned in CREE. They make LED lighting and it dropped 20% following a favorable earnings report. This happened in the after-hours market where a stop would not be effective. I think the best way to avoid this kind of disaster would be to put your money in an index ETF. Warren Buffett recommends this. SPY is the biggest one and can absorb a great deal of money. It is more predicable than individual stocks are. Making money in the stock market involves being able to predict what a stock will do next.
"A speculator is one who foresees the future and acts before it happens." - Bernard Baruch
"A speculator is one who foresees the future and acts before it happens." - Bernard Baruch
September 20th, 2013 at 1:02:03 AM
permalink
Sorry ISP glitch or sumthin.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
September 20th, 2013 at 1:02:05 AM
permalink
Loeb is a fairly astute investor. The only thing I could suggest is when a stock flat-lines... like AMX after 2nd split. Just dead money.
I sell when I need money, otherwise its invested.
Rule 1) work to make money.
Rule 2) make your money work for you.
I sell when I need money, otherwise its invested.
Rule 1) work to make money.
Rule 2) make your money work for you.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
September 20th, 2013 at 3:04:10 AM
permalink
I remember this thread; beyond the original question Mission146 and his stock and my unsolicited advice. Back then Mission was just another poster I think, and I was letting go with such stuff as "it is so hard to kill this type of wrong thinking" "akin to gambler's fallacy"
hooboy
My current preferences is for ETFs as much as possible, for the diversification and low cost, and it seems odd to me that I wasn't talking about them when I was posting back then. We own very few individual stocks with one exception, my wife refusing to let go of it even though we have way too much of an exposure in it thanks to Mission146-type thinking. Compromise has allowed me to declare we will never own less than X dollars of that stock [or more than the figure, which means I sometimes sell shares - she seems not to realize this]
Anyway I also have fully developed the view that, getting back to 100X's original question, that the way to time buying and selling stock is to set a Balance Goal based on your age and risk tolerance, then adjust when stocks go up and down to maintain it. Currently that means selling stock, buying bonds, and rolling out some cash. If the market gets a decline, then you buy stocks and sell bonds. This is so much easier to do when you do not get hooked on some individual stock!
Note this automatically has you buying and selling at good points. On the other hand, it does prevent me now from gambling that the market will go on a run, by buying stock instead of selling. I am pretty sure it will continue to go up. If so, the opportunity is gone due to what I have done instead, and I sell more.
The idea as laid out works, but requires discipline. Knowing my balance is currently out of whack helps drive it. [edit]
Having said all that, it appears Mission146 continues to come out of his gamble on Sirius smelling like a rose!
hooboy
Quote: puzzlenutput your money in an index ETF
My current preferences is for ETFs as much as possible, for the diversification and low cost, and it seems odd to me that I wasn't talking about them when I was posting back then. We own very few individual stocks with one exception, my wife refusing to let go of it even though we have way too much of an exposure in it thanks to Mission146-type thinking. Compromise has allowed me to declare we will never own less than X dollars of that stock [or more than the figure, which means I sometimes sell shares - she seems not to realize this]
Anyway I also have fully developed the view that, getting back to 100X's original question, that the way to time buying and selling stock is to set a Balance Goal based on your age and risk tolerance, then adjust when stocks go up and down to maintain it. Currently that means selling stock, buying bonds, and rolling out some cash. If the market gets a decline, then you buy stocks and sell bonds. This is so much easier to do when you do not get hooked on some individual stock!
Note this automatically has you buying and selling at good points. On the other hand, it does prevent me now from gambling that the market will go on a run, by buying stock instead of selling. I am pretty sure it will continue to go up. If so, the opportunity is gone due to what I have done instead, and I sell more.
The idea as laid out works, but requires discipline. Knowing my balance is currently out of whack helps drive it. [edit]
Having said all that, it appears Mission146 continues to come out of his gamble on Sirius smelling like a rose!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 20th, 2013 at 3:10:29 AM
permalink
I just read online that billionaires like Buffet, Soros, etc., are quietly dumping their stocks expecting another big stock market correction. Google "Billionaires Dumping Stocks." Does anyone know if this is true, or just some type of sales pitch?
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
September 20th, 2013 at 3:22:55 AM
permalink
Quote: mickeycrimmI just read online that billionaires like Buffet, Soros, etc., are quietly dumping their stocks expecting another big stock market correction. Google "Billionaires Dumping Stocks." Does anyone know if this is true, or just some type of sales pitch?
I've seen that claim when looking at stock market articles online as a sidebar ad. You see some suspect ads. There is always somebody pitching disaster! One guy claims the Dow will go down to 1500 or some crazy figure, but is apparently able to claim he called the last crash.
When you google "Billionaires Dumping Stocks" it seems you come up with 'articles' that attempt to sell these books or newsletters, seems to me.
I guess they could point to me, too. "non-billionaire dumping stocks" but there is no book. If you have a balance goal you have set , and you have the discipline to follow it, now is a time to be selling stocks!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 20th, 2013 at 4:46:39 AM
permalink
Quote: mickeycrimmI just read online that billionaires like Buffet, Soros, etc., are quietly dumping their stocks expecting another big stock market correction. Google "Billionaires Dumping Stocks." Does anyone know if this is true, or just some type of sales pitch?
It's funny, people have been predicting disaster now for years: pretty much all through what has been and continues to be an unbelievable bull market. It was either the job market, the debt, Obamacare, foreign affairs, reserve currency issues: you name it- and at least to date, all have been wrong. Not saying that I'm not concerned as I am, although the general economic improvements seem to outweigh the other items, at least for the moment. Heck, there has to be a correction sometime, I just don't know when.
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
September 20th, 2013 at 6:36:46 AM
permalink
Quote: mickeycrimmI just read online that billionaires like Buffet, Soros, etc., are quietly dumping their stocks expecting another big stock market correction. Google "Billionaires Dumping Stocks." Does anyone know if this is true, or just some type of sales pitch?
Odiusgambit correctly notes that some market advisor or other is always calling "crash" because he knows that sooner or later he will be right and will be able to crow about it.
Don't believe reports on what big investors are doing with their own money. They have to file reports only if they are officers or directors of a company or own 10% or more of a company's stock and only with respect to that stock. Warren Buffett is required to report only on his holdings of Berkshire Hathaway stock, not with respect to his other holdings unless his owns 10% or more. Berkshire Hathaway itself is required to report only annually.
While one billionaire is selling, another may be buying. They generally do not publicize their dealings unless they want to move the market. This was done by Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management L.P. In December of 2012 his staff prepared a convincing report concluding that Herbalife Inc. runs an illegal pyramid scheme and he announced that he was shorting the stock, which immediately dropped from 45 to 25.
A pyramid scheme is an illegal marketing plan similar to a chain letter. Only the people at the top of the pyramid make money. The FTC has the power to shut such operations down and has done so in the past. Ackman was betting that they would do so again but didn't have the lobbying power to make it happen. Other investors, including some big ones, ignored the report and started buying. Recently HLF has been making all-time highs and Ackman is over $500 Mil. in the red on his short position. Even the billionaires sometimes make bad moves.
A small investor cannot afford to hold a short position in a steadily rising stock because sooner or later he will exhaust his margin and be forced to cover at a loss. I am rooting for Bill Ackman because he keeps management on its toes and because he has announced his intention of donating his Harbalife profits, if any, to charity.
September 20th, 2013 at 6:56:53 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddsi was speculating on some stocks ($100k). i was up 40k in a couple of months.
i was going to sell at 50k profit.
but the market tanked and i'm back to break even 6months later.
when would you have sold the stocks?
or at least what would your stop-loss set point be? WHY?
oh geez.. my thread got revived and what timing...
well, I held onto most of those stocks. rode it from +$40k to -$10k and i'm now at +$90k!!!
my target is now +$100k.
but greed is kicking in.
+$400k is the bare minimum I need to NEVER have to work again.
again, when to sell?
edit:
Quote: Mission146My threshold is usually 20% in either direction. Sirius (Ticker Symbol: SIRI) is an exception to this because I bought it at $0.08/share, and I'm still holding it at $2.095/share because I knew it was way undervalued and still think it is.
Holy.. Siruius is now $4/share
hope u still held?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
September 20th, 2013 at 7:01:49 AM
permalink
Sell when the stock/stocks stop working. Otherwise ride the momentum and add to winning positions. IMHO
Each day is better than the next
September 20th, 2013 at 7:33:58 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOdds
edit:
Holy.. Siruius is now $4/share
hope u still held?
$3.97 at the moment, still haven't sold a single share of it. I still think it is undervalued, but I could be wrong. I would say my goal for Sirius is $5.00/share.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 20th, 2013 at 7:42:07 AM
permalink
Quote: Mission146$3.97 at the moment, still haven't sold a single share of it. I still think it is undervalued, but I could be wrong. I would say my goal for Sirius is $5.00/share.
If you believe in SIRI then consider buying the Jan 15 calls (LEAPS) at the 5 strike. They are priced at .33. This gives you 483 days to be right.
Each day is better than the next
September 20th, 2013 at 7:46:48 AM
permalink
Quote: treetopbuddyIf you believe in SIRI then consider buying the Jan 15 calls (LEAPS) at the 5 strike. They are priced at .33. This gives you 483 days to be right.
wished I knew how to do options.
any videos you suggest?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
September 20th, 2013 at 7:54:21 AM
permalink
Quote: treetopbuddyIf you believe in SIRI then consider buying the Jan 15 calls (LEAPS) at the 5 strike. They are priced at .33. This gives you 483 days to be right.
I don't know anything about any of that, and am not interested in doing anything except straight up buying shares.
But, not shares in Sirius, even though you should. I already made my money (even though I haven't sold yet) on that one, so why risk anything else?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 20th, 2013 at 7:55:19 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddswished I knew how to do options.
any videos you suggest?
You too busy with your T.V. appearances to master option trading :-) saw you on CNBC. Stick to sticking it to your clients Ex. Read and thoroughly understand...Options as a Strategic Investment by Lawrence G. McMillan and you will be well on you way.
Each day is better than the next
September 20th, 2013 at 7:59:56 AM
permalink
Quote: 100xOddswished I knew how to do options.
any videos you suggest?
To quote a friend of mine who used to be an options trader for a major house "only about 5% of the traders make any money at this". I would say that you probably wouldn't want to do anything with these unless you're just using it in trying to hedge a position. Just my 2 cents.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
September 20th, 2013 at 8:05:15 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoTo quote a friend of mine who used to be an options trader for a major house "only about 5% of the traders make any money at this". I would say that you probably wouldn't want to do anything with these unless you're just using it in trying to hedge a position. Just my 2 cents.
Your friend obviously was not one of the 5%.......how can only 5% make money when there are two sides to every trade?
Each day is better than the next
September 20th, 2013 at 8:06:36 AM
permalink
Do some research and you'll find that, though a bit exaggerated, he's close to correct.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
September 20th, 2013 at 8:12:32 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoDo some research and you'll find that, though a bit exaggerated, he's close to correct.
I've done my research. Apparently you ignored my "two sides to every trade" comment. Stick to fantasy picking horses, sports and stocks.
Each day is better than the next
September 20th, 2013 at 8:27:11 AM
permalink
Wow. Angry little guy, aren't you? Good Luck! You'll need it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
September 20th, 2013 at 8:35:42 AM
permalink
Quote: steeldcoWow. Angry little guy, aren't you? Good Luck! You'll need it.
Really look forward to your horse picks, sports picks and stock picks. Riveting posts. Keep up the truly insightful, groundbreaking work that you provide the forum. steeldco the Greek!
Each day is better than the next
