MauiSunset Roulette
As I mentioned earlier, its about moderating. I'll add pay per visit also.
Recap so far:
The stated Roulette HA of 5.26% is calculated for each type of bet and can be summarized for the game of Roulette by taking the 0 and 00 numbers and saying that they represent slots on the Roulette wheel that represent a loss and dividing that by 38 the total number of slots on the wheel 2/38 = 5.26%.
I hope everyone agrees to this because that is what I theorize is not correct.
To put it another way:
(slots on the wheel that under no circumstances can you ever consider them available for the ball to land on and count as a winning bet)/
(slots on the wheel that MUST be available for the ball to land on)
2/38 represents the HA of 5.26% which you lose on every bet.
But what if some of those 38 slots already have a ball in them? Lets say 14 black balls belonging to a 3rd party, call him Randy?
Would that change the game of Roulette?
1) You MUST pick your bet first and put your chips down
2) Randy then rolls all 14 black balls (Randy is invisible and so are his 14 black balls - you can't see them but they are there)
3) The white ball is then rolled by the dealer
Would that change your odds of winning?
Would that change the HA? The Hold?
Would the "Win Percentage" be larger with the 14 black balls being spun?
Well I believe I can make a case for those 14 black balls being spun before the dealer spins the white ball.
That's my theory and I'll go further into describing those 14 black balls in the next installment; I'll talk about Randy.
Have fun guys, because I sure am............
Quote: MauiSunsetHere goes 10 minutes today:
Recap so far:
The stated Roulette HA of 5.26% is calculated for each type of bet and can be summarized for the game of Roulette by taking the 0 and 00 numbers and saying that they represent slots on the Roulette wheel that represent a loss and dividing that by 38 the total number of slots on the wheel 2/38 = 5.26%.
I hope everyone agrees to this because that is what I theorize is not correct.
To put it another way:
(slots on the wheel that under no circumstances can you ever consider them available for the ball to land on and count as a winning bet)/
(slots on the wheel that MUST be available for the ball to land on)
2/38 represents the HA of 5.26% which you lose on every bet.
But what if some of those 38 slots already have a ball in them? Lets say 14 black balls belonging to a 3rd party, call him Randy?
Would that change the game of Roulette?
1) You MUST pick your bet first and put your chips down
2) Randy then rolls all 14 black balls (Randy is invisible and so are his 14 black balls - you can't see them but they are there)
3) The white ball is then rolled by the dealer
Would that change your odds of winning?
Would that change the HA? The Hold?
Would the "Win Percentage" be larger with the 14 black balls being spun?
Well I believe I can make a case for those 14 black balls being spun before the dealer spins the white ball.
That's my theory and I'll go further into describing those 14 black balls in the next installment; I'll talk about Randy.
Have fun guys, because I sure am............
Your theory is that an imaginary guy named Randy has placed invisible balls in some of the available pockets? Oh boy! That sure does explain a lot...
Maui is about to suggest fourteen of the numbers wont hit due to the "law of the thirds".
If the black balls are not random, then one would be able to use that knowledge to lower the house edge. In no case can I see how the house edge for a thity eight slot machine would increase above 2/38, with the payoffs used. Which by the way are easily seen to be from the fair odds if it there was no 0/00 on the wheel.
Maui should spend nine hours studying the game....
Quote: MauiSunsetHere goes 10 minutes today:
Why do you now only give us 10 minutes a day. You use to give us several hours a day, that is, until Evenbob exposed your payout table, etc...
Is it the aerospace engineering? Is that taking all of your time now? Is it because you're engineering a new invisible
hypersonic re-entry vehicle using your amazing mad math skills?
Quote: thecesspit
Maui should spend nine hours studying the game....
Ken is gone, but not forgotten, LOL. Maui isn't serious,
he now knows he mistook the hold for the edge and
instead of admitting he reinvented the game because
of it, he's going to go really bonkers now and rub our
faces in it. But its not working, he knows what he did,
and we know what he did, and what else needs to be
said. Its pretty dang funny.
Don't you just hate that? Doesn't it drive you up the wall?
Well, I'm going on another 2 week vacation right this minute; heading out the door as I press "post" - and will continue this presentation when I get back and get caught up - making time for 10 minute breaks is so hard on vacation. Good news is that I just bring my Samsung 7" tablet and practice Roulette and cook up more theories and if you like I'll present them here too - just ask.
So I'll be thinking of you guys while on the beach - really.......
Enjoy the 2 weeks free of theory torture by Maui .
Quote: MauiSunset
To put it another way:
(slots on the wheel that under no circumstances can you ever consider them available for the ball to land on and count as a winning bet)/
(slots on the wheel that MUST be available for the ball to land on)
2/38 represents the HA of 5.26% which you lose on every bet.
This is where you are wrong. The house edge calculation has nothing to do with the number of zeroes. It is just a coincidence the "2" in the nominator happens to be that in this case. In any case, surely, both single, and double zero are "available for the ball to land on and count as a winning bet", as well as any other slot.
The way house edge is calculated is ((amount received in case of a win) * (probability of a win) - (amount bet) * (probability of a loss))/(amount bet).
Assuming you bet 1 unit, and receive 35 in case of a win, this turns into: (35/38 - 37/38) = -2/38
Quote:
But what if some of those 38 slots already have a ball in them? Lets say 14 black balls belonging to a 3rd party, call him Randy?
Would that change the game of Roulette?
1) You MUST pick your bet first and put your chips down
2) Randy then rolls all 14 black balls (Randy is invisible and so are his 14 black balls - you can't see them but they are there)
3) The white ball is then rolled by the dealer
Would that change your odds of winning?
Would that change the HA? The Hold?
Would the "Win Percentage" be larger with the 14 black balls being spun?
Believe it or not, no, it would not.
To see why, imagine that Randy deploys just one ball, instead of 14. What is the probability that it will not take the slot you picked? It is 37/38. What is the probability that the "real ball" then will? Well, there are only 37 slots available for it to hit now, so it is 1/37. So, overall, what is the probability of your winning? 37/38*1/37 = 1/38 - same as it would be if Randy did not exist.
Now imagine, that Randy uses 37 balls in the same manner, not just 14. What is the probability that the slot you picked will be empty for the "real" ball to land on? It is the probability that fist Randy's ball does not land on it, times the probability that hist second ball does not, etc.:
37/38 * 36/37 * 35/36 * ... 1/2
Note how every nominator is the same as the next denominator, so they all cancel out except for the last 1 and the first 38. So, the probability of you winning your bet is still the same - 1/38.
Now, if only 14 balls are deployed instead of 37, the calculation is a bit more complicated, but result is the same - it does not change the probability of your win, and, since it is the only parameter in the forumla for house edge I showed you above, does not affect the house edge either.
Simply put, Randy does not matter here. Or, in other words, his action has already been taken into account when the probability of a win was calculated.
It seems the "expert" is getting criticized for ignoring basic gambling math terminology and some "creative accounting" type math.
Quote: MauiSunset
Well, I'm going on another 2 week vacation right this minute; ...
LOL, only 2 weeks? I would think you need a month.
Thats OK, we aren't going anywhere, glad to take
this up again whenever it is you log back in. Been
reading that roulette site of yours and there are some
real gem's I found that need explanation. Some real
creative math whoppers.
Without any evidence or testing of your theories, they aren't "theories", just unworked on hypotheses.
Quote: thecesspitTheories are all well and good. But applying some simple tools and tests them can avoid you heading down a road that's a dead end and a fetid swamp.
Without any evidence or testing of your theories, they aren't "theories", just unworked on hypotheses.
Hypotheses is a 10 letter word. Beyond my vocabulary. Does is mean the same as delusions ?
Quote: buzzpaffHypotheses is a 10 letter word. Beyond my vocabulary. Does is mean the same as delusions ?
Probably meant hypnosis. As in, you stare into the wheel long enough to get hypnotized and eventually believe that you can control where the ball lands by just staring harder.
Quote: heatherProbably meant hypnosis. As in, you stare into the wheel long enough to get hypnotized and eventually believe that you can control where the ball lands by just staring harder.
Not just staring harder. You also need to think loudly on where you want the ball to land. But you mustn't say it aloud, even in a silent whisper, or you'll jinx it.
Quote: thecesspit
Maui should spend nine hours studying the game....
I can't stop laughing.....
vacation and wouldn't be able to give us any more insight into his
website until he returned. But I couldn't help noticing that he's
logged into WoV every single day since he left, if you look at the
who's visited today, there's his name right now. I've checked it
every day since he left, so he obviously has web access and I can
continue the discussion.
He says on his site about his 'super secret chart':
"I’ve constructed the following chart that you must memorize or print
out and take with you to the Roulette table – it is something that no
one else at the table knows about and that has never been published
before – my gift to you. I’m not going to delve into the math since that
represents years of research and I’m not telling anyone how the numbers
are arrived at – just believe me that there is a lot of statistics behind
those simple numbers."
This chart fascinates me. You say roulette can be beaten by using
it. Can you go into some of the math behind it and explain exactly
how it beats the house edge? Thanks in advance, Maui.
Quote: buzzpaffGee BOB. it's seems so obvious !
I'm finding it confusing. Like where do you place the
bets.
I'd also be interested in learning how this chart could possibly allow one to overcome the house edge.
edge than the rest of roulettes bets.
the forum yet again today. Am I wrong, if you can log
in, you can also post, right? I know of no device that only
lets you interact one way. What are we to assume, then.
Its very puzzling. You'd thimk he'd want to defend and
explain his positions.
Quote: EvenBobYup, there's Maui's name on the roster as having visited
the forum yet again today. Am I wrong, if you can log
in, you can also post, right? I know of no device that only
lets you interact one way. What are we to assume, then.
Its very puzzling. You'd thimk he'd want to defend and
explain his positions.
Why?
Maybe he's happy with his statements, and it's up to you to disprove them.
Quote: thecesspitWhy?
Maybe he's happy with his statements, and it's up to you to disprove them.
Hey, he's the one that posted the address of his site in
another thread and said he wants to discuss roulette.
I took him at his word, but so far its been like pulling
teeth. I'm almost starting to think he's avoiding the
discussion on purpose. As a self proclaimed roulette
expert, what is he afraid of?
Quote: EvenBobHey, he's the one that posted the address of his site in
another thread and said he wants to discuss roulette.
I took him at his word, but so far its been like pulling
teeth. I'm almost starting to think he's avoiding the
discussion on purpose. As a self proclaimed roulette
expert, what is he afraid of?
Well, if you're REALLY looking to discuss roulette, try visiting his site. But if you're just looking for a fight, then keep baiting him like you are here.
But I suspect you don't give a rat's ass about roulette...
Quote: FarFromVegas
But I suspect you don't give a rat's ass about roulette...
Roulette is all I do, its all I play, its my life's passion. If
I'm not in the casino playing it, I'm in my home office playing
it. This isn't news on WoV. But thanks for your kind remarks.
Quote: EvenBobYup, there's Maui's name on the roster as having visited
the forum yet again today. Am I wrong, if you can log
in, you can also post, right? I know of no device that only
lets you interact one way. What are we to assume, then.
Its very puzzling. You'd thimk he'd want to defend and
explain his positions.
Just a thought, but I also do this on vacay. I log in to read, but no matter how interested in a discussion I am or how much I can contribute, typing on a smartphone is enough to drive me to tears. If I can't reply in a sentence or two, I don't at all. Maybe he has the same problem?
Quote: FaceJust a thought, but I also do this on vacay. I log in to read, but no matter how interested in a discussion I am or how much I can contribute, typing on a smartphone is enough to drive me to tears. If I can't reply in a sentence or two, I don't at all. Maybe he has the same problem?
\
I'm sure thats it. Thanks for clearing it up.
1) You MUST pick your bet first and put your chips down
2) Randy then rolls all 14 black balls (Randy is invisible and so are his 14 black balls - you can't see them but they are there)
3) The white ball is then rolled by the dealer
Would that change your odds of winning?
Would that change the HA? The Hold?
Would the "Win Percentage" be larger with the 14 black balls being spun?
Well I believe I can make a case for those 14 black balls being spun before the dealer spins the white ball.
That's my theory and I'll go further into describing those 14 black balls in the next installment; I'll talk about Randy.
Quote: buzzpaffRandy is invisible and so are his 14 black balls - .
Randy really needs to see a specialist. 14 black balls
is not normal.
weeks vacay and he hasn't posted since. He does check
into the forum almost every day, he was here yesterday.
Because he refuses to explain his math and his conclusions,
I have no other choice than to dismiss them as poppycock.
So sorry..
I love poppycock... the candied popcornQuote: EvenBobI have no other choice than to dismiss them as poppycock.
Is that what you meant?
You are a sweet man
I like a line from his website on playing and quitting while up.
"The target winnings is a number you must NOT ignore –
if you get close to that target then cash in and walk away from the table with a smile on your face."
Close? Again. Close?
A target win of $60. (EC with $5 wagers)
I know $55 is close.
I also like $50, that looks close to me.
So is $10. I love money of any value.
$10 is closer than $5 and $0
Even $5 is closer than $0
With a $180 bankroll and 100 spins the probability of winning at least $5 betting $5 EC is only
about 86.2% simulated. Close?
(13.8% chance of having $180 or less. I also show about a 4.48% chance of having less than $100 left after 100 spins and not ever being ahead by $5)
exact calculation: 86.41%
About a 11.4% chance of hitting that magic $60 win target.
But again, the author states
"The target winnings is a number you must NOT ignore –
if you get close to that target then cash in and walk away from the table with a smile on your face."
Maybe his two week vacation is just close.
He is close to coming back and posting.
Maybe we are not close enough.
Sally
Quote: mustangsally
"The target winnings is a number you must NOT ignore –
if you get close to that target then cash in and walk away from the table with a smile on your face."
Yes, he has one of the most entertaining roulette
sites I've seen. So much misinformation in one
place, its quite astounding.
"entertaining"Quote: EvenBobYes, he has one of the most entertaining roulette
sites I've seen. So much misinformation in one
place, its quite astounding.
OK.
I did not look at it that way.
It did make me smile and laugh!
Not only the misinformation, that lack of any real information backed by simple math.
He says:
"I’ve constructed the following chart that you must memorize or print out and take with you to the Roulette table –
it is something that no one else at the table knows about and that has never been published before –
my gift to you.
I’m not going to delve into the math since that represents years of research
and I’m not telling anyone how the numbers are arrived at –
just believe me that there is a lot of statistics behind those simple numbers."
http://www.roulettestrategytowin.com/beat-roulette-with-this-table/
This is very funny...
my 11 y/o cousin can easily do all the math on his site in one day, IF we pay him $20 and some candy!
It might take me two days if someone paid me only $20.
Got to love the young ones
MauiSunset does make people smile and laugh.
But should people play the way he does and recommend?
Debate is still open there.
hehe
Sally
Quote: mustangsally"entertaining"
OK. I did not look at it that way.
It did make me smile and laugh!
Then you were entertained. Everytime I go there
I see a tidbit of golden doo doo that I missed
before. I really don't think he's ever played the
game.
Quote: buzzpaffYou really need to upgrade you membership to Platinum to get the really good stuff.
You first.
"By “Beating Roulette” I mean that over the long run you do the best that mathematics tells us – basically losing the HA." - Where I come from, we call that "breaking not quite even at roulette," or maybe just "losing at roulette."
"This table will work with ANY crazy betting scheme you can think of – as long as you use flat betting of $5 per spin, you can use a positive progression if you wish (bet more than minimum bet with any winnings you might have)." - You can have the Model T in any color, as long as it's black. Or, as long as it's still black, you can have it in beige.
interested in explaining himself on this forum
and will only answer questions on his own
site, where nobody will read his answers.
Adios Mr Sunset.
