Boz
Boz
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February 5th, 2012 at 9:50:21 AM permalink
The stock starts trading this week (CZR) and CNBC is saying it will open between $8 & $10 a share. With the debt load they have and no Asian locations, I dont see much opportunity here. Anyone else?
Wizard
Administrator
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February 5th, 2012 at 10:04:49 AM permalink
That is a fair about no presence in Asia, which is where the big profits are. However, I would like to say that I owed Harrah's stock from about 1998 to 2001. In that time it did very well, I think the best stock I ever owned. Sometime after that they were no longer traded (what is the term for that?).

You also have to give them credit for their business plan of buying troubled properties at fire sale prices. Their casino in Punta del Este, Uruguay, I was very impressed with.

Sorry for being vague. Without looking at any specific numbers my hunch is that their stock is a good long-term buy.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
s2dbaker
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February 5th, 2012 at 11:14:25 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

The stock starts trading this week (CZR) and CNBC is saying it will open between $8 & $10 a share. With the debt load they have and no Asian locations, I dont see much opportunity here. Anyone else?

It's no wonder I can't get a slot machine to pay out here! Harrah's management is trying to juice their numbers ahead on the IPO.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Boz
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February 5th, 2012 at 12:19:32 PM permalink
Here is a link to a story about it. Most of what I have read is how small of a percentage of the company is being made available. I do believe the best thing they have going for them is brand loyalty and so many people from local CZR casinos think of them first when traveling to Vegas and other cities. They provide easy comp rooms, which is all many people see while missing the poor table game rules.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/02/02/bloomberg_articlesLYRNOO6JTSEC01-LYSA9.DTL
AcesAndEights
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February 6th, 2012 at 7:50:54 AM permalink
Hmmm, tough call. As a gambler, I really dislike Harrah's/Caeser's because of the (in general) terrible table game rules. But as a potential investor, I know the bad rules will pad their bottom line and the casual tourist won't know the difference.

I am not a serious investor, but given that we are (hopefully) coming out of this little recession, I have been considering putting some of my savings in the stock market. Probably better to just buy up an S&P500 index fund, but it's tempting to try to find individual undervalued stocks and buy them. I probably shouldn't give in to the temptation since I don't actually know what I'm doing.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
RaleighCraps
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February 8th, 2012 at 12:00:19 PM permalink
Sooooo, CZR opens at $9 and, defying all reason, is trading at $16, up >70%.
Just goes to show that sometimes bad bets do pay off. Anyone want to claim they made this bet today ?
I sure didn't.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
rdw4potus
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February 8th, 2012 at 12:30:20 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Sooooo, CZR opens at $9 and, defying all reason, is trading at $16, up >70%.
Just goes to show that sometimes bad bets do pay off. Anyone want to claim they made this bet today ?
I sure didn't.



I take the over on IPOs pretty regularly. It's almost a sure thing. I stayed out of this one, though - I already give CZR enough of my money:-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Paradigm
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February 8th, 2012 at 1:43:31 PM permalink
LVS or WYNN are way better stocks to own in the space. The only question with CZR is when is the right time to short this stock. It will be under its IPO price by this time next year, IMHO.
teddys
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February 8th, 2012 at 1:54:29 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

Sooooo, CZR opens at $9 and, defying all reason, is trading at $16, up >70%.
Just goes to show that sometimes bad bets do pay off. Anyone want to claim they made this bet today ?
I sure didn't.

Heh. Only makes sense if you bought and sold your position today. I think the "buy and hold" investors will have a tougher time of it.

By the way, Sands is up from $1.99 to $50 a share since the depth of the bust in 2008. So there's a longer-term example.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
slyther
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February 9th, 2012 at 9:59:20 AM permalink
No CZR shares available for shorting at my broker yet.
Scotty71
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February 9th, 2012 at 10:39:43 AM permalink
I trade and invest for a living..IMHO the offering was a joke. It was such a small raise (18-19MM) and was only floated to get the stock trading for the endless stream of secondary offerings likely to follow. There are absolutely no lock ups on the institutional holders (private equity and hedge funds) to sell stock. This is not a cheap stock but you wont be able to short it because there just isn't any out there to lend. The best bet is to wait until they trade options on it and buy some puts if you think its too expensive.

22BB in debt and no Macau exposure, I say stay away for now. If they actually start increasing cash flow and paying down debt then you could see a nice effect on earnings. 12x EBITDA is way to expensive for this company compared to say WYNN at 10.5x EBITDA

Bloomberg Article
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because." — E.E. Cummings
Paradigm
Paradigm
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February 9th, 2012 at 12:38:48 PM permalink
I don't see any Put Options available yet, but those will come for sure. Lower risk way to play the downside of course you have to get the timing right :-)!!
Tiltpoul
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February 9th, 2012 at 1:35:50 PM permalink
I'm not an investor, and I only have a small working knowledge of how the markets work. I am, however, a Caesars player and know a bit about the company.

My gut feeling tells me they have something in the works and need a bit of cash flow to get that going. This company has gone private, then public, then back to private again. Perhaps they are looking at another buyout or merger (Boyd, maybe?) or the acquisition of some distressed properties (Isle of Capri). Again, this isn't based on any knowledge, but I guess I don't see any other reason to go public.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
rdw4potus
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February 9th, 2012 at 1:40:23 PM permalink
Bloomberg TV just ran a spot. We watch at work with the sound muted, but it appears that CZR is looking at selling some midwest/MS properties in order to finance a potential entrance into MA and/or FL. I'm not sure what to think about that. On the one hand, those are my favorite CZR properties. On the otherhand, they can't really get worse under new management.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
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