Will Nevada see $13 billion again
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 | 8 votes (17.39%) | ||
| | 27 votes (58.69%) | ||
| | 11 votes (23.91%) |
46 members have voted
February 12th, 2011 at 6:18:26 AM
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Vegas should be booming again very soon, invest wisely and reap the rewards.
February 12th, 2011 at 8:00:44 AM
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Quote: JIMMYFOCKERVegas should be booming again very soon, invest wisely and reap the rewards.
What do you base this on?
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February 12th, 2011 at 8:13:59 AM
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Quote: CroupierWhat do you base this on?
Have you seen the change in the stock price of Wynn, or LVSands since last spring. We may have missed an excellent investmetn oppurtunity.
Still room to grow.
SFB
February 12th, 2011 at 9:44:55 AM
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Quote: SFBHave you seen the change in the stock price of Wynn, or LVSands since last spring. We may have missed an excellent investmetn oppurtunity.
Still room to grow.
SFB
I think the change in stock price has been mainly down to whats happening in Macau. I dont know if this has any relevance to whats going on in Vegas. Pacomartin knows a hell of a lot more about this than I do, so maybe he can explain the correlation or lac thereof.
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February 12th, 2011 at 9:50:13 AM
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Quote: CroupierWhat do you base this on?
Recent report and unscholared negativity from humans.
February 12th, 2011 at 1:58:09 PM
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Quote: SFBHave you seen the change in the stock price of Wynn, or LVSands since last spring. We may have missed an excellent investmetn oppurtunity.
Still room to grow.
SFB
LVSands is now drawing less than 8% of it's gaming revenue from Las Vegas and a much smaller percentage of it's profits. They want to change their name removing any explicit mention of Las Vegas or "Sands corporation" (a reference a decreasing number of people worldwide understand anymore). Wynn has not made any money in Vegas in about 10 business quarters. I agree that there is "still room to grow" in worldwide gaming, but not in Vegas or Nevada.
The gaming commission released it's annual abstract covering the last fiscal year (ends on Jun 30th). The is an article , Nevada casinos report $3.4 billion loss in 2010 in the Las Vegas Review Journal.
The loss of $3.433 billion is better than the loss of $6.778 last year, but the improvement wasn't due to a jump in revenues or spending by customers. Casino operators wrote down the value of their assets by about $3.5 billion less than they did in the previous fiscal year.
For the 12th straight year, non-gaming revenue outstrips gaming revenue on the Vegas Strip (by 57%), although for the rest of the state gaming revenue is 66% higher than non-gaming revenue at the casino. Strip casinos suffered a large drop in rooms and in retail and entertainment, but they were able to sell more booze, enough to offset the drop in food sales as more and more people go for city wide buffets and snacks.
Write downs are spectacular. On the Boulder strip write downs are so huge, that they are the kinds of numbers you would normally see after a huge fire or an explosion damaged the property.
March 10th, 2011 at 1:45:11 PM
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Statewide Gaming Revenue for the 12 months ending January 2011 was $10.398 billion which is very close ($13 million) to the rock bottom of $10,285 billion set in July 2010.
There is a very high probability that this February's baccarat revenue will fall short of the record breaking $207 million earned last February for Chinese New Year's. Factors include Vegas now has to compete with Singapore, and Las Vegas Sands has terminated most of it's comps for the Vegas location. Usually if it's a stunning month the casinos leak that information to the press far in advance of the official numbers (and I haven't seen any leaks).
So if the state falls $13 million short of last February's record breaking numbers, then Nevada will set a new bottom for the last 40 months. There is even a possibility that the strip will fall $92 million short of last February's numbers. Then the strip will also set a new bottom for the last 40 months.
If baccarat begins to fall to it's pre-recession levels of less than $1 billion per year, then it is pretty safe to assume that the big players have moved on to Singapore. With increased competition from Ohio, Florida, Japan, Vietnam, and possibly Europe Nevada may not reach it's former peak of $13 billion for a long time.
There is a very high probability that this February's baccarat revenue will fall short of the record breaking $207 million earned last February for Chinese New Year's. Factors include Vegas now has to compete with Singapore, and Las Vegas Sands has terminated most of it's comps for the Vegas location. Usually if it's a stunning month the casinos leak that information to the press far in advance of the official numbers (and I haven't seen any leaks).
So if the state falls $13 million short of last February's record breaking numbers, then Nevada will set a new bottom for the last 40 months. There is even a possibility that the strip will fall $92 million short of last February's numbers. Then the strip will also set a new bottom for the last 40 months.
If baccarat begins to fall to it's pre-recession levels of less than $1 billion per year, then it is pretty safe to assume that the big players have moved on to Singapore. With increased competition from Ohio, Florida, Japan, Vietnam, and possibly Europe Nevada may not reach it's former peak of $13 billion for a long time.
March 10th, 2011 at 1:50:11 PM
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I'm not worried about gaming revenues, but I am a little worried about the cowboy poetry festival sustainability.
May 10th, 2011 at 8:59:00 PM
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Ceasar's unveils plans to develop non-gaming hotels restaurants,
MGM Resorts to develop hotel sites in New Delhi,
Cosmopolitan 10-K says $4.3 million in gaming revenue for first 17 days of operations, vs $14 million of non-gaming,
Ventian and Palazzo radically cut comps at the Las Vegas operations.
Las Vegas Sands earns $83.1 m in gaming revenue at Venetian and Palazzo combined for first quarter of 2011 vs. $155m last year, and $94.708 for first quarter of 2004 years before Palazzo was built. But reductions in comps and other cost savings measures means profit only drops $10 million from last year.
Wynn/Encore on the other hand had record numbers for gaming revenue for the first quarter
2011 $194,245,000
2010 $139,510,000
2009 $117,481,000 <-- opened Wynn Encore 22 Dec 2008
2008 $125,134,000
2007 $173,093,000
2006 $126,514,000
2005 not open
I'm thinking that the corporations have essentially given up on gambling as a source of growth at Nevada.
MGM Resorts to develop hotel sites in New Delhi,
Cosmopolitan 10-K says $4.3 million in gaming revenue for first 17 days of operations, vs $14 million of non-gaming,
Ventian and Palazzo radically cut comps at the Las Vegas operations.
Las Vegas Sands earns $83.1 m in gaming revenue at Venetian and Palazzo combined for first quarter of 2011 vs. $155m last year, and $94.708 for first quarter of 2004 years before Palazzo was built. But reductions in comps and other cost savings measures means profit only drops $10 million from last year.
Wynn/Encore on the other hand had record numbers for gaming revenue for the first quarter
2011 $194,245,000
2010 $139,510,000
2009 $117,481,000 <-- opened Wynn Encore 22 Dec 2008
2008 $125,134,000
2007 $173,093,000
2006 $126,514,000
2005 not open
I'm thinking that the corporations have essentially given up on gambling as a source of growth at Nevada.
July 13th, 2011 at 10:48:09 PM
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Stellar Performance in May 2011
Vegas had it's strongest month in years for May. Statewide for the last 12 months is up to $10.51 billion (up from $10.36 billion last month).
The strip is up a whopping 49.6% in table games led by 130% increase in baccarat revenue. Slots are up over 11% leading to an overall increase of 28.93%.
Downtown had another up month in slots. Lake Tahoe did excellent.
It's hard to see any bad news except that Vegas is still dependent on the wildly uneven baccarat. That may be a permanent . Reno and Laughlin continued to do poorly.
It's now 43 months from the state high of nearly $13 billion. A couple of dozen months like May, and the state could reacquire it's old peak.
Macau reached $15.2 billion in the first 6 months of 2011.
At this rate the Vegas strip should go above $6 billion for the calendar year. Which won't keep it ahead of Singapore which is projected at $6.4 billion. The strip peaked at just short of $7 billion in the 12 months ending October 2007.
Vegas had it's strongest month in years for May. Statewide for the last 12 months is up to $10.51 billion (up from $10.36 billion last month).
The strip is up a whopping 49.6% in table games led by 130% increase in baccarat revenue. Slots are up over 11% leading to an overall increase of 28.93%.
Downtown had another up month in slots. Lake Tahoe did excellent.
It's hard to see any bad news except that Vegas is still dependent on the wildly uneven baccarat. That may be a permanent . Reno and Laughlin continued to do poorly.
It's now 43 months from the state high of nearly $13 billion. A couple of dozen months like May, and the state could reacquire it's old peak.
Macau reached $15.2 billion in the first 6 months of 2011.
At this rate the Vegas strip should go above $6 billion for the calendar year. Which won't keep it ahead of Singapore which is projected at $6.4 billion. The strip peaked at just short of $7 billion in the 12 months ending October 2007.
July 13th, 2011 at 11:44:22 PM
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I've no particular place to post this. But it kinda feels like pacomartin subject matter.
City Center, Bezo, Longoria
City Center, Bezo, Longoria
Sanitized for Your Protection
July 14th, 2011 at 2:50:43 AM
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Restaurants at Palms and MonteCarlo also filed bankruptcy petitions even though they are doing well and the real dispute is between Rochat and one of his banks.
The Longoria troubles seem to involve more than just an Upscale restaurant in an upscale resort when in reality the resort is no longer upscale and its shopping area is often empty. It seems Longoria got cheated by people she trusted and she may not have realized she was taking a risk in a bad location inside the Hype..oops Crystals shopping complex. She should have licensed her name to a restaurant or owned it in secret, but never done everything wrong of mistrusted associates, bad location, bad timing.
Some of the fallout from the recession is a boon to the lawyers.
As for general recovery, I don't know. It seems an awful lot of bargains are available. Casinos giving away meal credits and free play and free rooms in the hope that the recipient might spend some time gambling. This may bring up the casino revenue figures but it sure is strange to call any one part of something a "recovery"'. These StayCationers are getting great bargains for room and food and freeplay and then the casinos trumpet the fact that they got some action in the casino. Yes, they did get action in the casino but they've purchased it at a higher cost than they've ever had to pay before.
Perhaps there is a saturation level and the availability of casinos all over the place means Vegas growth will really slow down because the casino "recovery" is being purchased at a very high price.
The Longoria troubles seem to involve more than just an Upscale restaurant in an upscale resort when in reality the resort is no longer upscale and its shopping area is often empty. It seems Longoria got cheated by people she trusted and she may not have realized she was taking a risk in a bad location inside the Hype..oops Crystals shopping complex. She should have licensed her name to a restaurant or owned it in secret, but never done everything wrong of mistrusted associates, bad location, bad timing.
Some of the fallout from the recession is a boon to the lawyers.
As for general recovery, I don't know. It seems an awful lot of bargains are available. Casinos giving away meal credits and free play and free rooms in the hope that the recipient might spend some time gambling. This may bring up the casino revenue figures but it sure is strange to call any one part of something a "recovery"'. These StayCationers are getting great bargains for room and food and freeplay and then the casinos trumpet the fact that they got some action in the casino. Yes, they did get action in the casino but they've purchased it at a higher cost than they've ever had to pay before.
Perhaps there is a saturation level and the availability of casinos all over the place means Vegas growth will really slow down because the casino "recovery" is being purchased at a very high price.
July 14th, 2011 at 7:50:21 AM
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Quote: pacomartin
At this rate the Vegas strip should go above $6 billion for the calendar year. Which won't keep it ahead of Singapore which is projected at $6.4 billion. The strip peaked at just short of $7 billion in the 12 months ending October 2007.
Do you see the Singapore government removing the $100 entry fee for Singapore citizens and permanent residents some time in the future? I was there last week and to me it didn't seem like it was much of a deterrent as in the five minutes or so I was lined up to go in the foreigner entrance they had nearly as many people enter through the locals line. It seemed similar at both Marina Bay Sands and Resort World Sentosa. From my obviously limited experience it would seem perhaps that it does very little to keep out those locals with any reasonable amount of money.
On the casinos themselves I didn't find either to be very appealing. Not much more than giant halls filled with 200+ Baccarat tables set out in long row after long row. There are a few other games/slots as well but the vast majority is Baccarat.
July 14th, 2011 at 11:08:03 AM
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Quote: AussieDo you see the Singapore government removing the $100 entry fee for Singapore citizens and permanent residents some time in the future? I was there last week and to me it didn't seem like it was much of a deterrent as in the five minutes or so I was lined up to go in the foreigner entrance they had nearly as many people enter through the locals line.
Austria used to simply ban locals from the casinos. You needed a passport to get into the casino. It's much more effective than a $100 (US$82) fee.
I am very cynical about "vice taxes" in general. The government never wants to set them high enough to significantly modify behavior (like $500 fee). They set them just high enough so that they become significant part of the tax base. That goes for tobacco, alcohol, or any other gaming tax. I think the casinos may try and negotiate with the government so that they give them a flat fee if they abolish the entry fee.
July 14th, 2011 at 11:54:56 AM
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Quote: pacomartinAustria used to simply ban locals from the casinos. You needed a passport to get into the casino. It's much more effective than a $100 (US$82) fee.
I am very cynical about "vice taxes" in general. The government never wants to set them high enough to significantly modify behavior (like $500 fee). They set them just high enough so that they become significant part of the tax base. That goes for tobacco, alcohol, or any other gaming tax. I think the casinos may try and negotiate with the government so that they give them a flat fee if they abolish the entry fee.
Comments by a high ranking government offical lead me to believe that the government in Singapore may actually get more restrictive about letting their citizen's into the casinos rather than making it easier. The government hopes the resorts, amusement park, shopping and convention center will draw outsiders and their money to the CityState, but are very wary of the negative impact gambling will have on their native population. If too many citizen's go bust, the big brother government would not give much thought to raising the entrance fee, capping betting, or putting the outright ban back on.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 14th, 2011 at 6:29:43 PM
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I don't think the government views the $100 entrance fee as a, "sin tax". I think they genuinely intend it as a deterrent to locals. It hasn't worked so far. There has been talk of tripling the daily fee.
Interestingly, the government has also outlawed the junkets that have brought billions to Macau, recognizing that the activity is tied to organized crime. It has not stopped Singapore from approaching the Las Vegas Strip in revenue.
Interestingly, the government has also outlawed the junkets that have brought billions to Macau, recognizing that the activity is tied to organized crime. It has not stopped Singapore from approaching the Las Vegas Strip in revenue.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 14th, 2011 at 6:46:40 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI don't think the government views the $100 entrance fee as a, "sin tax". I think they genuinely intend it as a deterrent to locals. It hasn't worked so far. There has been talk of tripling the daily fee.
That is my definition of a "sin tax". All sin taxes start out as a deterrent. If it's smoking or liquor or even snack food, it is justified since it is believed that it will reduce consumption. A slightly more modern thinking is that it is a punishment. Since people who smoke, drink or eat too much are a greater burden on the public health system, they should be penalized.
At least they were honest about it in Austria. They simply wouldn't let you in no matter how much money you had. As far as they were concerned casinos were for tourists. That may have changed since I was there a long time ago.
Perhaps Singapore does donate all that money to funding gambling addiction and alcohol addiction programs. But it seems to me it is far more common to put it into the public coffers. It's usually perceived as OK if you fund things like education.
July 15th, 2011 at 6:51:30 AM
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An Australian travel writers view of Las Vegas:
View of Las Vegas history and economy from Down Under
View of Las Vegas history and economy from Down Under
July 15th, 2011 at 10:49:39 AM
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San Bernardino county has a population of 2 million. Maybe the populous corner inside the mountain range should split off and join Riverside county, and the bulk of the desert portion should just join up with Nevada. Then I think that NV could push gaming revenue back to $13 billion.
October 12th, 2011 at 7:56:06 AM
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Quote: pacomartinSan Bernardino county has a population of 2 million. Maybe the populous corner inside the mountain range should split off and join Riverside county, and the bulk of the desert portion should just join up with Nevada. Then I think that NV could push gaming revenue back to $13 billion.
Missed this when it was posted originally, but it's a fun what-if. This would add San Manuel and Havasu Landing to Nevada. Are there other CA casinos that are in San Bernardino County? Would we need to add the casinos in Palm Springs/Indio/Coachella along I-10 in Riverside County to help get us up to $13B total for Nevada?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 12th, 2011 at 9:47:54 AM
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Quote: pacomartinWell HAVASU LANDING CASINO is a very small casino only about 7 miles outside of Nevada borders.
Yes, it's also a bear to get to. Even upon finding the property, the casino is past a guard stand and through a campground from the road.
Quote: pacomartin
I didn't think the urban portion of San Bernardino (which includes the San Manuel casino) would like to leave California. The entire county has 2,035,210 people, about the same as Clark County in Nevada. But most of the county is
San Bernardino CCD 807,147
Ontario CCD 615,598
Victorville-Hesperia CCD 370,441
Yucaipa CCD 51,787
Big Bear CCD 25,635
Lake Arrowhead CCD 24,757
Mount Baldy-Wrightwood CCD 6,852
My mistake. I think I misinterpreted the size and shape of the portion of the county that you were proposing to leave in CA. Now I'm confused. How would adding the underpopulated desert to NV help increase gaming revenues back up to the $13B level?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 12th, 2011 at 11:18:16 AM
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Quote: pacomartinAugust 2011: Statewide gaming revenue is $10.61 billion. As usual a poor return in baccarat was driving the numbers.
For quite some time the Strip's Baccarat numbers have been unrepresentative of Nevada gambling but have been more representative of Asian Whale Gambling. Asian Whale Gambling is akin to bus traffic to Whiskey Pete's just inside the border. All those buses bring non-English speaking people whose gambling is very predictable and whose travels are controlled.
All those earlier numbers in Baccarat that gave such hope to the desperately gullible will now give disappointment to the desperately gullible.
Asian Whales are organized. If you want their action you have to buy it.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:30:19 AM
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Quote: rdw4potus
My mistake. I think I misinterpreted the size and shape of the portion of the county that you were proposing to leave in CA. Now I'm confused. How would adding the underpopulated desert to NV help increase gaming revenues back up to the $13B level?
It would allow development in an area where it is possible to come on a day trip from L.A. area. Although I think it is highly unlikely that the nicer areas of the Strip would be reproduced in Barstow, you might end up with a copy of Laughlin.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:06:28 PM
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Quote: pacomartinIt would allow development in an area where it is possible to come on a day trip from L.A. area. Although I think it is highly unlikely that the nicer areas of the Strip would be reproduced in Barstow, you might end up with a copy of Laughlin.
I would say that's somewhat similar to the casino cluster in the Coachella Valley on I-10: Morongo, Fantasy Springs, Spa, Agua Caliente, Spotlight 29, Augustine, Red Earth. Being a little farther south, it'd also be a (long-ish) day trip from San Diego. And applying Nevada's rules to the games at these venues would almost certainly make them more attractive than the local options in L.A. or San Diego.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
December 13th, 2011 at 12:02:36 PM
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How many more new casinos are scheduled to open in
other states in the next 2 years? Dozens, at least. Thats
on top of whats open now. I have 15 casinos within a
2 hour drive from my house. 10 years ago there were
4. How can Vegas ever 'come back' with competition
like that.
Some people I know went to Vegas with their family for
the first time last summer. It blew them away. When
they got back I asked them if they were planning another
visit. They said why on earth would they want to go back,
they already saw it. If they want to gamble, they can do
that locally. That pretty much says it for a lot of people.
Its too expensive, too far away, and is no longer the only
game in town.
other states in the next 2 years? Dozens, at least. Thats
on top of whats open now. I have 15 casinos within a
2 hour drive from my house. 10 years ago there were
4. How can Vegas ever 'come back' with competition
like that.
Some people I know went to Vegas with their family for
the first time last summer. It blew them away. When
they got back I asked them if they were planning another
visit. They said why on earth would they want to go back,
they already saw it. If they want to gamble, they can do
that locally. That pretty much says it for a lot of people.
Its too expensive, too far away, and is no longer the only
game in town.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 13th, 2011 at 1:08:34 PM
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People have to have a reason to go to Vegas. Its certainly
not gaming anymore, they can get that anywhere. So its
restaurants and shows. With more and more local casinos
having great eating choices and building facitities for shows,
what will Vegas have that brings people back.
This reminds me of the big movies vs TV debate back in the
50's. The movies invented VistaVision and PanaVision and 3-D
and put up drive-ins, and none of it worked. The movie
business is a shadow of what it was before TV. Before 1950,
something staggering like 9 out of 10 Americans went to the
movies at least once a week. Vegas is where the movies were
in 1950, fighting for its life against what the folks can get at
home.
not gaming anymore, they can get that anywhere. So its
restaurants and shows. With more and more local casinos
having great eating choices and building facitities for shows,
what will Vegas have that brings people back.
This reminds me of the big movies vs TV debate back in the
50's. The movies invented VistaVision and PanaVision and 3-D
and put up drive-ins, and none of it worked. The movie
business is a shadow of what it was before TV. Before 1950,
something staggering like 9 out of 10 Americans went to the
movies at least once a week. Vegas is where the movies were
in 1950, fighting for its life against what the folks can get at
home.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 13th, 2011 at 1:51:11 PM
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Thoughts:
(1) The economy is still in recession which explains why destination travel to Vegas is still depressed.
(2) The major market for Reno is northern California gamblers and locals. Northern California casinos are now displacing business in Reno. And Reno hasn't upgraded its downtown casinos in eons.
(3) The major market for non-strip casinos in Vegas is locals, fleas, and advantage players. Their economy is highly stressed and housing has dropped substantially with the overall result of there not being alot of disposable income.
(4) The market for Laughlin and western Nevada casinos is Californians who have their local casinos now to play at.
(5) Airport traffic for McCarran has been on an upswing every month since January but is still 13.1% off the 2007 peak year. Strip revenue is up 9% since its low in October 2009 (October 2010 was the first month in YOY growth seen at McCarran in 31 months). This means that the tourists are coming back to the strip, slowly, but surely.
My feeling is that more Americans are gambling because of opportunity. Those people who desire to go to Vegas go to Vegas. For example, I've had casinos in my home town for the last 15 years, but I still make my trek to Vegas. So I see the Vegas central strip (from WynnCore down to Mandalay Bay) coming back to life. Heck, even Circus Circus is making money.
(1) The economy is still in recession which explains why destination travel to Vegas is still depressed.
(2) The major market for Reno is northern California gamblers and locals. Northern California casinos are now displacing business in Reno. And Reno hasn't upgraded its downtown casinos in eons.
(3) The major market for non-strip casinos in Vegas is locals, fleas, and advantage players. Their economy is highly stressed and housing has dropped substantially with the overall result of there not being alot of disposable income.
(4) The market for Laughlin and western Nevada casinos is Californians who have their local casinos now to play at.
(5) Airport traffic for McCarran has been on an upswing every month since January but is still 13.1% off the 2007 peak year. Strip revenue is up 9% since its low in October 2009 (October 2010 was the first month in YOY growth seen at McCarran in 31 months). This means that the tourists are coming back to the strip, slowly, but surely.
My feeling is that more Americans are gambling because of opportunity. Those people who desire to go to Vegas go to Vegas. For example, I've had casinos in my home town for the last 15 years, but I still make my trek to Vegas. So I see the Vegas central strip (from WynnCore down to Mandalay Bay) coming back to life. Heck, even Circus Circus is making money.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
December 13th, 2011 at 4:10:30 PM
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Yes. I'm sure the bean counters and economist types will have some differences of opinion and will endlessly split hairs about inflation/deflation and various percentages of revenue versus visitors or something, but we should indeed define our terms.Quote: pacomartinWell we should define 'come back'.
What is a come back? A dream held by a has-been movie star?
Actors used to dream of Broadway and Radio City Music Hall ... perhaps they still do but if so they do that dreaming while working at Dinner Theaters in the Sun Belt. And I doubt they are known as "Hams" these days... Hamlet? Ain't that a small town?
Performers may have dreamed of Vaudeville but its no longer known as Vaudeville its now Dark Cabaret in hordes of campus towns.
"Las Vegas" still exists in the hearts and minds of the public but the gambling is in Tribal Casinos and the Tribal Casinos are now building hotels and spas and day care centers and looking more and more like Vegas. The "I came, I saw, I went back home and gambled" may be a bit extreme but long flights and long lines for being fondled at the airport are part of the death knell for Vegas.
Reno values their casinos for their real estate value, not their gambling licenses value. Thunder Valley stole Reno's thunder!
Sure Las Vegas is still there and still gets visitors but there is little rational reason for visiting Las Vegas to gamble. The best food, the best "history", the best "ambiance" ...? So what you can hire a porn slapper to stand outside your local Tribal Casino if you that desperate for an authentic Vegas experience.
So Las Vegas will struggle onward with the casinos fighting a losing battle for quite some time.
December 13th, 2011 at 11:18:03 PM
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"Extra capacity"?
Ain't no extra capacity.
Oh there are plenty of empty rooms and zillions of steeply discounted rooms... but that is not capacity unless you have the housekeepers, waiters, dealers, valets, etc. to handle the guests who might fill those rooms. And it seems the casinos fired so many people.
But is it "excess capacity"? Heck, if you are trying to fill up this great big tank labeled "Vegas Hotel Rooms" ... look at the hose you are using? Do people even WANT to fly anymore? When the cost of tickets is high, the delays are high and the indignity level is ultra high how on earth are people going to get to Vegas even if they have free rooms and five dollar table limits?
Trip to Vegas? Trip to the Happy Wampum is more like it. A half naked black jack dealer in Vegas and a half naked black jack dealer thirty minutes down the road are fungible goods.
Ain't no extra capacity.
Oh there are plenty of empty rooms and zillions of steeply discounted rooms... but that is not capacity unless you have the housekeepers, waiters, dealers, valets, etc. to handle the guests who might fill those rooms. And it seems the casinos fired so many people.
But is it "excess capacity"? Heck, if you are trying to fill up this great big tank labeled "Vegas Hotel Rooms" ... look at the hose you are using? Do people even WANT to fly anymore? When the cost of tickets is high, the delays are high and the indignity level is ultra high how on earth are people going to get to Vegas even if they have free rooms and five dollar table limits?
Trip to Vegas? Trip to the Happy Wampum is more like it. A half naked black jack dealer in Vegas and a half naked black jack dealer thirty minutes down the road are fungible goods.
December 14th, 2011 at 8:35:17 AM
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I disagree.
Air traffic to Las Vegas has increased year over year every month for the last year, up 4.4% over last year but still off 13% from 2007.
On the strip, Slot "coin in" has increased year over year pretty much each month for the past eight months (but still 20-25% off of its 2007 highs). So as the recovery goes, people are coming back to the Vegas strip, slowly.
Slot trends are continuing along. Multi-denomination machines are earning about 44% of all slot revenue. Penny machines are replacing the nickel to dollar machines (mostly the nickel machines). The machines over a dollar are slowly phasing out (earning about 3% of total slot revenue).
Las Vegas is losing natural business as casinos open throughout the United States (especially in California), but with air traffic and revenue returning to Vegas despite other casinos opening, Vegas is (right now) making a slow and steady comeback. With inflation, it will come back to 13B. And as California makes a comeback, you will see the desire of people to make the 4 hour trek from the LA to Vegas increase instead of using the native casinos. I think it will take 4 years. I don't think the Echelon and Fontainebleau properties will ever come to fruition.
Air traffic to Las Vegas has increased year over year every month for the last year, up 4.4% over last year but still off 13% from 2007.
On the strip, Slot "coin in" has increased year over year pretty much each month for the past eight months (but still 20-25% off of its 2007 highs). So as the recovery goes, people are coming back to the Vegas strip, slowly.
Slot trends are continuing along. Multi-denomination machines are earning about 44% of all slot revenue. Penny machines are replacing the nickel to dollar machines (mostly the nickel machines). The machines over a dollar are slowly phasing out (earning about 3% of total slot revenue).
Las Vegas is losing natural business as casinos open throughout the United States (especially in California), but with air traffic and revenue returning to Vegas despite other casinos opening, Vegas is (right now) making a slow and steady comeback. With inflation, it will come back to 13B. And as California makes a comeback, you will see the desire of people to make the 4 hour trek from the LA to Vegas increase instead of using the native casinos. I think it will take 4 years. I don't think the Echelon and Fontainebleau properties will ever come to fruition.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
December 14th, 2011 at 11:54:31 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffDo people even WANT to fly anymore? When the cost of tickets is high, the delays are high and the indignity level is ultra high how on earth are people going to get to Vegas even if they have free rooms and five dollar table limits?
I don't. I just got back this week and have no desire to ever fly again. I'd love to go back to Vegas, but it is not worth the hassle to fly. I won't substitute any local casinos, either. They are too expensive, bad odds, smokey, and just not Vegas. I'll be in a cabin in the mountains reading a book for my next trip.
December 14th, 2011 at 2:39:39 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffand five dollar table limits?
$5 table min's are common in Indian casinos, during the week.
Soaring Eagle is huge and their limit is $5 all the time, even on
weekends.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 15th, 2011 at 6:35:19 AM
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Quote: pacomartinIt's worth noting that Nevada still controls a giant piece of the pie in the USA
Macau will probably beat the entire US commercial casino industry in 2011 (it should be fairly close)
I'm tempted to say "so what"? Competition is strange. One professor said "a university does not compete with other educational institutions, it competes with the bowling alley".
What about casinos? I guess at the "whale" level, Macau and Las Vegas compete, but thats about it.
Macau was a gambling enclave for a long time but its growth was due to easier travel and the quasi-capitalist Chinese system.
I would say that for US Casinos only the USA really matters.
I can't see anyone organizing junkets from the USA to Macau.
April 11th, 2012 at 10:58:56 PM
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>Nevada had back to back good months.
>They are inching their way back to the peak (4 years, 4 months ago) of $13 billion in gaming revenue.
Four years ago I daresay that Gaming Revenue was a realistic figure, now its a figure straight out of Wall Street's Hype Machine.
>The basic fact that 70% of the comeback on the strip has been in baccarat has not changed.
Perhaps baccarat has become marginally more popular amongst ordinary folk but lets face it, it is a game played by The Chinese and any game whose revenue is attributable to any one particular group is vulnerable. Popular restaurants display great revenue figures but can lose them over night if the "trendy set" moves elsewhere. If your revenue is based on hype it is in danger. Trends change, there are off-book expenses, such as movie stars having been secretly paid to eat there.
Is such revenue an "asset" that supports further debt? I don't know. Go to a casino and often its old people and orientals. They are the ones with the money. For now.
>They are inching their way back to the peak (4 years, 4 months ago) of $13 billion in gaming revenue.
Four years ago I daresay that Gaming Revenue was a realistic figure, now its a figure straight out of Wall Street's Hype Machine.
>The basic fact that 70% of the comeback on the strip has been in baccarat has not changed.
Perhaps baccarat has become marginally more popular amongst ordinary folk but lets face it, it is a game played by The Chinese and any game whose revenue is attributable to any one particular group is vulnerable. Popular restaurants display great revenue figures but can lose them over night if the "trendy set" moves elsewhere. If your revenue is based on hype it is in danger. Trends change, there are off-book expenses, such as movie stars having been secretly paid to eat there.
Is such revenue an "asset" that supports further debt? I don't know. Go to a casino and often its old people and orientals. They are the ones with the money. For now.
July 13th, 2012 at 3:30:52 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffPerhaps baccarat has become marginally more popular amongst ordinary folk but lets face it, it is a game played by The Chinese and any game whose revenue is attributable to any one particular group is vulnerable.
The Nevada gaming figures took a nasty hit for May, mostly due to a 50% drop in baccarat figures. The gaming figures defy the record numbers of people visiting Las Vegas.
Based on the average rate of recovery for the Strip in the last 31 months, it will take another 41 months to return to it's high of $6.95 billion achieved in October 2007. That would be the fall of 2015
Rest of Nevada (a general term that includes urban vegas outside of the strip, downtown, Mesquite, Laughlin, Reno, and the rest of northern NV) is showing no perceptible progress to it's market peak of $6.03 billion in October 2007. A projected recovery time is meaningless. Laughlin was the real standout this month, showing a 20% improvement over the same month last year. Nearly every other market went down.
| Comment | Month | State | Strip $billions | Strip baccarat $billions | Rest of NV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest reported | May-2012 | $10.76 | $6.07 | $1.26 | $4.68 |
| Low for off-strip | Sep-2011 | $10.55 | $5.94 | $1.17 | $4.61 |
| Low for the state | Jul-2010 | $10.28 | $5.62 | $1.10 | $4.66 |
| Low for the strip | Oct-2009 | $10.38 | $5.49 | $0.84 | $4.90 |
| Peak of market | Oct-2007 | $12.97 | $6.95 | $0.97 | $6.03 |
July 13th, 2012 at 6:39:41 AM
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I was in Vegas in last March, a buddy of mine went Memorial Day weekend. I was there during March Madness, so it was pretty packed. My buddy came back and said a pit boss told him the problem is that after The Hangover came out, every kid of 21 wanted to come out with his friends and have their own Hangover experience. They stay in the hotels, fill the rooms, and go to the clubs, but the one thing they don't really do is gamble. It would explain some of the drop in gaming revenue.
I disagree with the contention that more local casinos are hurting Vegas. I know plenty of people who refuse to go to local casinos because they feel the service isn't as good. Vegas casinos actually lobbied against legalized gambling elsewhere in the US because they thought it would hurt their business, but that worry proved unfounded. Vegas is still Vegas, and it is still seen as the big time. It is one thing to be able to win in Shreveport or Detroit or Council Bluffs, but how do you do in Vegas?
I gamble locally, and still make one or two trips to Vegas annually.
I disagree with the contention that more local casinos are hurting Vegas. I know plenty of people who refuse to go to local casinos because they feel the service isn't as good. Vegas casinos actually lobbied against legalized gambling elsewhere in the US because they thought it would hurt their business, but that worry proved unfounded. Vegas is still Vegas, and it is still seen as the big time. It is one thing to be able to win in Shreveport or Detroit or Council Bluffs, but how do you do in Vegas?
I gamble locally, and still make one or two trips to Vegas annually.
July 13th, 2012 at 6:56:10 AM
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Maybe I should have gambled that last $0.20 rather than taking the ticket home as a souvenir....
I'd feel guilty, but slot tickets make for great bookmarks.
I'd feel guilty, but slot tickets make for great bookmarks.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
August 6th, 2016 at 7:41:47 AM
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Quote: pacomartinOn October 2007 Nevada reported a peak running 12 month total of $13 billion.
In the 12 months leading up to October 2007 the revenue was
$12.97 billion statewide, with
$10.99 billion in Clark County and
$6.95 billion on the Vegas Strip.
We are within 4 months of the 9 year anniversary of the gaming peak, and the current numbers are
$11.12 billion statewide, with
$9.61 billion in Clark County and
$6.29 billion on the Vegas Strip.
Resorts World Las Vegas, owned by the Genting Group, is now planned to open in 2019.
http://rwlasvegas.com/
So do you think Nevada will return to $13 billion in three years, or do you think that Resorts World will simply replace some of the current revenue from the older resorts?
Since Macau has easily lost tens of billions in revenue over the last 2 years, is there a new gaming Mecca developing?
The 39-square-mile Golden Triangle Special Economic Zone, which was built on the Laotian border with Thailand and Myanmar is said to have old time lawless gambling accompanied with prostitution and other illicit trades which are banned in Macau.
