Baccarat - Picture Picture - a new side bet !?

A casino here in Cebu , Philippines offers an 8-1 Baccarat side bet if the Banker's third card is a Jack , Queen , or King ... Of course , the Banker often does NOT take a third card , which means an immediate loss of the side bet , ... or the third card may NOT be a 'picture' ... Six decks / no reshuffle ...What are the TRUE odds ? Seems like an easy card count opportunity, ... waiting for a time when the bottom of the shoe is 'picture rich' , and then making 'late entry' side bets !? I note that the locals are NOT making this side bet ... OR counting cards... Am I missing something here ?

MOST people aren't counting cards. Any game where cards are removed from future play (bacarrat, blackjack, blackjack variations)....these games are susceptible to card-counting. However, that doesn't mean that card-counting will be worth it. It depends on how often you can gain an edge and how much of an edge. If you can gain a 2% edge only 1% of the time....it's not going to be worth it. If you can get a 5% edge 10% of the time, it very well might be worth it.


Unfortunately, I don't know much about bacarrat and won't be able to help you much. If you know a bit of math, you should be able to figure this out on your own. At least, you can figure out the "true odds" on your own. Figure out the percentage chance that a banker will draw a 3rd card. Whenever the banker draws a third card, you'll have a 3/13 chance of winning. NOTE: I'm not taking into account the Effect of Removal. (Every time you take a card out, it changes the chance of getting any other card, because there will be a slight increase or decrease in those cards and other cards.....especially if a J/Q/K is necessary or is NOT necessary to be in a player/banker set.)


If you're paid 8:1 on the side bet, the dealer has an X chance of drawing a third card, and drawing a J, Q, or K will happen 3/13 of the time.....

X * 3 / 13 = 100% [ie: 100% return]
X = 1.00 * 13 / 3
X = 1.30 / 3
X = 43.33%


If the banker draws a third card 43.33% of the time, the game will be break even. If the banker draws a third card more often (greater than 43.33%), the game has a PLAYER edge. If the banker draws a third card less often (less than 43.33%), the game has a HOUSE edge [this is most likely the case].

A quick estimate reveals a 34% house advantage.

Quote: JB

A quick estimate reveals a 34% house advantage.

I'm getting 9.67% I think you are not counting hands where Player doesn't draw a 3rd card.

Hand	Pays	Combinations	Return
Banker 3rd card Face	8	88204532672448	0.802891097
Lose	-1	790664674223232	-0.899638613
Total		878869206895680	-0.096747516

Quote: miplet

I'm getting 9.67% I think you are not counting hands where Player doesn't draw a 3rd card.

No, I did. However, I see that I used an 8-deck shoe instead of a 6-deck shoe, although after recalculating, the 6-deck result is almost identical to the 8-deck result.

My estimate involved tallying the combinations where the banker's third card is a 0-pointer and then multiplying by 3/4 to eliminate the 10s.

The total for any 0-point third banker card is 85,855,253,882,112; multiplied by 3/4 that is 64,391,440,411,584.

So my revised result is:

Outcome	Combinations	Probability	Return
Banker face as 3rd card	64,391,440,411,584	0.073266	0.586130
All other	814,477,766,484,096	0.926734	-0.926734
Totals	878,869,206,895,680	1.000000	-0.340604

I submit that you might have counted 10s as face cards.

Quote: JB

No, I did. However, I see that I used an 8-deck shoe instead of a 6-deck shoe, although after recalculating, the 6-deck result is almost identical to the 8-deck result.

My estimate involved tallying the combinations where the banker's third card is a 0-pointer and then multiplying by 3/4 to eliminate the 10s.

The total for any 0-point third banker card is 85,855,253,882,112; multiplied by 3/4 that is 64,391,440,411,584.

So my revised result is:

Outcome	Combinations	Probability	Return
Banker face as 3rd card	64,391,440,411,584	0.073266	0.586130
All other	814,477,766,484,096	0.926734	-0.926734
Totals	878,869,206,895,680	1.000000	-0.340604

I submit that you might have counted 10s as face cards.

I'm getting 117,606,043,563,264 combinations where the banker's third card is a 0-pointer. I checked both in my Excel file and bac program. Maybe I'm having a serious brain fart. :+)

Quote: miplet

Maybe I'm having a serious brain fart. :+)

Nope, the mistake was on my end. In my code where I was adding the combinations for a third banker card when the player stood, it wasn't using the correct weight factor.

I now get the same 117,606,043,563,264 count as you, and a 9.6747516% house edge.

Quote: JB

Nope, the mistake was on my end. In my code where I was adding the combinations for a third banker card when the player stood, it wasn't using the correct weight factor.

I now get the same 117,606,043,563,264 count as you, and a 9.6747516% house edge.

9.6% is pretty stiff. Can the counting player overcome the edge?

Quote: Ayecarumba

9.6% is pretty stiff. Can the counting player overcome the edge?

Card Removed	Player EV	Difference
Normal	-0.096747516	0
1	-0.094626093	0.002121423
2	-0.095039316	0.0017082
3	-0.094904526	0.001842991
4	-0.094451669	0.002295847
5	-0.094098138	0.002649378
6	-0.093948603	0.002798913
7	-0.093672118	0.003075398
8	-0.090166174	0.006581342
9	-0.090594521	0.006152995
10	-0.094623129	0.002124387
Face	-0.107197808	-0.010450292

Editable spreadsheet. Green are ace to 9. Yellow are all faces and 10's and red are just the 10's.
http://miplet.net/bacpic.xlsb

Thanks for the computations on the House edge ! The following revisions to the original data are noted ... 8 decks , but approx. only 7 1/2 decks are played to an 80 hand maximum / the first 10 cards are shown and burned , but no cards are removed. The card count , of course , necessitates counting only the 'Pictures' and the total number of cards gone by - a slow and easy process , since a paper tally is allowed. Would you please evaluate the following strategy ? ... After establishing a favourable 'Picture' / Total card ratio , the individual ALWAYS simultaneously bets BOTH the Player and the 'Picture' ( which the Banker may or may not draw ) as a form of insurance betting. Admittedly this is a flawed strategy , since the Banker may win without a third card , or a third card that is not a 'Picture' ... however since the Player's chances are slightly less than 50 % , the occasional 'Picture' win might now at least level the odds , ... ALL THE WHILE WAITING for a 'Picture' rich lower shoe to really start hammering the 'Picture' Side Bet ! Crazy , crazy like a fox ... or just plain boring !? Your call ... ?

Quote: Superpal

Thanks for the computations on the House edge ! The following revisions to the original data are noted ... 8 decks , but approx. only 7 1/2 decks are played to an 80 hand maximum / the first 10 cards are shown and burned , but no cards are removed. The card count , of course , necessitates counting only the 'Pictures' and the total number of cards gone by - a slow and easy process , since a paper tally is allowed. Would you please evaluate the following strategy ? ... After establishing a favourable 'Picture' / Total card ratio , the individual ALWAYS simultaneously bets BOTH the Player and the 'Picture' ( which the Banker may or may not draw ) as a form of insurance betting. Admittedly this is a flawed strategy , since the Banker may win without a third card , or a third card that is not a 'Picture' ... however since the Player's chances are slightly less than 50 % , the occasional 'Picture' win might now at least level the odds , ... ALL THE WHILE WAITING for a 'Picture' rich lower shoe to really start hammering the 'Picture' Side Bet ! Crazy , crazy like a fox ... or just plain boring !? Your call ... ?

Hi Superpal,

I need this info to develop the counting system :-

1) 8 deck with penetration 7.5/8 ?
2) burn 10 cards from the beginning of the shoe ?
3) what is the minimum and maximum betting limits ?

Please check your private mail box.

Regards

James

8 Decks :-

Card Removed	Player Edge(%)
None	-9.628813
Ace	-9.470000
2	-9.500579
3	-9.490243
4	-9.455583
5	-9.430203
6	-9.419014
7	-9.397949
8	-9.135586
9	-9.167011
10	-9.469834
Face	-10.412857

Hi James ! Thanks for reply - my response delayed as the Casino was closed for the Holidays ! Additional information -Order of Operations - First , 8 decks / only 1 cut is made ! Second , the top card in the Shoe is revealed - this determines the VARIABLE number of 'burn' cards. If an Ace is revealed , only that Ace is burned ; if a 6 , then this and five more cards from the TOP of the Shoe are burned ; if a 10 or face card , then ten cards are revealed and burned. Third , six to thirteen additional cards are cut , ( not revealed ) and burned. Thus the number of 'burn' cards MAY VARY from seven to twenty-three , with approximately sixteen cards , on average , being burned , NOT ALL being revealed ! Fourth , the Indicator card , signifying the last deal , is placed above the burned cards. Fifth , two test deals are made from the top of the Shoe - player / dealer , and again , player / dealer. The number of cards in the test deals may vary from eight to twelve - these are revealed , placed ABOVE the Indicator card , and counted as two Deals having being made. Now the game is ready to begin on the third deal , to a MAXIMUM of 80 Deals , the number of deals usually varying from 75 to a maximum of 80 , if the Indicator card has not been uncovered. From a test of 1 complete shoe , I anticipated an average of 8 Picture - Picture wins , ( if my math was correct ) , and played 1 chip on EVERY hand . The count was very accurate , since play was excruciatingly slow ! Participants would take as much as 30 seconds to slowly uncurl the corner of their 3rd card - all very foolish , since the card could not be changed , there was no decision to be made , and there was no possible action , this being the end of the Deal ! By the ongoing ACCURATE count of total cards and 'Picture' cards , I anticipated a 'Picture card rich' lower Shoe , and was disappointed to find that many of the face cards must have been in the portion of the CARDS NOT PLAYED or the burn cards not revealed ! I've since been assured that no cards are removed from the 8 decks - Net loss in 3 1/2 hours $7.00 ! The count suggests that 359 cards were played from approximately 400 above the Indicator card when Deal #80 was reached - of course , one Shoe hardly represents a valid test ! Tables offer a P 500 minimum / P 60 000 maximum bet ( roughly equivalent to $2.50 and $1500.00 ) or P1000 / P100 000. Interestingly , dealers will cheerfully allow a P10 side bet , roughly equivalent to 25 cents , and various multiples of this , which would REALLY extend the possibilities of a 'progressive system' play on probabilities ! Potentially dangerous , since the whole Shoe could run without a single 'Picture - Picture win ! Nonetheless , the EXTREMELY remote possibility of this happening makes a 'system play' tempting , since at 8-1 odds , the participant does not have to 'double' after each loss , but rather , just add a few chips every once in a while to stay alive , recover ALL LOSSES , and always show a least a small PROFIT ! I've been tinkering , on paper , with a progressive system that would start with a $.25 chip , keep a participant active for 25 straight Deals , and after 25 Deals , at a total cost of $34.00 , turn a large or small proportional profit on just 1 win ANYWHERE along the line. After that win , the process would then be repeated from the start ! and with a running count on a 'rich' deck ?? Furthermore , the process could always be extended beyond 25 Deals at moderate cost Russian Roulette with an AK- 47 !?

Hi superpal,


a) What do you mean by : " First , 8 decks / only 1 cut is made !" Player allow to use an indicator card to cut the shoe after shuffling ?

b) Second, say the top card is a "5", then dealer will reveal and burn next 4 cards.

c) Third, say the dealer will burn(NOT REVEAL) another 6 cards. So total burn cards is now 11 (5 + 6) cards. All these 11 cards will put into a discard tray ? What's the purpose to put indicator card on top of those 11 burn card ?

d) I thought the indicator card already inside the shoe box ??

e) What is the maximum and minimum number of cards above the indicator card just before the first test deal ? 409 cards and 393 cards respectively ?

f) Casino closed for holiday ? How many baccarat tables are there with this side bet ? Many players at those baccarat tables ?

Please explain further.

James

Hi James ! Some clarification ... First , please understand ,that the expression , " ... only in the Philippines! " is often used to describe procedures in all walks of life that are seemingly inappropriate. This includes practices that are not only different from North America , but also different from ANY OTHER Asian country !? This is a constant concern to visitors here , while the locals just shrug and smile ! Politics / religion / / education / media / financial institutions / cultural practices ... the list goes on , with a wealth of remarkable details that provide surprises each and every day ! Grin and bear it !? In this instance , the Baccarat form is probably unique to local Casinos. Nonetheless , we are dealing with real outcomes and REAL MONEY ! Sorry for the confusion - consider the following explanation ... The 8 decks arrive at the Baccarat table ALREADY SHUFFLED from the on site Casino office One of the waiting participants now cuts the deck , once only ! Let's imagine the cut is roughly in the centre of the 8 decks , so that the bottom 4 decks now become the top 4 decks. The dealer now withdraws the top card . The numerical value of this card determines how many cards will be burned. Thus if an 8 is the top card , the 8 and eight more cards will be burned. The Pit Boss now extracts somewhere between six and thirteen cards , and these are also burned. The burned cards are now placed in the Shoe ( It seems that the cards burned by the dealer are SOMETIMES revealed , but the ones burned by the Pit Boss are NEVER revealed ! Obviously each game will burn between eight and twenty-three cards , SOMETIMES SOME OF WHICH are revealed !? ) Two REVEALED trial deals are made , using between 6 and 8 cards , and these are placed in the Shoe. The Indicator Card is placed above all of these , and the remainder of the 8 decks is now placed in the Shoe above the Indicator Card , two sets of burn cards and trial deal cards. Play will now begin to a MAXIMUM of 78 more deals or to the Indicator card , whichever comes first. A complete game is usually 73 to 77 playable deals , whereupon the Table is closed and all play is discontinued ... Please note a couple of minor revisions to my original text , but it seems that the number of cards to be put in play is somewhere between 400 ( 416 -2 -6 -4 -4 , minimum burns and trials ) and 380 ( 416 - 11 -13 - 6 - 6 , maximum burns and trials ). Note the revision from my previous text ! Since the Table is usually closed by maximum Deals rather than the arrival of the Indicator Card , it would seem that there are USUALLY somewhat less than 380 cards actually played - my previous and only trial gave the total number as less than 380 , a number that will always vary somewhat ... The tables seat 8 players - in the morning and early afternoon only 2 tables will be active with 1 or 2 standee players , however in the evening as many as 5 tables will be open , with a mob of 6 to 20 standee players and spectators , most of whom will bet Player or Banker , a few making various side bets , and ALL of whom are playing trends shown on a small display board .... The whole mob are permitted to play below the stated minimums on every Deal ... Considering Frequency , Range , and Standard Deviation , please comment on my proposed 'progressive system' , which would offer a winning percentage at 8-1 on Picture - Picture within 25 Deals ............... " Those who play with fire .......... !? "

Hi Superpal, I am now fully understand the dealing procedure. Thanks for your explanation.

1) Can player ONLY bet on PICTURE sidebet(Without betting on BANKER/PLAYER/TIE) ?

2) Can I assumed the dealer reveal the burn cards(at stage 1) 50% of the time and Pit Boss NEVER reveal the burn cards(at stage 2) ?

3) What is the casino name ? Please send to my private mail box, I have something for you.

James

hi super,

what if PLAYER stand(2 cards) and BANKER draw a 3rd card "picture" ? Will they pay 8 to 1 ?

James