Alan Mendelson alansbestbuys (Split Thread)

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In this game, triple double bonus, you would hold a kicker with three aces because that is the equivalent of having a four-card royal flush draw as quad aces with a kicker pays the same as a royal flush.

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If you want to see why I am giving Rob such a hard time about how he played this particular hand look at the interviews I did with him about his "special plays" for Triple Double Bonus when dealt three aces with a kicker, or hand like the one in the photo -- three small cards with a kicker. Those are videos #15 and #16 here: http://alanbestbuys.com/id195.html

Rob never mentioned before about violating his "special play rules" when he was deep in the hole, losing about $10K.

Like I said on my forum, too many inconsistencies and strategy adjustments for non-Rob Singers to follow. You really have to be Rob to follow Rob's play.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Had he, or whoever, hit the draw button just a nanosecond earlier or later, that 3s would probably never shown up.

Correct. And he needed perfect timing to hit his quad on the draw, too.

There is just a lot of luck involved in video poker. Playing video poker is not a 'test" of correct strategy -- it's hoping the RNG will cooperate with your strategy.

This story is Singer all over. But also highlights the problem with his special plays. Some times they increase the chance of a hit at the cost of expected value. Sometimes they decrease the chance of a win, hoping for a bigger result. There's no consistency in his methods, and he cannot (or will not) discuss the mathematics behind them that he claims he has processed and done.

Like Colonel Kurtz... he was derided for his unsound methods... but I can see no method at all.

His methods are meaningless with his belief of the 'fourth card flip over' and the machines not being random (see the German test bed he 'used'... but cannot provide details of). Or his increase on a loss systems, which when I played with in a simulation were -terrible- at getting the results he claimed.

There's such a mishmash of ideas, and you can follow a merry go around when you try to follow them. One other poster has supported his claimed system, but was found to be faking his wins. Singer is never going to be believed in general. The fact he still tries to be believed speaks volumes.

Alan I'm not sure if you know the answers, but let me ask a few question if you don't mind.

Other then play his system what dose he try to do with it? Dose he sell it? Dose he get suckers to put up money to play it for them and take a cut? Dose he use it as a tool for books or consulting?

Who and what challenges have been made? Has he ever accepted any? Will he take any? Will he show anyone his system?

These questions would best be answered by Rob, but I will take a stab at answering them based on what I know.

Quote: AxelWolf

Other then play his system what dose he try to do with it?

He did write and publish two books (short, not packed with facts) and he did have a website about his strategies and system, but that website was taken down by him when he "retired." One of the reasons why I approached him to do the videos was because there was no single place (book or website) where you could see his "special plays" explained in one place

Quote: AxelWolf

Dose he sell it?

He sold his books, and also gave them away. He doesn't sell his system, and freely will give lessons -- he says -- to anyone who wants to learn it.

Quote: AxelWolf

Dose he get suckers to put up money to play it for them and take a cut?

There have been allegations about this, but I don't think it ever happened. I spoke to Rob about this and he denies it and I believe him. And if it really did happen why hasn't someone come forward and said "yeah, it was me." No one has.

Quote: AxelWolf

Dose he use it as a tool for books or consulting?

I mentioned the two books, he also wrote a video poker column for Gaming Today and he says he was asked to author another article in GT.

Quote: AxelWolf

Who and what challenges have been made?

Many challenges have been made but none has come to be played out because there has always been a dispute over a bet, or side bet, or rules of the challenge. About two years ago (I think it was that long ago) there was a big challenge fight between some posters there who said Rob couldnt win or do what he said ... but Rob demanded a certain amount of money be put up for the challenge and it didn't happen.

Quote: AxelWolf

Has he ever accepted any?

I think Rob would accept all sorts of challenges or requests but you will find they are always on his terms, and I can't speak as to what his terms are.

Quote: AxelWolf

Will he take any?

As I said above, you'll have to ask him what his terms are.

Quote: AxelWolf

Will he show anyone his system?

Rob has offered to show his system in detail to several people who refused the invitation. I know this for a fact, including his offer to show Frank Kneeland his system in detail. Frank would not sit with Rob and learn it. Frank had his own questions he wanted to ask and really wasn't interested in learning what Rob's system was about. I spoke many times with Frank and even had lunch with him to discuss Rob's system and Frank really wasn't interested in Rob's system -- he was more concerned about how Rob's system might help prevent gambling addiction. Unfortunately Frank could have been a good independent appraiser of what Rob's system is and what it can and cannot do.

Rob also says he approached the Wizard about showing him his system and I am not familiar with the details so I will defer to the Wiz or others to comment.

As I wrote on my website and said in my video conversations with Rob -- his system is not totally off the wall or crazy. There are a lot of good ideas there. I do not accept his claims about rigged machines but I do think some of his "special plays" do have a certain value in certain situations -- however I mostly play conventional, standard video poker. I think Rob's ideas about win goals is excellent, but I think he needs to change his ideas about loss limits. It bothers me that someone would takes $30,000 or more to a casino with the idea of just winning $1,000.

I have often said that Rob is his own worst enemy. If he treated people with respect, his ideas would get more respect. And some of his ideas do deserve respect. But some of his claims either need to be toned down or dropped because he is yet to present the supporting evidence. There are hundreds of posts on my Forum about the "missing proof" over some of his claims.

Alan, Has anyone just offered to watch him play his system, not totally learn it(because it seems like it's a gut instinct system possibly a machine Marty type with a win or loss goal) just confirm it seems to be working. I would be willing to watch this system with an as open mind as I could. I have known crazier people actually find gaffed machines.

AxelWolf I suggest you send him a message. I can't speak for him.

I have never seen him play, though he did watch me play for a few minutes at Caesars before we shot his interviews there. When I was playing he gave me what I considered to be normal, and solid advice on a couple of hands where a decision had to be made about how to play it. But as we know, most video poker hands are routine, simple plays.

So when Rob says that he uses "special plays" only 5% of the time, that makes sense. But in reality a "special play" might be presented to you in maybe 1% of the hands you play.

In the last several years I made only TWO of Rob's special plays. I was playing 8/5 Aces and Faces (like Bonus poker) and dealt a full house with three aces. Rob says hold the aces and go for quads. Conventional strategy says hold the full house. Well, I was losing badly, so I needed quad aces to bail me out and I drew the fourth ace for a $2,000 win. The second time is when I was playing Triple Double Bonus and I was dealt three aces with a kicker. I only held the aces -- and I did not draw the fourth ace, so it wouldnt have mattered if I held or dropped the kicker.

Many times Ive been dealt a full house with three aces in Bonus or Aces and Faces and I always hold the full house, which is what conventional strategy says to do. The time I didn't was only because I was deep in the red.

Rob Singer is Jerry Logan. Nuff said

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

He obviously seems to think that these big hands are "due."

I was playing the usual 9/6 JoB the other day and went over 2300 hands before hitting any 4oak. Pretty long stretch.

That's what happens...... when you keep missing pairs.

Quote: thecesspit

This story is Singer all over. But also highlights the problem with his special plays. Some times they increase the chance of a hit at the cost of expected value. Sometimes they decrease the chance of a win, hoping for a bigger result. There's no consistency in his methods, and he cannot (or will not) discuss the mathematics behind them that he claims he has processed and done.

Out of multi-thousands of posts in the gambling forums, Rob has never once addressed the mathematics of gambling....because he doesn't know anything about the mathematics of gambling.

Quote: AlanMendelson

In the last several years I made only TWO of Rob's special plays. I was playing 8/5 Aces and Faces (like Bonus poker) and dealt a full house with three aces. Rob says hold the aces and go for quads. Conventional strategy says hold the full house. Well, I was losing badly, so I needed quad aces to bail me out and I drew the fourth ace for a $2,000 win.

Alan, by the same token, when you are dealt Aces Full in 10/7 DB the optimal play is to hold just the Three Aces. It's a painful break to make but I did it everytime. And I've made the Four Aces a few times. But others have complained to me of never making Four Aces on that draw.

Quote: AxelWolf

Who and what challenges have been made? Has he ever accepted any? Will he take any? Will he show anyone his system?

Axel, I observed many times how Rob's proposition bets with others go down. That is, they never go down. When Rob started the "fifth card flip" controversy I got an email from a friend. He wanted to know if I could arrange a bet/challenge between his party and Rob over this "fifth card flip" stuff. I asked him who his party was. He wouldn't tell me other than "one of them is a casino owner in North Las Vegas." I let Rob know that some heavy hitters were looking for some action with him. But I advised my friend what was going to happen. I had seen it to many times before. I told him:

"Rob will start throwing down terms and conditions. If you accept those terms and conditions he will add more terms and conditions. If you accept the new terms and conditions he will then add more terms and conditions. He will keep doing this until you tire of trying to make the bet. Then he will claim victory."

And that's exactly what Rob tried to do with these guys.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Out of multi-thousands of posts in the gambling forums, Rob has never once addressed the mathematics of gambling....because he doesn't know anything about the mathematics of gambling.

He alludes to it, all the time. But never showed the goods. I was invited to meet him once, and while all my interactions with him were cordial, I try to avoid interacting with people who are toxic to others. It'd have been interesting in some level to see if there was any steak to his sizzle, but only interesting like reading the spoilers to a bad movie on IMDB.

Logan also invited me to go for a beer in Vancouver once, but it was not worth the trip to me. I'm still not 100% convinced Logan=Singer (for a couple of small reasons) I was tempted to find out, but well, the Logan persona was a liar and a blowhard, so why go more than two blocks?

He did meet with the Wizard for an experiment.... https://wizardofodds.com/blog/chat-with-rob-singer/

There have been a ton of spam bots during the early morning hours on ABB. Now the site has been down for pretty much the day. Hopefully they are working to combat the spam issue and didn't get hit with a DDOS or anything.

Quote: Perdition

There have been a ton of spam bots during the early morning hours on ABB. Now the site has been down for pretty much the day. Hopefully they are working to combat the spam issue and didn't get hit with a DDOS or anything.

Ugh.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Alan, by the same token, when you are dealt Aces Full in 10/7 DB the optimal play is to hold just the Three Aces. It's a painful break to make but I did it everytime. And I've made the Four Aces a few times. But others have complained to me of never making Four Aces on that draw.

That's an example I wouldn't chastise others over for not breaking either since it's 10/7 DB. It's only a $2.87 mistake at the five dollar level. Note I am using $5 credits to compare with Alan's story, so don't ask me where the $5 10/7 DB machine is...lol And to be honest, I don't think I have hit 4 Aces when breaking a boat. But my sample size is possibly less than 23 at the casinos... :(

Breaking Aces full on 8/5 Aces & Faces on dollars is a $35.34 mistake in comparison. I understand why Alan did it at the time, but I would have just stared at it for a bit and bitterly accept 40 credits while being well in the hole.

Quote: tringlomane

Ugh. That's an example I wouldn't chastise others over for not breaking either since it's 10/7 DB. It's only a $2.87 mistake at the five dollar level. Note I am using $5 credits to compare with Alan's story, so don't ask me where the $5 10/7 DB machine is...lol And to be honest, I don't think I have hit 4 Aces when breaking a boat. But my sample size is possibly less than 23 at the casinos... :(.

It's definitely a high variance draw. But the reason so many have been unsuccessful at it is they just haven't seen the draw that much. It doesn't come around that often. There are only 288 combinations out of 2,598,960 that make Aces Full on the deal. 4 combinations make three Aces and 72 combinations make a pair other than Aces, so 288 combinations.

2598960/288 = 9024.1666. That's how often you will see this hand. If you decide to never break Aces Full then it doesn't cost you much in the long run.

9024.1666 X $25 = a total wager of 225,604.16

$2.87/$225,604.16 = 0.0000127

So not making this break lowers your variance and doesn't slice off much EV in the long run.

Quote: mickeycrimm

It's definitely a high variance draw. But the reason so many have been unsuccessful at it is they just haven't seen the draw that much. It doesn't come around that often. There are only 288 combinations out of 2,598,960 that make Aces Full on the deal. 4 combinations make three Aces and 72 combinations make a pair other than Aces, so 288 combinations.

2598960/288 = 9024.1666. That's how often you will see this hand. If you decide to never break Aces Full then it doesn't cost you much in the long run.

9024.1666 X $25 = a total wager of 225,604.16

$2.87/$225,604.16 = 0.0000127

So not making this break lowers your variance and doesn't slice off much EV in the long run.

It's funny that you bumped this part now. I actually have converted breaking two pair into 4 Aces twice this year. First two times I can remember. :D. No successful Aces full break yet though. Maybe someday.

It would seem that Alan sold his gambling-related website, it is under new ownership and format changes have been made.

It's now called Vegas Casino Talk.

Quote: MrV

It would seem that Alan sold his gambling-related website, it is under new ownership and format changes have been made.

It's now called Vegas Casino Talk.

Guess someone came up with $2500.

It's not much different. Basically, Todd (DanDruff) owns it now instead of Alan.

Quote: Boz

Guess someone came up with $2500.

Depending what someones plans were I think that was a good deal.

Dan druff was the mod and one of the main posters anyway- he use to own never win poker.com with Bryan Mican and I think donk down poker also

The drama over there lately has been real entertaining.

Funny I was going to say the same things- but honestly the site just only sounds like constant fighting

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Funny I was going to say the same things- but honestly the site just only sounds like constant fighting

Exactly why Alan wanted to dump it on someone else.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Exactly why Alan wanted to dump it on someone else.

Perhaps he doesn't have time to make it profitable.

So the 18 yo's claim might have been a desperate attempt to draw some traffic in and artificially boost the value of the site before the sell then?

Quote: rawtuff

So the 18 yo's claim might have been a desperate attempt to draw some traffic in and artificially boost the value of the site before the sell then?

I think he made that claim a while ago. I'm not sure what the value of a forum like that's worth but to the right person I have to think it's well worth $2500.

There is also discussion about Gambler's Glen going dormant in Sept. as the named owner is MIA.

Who was the owner?

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Who was the owner?

Brian Fischer is still listed as the owner.

see

So why is he missing in action