correct odds
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:15:08 AM
permalink
Hello Wizard
Just a couple of queries if you would like to comment
I. What is the correct strategy for the following
A. Suppose I have AQ (or whatever) pre flop
1. This gives me 6 outs if I dont hit on the flop
B. Which is the correct strategy taking into account the following
1. According to the rule of 2/4 I have approximately 12% ( about 7/1) chance of pairing up on the turn and 24% (about 3/1) of pairing up on the river if I stay that long
2. On the other hand there is the argument that the probability of hitting A or Q by the river is 48.74% (1/1) about even money using the following explanation
a) Of the 50 cards left 44 are not A or Q and the number of ways to draw any 5 cards out of 44 is comb(44,5) = 1,06,088
b) The number of ways to draw 5 cards out of 50 is comb(50,5) = 2,118,760
c) The probability of not pairing an A or Q is 1086088/2118760 = 51.26% meaning that the probability of pairing is 1-51.26% - about 1 in 2 (even money)
C. Now the question is
1. What strategy should I rely on if I decide to go to the river
a) the rule of 2/4
or
b) the calculations which say that it is an even money bet to stay to the river
(i) and
2. why is one more correct than the other
II. Flushes and straights
A. It seems to me that the way of working out the odds of hitting a flush or straight are not practical
1. According to theory if you have 2 of a suit in hand and hit 2 more of the suit the outs are 9
2. This is assuming that the remainder of the suits (13-4) are all available to use
3. My argument is that this is not so and that the number of outs depends on the number of players
4. With 10 players there are 20 cards out so on average there ought to be 5 of each suit so the number of outs is only 6
5. With 8 players there are 16 cards out so on average there ought to be 4 of each suit so the number of outs is only 7
6. It is only when you get to 4 players that you will get 9 outs
7. Less than 4 players will improve the number of outs
8. As a result the chances of hitting by the river will vary according to the number of players
B. The argument is similar for straights
C. What is your view on this argument ?
D. Using this argument what will the odds of hitting by the river be?
Just a couple of queries if you would like to comment
I. What is the correct strategy for the following
A. Suppose I have AQ (or whatever) pre flop
1. This gives me 6 outs if I dont hit on the flop
B. Which is the correct strategy taking into account the following
1. According to the rule of 2/4 I have approximately 12% ( about 7/1) chance of pairing up on the turn and 24% (about 3/1) of pairing up on the river if I stay that long
2. On the other hand there is the argument that the probability of hitting A or Q by the river is 48.74% (1/1) about even money using the following explanation
a) Of the 50 cards left 44 are not A or Q and the number of ways to draw any 5 cards out of 44 is comb(44,5) = 1,06,088
b) The number of ways to draw 5 cards out of 50 is comb(50,5) = 2,118,760
c) The probability of not pairing an A or Q is 1086088/2118760 = 51.26% meaning that the probability of pairing is 1-51.26% - about 1 in 2 (even money)
C. Now the question is
1. What strategy should I rely on if I decide to go to the river
a) the rule of 2/4
or
b) the calculations which say that it is an even money bet to stay to the river
(i) and
2. why is one more correct than the other
II. Flushes and straights
A. It seems to me that the way of working out the odds of hitting a flush or straight are not practical
1. According to theory if you have 2 of a suit in hand and hit 2 more of the suit the outs are 9
2. This is assuming that the remainder of the suits (13-4) are all available to use
3. My argument is that this is not so and that the number of outs depends on the number of players
4. With 10 players there are 20 cards out so on average there ought to be 5 of each suit so the number of outs is only 6
5. With 8 players there are 16 cards out so on average there ought to be 4 of each suit so the number of outs is only 7
6. It is only when you get to 4 players that you will get 9 outs
7. Less than 4 players will improve the number of outs
8. As a result the chances of hitting by the river will vary according to the number of players
B. The argument is similar for straights
C. What is your view on this argument ?
D. Using this argument what will the odds of hitting by the river be?
February 2nd, 2012 at 4:57:56 AM
permalink
Why are flushes and straights different? Why aren't you considering the number of players when looking for the Ace or Queen? Don't they also have a chance of holding your outs?
My point is, unless other players expose or reveal their hand, the odds don't change based upon the possibility that they hold one of your outs.
It is this reason why, at an all-in situation with more cards to be dealt, other players should keep their mouth closed about what they had.
My point is, unless other players expose or reveal their hand, the odds don't change based upon the possibility that they hold one of your outs.
It is this reason why, at an all-in situation with more cards to be dealt, other players should keep their mouth closed about what they had.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 6th, 2012 at 9:23:41 AM
permalink
AQ suited preflop... figure 20 or 21 outs if suited: 12 or 13 unsuited. Thus the strength of a suited pocket is revealed.
Natch, knowing any opponent(s) helps, and the flop is the great equalizer. JMHO
Natch, knowing any opponent(s) helps, and the flop is the great equalizer. JMHO
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
