NHL Goal Scorer Betting Strategy

I wanted to check on this NHL goal scorer betting strategy.
Few Sportsbook are offering Team to Score First bet in regulation and Say Team A +105, Team B at -125 and None at +10000

Strategy here is place say 10 dollars on Team A to score first at +105 in Sportsbook A. In Sportsbook B, place bets on 7 players to score Firstgoal in Team B and may be keep 1 dollar on all players Individually. In this way , if Team A scores , i will be get a minimum profit and say if a player from team B with +3000 odds scores the first goal , then i will be in a huge profit.

I checked one of the games today and odds for the Players in Team B to score the first goal are 1000, 1600, 1600, 2000,2200,2200,3000. Even if the +1000 odds player hit, i will get my money back with a small profit.

I do see here the risk of player from Team B who we have not bet to score the first goal we lose all the bets. But I just wanted to check if this sounds something doable or am i being stupid here.

Quote: rajbhah89

I wanted to check on this NHL goal scorer betting strategy.
Few Sportsbook are offering Team to Score First bet in regulation and Say Team A +105, Team B at -125 and None at +10000

Strategy here is place say 10 dollars on Team A to score first at +105 in Sportsbook A. In Sportsbook B, place bets on 7 players to score Firstgoal in Team B and may be keep 1 dollar on all players Individually. In this way , if Team A scores , i will be get a minimum profit and say if a player from team B with +3000 odds scores the first goal , then i will be in a huge profit.

I checked one of the games today and odds for the Players in Team B to score the first goal are 1000, 1600, 1600, 2000,2200,2200,3000. Even if the +1000 odds player hit, i will get my money back with a small profit.

I do see here the risk of player from Team B who we have not bet to score the first goal we lose all the bets. But I just wanted to check if this sounds something doable or am i being stupid here.
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I think you need to check more than one game. Your numbers do not seem typical. Check all the games each day and see if that is consistent. If it is you may have found a fool making the lines at that book.

Yes, I have been tracking this for a month now. Not sure if the month is a long sample size.

But Team A to score first goal is around -110 to +110
Team B to Score first is around-125 to -145
None or No Goal is +8500 to +10000

First goal scorer in Team B typical starts around 900 to 1000
And the 7th player on Team B to score is around +2000 to +3000

Quote: rajbhah89

I wanted to check on this NHL goal scorer betting strategy.
Few Sportsbook are offering Team to Score First bet in regulation and Say Team A +105, Team B at -125 and None at +10000

Strategy here is place say 10 dollars on Team A to score first at +105 in Sportsbook A. In Sportsbook B, place bets on 7 players to score Firstgoal in Team B and may be keep 1 dollar on all players Individually. In this way , if Team A scores , i will be get a minimum profit and say if a player from team B with +3000 odds scores the first goal , then i will be in a huge profit.

I checked one of the games today and odds for the Players in Team B to score the first goal are 1000, 1600, 1600, 2000,2200,2200,3000. Even if the +1000 odds player hit, i will get my money back with a small profit.

I do see here the risk of player from Team B who we have not bet to score the first goal we lose all the bets. But I just wanted to check if this sounds something doable or am i being stupid here.
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There are around 18 skaters on each team that can score the first goal. If you take the top 7 possibilities out of 18 you probably hit it 3/4 of the time ir so. So 1/8 of the time you lose both bets. And you NEVER win both bets.

I don’t think it is ‘stupid’. I just think it will turn out to be a losing strategy. I think each and every bet you are proposing is a losing bet, as far as EV goes. And adding up a bunch of -EV bets NEVER is +EV.

Thank you. Also i ran a Arbitrage simulation and see at 15% roi if it hits. There is also a downside on this , if a bet loses, then i have to win 5 or 6 games in a row to recoup the loses.

I was hoping, if the number of losses are less, may be 1/7th or 1/8th then i might be in profit.

Quote: rajbhah89

Thank you. Also i ran a Arbitrage simulation and see at 15% roi if it hits. There is also a downside on this , if a bet loses, then i have to win 5 or 6 games in a row to recoup the loses.

I was hoping, if the number of losses are less, may be 1/7th or 1/8th then i might be in profit.
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Try and answer this for me. In your system, which single bet EVER has an advantage over the Sportsbook? I think the answer will turn out to be NONE. Think about that for a while.