SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 8108
January 10th, 2020 at 4:05:44 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Just to be clear, the player has a 45.62% chance of being ahead after 100 hands

a 12.714% chance of being ahead after 10,000 hands

and a 1% chance of being ahead after 18,341.6 hands.

So the probability drops 32 points for the 9900 hands between 100 & 10,000 ?

And it drops 11 points for the 8342 hands between 10,000 & 18,342 ?

Can you explain to a layman why the probabilities are skewed that way?

I'll let a better math guy answer for you, but the odds are even LESS LIKELY than presented. DogHand has not included tipping, which is always a 'loss'. MDawg has mentioned a few times that he does tip.
Hullabaloo
Joined: Nov 30, 2014
• Posts: 435
Thanks for this post from:
January 10th, 2020 at 4:22:53 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Hullabaloo you owe me a hour of my life back after I read that thread lol.

You should know by now that once you start down the rabbit hole you'll never escape.
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
• Posts: 1043
January 10th, 2020 at 4:27:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'll let a better math guy answer for you, but the odds are even LESS LIKELY than presented. DogHand has not included tipping, which is always a 'loss'. MDawg has mentioned a few times that he does tip.

Slow your IV, Doc...so far we're only talking about flat-betting on Banker here.

I haven't asked Dog to consider Dawg's play yet.
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
• Posts: 447
January 10th, 2020 at 4:40:37 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Just to be clear, the player has a 45.62% chance of being ahead after 100 hands

a 12.714% chance of being ahead after 10,000 hands

and a 1% chance of being ahead after 18,341.6 hands.

So the probability drops 32 points for the 9900 hands between 100 & 10,000 ?

And it drops 11 points for the 8342 hands between 10,000 & 18,342 ?

Can you explain to a layman why the probabilities are skewed that way?

coachbelly,

This phenomenon is a natural result of the fact that the Complimentary Cumulative probability asymptotically approaches 0 as the z-score approaches infinity. For more details, see for example https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_normal_table

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
• Posts: 1043
January 10th, 2020 at 4:50:18 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Hope this helps!

I understand that it would take an infinite number of hands played to mitigate that last 1% probability of being ahead.

Is there a mathematical model to examine a playing strategy other than flat-betting on Banker?
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19845
January 10th, 2020 at 5:47:41 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

He started a thread on VCT to confirm his recollection, transparently got a first-hand account from the son, and then repeatedly admitted that he was mistaken.

However long that took, it was apparently too long for you, because you are still harping on about it 5+ years later.

But that's a reflection on you...not him.

You don't know what opportunity he had to confirm his recollection, you don't know whether or not he was in contact with his son while you stewed over it.

You're making that up, just like you made this up...

Reading the thread, it's apparent that he didn't have any conversation with his son on the matter until the thread.

Your accusation that he was covering up the truth is a malicious fabrication...it's nothing more than a fantasy that you created and then presented as truth.

Unless you're him, how would you know if he had a conversation with his Son? Even if he did we would have to count on his recollection as being accurate, so far it seems to be just the opposite of that. It seems more likely than not that he would have had this conversation with his son and it went down similar to what I described. If not, why didn't he just simply ask his son and Report the facts before he got outed.? Coincidentally it was around the time that corresponding to his son's outrage. And again, don't forget his son was a member of that very forum and participating from time to time in between all this. If he didn't in fact ask his son it's only because he himself knew it was a very very unlikely to have been true.

We're talking about a guy that claims to have witnessed 18 yo's in a row another strange stuff. And now, if in fact this new alias is him(and many believe it is for good reason) he's suddenly reporting to have witnessed 10 to 12 super times pay multipliers in a row(15 to 1 shot= many trillions to one).

So why don't we both just stop speculating and go with the facts. He made an unlikely claim and was question about it multiple times over a long period of time, he doubled and tripled down the claim even going so far as to proposing some lopsided bet while swearing up and down it was true. The 5 single line Royals claim he made was clear and precise. The reason he made the claim is clear. There was lots of back and forth regarding his claim and he stood strong defending his claimed as the truth. His claim wasn't true, NOT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING TRUE. IT WAS ONE, NOT 5 legitimate Royals on single line(excuse me if it happened to be two and I miss something).
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
• Posts: 1043
January 10th, 2020 at 5:56:15 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Unless you're him, how would you know if he had a conversation with his Son?

Good point Captain Morgan, how did you know?

Quote: AxelWolf

He obviously had the conversation with his son where his son set him straight.

AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 19845
January 10th, 2020 at 6:24:52 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Good point Captain Morgan, how did you know?

So now you've resorted to some kind of attempt at a personal insult regarding the fact that I have a drank too much Captain Morgan in the past?

Interesting, I can only draw one conclusion from that.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
• Posts: 1043
January 10th, 2020 at 6:32:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

So now you've resorted to some kind of attempt at a personal insult regarding the fact that I have a drank too much Captain Morgan in the past?

Nice deflection...but Captain notwithstanding, how did you know?

Quote: AxelWolf

Unless you're him, how would you know if he had a conversation with his Son?

And, what's your conclusion?...the one that you claimed that you could draw...

Quote: AxelWolf

I can only draw one conclusion from that.

beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14232
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January 10th, 2020 at 6:45:58 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Good point Captain Morgan, how did you know?

Trolling. 3 days for the insult.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.