Card Counting Baccart Dragon Bonus

Hi,

I noticed that the wizard has a section his site about the Baccarat Dragon Bonus side bet.

I was wondering if it could be beaten by card counting and if so what sort of edge the player would have.
A manual count system might look like this
A,2,3,4,5 +1
7,8,9,10 -1
(Theres probably a way better count system if it was analysed properly)

I wonder if a larger edge could be gained by using a computer to input all the cards and calculate the exact odds
to the player in any spot.

It would also be interesting to know how often the players edge comes up.

Thanks,

Mark.

I was interested in this to when a casino near me had this bet, but they no longer have it so I stopped my analysis. I might try again, but I'd have to start over.

Well, one way to go about this is:

Run a baccarat simulation, and every time the dragon bonus hand comes up, have it take note of which cards were involved.

Then at the end, see which cards were used (in BOTH the player and banker hand) for that hand the most, and those are the "favorable" cards for the occurrence to happen.

Honestly though I think this would be a waste of time. First off, there's a MASSIVE 7% house edge to overcome, and this is a long long long shot bet (40-1 payout), so even when the opportunity arises you can't bet big on it since the variance is ridiculous.

I have the feeling this is something you'd be backcounting for hours and hours before finally placing a few bets.. losing them (since it's a long shot), and then having to stand around counting for hours and hours again.

But yeah.. if you want to test this, you need to run a computer simulation to figure out the favorable cards (though this can PROBABLY be done with math if you're good), then figure out the probability of a situation arising where you can place the bet with an edge.

Quote: f2d

Well, one way to go about this is:
Honestly though I think this would be a waste of time. First off, there's a MASSIVE 7% house edge to overcome, and this is a long long long shot bet (40-1 payout), so even when the opportunity arises you can't bet big on it since the variance is ridiculous.

You must be thinking of the Dragon Bet. (Labled incorrectly as Dragon Bonus.) I assumed we are talking about Dragon Bonus, which has a smaller house edge (for the Player, not Banker).

Quote: miplet

You must be thinking of the Dragon Bet. (Labled incorrectly as Dragon Bonus.) I assumed we are talking about Dragon Bonus, which has a smaller house edge (for the Player, not Banker).

Ah, that's not as bad, only a 2.xx% edge to overcome.

Well, in that case the OP can do the computer simulation method I described to figure out which cards cause a payout of the bonus bet more often.

Another problem w/ this (as is with all sidebets) is you most likely have to place a negative value "main" bet as well in order to play