Chances of winning a split hand in Blackjack?

Ok all you statisticians! Assuming you follow standard basic playing strategy and Las Vegas table rules, what are the chances or odds of winning split blackjack hands?

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Quote: JOHNNYD

Ok all you statisticians! Assuming you follow standard basic playing strategy and Las Vegas table rules, what are the chances or odds of winning split blackjack hands?

That's a little better, Johnny. Welcome.

Here is the link that will help you look for yourself;

Blackjack Tables

Scroll down near the bottom to the table that says "Expected return on splitting". It gives you a hand-by-hand breakdown against all dealer upcards.

Quote: beachbumbabs

That's a little better, Johnny. Welcome.

Here is the link that will help you look for yourself;

Blackjack Tables

Scroll down near the bottom to the table that says "Expected return on splitting". It gives you a hand-by-hand breakdown against all dealer upcards.

We're going to have to make you the official WOV welcome wagon. The way you welcomed JOHNNYD and gently guided him from blog to forum makes me think that times really are a changin'. Good job!

Thanks! Now to show you how much of a blackjack virgin I am: What does the number value shown in PLAYER'S EXPECTED RETURN column mean?

Over an infinite number of hands, that's how much you are expected to win (+) or lose (-) for every $1 bet.

If you look at the lead in paragraph, the Wiz explains it, but it's a bit cryptic.

Each table takes all possible hands that would qualify for that choice (split obviously has less choices than others like stand or hit) and figures out your chance of winning by telling you how much you would expect to lose, on average, over a huge amount of hands. Some are -, meaning you will lose these more than 1/2 the time, and calculating how much, others are + (don't have a sign so positive by default) meaning you should win more than you lose of them over time. He gives you the raw chances on each combined hand possible in those first 4 charts. Then, a little further down, he's made it easy to compare by showing you the best choice overall (least loser, best winner, whatever applies) for optimal strategy from each hand in the top charts with those colored charts. He's made them small enough you can print one out, cut it out and stick it in your wallet. Nice, huh?

Ok, Thanks so much - always learning! But obviously I looking for a simple answer for maybe not to simple a question!
I was looking of the chance or odds of winning a blackjack hand that is split. For example I understand the you'll win approximately 60% of the hands you should double down on. If I can't find a simple answer, I'll toke the chances or odds for winning each of the individual hands you should split!

Quote: JOHNNYD

Ok, Thanks so much - always learning! But obviously I looking for a simple answer for maybe not to simple a question!
I was looking of the chance or odds of winning a blackjack hand that is split. For example I understand the you'll win approximately 60% of the hands you should double down on. If I can't find a simple answer, I'll toke the chances or odds for winning each of the individual hands you should split!

Your inquiry is a non-sequitur and it has no answer. In an attempt to offer some guidance on the matter, there are different types of splits. Reckless splits, defensive splits, offensive splits, and aggressive splits. Reckless splits are bad, such as splitting 10s. These types of splits always cause you to earn less value for your money, but like your question, whether you are expected to win or lose a particular reckless split is anybody's guess. Defensive splits are like splitting 8s against 10s. You are expected to lose, but lose less than not splitting. Offensive splits are like splitting 2s against 7s because by splitting, you turn an expected losing hand into an expected push (you generally expect to win one and lose the other). Aggressive splits are like splitting 9s against a 6. You take an expected winning hand and split it into two expected winning hands. As you can see, you split sometimes even when you expect to lose. It is not about percentage hands won, it is about profit maximization and loss minimization.

Edit: Computer simulations can give you an answer. And I should have indicated that talken together, I think you will win 44-49% of your hands, and you normally win 43% of indiividual hands. I find this meaningless info by itself, due to my explanation above.

Quote: JOHNNYD

Ok, Thanks so much - always learning! But obviously I looking for a simple answer for maybe not to simple a question!
I was looking of the chance or odds of winning a blackjack hand that is split.
For example I understand the you'll win approximately 60% of the hands you should double down on. If I can't find a simple answer, I'll toke the chances or odds for winning each of the individual hands you should split!

check out
http://www.bjsim.com/sample/BJSIM111.5N2NMD3.htm
I thought double down hands win about 55-56% of the time (only 10-12% when I DDown)

there are more sims there
total
win: 0.489647688
lose: 0.438841824
push: 0.071510488

these sims shows the breakdown of all split hands from BS
(and almost exact to some Qfit sims I have run in the past)

you would have to use the Wizard's Excel BlackJack workbook to add up the winning values to get an exact figure.
I do not remember where the link to that book is

Sally

As has been described splits are because (1) you're turning one bad hand (16) into two slightly less worse hands (8 8) (2) you're creating two good hands. So not all splits are favourites to win.

If you're into spreadsheets, you can calculate (using infinite deck) the chances of anything happening. The logic uses a form or recursion and starts with 21 : P(21)=1, 17 then 16 has P(21)=1/13, P(20)=1/13 etc. Having worked out the chances of the dealer's various totals given their starting card, the use similar logic to determine whether to hit or stand, double, split etc. Eventually this gives you (for instance) the value of each 3 vs 2 (which compared with starting on 6, means you split). I think the only decision that doesn't agree with 6-deck for UK rules is doubling A4 vs 4. So it's also a good tool to work out strategy.

Quote: JOHNNYD

Ok, Thanks so much - always learning!

Hey, love the member name selection. And welcome.

- JohnnyQ