Quote:7crapscompare the values to just one 18/37 bet of 3 units

we can even look at a graph of 80 bets

(probs less than .000001% are not plotted)

notice how smooth the curve looks at it's peak

for the 3 even money bets compared to the one even money bet.

from that the actual values of intervals and using the central limit theorem will be quite close

meaning the error will be small.

To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

If you want to minimize variance, ie. get a lot wagering action with low risk, you should bet on either red+even or black+odd. This will result in a push 21 out of 37 times.

yesQuote:Jufo81To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph

but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

I added the cumulative graph that shows that better

still

ev/sd

which one is closest to 0 has the greater chance of being even or ahead over X trials played

assumes enough money to make every bet

Quote:7crapsyes

I added the cumulative graph that shows that better

still

ev/sd

which one is closest to 0 has the greater chance of being even or ahead over X trials played

assumes enough money to make every bet

I think the equation is ev/variance and not ev/sd? (variance = sd^2)

That standard deviation is much higher than I though it would be

Quote:kubikulann(Place this in Math or Gamble or Roulette, not in Forum info)

Answer: yes, you lower variance.

Standard deviation = $51.89

All $90 on one bet would have yielded a SD of $89.87, that is sqrt(3)=1.73 times more.

Would that mean that betting 3 even chances (eg black, even, high) would be 1.73 times less likely to fall 21wins behind the other 3 even chances and 0 (eg red, odd, low),

then say black to fall 7 wins behind red and 0?

Quote:Jufo81To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

If you want to minimize variance, ie. get a lot wagering action with low risk, you should bet on either red+even or black+odd. This will result in a push 21 out of 37 times.

Is this strategy a better way of minimizing variance than BEH?

I have been interested in ways to reduce variance also for various reasons