Jufo81
Jufo81
Joined: May 23, 2010
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 344
January 23rd, 2014 at 1:05:52 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

compare the values to just one 18/37 bet of 3 units
we can even look at a graph of 80 bets
(probs less than .000001% are not plotted)
notice how smooth the curve looks at it's peak
for the 3 even money bets compared to the one even money bet.

from that the actual values of intervals and using the central limit theorem will be quite close
meaning the error will be small.



To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

If you want to minimize variance, ie. get a lot wagering action with low risk, you should bet on either red+even or black+odd. This will result in a push 21 out of 37 times.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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January 23rd, 2014 at 1:50:55 PM permalink
Quote: Jufo81

To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph
but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

yes
I added the cumulative graph that shows that better

still
ev/sd
which one is closest to 0 has the greater chance of being even or ahead over X trials played
assumes enough money to make every bet
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Jufo81
Jufo81
Joined: May 23, 2010
  • Threads: 6
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January 24th, 2014 at 12:12:06 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

yes
I added the cumulative graph that shows that better

still
ev/sd
which one is closest to 0 has the greater chance of being even or ahead over X trials played
assumes enough money to make every bet



I think the equation is ev/variance and not ev/sd? (variance = sd^2)
Walkinshaw30t
Walkinshaw30t
Joined: Apr 11, 2013
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  • Posts: 91
January 25th, 2014 at 2:04:39 PM permalink
Standard deviation per 80 rounds: 1.84*SQRT(80) = 16.46 units (relative to 3-unit bets)


That standard deviation is much higher than I though it would be
Time will tell
Walkinshaw30t
Walkinshaw30t
Joined: Apr 11, 2013
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February 23rd, 2014 at 2:12:59 AM permalink
Quote: kubikulann

(Place this in Math or Gamble or Roulette, not in Forum info)

Answer: yes, you lower variance.

Standard deviation = $51.89

All $90 on one bet would have yielded a SD of $89.87, that is sqrt(3)=1.73 times more.




Would that mean that betting 3 even chances (eg black, even, high) would be 1.73 times less likely to fall 21wins behind the other 3 even chances and 0 (eg red, odd, low),
then say black to fall 7 wins behind red and 0?
Time will tell
Stats
Stats
Joined: Apr 19, 2014
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  • Posts: 24
April 22nd, 2014 at 11:39:39 AM permalink
Quote: Jufo81

To clarify: Is the red line for the 3-way bet (black,even,passe) and green line for single even money bets (both 80 rounds)? It cannot be seen very clearly from the graph but you should have much higher chance of ending up ahead with the single bets because you get more variance to escape the house edge.

If you want to minimize variance, ie. get a lot wagering action with low risk, you should bet on either red+even or black+odd. This will result in a push 21 out of 37 times.



Is this strategy a better way of minimizing variance than BEH?
I have been interested in ways to reduce variance also for various reasons

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