Theoretical loss

Cant find the calculation on this.. 900 avg bet, (500 on don't with 300 odds and 400 on do with no odds) for 1 hrs, 65 rolls in that hour at craps.. Need to no theoretical loss. Yes, the casinos count both ways as your avg. They don't count the odds though. Sorry for my naiveté...Thanks

Quote: mds

Cant find the calculation on this.. 900 avg bet, (500 on don't with 300 odds and 400 on do with no odds) for 1 hrs, 65 rolls in that hour at craps.. Need to no theoretical loss. Yes, the casinos count both ways as your avg. They don't count the odds though. Sorry for my naiveté...Thanks

I have used the following H/A in the calculations:

Don't pass with 1x odds = 0.68%
Don't pass no odds = 1.36%
Pass line no odds = 1.41%

1) 500 ave x 0.68% x 1 (hour) x 65 (decisions per hour) = $221
2) 500 x 1.36% x 1 (hour) x 65 (decisions per hour) = $442
3) 400 x 1.41% x 1 (hour) x 65 (decisions per hour) = $366.6

Casinos may have a set amount of hands per hour that they use as calculation AND they may also have a set % for the HA, no matter how you bet, usually an average of all of them combined or some derivation.

Hope I understood your questions correctly.

Quote: mds

Cant find the calculation on this..
900 avg bet, (500 on don't with 300 odds and 400 on do with no odds) for 1 hrs, 65 rolls in that hour at craps..
Need to no theoretical loss.
Yes, the casinos count both ways as your avg.
They don't count the odds though.
Sorry for my naiveté...Thanks

Ah. do not be sorry to ask questions.
start here for example
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

check out my math for your example
I used house edge per roll
65 rolls
don't = 65*$500*-0.004 = -$109.20
do = 65*$400*-0.0042 = -$130
total ev = -$239.2

Sally

So My theoretical loss would be? Wouldn't it be more like 900avg x 1.36% x 1 hour x 65????

See, the big difference between the calculations would be the H/A on a per roll or per bet made basis.

IMO, the last being the correct one, per bet made, which both the Wiz and Bob Hannum agree that the H/A is 1.36%

The casino will take your average bet, in this case you say it is $900 and multiply it by A specific H/A that they have derived from using all the H/A's and perhaps getting an average, multiplied by your decisions per hour which in your case you state was 65 but could be again a set amount irrespective of how many rolls actually took place.

The casinos figures COULD (I stress "could") look like this

900ave * 1.15% * average craps decisions per hour (50) * hours played (1) = $517.9

There is one other thing I have forgotten to mention. If you bet both the line and don't pass at the same time (some houses will allow you to, most won't), they will not give you your full 900 average but rather rate you on 50% of your average or close to what they think your average of the two sides were for that particular roll. Kinda like you trying to bet both player and banker on baccarat and only be on the hook for 5%.

mds are you planning on questioning some comps or is it just for interest sakes?

Future interest only. Thank you. So, now that we have a theoretical loss established, what % of that number is comp dollars? Give or take.
In Vegas all the large casinos like Wynn, Aria, Bellagio and MGM all count the avg as 900. Cosmo wont but they do count odd in your avg. Caesars now counts everything! Harrah's too. (All money on the table)

Quote: mds

Future interest only. Thank you. So, now that we have a theoretical loss established, what % of that number is comp dollars? Give or take.
In Vegas all the large casinos like Wynn, Aria, Bellagio and MGM all count the avg as 900. Cosmo wont but they do count odd in your avg. Caesars now counts everything! Harrah's too. (All money on the table)

Must be real tough to figure out exactly what your action is during a game what with presses, taking money down and the like. What CET will probably do is pump up your free rooms but give you a very small % as comp dollars.

Most casinos I am aware of hover between 7 and 15% obviously with 15% being quite liberal. They also build other offers in there to mitigate the % a little.

I think a good guide in my opinion would be around 8 to 10%.

Obviously cash back will be quite a lot lower, around 4 or 5% depending on your level of action.

Makes you wonder how Don Johnson got back 20%.

Quote: mds

So My theoretical loss would be? Wouldn't it be more like 900avg x 1.36% x 1 hour x 65????

Why x 65?
you said did you not
" 65 rolls in that hour " not 65 resolved bets

so 65/3.38 = # of resolved pass line bets (19.2)
$900*1.40%*1*20 = $252 expected loss (ev)

this is closer to a simulation result of $255

I think the per roll result is low because it considers the session over at 65 rolls where in reality
65 rolls may not decide all the bets still unresolved (Plus the Wizard did round his values)

Sally

Don spent 50k alone in the club. These club managers have as much pull as a host these days. As far as the above, what a rip off! Im giving them 500k in action and they make me pull teeth for 7% of 500 bucks an hour. Really upsetting. Fricken corporate BS. And you are right in your other post. These dealers are soooo upset at the world. Almost not worth going anymore. Almost :) They are taking the fun out of it.

Quote: mustangsally

Why x 65?
you said did you not
" 65 rolls in that hour " not 65 resolved bets

so 65/3.38 = # of resolved pass line bets (19.2)
$900*1.40%*1*20 = $252 expected loss (ev)

this is closer to a simulation result of $255

I think the per roll result is low because it considers the session over at 65 rolls where in reality
65 rolls may not decide all the bets still unresolved (Plus the Wizard did round his values)

Sally

Yeah Sally you are right, I'm thinking in terms of blackjack or Baccarat and not craps, my apologies. However, this is all just conjecture as, like I said, in most casinos and their calculation of your theoretical, they will simply use a set amount of rolls per hour that is predifined in their player tracking software. Fair/unfair it may be but that is what they do.
Remember also the issue a lot of the time is with the floor people actually plugging the figures into the software. That is why I had such a strong reaction to CET tracking all your action and giving you an average bet. For the most part (and I know I'm generalizing here) floors struggle to give you a correct average on Blackjack.......

mds, the problems with the staff seems to be getting worse. I hope that the execs find a way to get some middle ground with the dealers and try make life a little better from both sides, otherwise customer service will severely suffer!