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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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April 6th, 2021 at 10:16:59 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Does anyone else see the irony in the fact that this is a challenge made by a guy with the handle "expected value", to claims in a thread located in the LOSING BETTING SYSTEMS section of this forum, right there with the other LOSING progression betting systems. Great stuff, ExpectedValue!



I've thought the exact same thing! I was questioning the motives of EV, as he clearly offered a +EV opportunity to MDawg. But once EV forwarded the $500 to the Wizard, to me that signifies he is willing to spend his own money to find out if MDawg is legit. It is telling, however, that EV entered the forum specifically in the MDawg thread. But anyway, MDawg has put the ball in EV's court, and it is up to EV to affirmatively say he accepts MDawg's terms, and forward the $2k to the Wiz to escrow. If the bet is confirmed here on the forum, I will start a new thread to discuss the betting odds on the result.
coachbelly
coachbelly
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April 6th, 2021 at 10:22:13 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

A better understanding of the nuances involved?



Are you of the opinion that he didn't fully understand the nuances involved?

I didn't get that impression at all.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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KeeneoneFTB
April 6th, 2021 at 10:22:45 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

If the bet is confirmed here on the forum, I will start a new thread to discuss the betting odds on the result.

No. Please don't. This thread can mutate to that purpose without giving MDawg another dedicated thread.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
kewlj
kewlj
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April 6th, 2021 at 10:41:22 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


It would almost have been the perfect irony for ExpectedValue to be a sock of MDawg's. How Machiavellian would that have been?

I don't for one second suspect or accuse ExpectedValue of being a sock.



EV is not a sock. I always say it is not that hard to figure out "who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". I don't know who EV is, but he has caught my eye since I returned to this forum last summer. For one thing, I like his handle. :) He IS an advantage player and either lives in or spends a lot of time in Vegas. I believe he has stated this, so not giving anything away. The only thing that makes getting a read on him a little difficult is he doesn't post all that much. Mostly (this being the exception), stays out of the fray and drama. Posts when he has something to say.

I can assure you he is well aware this meet up or whatever you want to call it that he proposed, is not +EV for him. I think he is just tired of reading all the BS and decided to put up a little money to get the ball rolling and maybe get to the bottom of this nonsense.
Mission146
Mission146 
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April 6th, 2021 at 1:47:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Explain why a minimum bet should matter to anyone? Makes no sense especially if you are trend betting or what ever you want to call it...

If a guy wants to bet $5 until he sees a trend or whatever and then he makes huge bets why isn't that appropriate? Obviously, that's not good for the person making the offer as it can easily give someone an advantage.



Because you could have an early run of +1k (or whatever) on three hands betting 1k/hand, and if the minimum is only $100, you could just grind out $100 hands hoping not to ridiculously deviate from the expected win rate. That was pretty much my entire strategy for producing a winning shoe when I did my little experiment...except I was even more conservative to start.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 6th, 2021 at 2:53:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Because you could have an early run of +1k (or whatever) on three hands betting 1k/hand, and if the minimum is only $100, you could just grind out $100 hands hoping not to ridiculously deviate from the expected win rate. That was pretty much my entire strategy for producing a winning shoe when I did my little experiment...except I was even more conservative to start.

Im not talking about winning the challenge, we already know it's a +EV situation and ways to properly bet in that situation. The real question is, will we see an average bet of 1k. He has been asked to play like "he normally does" and not change that based on winning the challenge.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 6th, 2021 at 4:50:05 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Im not talking about winning the challenge, we already know it's a +EV situation and ways to properly bet in that situation. The real question is, will we see an average bet of 1k. He has been asked to play like "he normally does" and not change that based on winning the challenge.



He has posted many trip reports with far lower average bet sizes.

It seems like MDawg, EV, and the Wiz have agreed to terms. You and me and the rest of the peanut gallery can now await the results.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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kewlj
April 6th, 2021 at 6:56:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

He has posted many trip reports with far lower average bet sizes.

It seems like MDawg, EV, and the Wiz have agreed to terms. You and me and the rest of the peanut gallery can now await the results.

IIRC he said he bets an average of 1k per hand. Do you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 6th, 2021 at 7:06:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Do you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?



Not just RFB for weeks at a time, but luxury suites.....with ketchup bottles. Lol.
unJon
unJon
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April 6th, 2021 at 7:32:08 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

IIRC he said he bets an average of 1k per hand. Do you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?



This now multi week trip started with average bets of $500 and escalated.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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