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coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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April 5th, 2021 at 3:49:53 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Expectedvalue, made an honest attempt at a fair proposal
and the usual suspects are trying to sabotage it with their usual games.



Woah...nobody is arguing against it or trying to sabotage it.

On the contrary, the proposal has other takers,
nobody wants this opportunity to go away.

The proposal requires an $8K minimum starting bankroll,
no maximum bankroll.

There is no minimum or maximum bet required,
other than the table minimum and maximum.

The player must play at least 57 hands of baccarat,
and finish ahead after his play.

The player shall receive a $2K bonus
should he finish ahead after his play.

This must be a significant +EV opportunity for the player.

Any math guys want to take a look at this play?
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 5th, 2021 at 3:54:39 PM permalink
Why is coach belly injecting himself in the middle of this? (as he always does) Am I missing where it has anything to do with him?

Expectedvalue is putting HIS money up in a proposal to Wizard and the other party. Wizard has accepted. Why is coach belly negotiating or trying to set terms?
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:11:46 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

Yes I believe that he will if offered a $2K bonus for a positive result after 57 hands.

I suspect that this is a +EV play, of the magnitude of the recent VP play the Wizard wrote about.



This is far from a +EV situation IMHO.

If MDawg is bullshitola then he will be exposed unless dumb luck works his way as he has to be ahead at the end 57 hands.

If he is lucky most people including myself will point out he was just dumb lucky and as oncedear points out it just proves that that single time he gambled for high stakes. Not necessarily every trip like he claims.

Finally if MDawg has actually perfected a means of beating Baccarat (regardless of anyone opinions on it) then he is exposing a very valuable method for a measly $2000.

I just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:14:15 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

This is far from a +EV situation IMHO.

If MDawg is bullshitola then he will be exposed unless dumb luck works his way as he has to be ahead at the end 57 hands.

If he is lucky most people including myself will point out he was just dumb lucky and as oncedear points out it just proves that that single time he gambled for high stakes. Not necessarily every trip like he claims.

Finally if MDawg has actually perfected a means of beating Baccarat (regardless of anyone opinions on it) then he is exposing a very valuable method for a measly $2000.

I just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV

The 57 hands criteria is sadly NOT in the original offer that Wizard and apparently MDawg have accepted.
I fear EV might have made a small error in his offer, over on that other thread.
But, I'm sure they can work it out.
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:18:13 PM permalink
Quote: Expectedvalue

Please do not chance my words coach belly. I said at a minimum that we agree on.



What if you can't agree on a minimum?

Why not avoid or eliminate that possibility and
propose a minimum bet so the guy can fully evaluate the challenge?

As it stands now, you posted different conditions on another thread,
and that's the only challenge he's aware of.

He has you blocked, he hasn't seen this thread,
or what you proposed here.

The Wizard hasn't replied here either,
but both he and MDawg accepted the conditions
which you proposed on the Adventures thread.

So it looks like you are EXPECTED to either follow through
with whatever the Wizard agreed to, or withdraw.
coachbelly
coachbelly
Joined: Oct 21, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
April 5th, 2021 at 4:26:02 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I just don't see how the outcome in any way will leave MDawg happy or at a +EV



He can just flat-bet banker for the table min X
and have a decent chance of being ahead Y after 57 hands.

If you add the bonus, then he'd win Y + $2000 if ahead Y after 57 hands.

Isn't that similar to playing a machine progressive?
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:29:38 PM permalink
Quote: Expectedvalue

As Michael buffer says.

Letís get readddyyyyyyyyyyy to rumble.



Buffer holds the copyright on that phrase.

"How Legendary Sports Phrase ĎLetís Get Ready to Rumbleí Made $400 Million" - Article
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
April 5th, 2021 at 4:34:22 PM permalink
OK boys and girls. If ExpectedValue will let me do the challenge I would love to. Here is what I would do...... Let's assume the minimum bet is $100. I think that is reasonable for 'high limit' rooms at at least the mid level strip casinos. I will bet banker 56 consecutive times. let's say I am running 'average, and win 26, lose 25, and tie 5. I would be down $30. I would bet $100 on hand 57, and either be up $65 plus the $2k, or down $130. If down $130, I would bet $140 on banker, and either be up $3, plus the $2k, or down $270. If down $270, I'd bet $285 on banker, and either end up up $2, plus the $2k, or down $555. Need I go on? Unless the required minimum bet is HUGE, this is a GIGANTIC + EV opportunity.

Oh, I also forgot, if I was just a teeny bit lucky, and won 27, lost 24, and tied 5, I wouldn't need to do ANYTHING to win the extra $2k.

I'm not great at the exact math, but I'd submit that the average expected value to me for this 'challenge' would be around $1850 - $1950.

As I've said about all challenges involving MDawg..... IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:40:55 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!



So a guy shows up at a 'runners forum' (I assume there is such a thing) claiming he can run a 3 minute mile. After a lot of pushback from the membership he offers to meet with the runners forum owner and show him statements from people who have seen him run the 3 minute mile. Wouldn't the big question be: why will he not just run the 3 minute mile in the presence of the Runner forum owner?
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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April 5th, 2021 at 4:56:52 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

The 57 hands criteria is sadly NOT in the original offer that Wizard and apparently MDawg have accepted.
I fear EV might have made a small error in his offer, over on that other thread.
But, I'm sure they can work it out.
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/3H9He1vZEYLH2ixrEZqk44dFvCvJNj6V5D



Doesn't MDawg claim a hit and run where he leaves if up?

What is to stop MDawg from doing one single banker wager for $1000, win, say, he won, he is leaving as per usual and please hand me $2000?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

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