Mdawg forum challenge
It WOULD be a winning stategy, of approx 2K. It just wouldn't be the one he usually uses. Nothing to say it needs to be. Wizard could write up about what a fine laugh they had over lunch, courtesy of EV.Quote: kewljYes, but that is part of the whole thing about Wizard witnessing play. While it would be within the challenge rules, Wizard would immediately recognize that and report on it. And the report should include that is not a winning strategy. Because that is really what everyone is looking to solve.
EV messed up. So badly in fact that it had Coachbelly agreeing with me and me thanking one of his posts. Heck, I think Axel and Darkoz even agreed with CoachBelly. A challenge worthy of a write up just for that.
$:o)
Quote: ExpectedvalueThis entire thing is getting twisted. I do not care about the positive ev for mdawg, provided he wins. You people are trying to twist things. The spirit of the offer was play as you normally would. Let the wizard watch, and if you win you get 2k
EV it’s your challenge and your call, but I actually think you got what you need already. If the session ends after 1/3 of a shoe where MDAWG bet not so much and wins just a little, claiming that he’s just not feeling the run that day.
Well then you know he’s not Houdini but Uri Geller. And that’s all you wanted to buy for your $2,500 I think.
Quote: ExpectedvalueThis entire thing is getting twisted.
There is nothing twisted about the exchange below.
Your offer, that you wrote, was accepted as written...
Quote: ExpectedvalueSince he likes free money I would be willing to pay wizard 500 for his time and mdawg 2k for allowing wizard to watch for one full session. Provided the minimum bets and table and markers are as he said. Now is time to put up or shut up. I will be happy to send the wizard or any other mod the Btc upfront upon agreement of this
Quote: WizardI agree.
Quote: MDawgI accept this exact proposal.
Quote: ExpectedvalueI posted the rules. A full session. Markers at the level as discussed and same average bet.
When he accepted he wrote that he would play as he always does.
What else is it that you want?
Quote: MDawgI am playing a session most every day so this will just be another one. If I am up six grand after twenty hands I may stop. If it takes me four shoes to get back to even, so be it. I'm not going to play any differently from however I always play, and it will be at the tables I always play at which are $100. minimum tables.
Quote: MDawgDoesn't say anything about number of hands. My sessions vary in length, sometimes less than a shoe sometimes many shoes. I won't go in there and putz around to get 2000. I will play the way I always play.
This is not a unilateral acceptance but an open post . If we are close to agreeing then we will list the exact agreement in public forum prior to coming to a conclusion and meeting of the minds
Quote: ExpectedvalueOk so the since you posted the above let’s agree on this.
MDawg has you blocked and cannot see your posts.
I don't speak for him, I can only quote what he posted.
The same goes for you, I can only quote what you posted.
And that's what I did, that's what Wizard did, what MDawg did,
and what Once Dear did.
We all posted the same thing, and that was what you wrote,
which was a challenge that was offered and accepted.
Whatever was written afterwards cannot undo
what has already been done.
You are on the hook for what you have done.
If anybody that can let you off the hook wants to let you
off the hook, then nobody will be able to stop them.
If you want to float another set of rules, go right ahead.
Send them to the Wizard, who can send them to MDawg.
I wouldn't expect MDawg to cancel the original conditions
in favor of a new set of conditions.
But he might accept a second challenge.
With either one or both, you will get to pay Wizard to watch
what you want him to see.
Quote: coachbellyMDawg has you blocked and cannot see your posts.
I don't speak for him, I can only quote what he posted.
The same goes for you, I can only quote what you posted.
And that's what I did, that's what Wizard did, what MDawg did,
and what Once Dear did.
We all posted the same thing, and that was what you wrote,
which was a challenge that was offered and accepted.
Whatever was written afterwards cannot undo
what has already been done.
You are on the hook for what you have done.
If anybody that can let you off the hook wants to let you
off the hook, then nobody will be able to stop them.
If you want to float another set of rules, go right ahead.
Send them to the Wizard, who can send them to MDawg.
I wouldn't expect MDawg to cancel the original conditions
in favor of a new set of conditions.
But he might accept a second challenge.
With either one or both, you will get to pay Wizard to watch
what you want him to see.
Well that throws a monkey wrench in it for me.
I mean how convenient MDawg read only the post for the challenge he prefers but didn't unblock the other one!
Quote: darkozI mean how convenient MDawg read only the post for the challenge he prefers but didn't unblock the other one!
He only saw the first one because Wizard quoted it when he accepted it.
I'm not so sure he wouldn't accept the revised challenge if he read it,
given how SOOPOO explained what a GIGANTIC +EV opportunity it would be.
Can a member see threads started by someone they blocked?
I've never blocked anybody, so I don't know what happens when you do.
Quote: coachbellyHe only saw the first one because Wizard quoted it when he accepted it.
I'm not so sure he wouldn't accept the revised challenge if he read it,
given how SOOPOO explained what a GIGANTIC +EV opportunity it would be.
Can a member see threads started by someone they blocked?
I've never blocked anybody, so I don't know what happens when you do.
Quote: coachbellyHe only saw the first one because Wizard quoted it when he accepted it.
I'm not so sure he wouldn't accept the revised challenge if he read it,
given how SOOPOO explained what a GIGANTIC +EV opportunity it would be.
Can a member see threads started by someone they blocked?
I've never blocked anybody, so I don't know what happens when you do.
You can see the threads.
Technically you can see posts have been made. The post is there as an entry and the words "a post has been blocked due to your settings".
You then have a choice to unblock just that post.
So everything posted is accessible even when blocked.
It's more of a convenience or reminder that you don't like what this guy has to say.
Which is why MDawg saying he only sees posts when logged out sounds suspect.
BTW, Coach, you are blocked to me. Yet I am still interacting with you ala the method above
Quote: darkozYou then have a choice to unblock just that post.
Why block someone, then open their posts one at a time,
considering that you know who the post is from?
You need reminding that you don't like what someone has to say,
then you unblock and read their posts anyway?
Does the reminder help you decide if you like the post or not?
Also anyone who thinks people block others are dreaming. I bet 1 person in 10 who says he blocks someone actually does. Often you will catch them replying to someone they blocked.
Quote: vegasCoachbelly has one job here and that is to make sure this challenge does not happen. You knew he would cone into this thread and twist everything. He is a hired gun.
Also anyone who thinks people block others are dreaming. I bet 1 person in 10 who says he blocks someone actually does. Often you will catch them replying to someone they blocked.
You have it all wrong, I want the challenge to happen.
I actually want 2 challenges to happen, the original offered and accepted challenge,
and the revised challenge which has been offered but not accepted.
I have seen screen shots of what the member sees when someone is blocked,
so it appears that members are indeed blocking other members.
I've read that anything can be faked, but I don't know why anyone would
fake blocking someone by posting a fake screenshot.
Quote: coachbellyWhy block someone, then open their posts one at a time,
considering that you know who the post is from?
You need reminding that you don't like what someone has to say,
then you unblock and read their posts anyway?
Does the reminder help you decide if you like the post or not?
You do realize I didn't design the WOV website?
Why don't you ask Wizard why it was set up that way.
My opinion:. As there are ongoing conversations in the threads there will be gaps if you skip blocked members comments so this gives you an opportunity to decipher the complete conversation.
BTW, that's at the very core of the disagreement here with MDawg claiming he didn't see the challenge that EV is saying was the actual rules in total.
Quote: darkozYou do realize I didn't design the WOV website?
Why don't you ask Wizard why it was set up that way.
I don't care why it was set up that way.
I asked why you would block someone,
then read their posts anyway?
Every blocked post leaves gaps in the conversations,
so you open the blocked posts to follow the conversation?
What's the point of going through all that?
Why bother blocking the posts in the first place,
why not just scroll past the posts and ignore them?
Quote: coachbellyI don't care why it was set up that way.
I asked why you would block someone,
then read their posts anyway?
Every blocked post leaves gaps in the conversations,
so you open the blocked posts to follow the conversation?
What's the point of going through all that?
Why bother blocking the posts in the first place,
why not just scroll past the posts and ignore them?
Because I am a human being of free will who can make those choices
And the WOV designers made those choices available.
Why do people who vomit the day after they drink heavy still do it?
Why do people who know smoking causes lung cancer still do it?
Human choice, what an interesting foible
Quote: darkozBecause I am a human being of free will who can make those choices
And the WOV designers made those choices available.
You do it because you may and you choose to.
That's quite an explanation...your sentiments are
a beacon of liberty enlightening the forum.
Excellent. I trust ExpectedValue made clear the terms of the arrangement in whatever conversations you had.Quote: WizardI report that I just received 0.00850712 BTC from Expected Value, which at the moment has a value of $500.10, for purposes of escrow.
Any idea why not the other $2k?
Great bit of theatre! Please keep us informed.
Big Thank You from me to ExpectedValue for trying to make this happen. I wonder who you are, mystery forum hero.?
Please accept my apologies for stirring up the T's and C's aspect
Quote: OnceDearExcellent. I trust ExpectedValue made clear the terms of the arrangement in whatever conversations you had.
Any idea why not the other $2k?
Great bit of theatre! Please keep us informed.
Big Thank You from me to ExpectedValue for trying to make this happen. I wonder who you are, mystery forum hero.?
Please accept my apologies for stirring up the T's and C's aspect
Wizard is now the arbiter of what the conditions of the agreement are.
If for example, MDawg says he agreed to one version and Wizard thinks that version makes no sense then MDawg will need to capitulate.
And same goes for ExpectedValue.
Any cross talk by Coach Belly, Once Dear or even myself Darkoz should be irrelevant.
The Wizard can say if the terms of the conditions were agreed as discussed or patently unfair to one side or the other
Thanks for the feedback. I fixed your typo. $:o)Quote: BoSoxOnceDear, I think you should be ashamed of yourself trying to legitimise a complete mess up between the content of two threads. MDawg, is just being cagy old innocent MD LOL. Expected Value should not send any more money until he is satisfied with the terms. If the deal falls through and any suspensions happen then they should include OnceDear. This supposed deal is complete BS
I hope there are no resulting suspensions.
I do also hope that they can make this happen and I'm impressed by the effort EV is making, not to mention the expense. I'd hate to see the proposition unravel on a technicality, and have the two threads does make for a messy tangle of misunderstandings.
Quote: BoSoxOnceDear, I think you should be ashamed of yourself trying to legitimise a complete mess up between the content of two threads.
Once Dear has been totally fair and consistent throughout this exercise,
what else should have been EXPECTED from him?
Quote: coachbellyOnce Dear has been totally fair and consistent throughout this exercise,
what else should have been EXPECTED from him?
A better understanding of the nuances involved?
Quote: OnceDearGreat bit of theatre! Please keep us informed.
Big Thank You from me to ExpectedValue for trying to make this happen. I wonder who you are, mystery forum hero.?
Does anyone else see the irony in the fact that this is a challenge made by a guy with the handle "expected value", to claims in a thread located in the LOSING BETTING SYSTEMS section of this forum, right there with the other LOSING progression betting systems. Great stuff, ExpectedValue!
Not at all wasted on me. May Expected Value prevail.....Quote: kewljDoes anyone else see the irony in the fact that this is a challenge made by a guy with the handle "expected value", to claims in a thread located in the LOSING BETTING SYSTEMS section of this forum, right there with the other LOSING progression betting systems. Great stuff, ExpectedValue!
.....
..... Though from the terms so far, It's +EV for MDawg, for maybe the first time since he posted here,
It would almost have been the perfect irony for ExpectedValue to be a sock of MDawg's. How Machiavellian would that have been?
I don't for one second suspect or accuse ExpectedValue of being a sock.
😲 Ya think?Quote: BoSoxMDawg, is just being cagy old innocent MD LOL. Expected Value should not send any more money until he is satisfied with the terms. This supposed deal is complete BS
Quote: kewljDoes anyone else see the irony in the fact that this is a challenge made by a guy with the handle "expected value", to claims in a thread located in the LOSING BETTING SYSTEMS section of this forum, right there with the other LOSING progression betting systems. Great stuff, ExpectedValue!
I've thought the exact same thing! I was questioning the motives of EV, as he clearly offered a +EV opportunity to MDawg. But once EV forwarded the $500 to the Wizard, to me that signifies he is willing to spend his own money to find out if MDawg is legit. It is telling, however, that EV entered the forum specifically in the MDawg thread. But anyway, MDawg has put the ball in EV's court, and it is up to EV to affirmatively say he accepts MDawg's terms, and forward the $2k to the Wiz to escrow. If the bet is confirmed here on the forum, I will start a new thread to discuss the betting odds on the result.
Quote: SOOPOOA better understanding of the nuances involved?
Are you of the opinion that he didn't fully understand the nuances involved?
I didn't get that impression at all.
No. Please don't. This thread can mutate to that purpose without giving MDawg another dedicated thread.Quote: SOOPOOIf the bet is confirmed here on the forum, I will start a new thread to discuss the betting odds on the result.
Quote: OnceDear
It would almost have been the perfect irony for ExpectedValue to be a sock of MDawg's. How Machiavellian would that have been?
I don't for one second suspect or accuse ExpectedValue of being a sock.
EV is not a sock. I always say it is not that hard to figure out "who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking". I don't know who EV is, but he has caught my eye since I returned to this forum last summer. For one thing, I like his handle. :) He IS an advantage player and either lives in or spends a lot of time in Vegas. I believe he has stated this, so not giving anything away. The only thing that makes getting a read on him a little difficult is he doesn't post all that much. Mostly (this being the exception), stays out of the fray and drama. Posts when he has something to say.
I can assure you he is well aware this meet up or whatever you want to call it that he proposed, is not +EV for him. I think he is just tired of reading all the BS and decided to put up a little money to get the ball rolling and maybe get to the bottom of this nonsense.
Quote: AxelWolfExplain why a minimum bet should matter to anyone? Makes no sense especially if you are trend betting or what ever you want to call it...
If a guy wants to bet $5 until he sees a trend or whatever and then he makes huge bets why isn't that appropriate? Obviously, that's not good for the person making the offer as it can easily give someone an advantage.
Because you could have an early run of +1k (or whatever) on three hands betting 1k/hand, and if the minimum is only $100, you could just grind out $100 hands hoping not to ridiculously deviate from the expected win rate. That was pretty much my entire strategy for producing a winning shoe when I did my little experiment...except I was even more conservative to start.
Im not talking about winning the challenge, we already know it's a +EV situation and ways to properly bet in that situation. The real question is, will we see an average bet of 1k. He has been asked to play like "he normally does" and not change that based on winning the challenge.Quote: Mission146Because you could have an early run of +1k (or whatever) on three hands betting 1k/hand, and if the minimum is only $100, you could just grind out $100 hands hoping not to ridiculously deviate from the expected win rate. That was pretty much my entire strategy for producing a winning shoe when I did my little experiment...except I was even more conservative to start.
Quote: AxelWolfIm not talking about winning the challenge, we already know it's a +EV situation and ways to properly bet in that situation. The real question is, will we see an average bet of 1k. He has been asked to play like "he normally does" and not change that based on winning the challenge.
He has posted many trip reports with far lower average bet sizes.
It seems like MDawg, EV, and the Wiz have agreed to terms. You and me and the rest of the peanut gallery can now await the results.
IIRC he said he bets an average of 1k per hand. Do you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?Quote: SOOPOOHe has posted many trip reports with far lower average bet sizes.
It seems like MDawg, EV, and the Wiz have agreed to terms. You and me and the rest of the peanut gallery can now await the results.
Quote: AxelWolfDo you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?
Not just RFB for weeks at a time, but luxury suites.....with ketchup bottles. Lol.
Quote: AxelWolfIIRC he said he bets an average of 1k per hand. Do you really think they comp people who are betting low amounts, enough to get you RFB for weeks/ months at a time when you play Baccarat?
This now multi week trip started with average bets of $500 and escalated.
Quote: kewljNot just RFB for weeks at a time, but luxury suites.....with ketchup bottles. Lol.
He thinks that he is a comp hustler because he is an over-generous tipper. Not realizing with all cost of the tipping he is actually paying for all his comps. No MDawg they are not separate things, the expense of tipping is an expense no matter how you look at it. Especially when you are playing a negative expectation game. Although, what are the odds to agent 007?
How much do you think they charge off on your comps at a higher-end property with luxury suites and amenities? We are not talking about some dumpy off-trip property here.Quote: SOOPOOI’m not the comp expert here. But if he is betting $700 a hand is that around $20 a hand in expected loss? And say he bets 150 hands a day? So expected loss of $3k a day. That’s not enough for a suite with some takeout food?
Quote: SOOPOOI’m not the comp expert here. But if he is betting $700 a hand is that around $20 a hand in expected loss? And say he bets 150 hands a day? So expected loss of $3k a day. That’s not enough for a suite with some takeout food?
That's about $8 in expected loss. Let's take 30% of that to get back in comps, so $2.40. 150 hands of that and you're at $360.
However, there are ways of slow-playing baccarat to trick them that you bet more than you actually do.
