Is it possible to gain an edge in the sidebet pot of gold?

I recently encountered a side bet on "freebet blackjack" tables called "Pot of Gold" The idea behind it is have as many splits (Not including face cards) and doubles (hard 9, 10, or 11). The payout is as follows:
Amount of Splits/Doubles Payout
5-7 100:1
4 50:1
3 30:1
2 12:1
1 3:1
I saw that the game had about a 2 percent house edge, but considering that the bet cannot possible win if there is a facecard in your hand, and an ace reduces the odds a lot (can only win if dealt another ace), I was wondering if a certain negative true count would move the odds into the players favor? (Using hi-Lo 2-6: +1, 7-9:even, and 10-A: -1)
One other thing I like about the bet is that you can bet more on the sidebet than the hand(so you can still bet minimum when the count is negative).
When I played recently, I'd occasionally throw out a bet whenever the true count was below -2 and was holding my own. Let me know if anyone can crunch the numbers and what the trigger count would be for when to bet it(and possible the odds)! Thanks!

Can you double a hard 9 against a dealer face card?
Do you actually HAVE to double or if you are dealt any 9,10, or 11 that’s good enough?
There will of course be strategy changes that will raise the house edge on the main game... you’ll split deuces against a face card..... then double (if allowed) both hands, etc....

Yes, you can double a hard nine against a facecard but do not have to (although on the table I think it is in your best interest to still double) and doubling after splits is allowed. Theoretically if you were not playing the side bet and were dealt a pair of 5s it is better to double, but obviously with the side bet it is best to split.

There's a Wizard article about it:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/free-bet-blackjack/
See pay table 2:
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 2
TOKENS PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
7 100 0.000002 0.000203
6 100 0.000027 0.002713
5 100 0.000194 0.019445
4 50 0.000847 0.042333
3 30 0.003866 0.115973
2 12 0.013488 0.161861
1 3 0.148155 0.444466
0 -1 0.833420 -0.833420
Total 1.000000 -0.046426
4.6% house edge. Not sure what splitting fours would add

I have seen the article, but do you know if there is a card counting system that can be used to beat the sidebet similarily to the "lucky lucky" sidebet? That one is vulnerable by using a card counting system that assigns a count of -2 to each Ace, 6, and 8... a -3 to each 7... and a +1 to every other card. That sidebet is at advantage for the player when the true count is +3. Just wondering if anyone knows a system for the "pot of gold" as well.

Quote: theguy2160

I have seen the article, but do you know if there is a card counting system that can be used to beat the sidebet similarily to the "lucky lucky" sidebet? That one is vulnerable by using a card counting system that assigns a count of -2 to each Ace, 6, and 8... a -3 to each 7... and a +1 to every other card. That sidebet is at advantage for the player when the true count is +3. Just wondering if anyone knows a system for the "pot of gold" as well.

I don't have the numbers for you, but off the top of my head I'd say hi-lo would have a pretty good inverse correlation with this bet, especially on the double side. Lower cards and fewer aces mean more hard 9 10 11 totals, fewer soft hands. Also slightly more odds of pairs which are not tens.

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount6.htm
This page confirms our initial guess.
You want to look at the bottom chart, splits/no index and DDs/no index. That's more representative of how often you get the chance to split/DD, not how often you actually do it. Ignore the other plots.
If the initial HE is 4% this would be quite vulnerable to hi-lo. Since your actions are gonna be different than what a basic strategy player would do, the only way to find out exactly by how much is to run a simulation.

I’ve never used a simulation before (especially one that includes a true count) do you know of a website or link?

Freebet basic strategy already obtains a token in every spot where it is legally possible to obtain a token (even doubling 9vA). So there are no strategy deviations which would boost your EV on this side bet, except splitting fives, which is only worth it if your side bet is large relative to your main bet.