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Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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November 15th, 2020 at 5:44:51 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If it's a single-deck or double-deck game, shouldn't you stand on 16 when the dealer shows a 10?



Nope. If forced to always play the same way, then hit.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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November 19th, 2020 at 8:04:26 AM permalink
Apologies if this has been asked:

Have you or Heather been to a smash room? It's a place where you pay to don protective gear and use a softball bat to smash things like e-waste and thrift store dinnerware.

It sounds like fun at first, but I feel like it might be just sad afterward.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 19th, 2020 at 11:28:25 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Apologies if this has been asked:

Have you or Heather been to a smash room? It's a place where you pay to don protective gear and use a softball bat to smash things like e-waste and thrift store dinnerware.

It sounds like fun at first, but I feel like it might be just sad afterward.



That has not been asked, thanks. I can't speak for Heather, but I never have. Doesn't sound like the kind of thing I would enjoy. I never understood the pleasure others get in breaking things.

We have been to some escape rooms.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kewlj
kewlj
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November 19th, 2020 at 11:42:03 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Nope. If forced to always play the same way, then hit.



I know as a "math guy" you are all about squeezing every advantage, playing every hand optimally, hence the comment "If forced to play the same way", which I take to really mean play optimally for each situation. In some cases that will be hitting, in others standing.

But as a card counter who's top priority is longevity, that 16 vs 10 hand is one of the most telling for a card counter. A "tell" if you will. So I avoid that "tell" by playing every hand the same regardless of count. And you pick the way to play based on what will be correct the majority of the time when your bigger bets are out. You will be playing incorrect a very small amount of time when your minimum wagers are out. So for 16 vs 10, I would always stand. I am sure you (wizard) know but for those that don't this concept is know as card counters basic strategy.
kewlj
kewlj
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November 19th, 2020 at 11:57:59 AM permalink
By the way, other examples of card counter basic strategy would be always doubling 9 vs 2, 8 vs 6, 8 vs 5, A8 vs 6, A8 vs 5, standing on 12 vs 2 and 12 vs 3, doubling 9 vs 7. Most of these plays become the correct plays at TC of +2, +3, and are incorrect at neutral counts, for a small cost, But you get the big advantage of playing the same all the time, avoiding tells. Also many pit folks and even surveillance don't even know index plays, so this group just sees you playing "wrong" and that is huge for longevity. lol

The one card counter basic strategy play I have trouble with is insurance. CCBS says to always take insurance. The cost of that starts to be a little higher so I usually do a hodge podge sort of play, insuring my better hands, 19, 20, 21 at the low counts and everything at +3 or more. Not optimal. Not really CCBS, kind of a middle ground.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
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November 19th, 2020 at 3:42:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That has not been asked, thanks. I can't speak for Heather, but I never have. Doesn't sound like the kind of thing I would enjoy. I never understood the pleasure others get in breaking things.

We have been to some escape rooms.



Thanks for the answer! I tuned in today but see no livestream.

From an exhaustive 10 seconds of Googling, it appears Vegas has two smash rooms and Reno has one.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 19th, 2020 at 5:11:31 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

But as a card counter who's top priority is longevity, that 16 vs 10 hand is one of the most telling for a card counter. A "tell" if you will. So I avoid that "tell" by playing every hand the same regardless of count. And you pick the way to play based on what will be correct the majority of the time when your bigger bets are out. You will be playing incorrect a very small amount of time when your minimum wagers are out. So for 16 vs 10, I would always stand. I am sure you (wizard) know but for those that don't this concept is know as card counters basic strategy.



I agree with you 100%, especially on standing if you're counting and you always play the same way. However, I must admit, I hate giving up EV for the sake of cover. I was always a recreational counter who didn't really care if I got backed-off.

With borderline plays, I sometimes ask the dealer for advice, with the intention to follow whatever he says. However, most of the time, they refuse to give any advice, probably for fear of getting blamed if I lost.

I hope you get a chance to read this post, a lot of work went into it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Gialmere
Gialmere
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December 1st, 2020 at 12:24:57 PM permalink
You are currently working on a series of silly poker game videos. Which game do you like the most and, if different, which game would you bet big money on?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
Gialmere
Gialmere
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Thanks for this post from:
MrCasinoGames
December 4th, 2020 at 7:08:26 PM permalink
Episode #47
Stream Date: 12-03-2020
Length: 01:00:10
Topic: Ask Me Anything

Subjects
What's the Wizard doing?
Red Rock and Calico Basin
Wonder Woman
Lottery: Sequential numbers
Silly Poker Games
Winning a long shot bet
Smash rooms
New table game problems
Online casino certifications
Vegas casino theming
Rolls/spins/hands per hour
Father Michael confessions
Craps: Quick reference stats
The US national debt
Star Trek: Q
Tipping for a room upgrade
Slots: Skill based games
Moon Pi
Sports Betting: Touts
Las Vegas Raiders
Is the Wizard a pro gambler?
The McNugget challenge
Craps: Wizard's side bets
Silverton and Circa
Craps: Hedging bets
A bankroll based on taxes
Casino card shuffler cheating
A whammy
Craps: High minimums

Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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December 5th, 2020 at 4:10:53 AM permalink
btw the story of at least the 'double whammy', if not the whammy, really begins with Lil Abner ...

Quote: googling 'whammy etymology'

associated from the 1950s with the cartoon strip Li'l Abner, in which the hillbilly Evil-Eye Fleegle could ‘shoot a whammy’ (to put a curse on somebody) by pointing a finger with one eye open, and a ‘double whammy’ with both eyes open.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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