Upcoming trip

I'll stretch this category a bit with a post about Beau Rivage in Biloxi, MS. At least it is an MGM property...............

In case anyone is going to be around Biloxi Super Bowl weekend......... I met Doc there last year, and that was pretty neat. I would like to meet others from this forum, if the timing works out.

Since our friends backed out of a trip to Vegas, my wife and I will be going to Beau Rivage in early Feb. for a couple of days of craps play. Well, I hope my BR lasts for two days this time! 2010 was a brutal year for me on the craps tables, so 2011 needs to start fast and be much kinder to me. While I am not getting to Vegas, it is not all bad. First off, I get to pocket the $700 airfare that Vegas would have cost me for the 2 of us, so more craps BR for Beau. And, we just saved 5.5 hours of travel time. Finally, I can look forward to the player friendly Vig only on the win for the Buy 4,5,9,10. Of course, now I need to practice my betting patterns, to make sure my 5/9 bets are even amounts now...... :-)

I really want to try my big bet system, where I bet $480 inside ($120 on 5 6 8 9) right after the point, and after one hit take it down to $44 inside and play pull - press thereafter. WinCraps sessions have shown some decent results with this, but it really requires a minimum $2,000 session buy in to not bust out on back to back point out shooters. The buy for the 5 / 9 means I can place/buy bet with a HE of 1.67% , 2.0% , 1.52% (4/10 , 5/9 , 6/8 respectively), which gets me close to the 1.414% for the Passline. But, since Beau also offers 10X odds, the decision to PL or not PL gets harder. If shooters are making points, nothing is sweeter than those 10X odds. But watching $110 get raked in every time a shooter outs, is damaging to the BR.

I would like to ask the other forum members to please not bother Miss Cleo in early Feb. And certainly not for some football game! I would like to know I have a clear line to channel her psychic powers and her ability to point out the shooters who know what they are doing, and will make points.

Wellllll....four ways to make a 5. Five ways to make a six. Five ways to make an eight. Four ways to make a nine.

Six ways to make a seven.

So 14 decisions out of twenty, you make either $140 or $168. Six decisions out of 20, you get nuked. Minus $480.

This has the potential to not come out well. Get nuked a few times and you're down a couple or three grand before you know what hit you. Be sure you get rated for your action--you might need therapy if you get off to a bad start.

Some decent results is akin to saying she has a nice personality.
I love craps and think it may be my favorite game but it can be a mother f.
I never buy numbers but do the come and play the odds behind.

Like I said I love craps. It can be hours of fun or the walk of shame before the CW returns w your first drink.

Quote: Wavy70

Like I said I love craps. It can be hours of fun or the walk of shame before the CW returns w your first drink.

At least you last long enough to order the drink. Even if the Tray Lizard appears promptly, my Bankroll can be gone.

I understand the advantage of the pay the vig on a win only ... but its still serious money. Good luck with it. What you seem to be really hoping for is an avoidance of any prompt Seven Out. These Point, Seven-out sequences will kill off your place/buy bets.

Its nice that you are avoiding the travel time and the travel costs.

Good luck, particularly with that bewitched egg.

I posted the identical strategy, albeit on a slightly smaller scale, in my How to win at a cold craps and be ready when it turns hot thread.

The first time I tried it, I hit a string of three roll shooters: point, inside, 7-out. I was the only person at the table making any money. OK, it wasn't much, but at least I was winning.

The two times I tried it after that, it was a series of two roll shooters.

I don't use that system anymore.

I am not touting this as a fool proof system by any means, and the PL+ full odds with CB + full odds is a strategy with a lower house edge. However, I also know that in 2010 I bet mostly PL and CB and got my arse kicked when nobody could make any points. I watched my FREE odds bets get raked away time after time. I had been playing with this big bet strategy on WinCraps and it had better potential than most strategies I was looking at.

So the last 3 times I went off on a craps trip, I mentally tracked how this strategy would have made out. Granted, I only tracked if the big bet won, or if a 7 out took it down. As mkl pointed out, the win is not that big, so a key component of this strategy is the pull / press after the regression, and I did not take any mental notes on how those bets would have fared. On one notable session, the first 3 shooters all went point 7 out, so that would have been a 5 minute, -$1,440 disaster. But on a large majority of the other sessions this strategy would have held its own.

The part I like about this, whether or not I have a positive outcome for this shooter is decided right up front. If the shooter makes an inside number (18 chances, not 14 as said above), then I have made money for this shooter. The $140 or $168 covers my regression to $44 inside or $94 across if I decide to pop 25 on the 4/10. Either way, I have action in play, and I am still ahead for this shooter. The Pull - Press means I am taking more profit during the roll, but at the same time, my action is getting bigger, so in the event this happens to be the monster roll, I will still be heavily invested along the way and should make out well.

Since I am reinvesting (hard to use that word with a straight face in reference to a craps bet) part of the big bet win, I need to win 4 big bets to every one that I lose to an immediate 7 out.

WIN: 18 out of 36 = 50.0% ___(5,6,8,9)
LOSE: 6 out of 36 = 16.7% ____(7)
NOP: 12 out of 36 = 33.3% ____(2,3,4,10,11,12)

So, I have a 3 to 1 edge that I will win vs lose, and I have a 50% chance of winning on the first roll.
Of course, to get this advantage, I am only getting paid 150 (avg) to 480 , giving the house a $30 edge on this action.

Have I done this right?

When talking about the PL bet, the 2 to 1 come out roll advantage is heavily touted. Here I have a 3 to 1 advantage on the next roll. Granted, the PL bet is paying even money, while I am getting slightly less than 1 to 3.

Bottom line, yes this strategy comes with a higher HE, therefore the expected loss is higher with the big bet. However, craps really boils down to one simple concept. Is your money on the number that rolls? If it is, you will be a winner. If not, you will lose. For any given roll, you don't lose more because you are making a bad bet. You only lose what was on the table.

I don't know if I will use this strategy at Beau, as I'm not sure I will have enough BR for it. WinCraps showed that $1000 buy-in goes bust way too often. $2000 buy-in has quite a few less busts, but of course they still occur (and they hurt a lot more than twice as much). $3000 buy-in is the amount that stands the best chance, with the $480 bet. Guess I need to pull a page from our friend, 98steps, and seek investors. Anyone want in? LOL. If my friend goes along, we may pool a session buy-in to give this a go. Either way, I will continue to track the number of immediate 7 outs to see if this strategy would have worked.

I play craps probably more than your average bear, so I've saw pretty much everything...
Notably, there is one older gentlemen that plays at my home casino...
He USED to do $500 Iron Cross ($150 6/8, $125 5, $75 Field)
He has since stepped up to $1000 Iron Cross (Double all bets)
What he does is bets it for ONE ROLL, whatever hits he takes it down. He effectively does this ONCE a day, EVERDAY. (I've saw him do it twice sometimes, but then I don't see him the next day, etc)
I (and others) always think how stupid this is, because continually he's only winning $210 (OK, he'll win $300 or $450 if the 2 or 12 hits) at best, and losing $1000 at worst (and believe me, I've saw him lose the wad instantly more than a couple times)

If a betting system helps you control your bankroll then I say do it. I'm sure everyone knows though that no combination of -ev bets=+ev. You're just hoping to avoid that 1 in 6 too often, so good luck! My last time playing on a cruise ship I placed all the numbers after the point was established and hit a streak of 4 straight 7 outs without collecting anything.

Personally I don't see how people can play the system you talk about. The best you can do is win one small bet at a time and there will be plenty of times you have to watch as the numbers pour out of the dice and your bets are off. Sounds like a good way to torture yourself.

Quote: clarkacal

If a betting system helps you control your bankroll then I say do it. I'm sure everyone knows though that no combination of -ev bets=+ev. You're just hoping to avoid that 1 in 6 too often, so good luck! My last time playing on a cruise ship I placed all the numbers after the point was established and hit a streak of 4 straight 7 outs without collecting anything.

Personally I don't see how people can play the system you talk about. The best you can do is win one small bet at a time and there will be plenty of times you have to watch as the numbers pour out of the dice and your bets are off. Sounds like a good way to torture yourself.

I have been a part of big rolls, and I know I would not be able to sit by with no action. I think you missed a key part of this scheme. When the big bet hits, the bets are taken down to the minimum, so there is still action on every number. However, I also have banked winnings, so even if a 7 out occurs on roll 2 after a point, I am still a winner for that shooter. The action on the table then becomes a pull/press so a shooter who goes on a roll will mean I am right there taking part in a good win.

And with the favorable rules in MS, the place/buy bets are 1.52% , 1.67% , and 2.00%. Not as good as the PL/bets with 10x odds, but I can make money even if no points are being made, assuming I can avoid immediate 7 outs........... which is a big assumption of course.

Just got back from the Beau Rivage, and another net loss, although not a total disaster. I played 2 (1/2 hour) sessions of Pai Gow poker, ending up +15 and +30. I did not attempt to bank, primarily because my cards were horrible, and there were 4 other players on the table. My wife had a nice $500 win on the 2 penny slots, but of course she put it back through the machines over the next 2 days.... :-)

Now for the craps sessions.
We arrived Sat. evening and I was on the table by 10:30 PM. I did not have enough bankroll to feel comfortable enough to try the big bet strategy, even when I reduced it to $360 across. Too bad though, because I kept track of the immediate 7 outs and the ratio was about 7:1, so that strategy would have been a very profitable one to use this trip.

BR has 10x , but I started with $10 PL with 5x odds and inside place bets. COLD COLD table. I would get paid once, and then lose the bets. Six shooters in a row failed to make a single point. I then tried PL with 5x odds and 2 CB with 5x odds. More nothing. I drop into conserve mode, trying to just ride through until someone can make some numbers. Finally the table starts making a point or two, but every time I upped my odds bet, 7 out. So I would get paid on 2 PL bets, but then lose it all as soon as I upped the odds. I had already decided going in that I was not going to play all night, but instead if the table was not hot, to go to bed and get up in the morning, to play in the game around 8:00 AM. Past experience has shown this time slot to have a good game with players who play fast, and don't make many garbage bets in the center area. So I give up at 1:00 AM and go to bed, down way more than I should have been. I also used my $150 in free play ($100 and 2x $25 chips) during this session. The first $25 chip went on the PL and was lost to a craps 3. The second $25 chip won on a come out 7. The $100 chip was played on the DP and of course it too was lost on a come out 11. What are the odds of 3 promotional chips all being resolved on the first roll?

Sunday morning we get done with breakfast much later than I was hoping, but the game was still pretty decent, albeit more crowded than I would have liked. I like a game with 2 to 6 players. Any more than that and the game gets choppy. I play for a couple of hours and make about 600. Got close to my 1000 goal a couple of times, but could never get that point with $100 odds to hit for me at the right time. Still, this is a good start to getting back to square. I had to quit to go pick up our tix to "RAIN, The Beatles tribute". After getting the tix, I go back to the other craps table and win another 200 in the hour before the show is to start. This was a real grind and I was never in a position to make any sort of real bet. My rating took a beating in this session (Sunday evening I asked the host to tell me my ratings for each session). After the show, I head back to the craps tables. Half the table is on the Dont. After losing $400 in the space of 30 minutes, I quit and take my wife to the Biloxi Grand, so we can keep my Harrah's Reward points active.

The Grand has two $5 games going, so I jump onto the one with the fewest players. Great move! A nice cold table with few players lets me lose all my profit for the day, in the space of 40 minutes. #@(%*$*%$#)(^#$) cold tables any way! They are so bad I finally decide to go to the Don't. Of course, as soon as I do that, point is 6 or 8. I won't ever take a DP bet down, but I just can't lay odds on the 6/8, or if I do, it is only 1x or 2x at most. Instead, I put money on the DC and hope to get another number (invariably the other 6 or 8). So now I have 2 crappy DP points. So I opt for a second DC, which is the 11. A third try gets me a 10. FINALLY I have a good DC point. So I lay $30 odds, at which point the shooter rolls, 8 , 10 , 7. So I lose $45 and win $5. Now no one is left to play, so I put $25 on DP and shoot from the Don't. Point 4! Sweet. I lay my remaining $100 as odds and 2 rolls later make the 4. Second point I had made while in the Grand. This session I had a $25 free play bet as well, which I did manage to keep in play on the PL, but of course I lost the bet.

With my $600 buy-in gone, my wife and I decide to use our free buffet coupons at the Grand. I was expecting the worst, but it really was not bad at all. Since I am trying to lose weight, the free buffet coupons are very welcome. I don't feel like I need to stuff myself to get value. Instead I can eat a salad and try a few nibbles of other items and be perfectly content. After dinner I decided to try the other table. I cash $300 more to see if I can get something going. I got ahead about $200 but once again every time I would load up the odds, I would lose that point and be back to even. Eventually I lost the $300. (Note to self - No more serious money at the Grand. Play $200 bankroll up to $1000 or bust AND LEAVE.) No more chasing money there. We head back to the Beau, but I do not want to risk Monday's money, so we end up watching the game and hitting the sack. I have NEVER been in a casino and gone to bed that early EVER, but hey, I will be sure to be up early for the Monday morning game.

Monday morning I head down to the table and CRAP! The only table that is open is the crapless game, and no one is playing. However, one of the dealers is a guy I have gotten to know so I go over and chat with him. Turns out they will not open a real craps table until noon. BOOOOO! Another player shows, so I decide to just try and play regular craps on the crapless table. I get the dice, make the $10 PL bet and roll a ....................... 3. @$#%$#%#$#@ Yes, I am getting the message...... Short version. I drop $400 on this game and swear I will NEVER play on a crapless table EVER again. Go find my wife, head to breakfast, and then head to the IP casino to collect a $35 free play there.

The IP has only one table open, but it is a $5 table. They have the All Small, All Tall, and All bet which I am dying to try. Of course, I can never remember to bet the stupid thing. I get on the table and will be the next shooter. I make a few bucks off the current shooter and then it is my turn. Per usual, I forget to make the bet. I cannot make my point, but I do manage to roll the All Tall bet with no one on it (pays 34 to 1). Two shooters later he makes the ALL bet (175 to 1), again with no one on it. This table is okay, but we are packed like sardines and when some players start making horn, yo, smoking joes, whirly world bets, I want out. So I move to a newly opened $10 table, which turns out to be completely FRIGID. I'm not sure I won more than 4 or 5 bets total on this table. And once again, my $35 free play loses to a come out 12 this time. Unreal! $210 in free play with 5 chips, 4 out of the 5 were resolved on the first roll, and 4 of the 5 were losers. IP takes the remaining bankroll. (Note to Self -- please win next time at IP. I like the casino and craps game, but I need to win some money there). This is where my wife won her $500 slots though, so the trip there was a happy experience for her first time there. Life is good.

Monday night continues in next post.

The Beau has gone to M-Life rewards card (much like Harrah's Total Rewards). No more going in to the host and getting a comp to the restaurant. Instead, they tell you to give the waiter your M-Life card, and they will pay for your meal until you run out comp value. This system SUCKS! Under the old host based system I would have had a comp to any restaurant there, even with the poor rating I received for the 2 short Sunday afternoon sessions. With the M-Life I only had about $60 in comps up to this point. So, we decided to use our Beau free buffet coupons for dinner instead. They have a very good buffet, so it is not an awful thing to eat there.

After a lengthy dinner break spent mostly killing time and nibbling, I decide to take $600 to the craps tables for the last shot. They have two tables going, one is the crapless game, so I choose the other table. It has a couple of DP players, but mostly is right way players. The game has a decent flow to it, but the table is choppy, so after an hour I still have 600. Hey, better than being down. The table is getting packed in though, so when they open the table behind us, I decide to go to the new table. I have $543. In no time flat we have 6 players on the table, with a DP on the opposite end. I get my favorite position on the left end of the bank, right next to the dealer. The third time the dice come to me, I get that perfectly calm feeling I have had before. It is hard to describe, but I knew it as soon as it hit me. Nobody had wonky bets out there. There were place bets, but no screwball amounts. There were hard ways. And most importantly, nobody was on the right front corner of the table, so I had plenty of area to throw the dice into that corner of the table. I made 10 points over 30 minutes, and just slaughtered the place numbers. The Beau has a 3x 12 for the field, and I was throwing a lot of field numbers, so I was betting that. $10 and just leave it out there. $10 to $20 to $40, and then take the winnings. At one point I hit 8 straight field numbers. At the end of the roll I had $1800. This was lighter than it should have been, but I was cautious at the start of the roll, as I did not have money to waste. Over the next 2 hours I had 2 more good rolls of 4 and 5 points, unfortunately we just couldn't string 2 or 3 shooters together to be able to make that big run. As the table cooled off, I ended up playing by myself. I set my cut off at $1500, and when I hit that I cashed out at $1458. As I was on my way to the cashier, I noticed a spot open on the other table, so I decided to play the $58.

I was still holding the chips in my hand, so the box noticed the 1400. I placed the 6 for $30 and bought the 9 for $25. The 6 hit twice for $70 and the $25 paid me $37 3x, so I had some money to work with. A short time later the boxman changed, and as they were discussing the rating slips I overheard the current box tell the new guy that I was holding $1400 in chips in my pocket. Man they watch that stuff like a hawk. I played for about 60 minutes, and when two shooters in a row lost out, I colored up for $1024! Nice run from a $58 start. I also tipped the dealers well during the run, so after coloring up, I didn't really feel like giving them the $24. As I was standing there debating it, the next shooter rolled a point 9. Hmmmm, 24 bet on the edge of the PL would pay $35 (Buy 9). Why not? So I put my $24 into play. Shooter rolls the 9 about 4 rolls later, and now I have $59. I then buy the 5 for $25 and the 9 for $30, and he hits me like crazy! I play for 2 more shooters and the $24 gets colored up for $595. Regrettably I decided to call it a night, but since I had recovered almost 3/4 of my losses, it was a good stopping point. We would be leaving at 11:00 AM on Tuesday, so I headed to bed around 2:00 AM. On Tues. morning I had $197 in comp dollars on my card, so I got good ratings for the play Monday night (The box lady at the table where I cashed the $1458 gave me a good rating. I asked her when she walked past me after I had left the table.) This is still well short of the $400 restaurant comp I have received from the host in the past, for about the same level of play. I am okay with the M-Life card, but they either need to bump up the table game ratings, or comp a higher percent. Right now I feel the card is worth about 1/2 the comps as compared to the host.

Tues. morning we get up late and head to breakfast. We have about 2 1/2 hours to kill after, so I head over to craps, and this time the crapless game is closed and the regular table is open, so I decide to play. First shooter has a good roll and I am up $200. The table sputters for the next couple of shooters, and I have a miserable throw as well. I chase the table for an hour and finally give it up, down 800. DARN IT ALL. I worked so hard getting back to close and pissed it away. I decide to go play Pai Gow for the last hour. I cash 200 and cannot catch a break. I have crap cards, and when I get good hands, the dealer always has enough to cause a push. On one deal, the four players had 3 straights and 1 flush, and the dealer had an A high straight. All four hands pushed. With 30 minutes to go I was down $100 when my craps dealer walked past me on the way to his break and told me the craps table had heated up and was running very good for the last 10 minutes. I probably should have gone over, but I was not willing to spend any more money. I ended the Pai Gow session by betting my last $60, and I had $3 for the vig. I pushed 3 hands, including one really lucky hand where my 10 high low hand was enough to get me a push. On the fourth try, I won the $60 bet, and paid the vig, leaving me $120. So, I made a $120 bet, and won that hand too. $240-$6 vig = $234, but I had cashed $5 to make the $60 bet before, so $29 profit.

I did have one other pretty neat stat though. Based on some exchanges here, I decided I was going to start working my come odds on the come out roll. It seemed like any time I have come bets on the table, a new come out roll hits me and I lose getting paid on the odds. Sunday was the first time I called odds working on the come out, and it hit my come number! Wahoo! The second time, it misses me, but I don't lose the bet. The third time, I forget I have a come bet, and of course, it hits my number. DARN. I turned my come bet odds on every time after that (I don't come bet often, maybe 3 or 4 bets an hour). I got paid my odds on 8 out of 14 times, and I only lost my bets to 7s twice. So four times a number other than mine, or 7, was rolled. I had made the working call the 4 times I had the bets up, and then forgot to say it once on Monday. Of course my number rolled. I appealed to the boxman, saying I had called odds working every other time, and had not been paying attention this come out. The dealer backed my claim, and the box (thanks Jeff!) was gracious enough to pay me the odds bet ($50 odds for a $75 pay) .

Summary
I really need to learn how to play a grind style of craps for those cold cold times. I am losing way too much money on tables that are just not paying off.
I need to remember to call my come bet odds working. It was certainly a profitable move on this trip.
I need to figure out how to channel that good feeling that comes over me, so I can have more 10 point rolls, and fewer point 7 out efforts. (tongue in cheek)

Nice report. Glad you got paid on those 5 & 9 buys where they give you the favorable vig. For come odds, you can call them working "all day" as soon as you get on the table. I'm sure you know that, though.

Quote: teddys

Nice report. Glad you got paid on those 5 & 9 buys where they give you the favorable vig. For come odds, you can call them working "all day" as soon as you get on the table. I'm sure you know that, though.

I probably knew it, but I have never thought about doing that. It certainly makes sense, and I have done that with the few hardway bets I make (ie, always off on come-out). It always seems to surprise the dealer when I ask to have my odds working. And to make it worse, I leave my place bets off. I know that doesn't make sense, but the only reason I work my come odds is so many times my come bet becomes the next point, and I got tired of not getting paid. So it may be irrational, but it works for me.