TaxmanCPA
TaxmanCPA
Joined: Apr 25, 2011
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 44
August 21st, 2016 at 8:14:24 PM permalink
The 3 year anniversary of the placement of Match’em HI LO at Isle of Capri Hotel and Casino Waterloo will be September 30, 2016.

Match’em HI LO is a wildly successful new game concept that is not based on poker or blackjack.

Match'em HI LO has a cult following, as players will drive an hour from their local casino to go to Waterloo to play the game. There are players coming from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and business people from Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and Connecticut when traveling for work will stop at Waterloo just to play Match’em HI LO.

For the past 12 months (August 2015 through July 2016), the game has averaged a monthly drop over $250,000. The cumulative hold is almost 20%. A second table was added at the end of 2015.

This past weekend, after meeting with other casino executives in Iowa to present Match'em HI LO, Jim and I stopped in at Waterloo. It was 10PM on Friday, there were four players at each table. I sat down and tracked the dealer’s pace of play. On average, all four dealers, with five players (yes, they played the entire three hours I sat down) were able to get 14 rounds out of the 6 deck shoe and settle the play in 17 minutes or less.

The table minimum is $5 and maximum is $100. The player’s wagers varied greatly. I played $10 on the main bet, $5 on the optional three card player poker bonus and $5 on the optional Match’em bonus. Another player was playing $5 on the main bet, $10 on the poker bonus and $25 on the Match’em bonus.

Overview of Match'em HI LO
Player Bets
• Main Bet
• Poker Bet
• Match’em HI LO Bet

Main Bet:
Players try to predict if the point total of the Player’s three card hand will be either Higher OR Lower than the point total of the Dealer’s three card hand. Player receives three cards face down, Dealer receives five cards face down.

The value of each card is as follows:
Ace: 1 point (for “LO” hands) or 11 points (for “HI” Hands)
2 thru 10: face value
J, Q, K: 0 points (all face cards are worth zero)

Double Down on Main Bet:
Match’em HI LO offers the player an option to double down the original main bet.

Poker Bonus: This is based on the player’s three cards. The poker bonus pay table includes a suited pair and the 100:1 suited three of a kind as the game is dealt out of a six or eight deck shoe.

Match’em Bonus: Based on the dealer’s five cards, the dealer compares the rank of all five cards to the rank of player’s three cards. The top line payout is 100:1 for matching the rank of all five of the dealer's cards.

Dealer
Dealer flops over the five card Dealer hand and makes both a three card “LO” point total hand and a three card “HI” point total hand.
• Three lowest point value cards are the Dealer's "LO" hand
• The highest point value card in the Dealer’s “LO” hand is shared with the remaining two cards to make the Dealer’s “HI” hand
• Shared card is in both the Dealer’s “HI” and “LO” hand

Player Wins All Ties
Another uniqueness of Match’em HI LO is that PLAYER WINS ALL TIES.
Player wins if Player’s point total is equal to or less than the Dealer’s “LO” point total.
Player wins if Player’s point total is equal to or greater than the Dealer’s “HI” point total.

If a player has three face cards (zero point total), it is automatic winner, and as the player wins all ties, the player can double down on the winning hand!

Players have told us that the best part of the game is the “Match’em Bonus”. Two of the three parts of the game are known when the player receives their three cards. They know if they won the poker bonus, know their main bet point total, however, the Match’em bonus is unknown until the dealer flops their five cards.

Hand Examples:
Player has Q39 unsuited (12 point total). Player did not win the poker bonus, Player elects to go LO based on basic strategy. The Dealer has QQ289. The Dealer’s LO point total is 2 (QQ2) and the Dealer’s HI point total is 19 (289). Player lost main bet. Player matched three dealer cards (QQ9), payout is 3:1. Player’s bet was 10/5/5, Player won one unit.

Player has JKK unsuited (zero point total). Player won the poker bonus with a pair. Player point total of zero is a winner as player wins all ties. Player doubles down on the main bet. The Dealer has J3A67. The Dealer’s LO point total is 4 (J3A) and the Dealer’s HI point total is 24 (A67). Player lost the Match'em Bet as only one dealer card (J) was matched.

Statistical Analysis
• The Main Bet has a 41.64% win rate
o 2.66% house advantage per original bet
o 2.03% house advantage per total bet (with double down)
• The 3 Card Player Poker Bonus has a 29.34% win rate
o 3.33% house advantage
• The Match’em Bonus has a 28.10% win rate
o 3.12% house advantage
• Dealers average 40 hands per hour with four players

Marketing
You can play Match’em HI LO at Match'em HI LO
The Match’em HI LO app is in progress and plan to have it ready and approved by Apple in time for G2E.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 2225
August 21st, 2016 at 9:33:17 PM permalink
Taxman...congratulations on 3 years and creating a unique game that has found a niche!

I have been amazed at the success of Match'em Hi Lo at Waterloo and the unwillingness of other properties to spread the game to date...it sounds a lot like High Card Flush with its single installation in Laughlin for I think 18 months before Galaxy got a hold of it and blew the game up.

I recall you had a Sci Games deal in place...was it G2E 2014 that you guys were in their booth? The game is an "alien" concept type game and I am sure it is not an easy sell.

Sounds like you continue to attempt to get meetings and present the game to other properties...the game is clearly able to work with players at Waterloo and the performance figures are good...maybe a low to mid 20's Hold is the ticket to more installs as my recollection is poker type carnival games tend to be slightly north of your "almost 20%".

Wonderr if you get these few more points by driving the Match'em Bonus bet HE into the 5%-6% HE range when you sell your next install. 3% is too good for the players and perhaps having some higher HE side bet pay tables as options, you could promise low to mid 20's% Hold expectations.

Other than that, the game is clearly being received well by players and Waterloo has a game that draws players to their propertty...as an indie with a game concept that is a pretty good spot to be in.

I wish you & Sci Games well in selling additional table installations...it seems like they should be coming soon.
MrCasinoGames
MrCasinoGames
Joined: Sep 13, 2010
  • Threads: 196
  • Posts: 2517
August 21st, 2016 at 9:45:09 PM permalink
Congratulations TaxmanCPA.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
TaxmanCPA
TaxmanCPA
Joined: Apr 25, 2011
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 44
August 22nd, 2016 at 4:11:07 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

maybe a low to mid 20's Hold is the ticket to more installs as my recollection is poker type carnival games tend to be slightly north of your "almost 20%".

Wonderr if you get these few more points by driving the Match'em Bonus bet HE into the 5%-6% HE range when you sell your next install. 3% is too good for the players and perhaps having some higher HE side bet pay tables as options, you could promise low to mid 20's% Hold expectations.



Paradigm, you are spot on! A meeting I had last Friday, the DTG said the hold could be a little more. I stated that the bonuses had two other pay tables that were more favorable to the house. I also stated to consider reducing the table max. There were two months where a large wager bettor hit either the 25:1 bonus payout a couple of times during a session (I did it three times on Friday, had a straight flush and twice matched four of the dealer's cards) or hit a 100:1 bonus payout. Throw out those two months with single digit holds and the game is sitting with a hold at the low to mid 20's.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 2225
August 24th, 2016 at 7:12:20 AM permalink
But unfortunately you can't throw out the "infrequent" big wins :-). You have 3 years of data now with a good volume of play...to me that means you know what the game is going to do based on the current math set up and average player mistakes, etc. Today you have a game that players in one location enjoy playing and is holding just under a 20%.

I don't understand how reducing the table max will increase the hold percentage, but maybe I am missing something there.

The question is what is next & what is the best way you expand the footprint? That will involve analyzing the reasoning behind the resistance of new properties to put in a game that players play in decent volume at Waterloo.

Is it merely the hold % and if so, maybe pay table adjustments can fix that? Or is it something else?

I assume you have asked the question when you here a "no" from a prospect. At this point I would certainly be asking that question after meeting with a DTG that says no to your product and then installs a different new game.

Something like "So you were looking for new product and I presented you a game that has proven to get good play, hold 20% & be a different than your other poker variants on the floor. You decided that adding (insert new game that was chosen here) was a better option. I respect your decision and believe that you know your players & property better than I do, bit I am interestsd in learning why Match'em Hi Lo didn't make the cut. Can you give me some constructive critiques of the game, my presentation of the game, my pricing vs. their pricing, other reasons Match'em lost out, etc?"

Several of these exit interviews and the information provided are going to be very informative on what to do next to get from 1 table to 5 tables.

You may just have a niche product. My understanding is that there are games like that out there...they work very well in one or two locations and no where else. Dealer Bluff comes to mind and ME or Sci Games can certainly comment on that game (which I actually like, but rarely see). Who knows, but it is up to you to find out...I believe only you have the passion for Match'em Hi Lo required to move it forward at this point.
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
Joined: May 29, 2010
  • Threads: 82
  • Posts: 1320
August 24th, 2016 at 7:37:06 AM permalink
I agree with paradigm, reasoning the HE on the side wager should solve the issue. The 3% edge is to small. I used to have the same issue when I had a 2.68% HE side wager. Of course players loved it, but the hold was a good 7-10 lower than we expected and wanted to see. That minor change should fix the issue and have no effect of the players on the band scheme.

That all said, Congrats!!! Awesome to have a successful game on the market.
Last edited by: mrsuit31 on Aug 24, 2016
.
TaxmanCPA
TaxmanCPA
Joined: Apr 25, 2011
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 44
August 24th, 2016 at 11:10:39 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

The 3% edge is to small. I used to have the same issue when I had a 2.68% HE side wager. Of course players loved it, but the hold was a good 7-10 lower than we expected and wanted to see. That minor change should fix the issue and have no effect of the players on the band scheme.



I agree with both you and Paradigm. During the meetings with the DTGs, when they talk about the hold, I ask the open ended questions of "what do you want the hold to be?". The game can be dealt with 6 or 8 decks. The 6 deck and 8 deck have different odds with 3 different pay tables. Mix and match whatever pay table is needed to hit your hold goal.

Statistical Analysis [6 Deck]
• The Main Bet has a 41.64% win rate

o 2.60% house advantage per original bet
o 1.98% house advantage per total bet (with double down)

• The 3 Card Player Poker Bonus has a 29.34% win rate
o 4.60% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 5.08% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 6.09% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

• The Match’em Bonus has a 28.10% win rate
o 5.45% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 6.25% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 7.34% house advantage (Pay Table 3)


Statistical Analysis [8 Deck]
• The Main Bet has a 41.64% win rate

o 2.66% house advantage per original bet
o 2.03% house advantage per total bet (with double down)

• The 3 Card Player Poker Bonus has a 29.34% win rate
o 3.33% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 3.85% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 4.89% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

• The Match’em Bonus has a 28.10% win rate
o 3.12% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 3.99% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 4.97% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

There also is a hidden $1 Million Bonus
6 Deck has a house advantage of 10.65%
8 Deck has a house advantage of 6.82%

I always end the meeting with "We are close to completing our 3rd year in Waterloo which is unheard of in our industry for most games except the top few. Our question is not whether the other casinos surrounding Waterloo want our game, the question is why don't you have it already?"
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1790
August 24th, 2016 at 11:24:10 AM permalink
Who pays out the hidden million dollar bonus?
I think that could scare off smaller casinos unless they have insurance for that.
Don't teach an alligator how to swim.
Paradigm
Paradigm
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 2225
August 24th, 2016 at 11:36:20 AM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Who pays out the hidden million dollar bonus?
I think that could scare off smaller casinos unless they have insurance for that.


What is the Million Dollar Bonus? I thought top pay was 100-1.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
Joined: Aug 1, 2011
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1790
August 24th, 2016 at 11:39:36 AM permalink
Quote: TaxmanCPA

I agree with both you and Paradigm. During the meetings with the DTGs, when they talk about the hold, I ask the open ended questions of "what do you want the hold to be?". The game can be dealt with 6 or 8 decks. The 6 deck and 8 deck have different odds with 3 different pay tables. Mix and match whatever pay table is needed to hit your hold goal.

Statistical Analysis [6 Deck]
• The Main Bet has a 41.64% win rate

o 2.60% house advantage per original bet
o 1.98% house advantage per total bet (with double down)

• The 3 Card Player Poker Bonus has a 29.34% win rate
o 4.60% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 5.08% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 6.09% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

• The Match’em Bonus has a 28.10% win rate
o 5.45% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 6.25% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 7.34% house advantage (Pay Table 3)


Statistical Analysis [8 Deck]
• The Main Bet has a 41.64% win rate

o 2.66% house advantage per original bet
o 2.03% house advantage per total bet (with double down)

• The 3 Card Player Poker Bonus has a 29.34% win rate
o 3.33% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 3.85% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 4.89% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

• The Match’em Bonus has a 28.10% win rate
o 3.12% house advantage (Pay Table 1)
o 3.99% house advantage (Pay Table 2)
o 4.97% house advantage (Pay Table 3)

There also is a hidden $1 Million Bonus
6 Deck has a house advantage of 10.65%
8 Deck has a house advantage of 6.82%

I always end the meeting with "We are close to completing our 3rd year in Waterloo which is unheard of in our industry for most games except the top few. Our question is not whether the other casinos surrounding Waterloo want our game, the question is why don't you have it already?"


See above
Don't teach an alligator how to swim.

  • Jump to: