mrsuit31
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June 26th, 2013 at 7:55:18 AM permalink
Hey all,

For all of those I had told good news was on the way... Money$uit 31 is set to go live at the Grey Eagle Casino in Calgary, Alberta, Canada!

Otherwise if anyone is interested in reading up on the new version of the game Match 31 before the new demo is updated on the site, I have updated the website with all of the new literature... The website will be updated with a new demo for Match 31 at some point next month. When the new demo is uploaded to the site I will let everyone know so you can all experiment...

I will keep everyone informed on the launch dates at the Grey Eagle as well as any other developments that take place...
.
Nareed
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:06:03 AM permalink
Congratulations!
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Buzzard
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:17:52 AM permalink
Well done, SIR !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
MrCasinoGames
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:26:10 AM permalink
Congratulations mrsuit.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
McDemon
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:36:40 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Hey all,

For all of those I had told good news was on the way... Money$uit 31 is set to go live at the Grey Eagle Casino in Calgary, Alberta, Canada!

Otherwise if anyone is interested in reading up on the new version of the Match 31 before the new demo is updated on the site, I have updated the website with all of the new literature... The website will be updated with a new demo for Match 31 at some point next month. When the new demo is uploaded to the site I will let everyone know so you can all experiment...

I will keep everyone informed on the launch dates at the Grey Eagle as well as any other developments that take place...



First look, not sure what I am doing or the aim of the game. So as a numpty, (new player) it isn't that intuitive. I will have another go, read the rules! and let you know
Controversial sometimes, brutally honest..Always
mrsuit31
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:42:22 AM permalink
Thanks Guys!
.
miplet
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June 26th, 2013 at 8:42:32 AM permalink
:+) Congrats! According to google, it would take me 220 hours to walk there. I better wait until you get an install a little closer to home.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
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June 26th, 2013 at 10:10:18 AM permalink
Congratulations, Mr. Suit31!

It's a fantastic and unique game, and I am glad people are finally starting to realize it. I encourage everyone to give it a few hundred plays with the Free Demo, the Optimal Strategy is quite easy with only a little bit of practice!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
McDemon
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June 26th, 2013 at 10:31:02 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Congratulations, Mr. Suit31!

It's a fantastic and unique game, and I am glad people are finally starting to realize it. I encourage everyone to give it a few hundred plays with the Free Demo, the Optimal Strategy is quite easy with only a little bit of practice!



Not for me this one, good luck with it
Controversial sometimes, brutally honest..Always
Paradigm
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June 26th, 2013 at 12:27:29 PM permalink
MrSuit31 - Excellent news on this trial. Grey Eagle's website says they have 65 tables, this is a significant property and should have a diverse enough clientele to give the game a fair shot at success. All the best!!
mrsuit31
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:39:22 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

:+) Congrats! According to google, it would take me 220 hours to walk there. I better wait until you get an install a little closer to home.



Comon Mip, that isn't that far....

Thanks mission and paradigm!
.
Buzzard
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:40:58 PM permalink
Is this a DEQ placement ? Just asking.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
mrsuit31
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:42:56 PM permalink
Buzz,

No, this is a Money$uit Industries placement...
.
Buzzard
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:49:05 PM permalink
In that case CONGRATULATIONS is an understatement.

I repeat WELL DONE SIR !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Switch
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June 26th, 2013 at 1:49:41 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

In that case CONGRATULATIONS is an understatement.

I repeat WELL DONE SIR !



Seconded. Well done !
Buzzard
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June 26th, 2013 at 2:02:53 PM permalink
LUCK is when preparation meets opportunity. Why is only nice guys like Switch, Mr. Casino games, Dan Lubin, Moneysuit etc.seem to get lucky ? Well explains my failure in part. LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
jon
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June 26th, 2013 at 2:32:33 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

LUCK is when preparation meets opportunity. Why is only nice guys like Switch, Mr. Casino games, Dan Lubin, Moneysuit etc.seem to get lucky ?


I can answer that. I would say getting a game placed (or any invention really) requires a combination of 50% - quality of game, and 50% personal relationships/ability (note how high the latter is). I have worked with all types of people, mostly good people, but a small number dishonest or impersonal. The latter group NEVER succeeds with an invention in the end.
beachbumbabs
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June 26th, 2013 at 4:38:08 PM permalink
Congratulations! I've played 300 hands or so, haven't had a 31 yet, but am right about where I started betting $20/5/1. Down 800 to up 450 (starting BR 1000 on the demo). Anyways, I had some questions on best strategy:

General: Are the 3 bullet points in priority order?

Hand 1: A88o ; is it better to keep the pair of 8's than the A and one of the 8's? Odds better A8, but there is the trips payoff...

Hand 2: 97sFo ; is it better to keep the 16, or the face card and the 9? Seems like it's slightly better odds to keep the 9F, but that's not listed as optimum...

Hand 3: F4$sFo ; seems like you have to discard the 4 to get to 17, but is this always true?

I would also think there would be a definite advantage to sit 3rd base on this and see who plays, who takes a card, and who folds; might be an indication of how many faces/aces are already gone.

Thanks!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
21Revolution
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June 26th, 2013 at 6:34:10 PM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Hey all,

For all of those I had told good news was on the way... Money$uit 31 is set to go live at the Grey Eagle Casino in Calgary, Alberta, Canada!

Otherwise if anyone is interested in reading up on the new version of the game Match 31 before the new demo is updated on the site, I have updated the website with all of the new literature... The website will be updated with a new demo for Match 31 at some point next month. When the new demo is uploaded to the site I will let everyone know so you can all experiment...

I will keep everyone informed on the launch dates at the Grey Eagle as well as any other developments that take place...



Was looking to try this out, is the site temporarily down? I had heard this game was in the works- glad to see it is on its way. Nice job!
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 5:47:19 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs




Hand 1: A88o ; is it better to keep the pair of 8's than the A and one of the 8's? Odds better A8, but there is the trips payoff...



I'm gathering that o is for, "Off," and you're saying that all of your cards are off of the $suit, right?

In this case, you would know three of the cards, so let's look at what can happen with the other card:

Keeping A-8

In this case, the worst you can do with 19 is win on the Play Bet and win Even Money on the Ante Bet. There are thirty-eight remaining off-suit cards, so they do nothing for you. Additionally, a deuce of the same suit also fails to improve your hand, so there are thirty-nine (out of 49) cards that will not improve your hand.

If you have bet 1 unit, this result will give you two units to the good, so, the value of not improving is:

39/49 * 2 = 1.5918367346938775

There are 10/49 Cards that do better your hand, inclusive to (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, J, Q, K) of the same suit. The ten-value cards, and the nine improve your score to 28-29, which gives you a 5:1 payoff on the Play Bet, and you still get EM on the Ante, for a win of six units:

5/49 * 6 = 0.6122448979591837

The 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 all put you in that 22-27 range, so that is a payoff of 2 to 1 on Play, and EM on Ante, so positive 3 units:

5/49 * 3 = 0.30612244897959184

The sum of these is an expected profit of: 0.30612244897959184 + 0.6122448979591837 + 1.5918367346938775 = 2.510204081632653

Keeping 8-8

The first thing you'll realize is that keeping 8-8 is no longer a guaranteed win, so that will tell you something...usually.

The best case scenario is hitting Trips, which pays 10 : 1 and you get EM on Ante, so that is positive eleven units. It has a 2/49 chance of happening:

2/49 * 11 = 0.44897959183673463

The second best case scenario is a Ten/Ace to give you 18-19 for a positive two units. There are 9/49 ways this can happen, because you threw one Ace away.

9/49 * 2 = 0.3673469387755102

Finally, there are two nines that would give you Seventeen, which is a Push, so the expected profit of that is nothing.

There are 36/49 ways to lose two units, so that is:

36/49 * -2 = -1.469387755102041

The overall expected LOSS is 0.44897959183673463 + 0.3673469387755102 -1.469387755102041 = -0.6530612244897961

Decision

Keeping the 8's would only happen if there were not any other winning result you could keep, if there were, you would definitely take a guaranteed win or push. The only reason you keep 8's in the first place is because the Expected Value is better than the guaranteed loss of 1 unit that folding would give.

More often than not, 73.5% of the time, to be precise, you lose keeping the 8's.

Quote:

Hand 2: 97sFo ; is it better to keep the 16, or the face card and the 9? Seems like it's slightly better odds to keep the 9F, but that's not listed as optimum...

Hand 3: F4$sFo ; seems like you have to discard the 4 to get to 17, but is this always true?

I would also think there would be a definite advantage to sit 3rd base on this and see who plays, who takes a card, and who folds; might be an indication of how many faces/aces are already gone.

Thanks!



With all due respect, I don't understand your abbreviations for the last two hands, I would be happy to analyze them for you if you spell out what the hands are. It could be just because it is morning and they are fully understandable, I'm sorry.

I don't know if sharing information is tolerated, that'd be a question for Mr. Suit31. I imagine the knowledge would give you an advantage in some cases, but the game (I imagine) is designed such that you would not have an overall advantage.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
DJTeddyBear
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June 27th, 2013 at 5:52:19 AM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

... this is a Money$uit Industries placement...

Holy crap and Mazel Tov!

Is this a regular install or just a field trial?

Impressive either way but curious...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
mrsuit31
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June 27th, 2013 at 8:38:24 AM permalink
Thanks guys!

The website was down yesterday as there was an issue with the hosting site...(the timing of these issues are always perfect!) the site is back up and running if you want to give the demo a try again...

You can share the optimal strategy regarding the game, I have no problem with this. One of the best parts of the game is the complex decisions regarding the discard... Players if they choose can try and analyze every situation an decide what the best play is or just try and get lucky...
.
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 11:16:06 AM permalink
In determining an Optimal Strategy for this game, the first thing one should do is to see if there are any deviations from Basic Strategy, and if so, what they are. The best way to do that is to look at the Expected Value of all of your fringe hands and see if you would be better off doing something else.

I would not be surprised to find that Basic Strategy is always, or almost always, correct on an initial hand. With respect to Optimal Strategy, the majority of your decisions will be on whether to throw away a winning hand in the hopes of a different winning hand, or making a choice between two choices that would both be appropriate pursuant to Basic Strategy.

Pair of Sevens, No MS

11 * 2/49 = 0.44897959183673463

2 * 2/49 = 0.08163265306122448

37/49 * -2 = -1.510204081632653

0.44897959183673463 + 0.08163265306122448 - 1.510204081632653 = -0.9795918367346937

You can see that, in the worst case scenario, holding a Pair of Sevens has a better expected value than folding them.

Total Fifteen, No MS

In this scenario, let's say that you have A-4 for your total of fifteen:

The next card being 3, 5, 6 all result in positive two units.

3/49 * 2 = 0.12244897959183673

The next card being 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K all result in positive three units.

7/49 * 3 = 0.42857142857142854

There are 38 ways to lose two units:

38/49 * -2 = -1.5510204081632652

0.42857142857142854 + 0.12244897959183673 -1.5510204081632652 = -1

So, we see that keeping fifteen with no MS is a completely neutral play in this case.

We will see that any 10-5 is the exact same thing, the four simply replaces the five in the event of winning positive two units, and the Ace replaces any ten in the event of winning positive three units.

However, you will see that keeping 8-7, no MS, is worse than folding because the 7 + 8 can no longer be used for a potential three unit win.

The next card being 3, 4, 5, 6 results in positive two units:

4/49 * 2 = 0.16326530612244897

The next card being 9, 10, J, Q, K, A results in positive three units:

6/49 * 3 = 0.36734693877551017

There are thirty-eight results that lose:

38/49 * -2 = -1.5510204081632652

0.16326530612244897 + 0.36734693877551017 -1.5510204081632652 = -1.0204081632653061

How about 9-6?

The next card being 3, 4, 5 results in a profit of 2 units:

3/49 * 2 = 0.12244897959183673

The next card being 7, 8, 10, J, Q, K, A results in a profit of 3 units:

7/49 * 3 = 0.42857142857142854

38/49 * -2 = -1.5510204081632652

0.12244897959183673 + 0.42857142857142854 -1.5510204081632652 = -0.9999999999999999

Money$uit 8-7 for 15

What if the 8-7 is in the Money$uit, are you still better off to fold?

If the next card is 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, then the result is a two unit profit.

5/49 * 2 = 0.20408163265306123

If the next card is 9, 10, J, Q, K, A, the result is a three unit profit.

6/49 * 3 = 0.36734693877551017

There are thirty-eight results that lose:

38/49 * -2 = -1.5510204081632652

0.36734693877551017 + 0.20408163265306123 -1.5510204081632652 = -0.9795918367346938

Optimal Strategy on Total of Fifteen

We now see that the Optimal Strategy for a total of fifteen is to play, unless the fifteen is NOT in the Money$uit AND consists of 8-7. However, any other Fifteen that is not in the Money$uit has an expectation of -1, which is the same expectation folding has.

In my opinion, I would rather fold in the scenario of a Fifteen not in the Money$uit because:

1.) It is easier to remember than folding on 8-7

and

2.) You get reduced Variance for the same result, you always lose one unit on the fold.

I would maintain that Basic Strategy, as relates to a total of Fifteen should be to play any total of Sixteen or higher, but play Fifteen or higher if it is in the Money$uit.

1.) I will look more closely at the A-9 Strategy point later, the worst case scenario being an A-9 in which neither is in the Money$uit.

2.) I might also provide a few examples of cases in which one decision is non-intuitively better than the other when choosing between two choices that do not involve folding.

3.) Should the player ever keep a total of Fourteen if it is in the Money$uit? I doubt it, but we'll find out!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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June 27th, 2013 at 11:42:49 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Congratulations! I've played 300 hands or so, haven't had a 31 yet, but am right about where I started betting $20/5/1. Down 800 to up 450 (starting BR 1000 on the demo). Anyways, I had some questions on best strategy:

General: Are the 3 bullet points in priority order?

Hand 1: A88o ; is it better to keep the pair of 8's than the A and one of the 8's? Odds better A8, but there is the trips payoff...

Hand 2: 97sFo ; is it better to keep the 16, or the face card and the 9? Seems like it's slightly better odds to keep the 9F, but that's not listed as optimum...

Hand 3: F4$sFo ; seems like you have to discard the 4 to get to 17, but is this always true?

I would also think there would be a definite advantage to sit 3rd base on this and see who plays, who takes a card, and who folds; might be an indication of how many faces/aces are already gone.

Thanks!



M146,

thanks very much for trying to analyse my exception hands. I thought I was using standard abbreviations for this site, but I must've misused them if it wasn't clear to you (ceding to your greater knowledge).

A88o was meant to designate 3 different suits, for a greatest value of 11 before the draw. The optimum strategy listed says to keep the paired 8's, but your chances of getting a winning hand would be greater holding the A and one of the 8's because there are more value cards that will get you to at least a push. However, maybe the possibility of getting trips at odds somehow outweighs this play to simply not lose. That's why I wondered if it was an exception hand. If I had an ace that matched either 8, I would definitely keep that hand as a sure winner and try to improve it over the small chance of getting trips. I think possibly any card larger value than 7, with a hand of paired 7's or better, might be a better hold (break up the pair), so I used the A88 holding as an example to make it as evident as possible.

97sFo meant a 9-7 suited (just below a push hand) with an offsuit face; there are more push or better draws possible with the 9 and the face than with 9-7 suited (12 versus 11) so I'm wondering why you would hold the 16 but not the 9 and face in this hand.

Hand 3, i think optimum strategy says you do throw away the second small suited card and keep the 2 non-suited face cards, so I no longer have a question about that.

My general question was, is the optiimal strategy in priority order, like the wizard's format, where if you had, say, a face-5 suited (for 15) and an offsuit face, both of which are listed, the preference would be the 2 faces because they're listed as the first bullet, and the 15 play is further down the list.

Thanks for the help!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 12:24:54 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

M146,

thanks very much for trying to analyse my exception hands. I thought I was using standard abbreviations for this site, but I must've misused them if it wasn't clear to you (ceding to your greater knowledge).



You're welcome, and no, it was my fault. I understand what was meant by your abbreviations, now.

By the way, you should see my most recent post for an interesting exception to Basic Strategy!

Quote:

A88o was meant to designate 3 different suits, for a greatest value of 11 before the draw. The optimum strategy listed says to keep the paired 8's, but your chances of getting a winning hand would be greater holding the A and one of the 8's because there are more value cards that will get you to at least a push. However, maybe the possibility of getting trips at odds somehow outweighs this play to simply not lose. That's why I wondered if it was an exception hand. If I had an ace that matched either 8, I would definitely keep that hand as a sure winner and try to improve it over the small chance of getting trips. I think possibly any card larger value than 7, with a hand of paired 7's or better, might be a better hold (break up the pair), so I used the A88 holding as an example to make it as evident as possible.



Fortunately, we have already went over keeping the Eights:

The first thing you'll realize is that keeping 8-8 is no longer a guaranteed win, so that will tell you something...usually.

The best case scenario is hitting Trips, which pays 10 : 1 and you get EM on Ante, so that is positive eleven units. It has a 2/49 chance of happening:

2/49 * 11 = 0.44897959183673463

The second best case scenario is a Ten/Ace to give you 18-19 for a positive two units. There are 10/49 ways this can happen.

10/49 * 2 = 0.40816326530612246

Finally, there are two nines that would give you Seventeen, which is a Push, so the expected profit of that is nothing.

There are 35/49 ways to lose two units, so that is:

35/49 * -2 = -1.4285714285714286

The overall expected LOSS is 0.44897959183673463 + 0.40816326530612246 -1.4285714285714286 = -0.5714285714285715

Keeping Ao-8o

With the Ace, you could draw 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q or K for a profit of two units, with the Eight, you could draw 10, J, Q, K or A for same.

12/49 * 2 = 0.4897959183673469

With both cards, (Six for Ace and Nine for Eight) the Expected Value is zero, because it is a Push.

You will lose in 35/49 situations, so:

35/49 * -2 = -1.4285714285714286

0.4897959183673469 -1.4285714285714286 = -0.9387755102040817

Conclusion 1

Keeping the paired Eights is vehemently the better decision, your probability of NOT LOSING by keeping A-8 is exactly the same as keeping the Eights.

Interestingly, it seems that Ao-8o is a hand than an individual would be better to keep than throw away, so that's a deviation from Basic Strategy.

Quote:

97sFo meant a 9-7 suited (just below a push hand) with an offsuit face; there are more push or better draws possible with the 9 and the face than with 9-7 suited (12 versus 11) so I'm wondering why you would hold the 16 but not the 9 and face in this hand.



Okay, so I take this to mean Sixteen in the Money$uit v. keeping a Nine and the Money$uit, and call it a Ten off. I imagine the potential for an Ace and 5:1 paying Money$uit 27 has something to do with it, so let's find out:

I should also remind you that no winning Money$uit hand (17 or better) can result in a Push.

Money$uit 16

1/49 * 6 = 0.12244897959183673

Good, now 6, 8, 10, J, Q, and K are all good for your 22-27 three units profit:

6/49 * 3 = 0.36734693877551017

Finally, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are all good for your 18-22 range and two unit profit:

4/49 * 2 = 0.16326530612244897

As you mentioned, 38 cards would lose two units, so:

38/49 * -2 = -1.5510204081632652

0.36734693877551017 + 0.16326530612244897 + 0.12244897959183673 -1.5510204081632652 = -0.8979591836734695

MS 9 and 10o

Okay, the off Ten wins two units on J, Q, K, A, 9, 8 and the M$ 9 wins two units on 8, 10, J, Q, K, A

12/49 * 2 = 0.4897959183673469

The off-ten pushes on the off-Seven, so that's irrelevant, and the remaining 36 cards all lose:

36/49 * -2 = -1.469387755102041

0.4897959183673469 -1.469387755102041 = -0.979591836734694

Conclusion 2

The Sixteen in the Money$uit is somewhat better than keeping the To-M$9, but interestingly, you'd be better to keep an Off-Ten with a Money$uit 9 than to fold.

Quote:


My general question was, is the optiimal strategy in priority order, like the wizard's format, where if you had, say, a face-5 suited (for 15) and an offsuit face, both of which are listed, the preference would be the 2 faces because they're listed as the first bullet, and the 15 play is further down the list.

Thanks for the help!



With all due respect to Mr. $uit31, from what I am discovering, I think that the Basic Strategy sucks anyway. There are simply going to be too many exceptions to it that are easy to remember. For instance, play anything that is a Sixteen or better of the same suit, except play a total of Fifteen or better in the Money$uit, that's not hard.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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June 27th, 2013 at 12:36:58 PM permalink
M146.

Great response, thanks! A side benefit (really the main benefit) I'm getting from all this is with you basing this on my examples, I'm starting to get how the math is derived and basic formulae. Really cool to learn new things!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 12:44:52 PM permalink
BeachBumBabs,

I would also like to offer you a piece of advice, in general, for dealing with Basic Strategy of games.

You focus much of your energy on probabilities of winning and losing, and there are quite a few games out there in which such probabilities are irrelevant to your Expected Value. Blackjack has many examples of this, regarding the Expected Value of Doubling, that should give you a clear picture of what I am saying.

For instance, Doubling a Hard-10 against a Dealer showing eight gives you a phenomenal Expected Value, however, it does not maximize your probability of winning. If you wanted to maximize your probability of winning, then you would simply hit, and then you would hit again if your total was 16 or less, and you would generally continue to hit until your total was Seventeen or better.

In effect, you lose more often by Doubling, but not so much more often that the Doubling doesn't compensate for the extra losses (and then some) when you do win.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 12:46:41 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

M146.

Great response, thanks! A side benefit (really the main benefit) I'm getting from all this is with you basing this on my examples, I'm starting to get how the math is derived and basic formulae. Really cool to learn new things!



You're welcome, it's fun for me, too, which is why I am eventually going to go ahead and figure out the Optimal Strategy for Money$uit 31. It may take some time, though, there has recently been an expression of interest in a totally unrelated project that I did not finish, so I also have to finish that.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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June 27th, 2013 at 1:03:06 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

BeachBumBabs,

I would also like to offer you a piece of advice, in general, for dealing with Basic Strategy of games.

You focus much of your energy on probabilities of winning and losing, and there are quite a few games out there in which such probabilities are irrelevant to your Expected Value. Blackjack has many examples of this, regarding the Expected Value of Doubling, that should give you a clear picture of what I am saying.

For instance, Doubling a Hard-10 against a Dealer showing eight gives you a phenomenal Expected Value, however, it does not maximize your probability of winning. If you wanted to maximize your probability of winning, then you would simply hit, and then you would hit again if your total was 16 or less, and you would generally continue to hit until your total was Seventeen or better.

In effect, you lose more often by Doubling, but not so much more often that the Doubling doesn't compensate for the extra losses (and then some) when you do win.



Thank you for that clarification. I had a general understanding of this before, am learning a more precise vocabulary here, and this is an excellent example of the difference. Feeding this back, you're referring to the 5 in 13 chance of getting a card that, had you not doubled down, you would have hit. But the opportunity to double your bet on a positive expectation (8 in 13 non-hit cards plus the possibility the dealer will have to take another card(s)) outweighs the hit option value of only working with your original bet.

This brings up a somewhat unrelated question; can you routinely double for less, or is it only allowed when you're playing what you have on the table or your person (like in a tournament), or is it something a casino makes a policy about at their discretion? If it's routine, are there strategies where you would want to hedge your double by only betting, say, 1/2 your original wager?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 1:16:31 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Thank you for that clarification. I had a general understanding of this before, am learning a more precise vocabulary here, and this is an excellent example of the difference. Feeding this back, you're referring to the 5 in 13 chance of getting a card that, had you not doubled down, you would have hit. But the opportunity to double your bet on a positive expectation (8 in 13 non-hit cards plus the possibility the dealer will have to take another card(s)) outweighs the hit option value of only working with your original bet.



You're welcome!

That's exactly right, for example, if you Double-Down on a ten and draw a Deuce, now all the dealer has to do is have a total of 17-21 in order to beat you. The only way your 12 can win is against a dealer bust, however, had you hit, you could still hit again to improve your 12.

Quote:

This brings up a somewhat unrelated question; can you routinely double for less, or is it only allowed when you're playing what you have on the table or your person (like in a tournament), or is it something a casino makes a policy about at their discretion? If it's routine, are there strategies where you would want to hedge your double by only betting, say, 1/2 your original wager?



I believe it is at the discretion of the House, I've only seen someone attempt to double for less on a handful of occasions, (I've certainly not done it) and it has always been allowed. I may have read on here once about a House that would not allow that, and I'm not sure why not, the person doubling for less is doing the House a favor!

Thou shalt not hedge thy bets!

In any situation in which a double is dictated by Basic Strategy or Optimal Strategy, it is dictated because the amount of money being bet on the double-down is exceeded by the expected return of the bet. In other words, you should always double down for as much as possible, which is the original amount bet. If you do not double for the full amount, then the expected value of your overall play compared to the total amount bet is worse.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
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June 27th, 2013 at 1:21:30 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You're welcome, it's fun for me, too, which is why I am eventually going to go ahead and figure out the Optimal Strategy for Money$uit 31. It may take some time, though, there has recently been an expression of interest in a totally unrelated project that I did not finish, so I also have to finish that.


I could modify my original program to print a chart. Hopefully I put in enough comments that it won't take long. Heading to bed now. I might have time when I get up.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
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June 27th, 2013 at 1:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

I could modify my original program to print a chart. Hopefully I put in enough comments that it won't take long. Heading to bed now. I might have time when I get up.



Miplet,

That would be really cool, please let me know if you can do it easily. If not, then I still intend to determine the Optimal Strategy. For such a simple game, there are simply too many easy-to-remember (and don't take much space on paper) deviations from BS for my liking.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
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June 29th, 2013 at 8:11:47 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Miplet,

That would be really cool, please let me know if you can do it easily. If not, then I still intend to determine the Optimal Strategy. For such a simple game, there are simply too many easy-to-remember (and don't take much space on paper) deviations from BS for my liking.


Ok, I'm partway done:
3 suited cards:
Fold 16 or less.
Only draw if you won't drop in payout if you draw a blank.

2 suited cards:
suited 17 or more: discard non-suited.
Highest suited card 6 or less: fold.
Highest suited card 7: Play a pair of 7's; play 7A if the 7 is the MoneySuit; fold all others.
Highest suited card 8: Play a pair of 7's and 8's; play 8A; play 78 if it is the MoneySuit; play 8T if either is the MoneySuit; fold all others.
-----
That's it for now.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
miplet
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June 30th, 2013 at 8:00:01 PM permalink
To hold every one over until I can do a full strategy, you can check the EV of your hand at http://miplet.net/moneysuit/test.php?c1=33&c2=7&c3=25 Spades are he moneysuit. The card you thow away is listed at top and might not be the order you put them in.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
beachbumbabs
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June 30th, 2013 at 8:21:09 PM permalink
miplet;

Thanks for working on this. I have been seeing some of these patterns emerging.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Mission146
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July 1st, 2013 at 7:24:12 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

To hold every one over until I can do a full strategy, you can check the EV of your hand at http://miplet.net/moneysuit/test.php?c1=33&c2=7&c3=25 Spades are he moneysuit. The card you thow away is listed at top and might not be the order you put them in.



You are officially the man!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
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July 2nd, 2013 at 12:21:44 AM permalink
I like charts, so here are 2.
The first one is if you start with 3 cards of the same suit. Lowest card on top. F=Fold, N=No draw, L=discard Lowest card, if 2 letters use the 1st if it is the MoneySuit, otherwise use the 2nd.

And the second one is if you have 2 suited cards and an unsuited one. Unsuited on top, F=Fold, L=discard Lowest suited card, U discard Unsuited card, H=discard Highest suited card, E= folding and discard unsuited card are the same EV, C=Choose between discard lowest suited card and discard unsuited card, if 3 letters: use the first if the suited cards is the MoneySuit, use the 2nd if the unsuited is the MoneySuit, use the 3rd if no MoneySuit.

Chart for 3 different suits coming soon.
Edit: E had a braino. It's fixed now.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
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July 2nd, 2013 at 5:47:54 AM permalink
Let me know if you are ever around Ohio, I owe you a cold beer, or ten.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mrsuit31
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July 2nd, 2013 at 12:16:08 PM permalink
Thank you for this Miplet.
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Paradigm
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July 2nd, 2013 at 4:59:29 PM permalink
Mips is the bomb!! I keep telling him to start pursuing this gaming math thing as a side business. He is definitely a guy to go to when trying to figure out how to tweak a game before obtaining a full fledged math report. He has helped me out in this area before.
miplet
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July 2nd, 2013 at 9:01:52 PM permalink
Three cards all different suits:
P - keep Pair
N - No draw
F - Fold
L - discard Lowest card
M - keep Ace discard non Moneysuit
I - discard any non moneysuit
Q - fold unless moneymuit more than 6, discard lowest non moneysuit

Basically:
Keep 3 of a kind
draw pair of 7's or better
A,10: keep moneysuit 10 if there is a choice
A, 9 , 8: Keep 8 if moneysuit otherwise keep 9.
A, 8 or 9: play
A, 7: only play if 7 is moneysuit.
A, 6 or less: fold
10,10:keep moneysuit 10 if there is a choice
10,9,8 only play if 8 or 9 if it is moneysuit
Fold all others.

Any questions, comments, suggestions, corrections? Colors and letters can easily be changed.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
mrsuit31
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September 10th, 2013 at 10:47:32 AM permalink
The official launch date for Money$uit 31 at the Grey Eagle Casino in Calgary Alberta has been designated for Friday the 4th of October. We are in the process of setting up promotional some promotions in which i will keep everyone informed with when they are set in stone...

Also for all of those that have not seen the other thread, The Match 31 demo has been posted to the website. Please give it a shot and let me know your thoughts!
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Paradigm
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September 10th, 2013 at 10:51:52 AM permalink
Congrats M$uit on a date.....it can take a long time to get a "go live date" even after a property has said "yes" to a trial. Are you making travel plans for Alberta.....you have to figure out at least a weekend trip to Calgary to watch your baby go live. If you can't go, get someone to be there for you and give you some eyes on the ground that are loyal to you. All the best come 10/4!
mrsuit31
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September 10th, 2013 at 11:02:34 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Congrats M$uit on a date.....it can take a long time to get a "go live date" even after a property has said "yes" to a trial. Are you making travel plans for Alberta.....you have to figure out at least a weekend trip to Calgary to watch your baby go live. If you can't go, get someone to be there for you and give you some eyes on the ground that are loyal to you. All the best come 10/4!



Yes my trip is booked... I will be making it a training/launch trip. I will be there from Oct 2nd thru the 7th.
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Paradigm
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September 10th, 2013 at 11:17:11 AM permalink
Excellent....you were there at Augustine for MoneySuit 31 initial trial as I recall....nothing better than seeing you baby debut to the world.....have a great trip and report back on player feedback, etc.
Buzzard
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September 10th, 2013 at 11:43:43 AM permalink
Hope the players are as impressed as I was when I saw your game live !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
MrCasinoGames
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September 11th, 2013 at 1:29:08 AM permalink
Congrats mrsuit31, Good luck with the game.
Stephen Au-Yeung (Legend of New Table Games®) NewTableGames.com
mrsuit31
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September 11th, 2013 at 5:57:18 AM permalink
Quote: MrCasinoGames

Congrats mrsuit31, Good luck with the game.



Thanks Guys!
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Paradigm
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September 30th, 2013 at 8:09:02 PM permalink
Quote: mrsuit31

Yes my trip is booked... I will be making it a training/launch trip. I will be there from Oct 2nd thru the 7th.


Good luck this week MrSuit31....I'll be thinking good thoughts for you with training and the launch on Friday. Hope everything is still on track and keep us updated on how it goes the first weekend.
Buzzard
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September 30th, 2013 at 8:12:44 PM permalink
Let us know what happens, EH ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
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