Bovada Pick 'em Poker question
So I have played Pick 'em poker (at optimum strategy) at Bovada for a full year now. Not all the time, but enough that i have played a little over 100,000 hands.
Here's what's bugging me. I HAVE NEVER MADE A STRAIGHT FLUSH. Now I know they're hard to get obviously, but considering all the draws you get to one during a years play, it really seems like the game is set up so you cant get one (or a Royal). Now under optimum play, you should get one every 30,000 hands or so, so here is the question.
How odd is it to have NEVER made a straight flush playing this game in a whole calander year with around 110,000 hands played?
I have also kept track of quads, and they are dealt below expectation as well, so I am really wondering if this game is on the level.
I keep playing from time to time cause i'd like to hit at least 1 straight flush, just to finally hit one, but I'm starting to feel like a sap, since they never hit.
The average number of Straight Flushes you will get in a 110,000-hand session of Pick 'em is 2.86, and the average number of Royal Flushes is 0.31.
Assuming your figures are correct and that you played every hand perfectly, the probability of not getting a Straight Flush or Royal Flush in 110,000 hands is 0.041857, which is slightly better than 1 in 24.
Quote: shakhtarAfter black friday, when stars left the US, i joined Bovada about one year ago to play poker. They run casino promos from time to time, and I read the wizards endorsement of the Pick 'em poker game, and saw that with optimum strategy, there is a 99.95% payback to the player.
So I have played Pick 'em poker (at optimum strategy) at Bovada for a full year now. Not all the time, but enough that i have played a little over 100,000 hands.
Here's what's bugging me. I HAVE NEVER MADE A STRAIGHT FLUSH. Now I know they're hard to get obviously, but considering all the draws you get to one during a years play, it really seems like the game is set up so you cant get one (or a Royal). Now under optimum play, you should get one every 30,000 hands or so, so here is the question.
How odd is it to have NEVER made a straight flush playing this game in a whole calander year with around 110,000 hands played?
I have also kept track of quads, and they are dealt below expectation as well, so I am really wondering if this game is on the level.
I keep playing from time to time cause i'd like to hit at least 1 straight flush, just to finally hit one, but I'm starting to feel like a sap, since they never hit.
Well I suppose to be fair I must update this past quandary. I finally got a straight flush in Bovada pick 'em poker, and in an ironic twist, i got 2 of them within an hour. Had been running horrible in this game for while, so I was just screwing around with the cheap 5 cent machine (.25 cent per spin with 5 coin bet). Started as a typical ice cold session, blowing 500 coins fast, and then another 300 of my next 500 coin set when I suddenly got hotter than a pistol with 2 straight flushes and 6 quads in the rest of the night. So while its somewhat disappointing to have my best ever session (point wise) at the cheapest machine (i usually play .25 or .50), it was fun to finally break the straight flush collar with 2 in an hour.
I have!
Quote: JBA Straight Flush in Pick 'em hits about as often as a Royal Flush in regular video poker (and a Royal Flush in Pick 'em, forget about it).
The average number of Straight Flushes you will get in a 110,000-hand session of Pick 'em is 2.86, and the average number of Royal Flushes is 0.31.
Assuming your figures are correct and that you played every hand perfectly, the probability of not getting a Straight Flush or Royal Flush in 110,000 hands is 0.041857, which is slightly better than 1 in 24.
Since i revisited this thread, i became a little skeptical of your .31 royal flushes out of 110,000 hands since that would be 1 royal flush out of 354,838 hands apx.. Wouldn't it actually be 1 out of 162,435 hands for a Royal? I'll put forth my math and you can tell me where I'm wrong.
In pick'em poker, you are dealt 4 cards to start. Obviously, this is 52x51x50x49 divided by 24 since sequence is not important. That would give us 270,725 possible 4 card possibilities. To make a royal, we need 3 cards A thru 10 of the same suit, and the 4rth card must not be in the royal possibilities or else we have a dead draw. That would mean AKQ,AKJ,AK10,AQJ,AQ10,AJ10,KQJ,KQ10,KJ10 and QJ10 and each one of those will be multiplied by 47 (since the 2 others needed must be taken away from the dealt 4 for us to be live). That would be 470 multiplied by 4 different suits which would give us 1880 live royal deals out of a possible 270,725. This means we should get a live royal draw 1 out of every 144 hands. Each time we draw to the royal, we are drawing 2 cards of the remaining 48 which is 1128 combinations, and only 1 of the 1128 will make the royal. So if we have 1/144 x 1/1128, aren't we 1/162,435 to make a royal flush at pick'em poker? (I realize 1880 into 270,725 is 144.0027, so thats why its 162,435 instead of 162,432)
I'm sure your math skills are light years ahead of mine. Am I wrong, or am I correct ? If I'm wrong, where did I err?
And as long as we're on this topic, the odds page on wizard of odds lists 1,832,266,800 combinations for pick em poker. How is that # arrived at? Isn't the correct # 305,377,800 ? Wouldn't it be 270,725 x1128 as actual combinations?
The first two cards dealt must be from te royal:
C(4,1)*C(5,2)/C(52,2)
Of the next two cards, one must be from the royal, but not the other:
C(3,1)*C(47,1)/C(50,2)
The last two cards must finish the royal:
C(2,2)/C(48,2)
Multiply these to get the probability:
4*10/1326 * 3*47/1225 * 1/1128 = 1/324870
The problem with your math was that you allowed the bad card in the first four to be in any position, but it must be located only in the second set of cards.
The reason for the smaller probability than what CrystalMath posted is because a pair of 10's or better beats 3 to a royal in some situations.
The 1,832,266,800 figure is the product of:
combin(52,2) for the left two deal cards = 1326
combin(50,2) for the right two deal cards = 1225
combin(48,2) for the two draw cards = 1128
Would I be close in this assumption? - If a player plays 825 hands per hour, he should make a Royal apx.once every 426 hours. And at the rate of 1 every 426 hours, he is close to 50% chance of making a Royal after 300 hours of play at that rate?
Quote: shakhtarWould I be close in this assumption? - If a player plays 825 hands per hour, he should make a Royal apx.once every 426 hours. And at the rate of 1 every 426 hours, he is close to 50% chance of making a Royal after 300 hours of play at that rate?
Yes, I come up with a 50.5% chance of hitting 1 or more Royals in 300 * 825 = 247,500 hands.
