VP Promo Bankroll RoR question

I asked a question about VP cycles a while back that did not go that well. I'm playing a promotion that has a "slight" advantage. We (Wife&I) are playing a Job (35/8/5) 99.66% $25 5 coin with a cash back bonus of $.625 per push vs. perfect play loss of $.425 per push. We are playing around 400-500 hands per hour due to the amount of W2G's made and the cash into the machine takes a while. So it looks to be $100 per hour +EV.

The reason I wanted to know about cycles in a row was to establish my required BR for this play. I'm @ $1,600,000 which I thought was fine, and according to Bob Dancer 800k is fine for this play.

So I wanted to know how long we could go w/o a royal? How long have others gone?

There are also many other perks to this promotion that add value, but they are hard to quantify. Needless to say the comps will be HUGE!

Your thoughts? Thanks again in advance.

On the Las Vegas Advisor forum they've been tearing Bob Dancer apart for what seems to be out of control reaction to things recently, so I wouldn't try to emulate what that guy says to do or does. He paid something like $100k for a $50,000 car in a casino promotion, now he writes about how he's dissatisfied with his current wife and how being a gambling dancer is a good way to pick up other women. It's totally stupid and seems to be his senior years taking over.

Oh boy, seems like a threadjack coming. I too have lost a boatload on different promotion; however, results are not what determines EV.

How many hours do you intend to play? I can run a quick "random walk" analysis later for a time span (X hours), and record how many Royals occur in each session to give you an idea of possible results.

Or go the other way and have the sessions play until first Royal.

Quote: Lottoballs

Oh boy, seems like a threadjack coming. I too have lost a boatload on different promotion; however, results are not what determines EV.

While I don't understand that reasoning, the original post is even more perplexing. I play only quarters and understand everything about what I'm doing. This poster says they're playing the TWENTY FIVE DOLLAR MACHINE yet they are asking questions about what to expect? I doubt it.

Quote: JL2

While I don't understand that reasoning, the original post is even more perplexing. I play only quarters and understand everything about what I'm doing. This poster says they're playing the TWENTY FIVE DOLLAR MACHINE yet they are asking questions about what to expect? I doubt it.

While I'm not hear to brag or boast I do understand what I'm talking about. I'm still asking what is the Bankroll requirement and RoR for that game.

Weather you believe we are playing $125 a hand or not, is up to you. FYI the promotion is not worth my time @ .25 or $1 or $2 etc.

Thanks again in advance.

Quote: Lottoballs

While I'm not hear to brag or boast I do understand what I'm talking about. I'm still asking what is the Bankroll requirement and RoR for that game.

Weather you believe we are playing $125 a hand or not, is up to you. FYI the promotion is not worth my time @ .25 or $1 or $2 etc.

Thanks again in advance.

Is this play in Colorado?

Quote: Lottoballs

While I'm not hear to brag or boast I do understand what I'm talking about. I'm still asking what is the Bankroll requirement and RoR for that game.

Weather you believe we are playing $125 a hand or not, is up to you. FYI the promotion is not worth my time @ .25 or $1 or $2 etc.

Thanks again in advance.

My simple point was that risk of ruin calculations and suggestions are available at some of the higher end video poker sites and forums on the net. A seasoned player would know this, which is why I don't recommend you trying it. I don't need to know risk of ruin because I'll never get ruined playing 25c games. But I know where to go if I would like to know it.

I wouldn't go anywhere near this play with an eight-royal bankroll. Risk of ruin is 35%.

With a 1.6M bankroll, assuming perfect play, risk of ruin is about 13%. Still way too high for my taste unless you plan to quit if you drop down below your starting bankroll.

However, that's a bad, bad assumption. Most professional players I know assume a 0.05% or 0.1% error rate for their own play. 0.05% chews up 1/3 of your edge, and skyrockets your risk of ruin to almost 25%. 0.1% chews up most of your edge. If you're still asking questions like "how long could we go without a royal?", you have far, far less experience than these people. Even if you've tested yourself extensively on VP software, it is really unlikely that you have a sub-0.05% error rate in lengthy sessions in an actual casino environment.

A good friend of mine whose records I trust has gone eight cycles without a royal on a play. There's currently a play where I've hit three royals in 11 cycles, which is also a eight-royal shortfall in a short length of time, though less unlikely.

As for "other perks that add value"... they may be hard to quantify, but I strongly suggest that you try to do so.

Good luck.

Quote: fivespot

I wouldn't go anywhere near this play with an eight-royal bankroll. Risk of ruin is 35%.

With a 1.6M bankroll, assuming perfect play, risk of ruin is about 13%. Still way too high for my taste unless you plan to quit if you drop down below your starting bankroll.

However, that's a bad, bad assumption. Most professional players I know assume a 0.05% or 0.1% error rate for their own play. 0.05% chews up 1/3 of your edge, and skyrockets your risk of ruin to almost 25%. 0.1% chews up most of your edge. If you're still asking questions like "how long could we go without a royal?", you have far, far less experience than these people. Even if you've tested yourself extensively on VP software, it is really unlikely that you have a sub-0.05% error rate in lengthy sessions in an actual casino environment.

A good friend of mine whose records I trust has gone eight cycles without a royal on a play. There's currently a play where I've hit three royals in 11 cycles, which is also a eight-royal shortfall in a short length of time, though less unlikely.

As for "other perks that add value"... they may be hard to quantify, but I strongly suggest that you try to do so.

Good luck.

Now that is a solid answer and what I was looking for. I've only ever gone 6 cycles myself, but have seen as many as 10 in person. That is the main reason for this question. Also were you considering the cash back in you RoR? I figured that it would take about 95 hours to play a cycle, and we play about 10 hours each a day comfortably. It would take us 5 days or so with breaks to make a cycle and drop $100k. We could afford to do that 16 times. That would also yield apx. $135,000 in cash back. So with the cash back we should have about 17 cycles.

Quote: Lottoballs

Now that is a solid answer and what I was looking for. I've only ever gone 6 cycles myself, but have seen as many as 10 in person. That is the main reason for this question. Also were you considering the cash back in you RoR? I figured that it would take about 95 hours to play a cycle, and we play about 10 hours each a day comfortably. It would take us 5 days or so with breaks to make a cycle and drop $100k. We could afford to do that 16 times. That would also yield apx. $135,000 in cash back. So with the cash back we should have about 17 cycles.

You've "seen" someone other than you go 10 cycles without a royal? What does that mean, and exactly how is something like that accomplished?

I can play maybe 3 hours on a machine tops, comfortably, and I'm not very old. You and your wife can each do 10, accurately, and comfortably?

There are far better investment opportunities for $1.6 million than what you're planning on risking it on.

I would attack this promo with your bankroll

I make this a $58/hour game if you play 400 hands per hour.

I ran 100 sets, each time you play until you lose $320,000 or hit a Royal. The largest number of hands before hitting a Royal was 135,575 hands, (3.5 cycles to use your parlance). 12 times no Royal was hit. Of the 88 times you hot a Royal, 25 of those you still didn't hit a profit on the credits, and 7 of those 25, the rebate made you back into profit.

It was an average 90 hours for each play through, and on average it was about 36,000 per session (less than one cycle as the longer the play went, the less likely it was to end in a Royal but a bust moment).

I have a full spreadsheet of those 100 sessions if you want it.

Working 40 hour weeks for 50 weeks = $116,000 for the year. 7% return.

I have not worked out a variance on this yet.

Quote: Lottoballs

Also were you considering the cash back in you RoR?

Well, without the cashback, it's a negative game, so RoR would be 100%.

Assuming you are a US citizen or are playing in the US, you also need to consider the effect of taxation. If you win on this play, you're paying taxes on the winnings. (Or, you're incurring costs and risks in evading doing so...) If you lose, you aren't able to take your losses as a deduction, unless you have large outside gambling winnings to deduct it against. This takes a huge chunk out of your EV, and likely destroys it entirely.

For instance, suppose your actual edge (after errors, tips, etc) is 0.1%, and your combined state and federal tax rate is 40%, and you and your wife play 10 royal cycles, so 400k hands or about 1000 hours of play. Your EV is 0.1% of 400k*$125, or $50k. However, your post-tax EV is negative. My approximate calculation (using a Poisson distribution for number of royals, and treating the rest of the game as constant) is -$10885. I suspect a proper calculation using a full CDF would make it even more negative.

The less you play, the worse this effect gets. If you play 5 cycles, your pre-tax EV is +$25000, your post-tax EV is -$15689. If you play 3 cycles, your pre-tax EV is $15000, your post-tax EV is -$15346.

It's hard to beat Uncle Sam's freeroll with edges this small.

Looking at in another way.

Play sessions of 80,000 hands = 2 cycles (give or take) or until you lose the $320,000 seed for the session. Takes 200 Hours (5 weeks)

Average return is $70/hour. Average session is $13,846 return, with a standard deviation of $161,000. Yes, it seems even after 200 hours the variance will hurt.

Unless I've severely screwed up the sums somewhere. Entirely possible.

What is the effect on IRS withholding rates on slot jackpots ? A friend had a system that had a positive
advantage on trifecta's, but taxes that would be held by the track would eat up his bankroll long before
the race meet was over.

Quote: buzzpaff

What is the effect on IRS withholding rates on slot jackpots ? A friend had a system that had a positive
advantage on trifecta's, but taxes that would be held by the track would eat up his bankroll long before
the race meet was over.

I believe that would depend on the status of the player. If he were like you and I then unless you're very creative the tax forms can cause some trouble. But if he's a schedule C filer then I doubt very much GE owns the secret behind not paying taxes.

Quote: buzzpaff

What is the effect on IRS withholding rates on slot jackpots ? A friend had a system that had a positive
advantage on trifecta's, but taxes that would be held by the track would eat up his bankroll long before
the race meet was over.

I don't play in jurisdictions that withhold taxes from slot jackpots. That said, it's easy to tell how much will be kidnapped by the withholding - take the contribution to EV of hands that induce withholding, multiply by the withholding rate. For instance if you're playing in a state that withholds 3% from jackpots, and you're playing $5 NSUD, the only jackpots are royals and quad deuces, which combine to create about 5.6% of your return. 3% of 5.6% is about 0.17%. So you can expect the state to drop about 0.17% of your coin-in on average.

If you were playing somewhere that withheld federal tax on slot jackpots... you'd better have a gigantic bankroll to deal with all the money they're taking off the table, and you'd better have an awful lot of faith in your ability to get the IRS to cough up the refund they'll owe you at the end of the year.

T his is referred to as If the winner of reportable gambling winnings does not
backup withholding. You should backup withhold at the 31% provide a TIN, you must backup withhold at the rate of 31% on
rate if: any such winnings that are not subject to 28% regular gambling
· The winner does not furnish a correct taxpayer identification withholding. That is, backup withholding applies if the winnings
number (TIN), are at least $600 but not more than $5,000 and are at least 300
· 28% has not been withheld, and times the wager. Figure the 31% backup withholding on the
· The winnings are at least $600 and at least 300 times the amount of the winnings reduced, at the option of the payer, by
wager (or the winnings are at least $1,200 from bingo or slot the amount wagered.
machines or $1,500 from keno or more than $5,000 from a
poker tournament).
Om my 60th birthday I hit a jackpot on a $5 slot. I thought I might not get paid as the machine was flashing 1195
over and error. I was afraid it was an error code. Actually my hand pay was $1195 so that would would be no withholding

Things have gone rather well, thanks for all the help.

Quote: JL2

On the Las Vegas Advisor forum they've been tearing Bob Dancer apart for what seems to be out of control reaction to things recently

What thread?