Fairness
June 4th, 2025 at 12:56:33 PM
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How many hands sample do we need to determine if a game is fair? here are my stats on a game joker poker kings+ and as you can see my main concern is just the kings+ vs nothing its been 34,000 hands but this to me seems like a bit of a discrepancy that is too large here:
Kings or Aces :
Actual Hits ---- 3390
Actual % --- 0.098059
Expected Hits --- 4924.68
Expected % --- 0.142447
Worse than Kings+:
Actual Hits ---- 20871
Actual % ---- 0.603714
Expected Hits---- 19200.39
Expected % ---- 0.555374
5% of kings+ allocated to getting nothing seems like a bit much, or is sample size still too low to determine? all other stats 2 pair and above are close to expected
Kings or Aces :
Actual Hits ---- 3390
Actual % --- 0.098059
Expected Hits --- 4924.68
Expected % --- 0.142447
Worse than Kings+:
Actual Hits ---- 20871
Actual % ---- 0.603714
Expected Hits---- 19200.39
Expected % ---- 0.555374
5% of kings+ allocated to getting nothing seems like a bit much, or is sample size still too low to determine? all other stats 2 pair and above are close to expected
June 4th, 2025 at 1:53:57 PM
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Is that on the deal or after the draw?
If it's after the draw, the strategy you are playing could account for a discrepancy of that size. The strategies for the different versions of Joker Poker are very different, and vary again by the specific paytable.
If it's after the draw, the strategy you are playing could account for a discrepancy of that size. The strategies for the different versions of Joker Poker are very different, and vary again by the specific paytable.
June 4th, 2025 at 2:55:19 PM
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yes, after the draw.... exact game:
Sequential Royal Flush: Joker Poker (Kings)
Sequential Natural Royal Flush 20,000
Natural Royal Flush 4,000
Five of a Kind 750
Wild Royal Flush 400
Straight Flush 250
Four of a Kind 100
Full House 35
Flush 25
Straight 15
Three of a Kind 10
Two Pair 5
Kings or Better 5
All Other 0
strategy used is playing perfectly using this calculator: WIZARD OF ODDS DOT COM/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/calculator/
the numbers used for expected results come from inputting the exact paytable so it should be accurate
Sequential Royal Flush: Joker Poker (Kings)
Sequential Natural Royal Flush 20,000
Natural Royal Flush 4,000
Five of a Kind 750
Wild Royal Flush 400
Straight Flush 250
Four of a Kind 100
Full House 35
Flush 25
Straight 15
Three of a Kind 10
Two Pair 5
Kings or Better 5
All Other 0
strategy used is playing perfectly using this calculator: WIZARD OF ODDS DOT COM/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/calculator/
the numbers used for expected results come from inputting the exact paytable so it should be accurate
June 4th, 2025 at 6:29:14 PM
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Quote: blueman777yes, after the draw.... exact game:
Sequential Royal Flush: Joker Poker (Kings)
Sequential Natural Royal Flush 20,000
Natural Royal Flush 4,000
Five of a Kind 750
Wild Royal Flush 400
Straight Flush 250
Four of a Kind 100
Full House 35
Flush 25
Straight 15
Three of a Kind 10
Two Pair 5
Kings or Better 5
All Other 0
strategy used is playing perfectly using this calculator: WIZARD OF ODDS DOT COM/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/calculator/
the numbers used for expected results come from inputting the exact paytable so it should be accurate
link to original post
OK now that Wizard link is a hand analyzer, not a game analyzer. Nor do I see any way to modify the strategy for a sequential royal on that page.
Where are you getting the data for the expected number of Kings or Better?
June 4th, 2025 at 6:36:33 PM
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for game analysis i used
WIZARD OF ODDS DOT COM /games/video-poker-analyzer/calculator/
cant attach a screen shot here apparently
select sequential, joker kings, edit paytable, then boom shows all expected outcomes
WIZARD OF ODDS DOT COM /games/video-poker-analyzer/calculator/
cant attach a screen shot here apparently
select sequential, joker kings, edit paytable, then boom shows all expected outcomes
June 4th, 2025 at 7:39:37 PM
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OK, I see the same outcomes on that page as you do.
Two more things you have to check before you can start thinking about a game being rigged:
Did you generate a playing strategy, for exactly that paytable?
Is the strategy as generated being implemented perfectly in your model?
Two more things you have to check before you can start thinking about a game being rigged:
Did you generate a playing strategy, for exactly that paytable?
Is the strategy as generated being implemented perfectly in your model?
June 4th, 2025 at 7:45:14 PM
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yeah the strategy is use the calculator every single hand (online) so every hand is played perfectly yes. and yes i generated the correct strategy. the game is 20000/4000/750/400/250/100/35/25/15/10/5/5/0
i track every hand and every pay so thats where i get my exact info
i track every hand and every pay so thats where i get my exact info
June 4th, 2025 at 7:45:23 PM
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(excerpted!)
Quote: blueman777
cant attach a screen shot here apparently
link to original post
It's not personal.
There are inviolable rules on the forum that preclude probationary (new) members from doing certain (potentially) spammy things.
Once you're no longer new, images and links start working.
Welcome to the forum.
May the cards fall in your favor.
June 4th, 2025 at 8:16:24 PM
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Quote: blueman777yeah the strategy is use the calculator every single hand (online) so every hand is played perfectly yes. and yes i generated the correct strategy. the game is 20000/4000/750/400/250/100/35/25/15/10/5/5/0
i track every hand and every pay so thats where i get my exact info
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I understand what you are saying. It seems odd to me too. A 5% discrepancy seems a bit much for a common hand for that number of trials to me too. But if somebody was going to rig the game, why do it on the giveback hands that are easy to track? I would do it on the rare hands where you would need a lot more samples to say it is rigged.
June 7th, 2025 at 1:28:37 PM
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ok so another question... ive played over 130k hands now and still no royal... expected every 42,000 hands. at what point is this too out of line?
June 7th, 2025 at 4:10:48 PM
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Quote: blueman777ok so another question... ive played over 130k hands now and still no royal... expected every 42,000 hands. at what point is this too out of line?
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You are either spending cash and time to play this game, or just spending time. Either way, I do not see how this game is a profitable activity worth pursuing any further. Crooked or not.
June 7th, 2025 at 4:25:10 PM
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the 5% discrepancy i figured out, that part is all good now. now the only stat suffering is the royal flush hits. just wondering how ugly stretches can go without hitting a royal...
June 7th, 2025 at 6:05:19 PM
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On my home game where I can keep stats; I'm playing $1.25/hand and losing an average 10 cents per hand without a Royal. I was 25K hands in so I was down around $2.5K. I've since had a reset on the statistics. If I was down 130K hands, I'd be down $13K. I think of it like Keno and the misses can add up. You can lose 5 to 10 times 40K hands before hitting a Royal or conversely hit 5 to 10 Royals before playing 40K hands. Losing 200K to 400K hands would be a loss of $20K to $40K before a Royal win. Winning $1K on a Royal 5 or 10 times would be the upside. I'd really need to hit a Royal every 10K hands to break even.
June 7th, 2025 at 6:08:52 PM
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5-10 times that much huh, seems like so many times lol. overall my stats are about -1.8 S.D. with my royal flushes being 0 out of 3 expected. guess its not that crazy then, im kind of new to being video poker stats so wasnt sure how likely it is to go X amount of time without hitting one, just kind of thought by now it would be getting into the rarer zone
June 7th, 2025 at 6:13:32 PM
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You're further along with the playing of VP hands than I am, I'm just guessing and I'm disillusioned.
What is -3 SD? How many hands without a Royal?
What is -3 SD? How many hands without a Royal?
June 7th, 2025 at 6:21:56 PM
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looks to me like, assuming all my other stats are the same ratio as they are now, -3 SD would be after 250k hands
and even then, if i purely add 4 royals to the stats, its still -2 SD
and even then, if i purely add 4 royals to the stats, its still -2 SD
June 8th, 2025 at 4:01:48 AM
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Quote: blueman777the 5% discrepancy i figured out, that part is all good now. now the only stat suffering is the royal flush hits. just wondering how ugly stretches can go without hitting a royal...
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I know people who have gone 170,000 hands between royals and have heard of someone going 220,000 hands.
I’m currently at 110,000 since my last royal but Belford that I hit 3 royals in 8000 hands. Welcome to video poker variance
Happy days are here again
June 8th, 2025 at 4:30:38 AM
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As the Wizard says, you are now *no closer* to hitting the royal than when you startedQuote: Hunterhill
I’m currently at 110,000 since my last royal ...
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the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 9th, 2025 at 12:19:34 PM
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finally hit the first royal after 200k hands. net results after 200k hands: -1.95 SD
