JoB Session Variance Dummy

The math is beyond me, and I’m trying my best to understand this. I’ve attempted to write my own program with ChatGPT and also used the session calculator on Wizard of Odds, but I can’t seem to get results that make sense.

Given a video poker game like Jacks or Better (with a known RTP and variance), can I accurately calculate my expected win/loss ranges for different confidence intervals for a given session?

The issue I’m running into:

Both with my ChatGPT-based calculator and the Wizard of Odds session calculator, the results seem to high based on my experience and in the case of my own chatty/python program, indicate that I can lose more than I wager, which doesn’t seem possible.

I’m entering 0.005 for the house edge and 19 for variance—am I misunderstanding how these values should be applied?
Additionally, I’m confused about variance in multi-hand play (e.g., 10-play machines).

I’ve read that variance should be higher for 10-play, but also that multi-hand play reduces variance because the draw variance is smoothed out.
After reading the Wizard of Odds variance page, I’m still not clear on why 10-play variance is higher than single-line, and whether that applies at the session level.
Any help clarifying these two issues—session win/loss calculation and multi-hand variance—would be greatly appreciated!

I don't know the maths of it, but you may never hit on those other 9 hands but hit on one. The best multi-line for least variance is 3 handed, because if you hit 3 of a kind on one, it pays for them all. If you hit a straight on one, you profit. If you hit a flush on one you profit. You may not improve enough to recoup 5 or 10 or more lines with drawing hands.

You MUST hit royals in order to realize the 99.54% return. You are going to go on a steadily downward spiral.

You can play with less of a bankroll for longer on a multi line game, but you are going to lose more and lose more slower than on a single line game.

Me personally, I vote for a little higher denomination on a single line rather than a multi line.

For example.. $2 ($10 bet) single line, rather than 10 line $0.50 ($25 bet).

Take a $8,000 royal rather than a $2,000 royal and $62.50 for 4oak? that is just painful...

Quote: BrestGrambler

...I’ve read that variance should be higher for 10-play, but also that multi-hand play reduces variance because the draw variance is smoothed out.

After reading the Wizard of Odds variance page, I’m still not clear on why 10-play variance is higher than single-line, and whether that applies at the session level.

Any help clarifying these two issues—session win/loss calculation and multi-hand variance—would be greatly appreciated!
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For the same pay table and same TOTAL AMOUNT BET, a multi-hand game will generate less variance than a single-line game.

For example - A $1 denom 5-play game at max bet ($25 total bet) will have less variance than a $5 denom single-line game at max credits ($25 total bet).

After 20,000 hands on the home VP game of various 1 hand VP games, I'm losing about 10 cents per $1.25 bet, or down $2,000. It takes a Royal to cut that loss in half, two to get back to even.