dwVPpLr1998
dwVPpLr1998
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February 19th, 2025 at 6:07:44 PM permalink
While playing an IGT video poker 50 play Deuces Wild machine at the 4 Queens Hotel and Casino, I was dealt 3 cards to the Royal plus a deuce. upon holding this combination I received only two wild Royal flushes out of the 50 hands dealt. I thought that this was a lousy result. A couple of hands later I was dealt 4 cards to a spade flush. upon hold those 4 cards I only received 7 flush payout hands with non of the dealt fifth card in the hand being a deuce. What are the odds of getting no dealt fifth card being a deuce out of 50 hands?
AutomaticMonkey
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Wizard
February 19th, 2025 at 7:38:46 PM permalink
Quote: dwVPpLr1998

...What are the odds of getting no dealt fifth card being a deuce out of 50 hands?
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1.171%.
Wizard
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February 20th, 2025 at 7:11:26 AM permalink
Quote: dwVPpLr1998

A couple of hands later I was dealt 4 cards to a spade flush. upon hold those 4 cards I only received 7 flush payout hands with non of the dealt fifth card in the hand being a deuce. What are the odds of getting no dealt fifth card being a deuce out of 50 hands?
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(43/47)^50 = 1.17%
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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February 20th, 2025 at 4:07:28 PM permalink
As for the first hand, of the 47 cards remaining, five (the other two cards from the Royal, and the other three deuces) will make the Wild Royal.

I get the probability of getting two or fewer Wild Royals out of 50 hands as the sum of:
P(none) = (42/47)^50 = 0.00361
P(one) = 50 x 5/47 x (42/47)^49 = 0.02149
P(two) = 1225 x (5/47)^2 x (42/47)^48 = 0.06268
The sum = 0.08778, or 8.778%, or about 1 in 11.4
calwatch
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February 20th, 2025 at 10:21:11 PM permalink
Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
AutomaticMonkey
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February 21st, 2025 at 12:04:49 AM permalink
Quote: calwatch

Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
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1.232%. But I'm drunk, I could be wrong.
billryan
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February 21st, 2025 at 3:22:29 AM permalink
I was playing 100 play DW at the 4 Queens. I was dealt three twos and didn't pick up a single one on the draw. I think I got two straight flushes and a ton of FOAK.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
ThatDonGuy
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February 21st, 2025 at 7:53:28 AM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Quote: calwatch

Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
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1.232%. But I'm drunk, I could be wrong.
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I get (46/47 x 45/46)^100 = (45/47)^100 = 1.2926%
DRich
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February 22nd, 2025 at 6:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: calwatch

Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
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That is not as improbable as you would think.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
smoothgrh
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February 22nd, 2025 at 12:31:41 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: calwatch

Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
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That is not as improbable as you would think.
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The emotions land differently when one WINS something that had a 1% chance of hitting!
ThatDonGuy
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February 22nd, 2025 at 4:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Quote: DRich

Quote: calwatch

Matt Bourie of the Jackpot Gents had possibly the worst bad beat ever recorded, hundred play TDB, dealt trips, no quads.

https://youtube.com/shorts/79xzthgfyPc?si=K3alqF0UCD8ybyIx
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That is not as improbable as you would think.
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The emotions land differently when one WINS something that had a 1% chance of hitting!
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There is about a 1.0314% of getting ten or more quads in that situation.
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