Video Poker Mystery

Hey, I am wondering if anyone has some solid evidence to solve this one.
The first VP appeared in the 70s and was Jacks or Better with an ER of 99.54%.
Notice here that 99.54% is very close to 100%.
Was this a fluke? Or did the designers of these games know for sure what the ER was?
I was discussing this with a friend recently who has a large IQ and he said that the answer was most likely that the makers of VP knew for sure what the ER was because they came so close to 100%.
Is my friend correct?
The general public only knew for sure the ER of VPs in the early 90s afaik and this was only beacuse they were using programs to calculate it.

Quote: petro

The general public only knew for sure the ER of VPs in the early 90s afaik and this was only beacuse they were using programs to calculate it.

Maybe the general public didn't have access to computing power till the early 90's, but you can be sure that the game designers had it all figured out when they designed the thing.

For what it's worth, anybody with a decent understanding of math can figure it all out with a pocket calculator.

A spreadsheet program simply makes it a lot easier.

By the way, the first personal computers with spreadsheet programs were available in the late 1970's.

Quote: petro

The first VP appeared in the 70s and was Jacks or Better with an ER of 99.54%.

I thought I had remembered reading somewhere that the first games were 2 pair or better. So I did some searching and found this:

Quote:

"The earliest game was known as Draw Poker and featured a lowest possible hand of two pairs. Changing this to a pair of jacks or better further increased the popularity as more hands were winners."

Try a 2 pair or better JW game sometime to see how much fun it is, (not).

Quote: petro

Hey, I am wondering if anyone has some solid evidence to solve this one.
The first VP appeared in the 70s and was Jacks or Better with an ER of 99.54%.
Notice here that 99.54% is very close to 100%.
Was this a fluke? Or did the designers of these games know for sure what the ER was?
I was discussing this with a friend recently who has a large IQ and he said that the answer was most likely that the makers of VP knew for sure what the ER was because they came so close to 100%.
Is my friend correct?
The general public only knew for sure the ER of VPs in the early 90s afaik and this was only beacuse they were using programs to calculate it.

Even then, the game designers had access to sufficient computing power to identify exactly the house advantage with optimum play. For that matter, someone with a calculator and a couple of spare hours could do the calculation.

The unquantifiable aspect was what the house advantage would be in real life--how many mistakes would the average player make? In JOB, it turns out that most plays are "intuitive"--a player with an average layman's knowledge of poker would be making the right play most of the time. Even the plays where many players DO screw up, like AQJxx, the AQJ being three different suits (keep only the QJ), or 55678 (keep the pair), don't cost very much when played incorrectly. So even the uninitiated play at about 99% return. Contrast with positive EV games like 10/7 Double Bonus or fullpay Deuces, where the 100%+ EV is only obtained via learning and accurately implementing a complex strategy. Those games can be +EV simply because the average player makes a LOT of mistakes in those games.

Quote: PaulEWog

I thought I had remembered reading somewhere that the first games were 2 pair or better. Try a 2 pair or better JW game sometime to see how much fun it is, (not).

Correct - page 217 of the Marshall Fey "Slot Machines" book shows a 1979 IGT machine with the standard 9/6 paytable but without the high pair pay. The RTP would have been around 81%.

I recall the first VP I played around 1982 was 2 pair or better, but quads paid 50-1 rather than 25-1

I read somewhere that either "one of the first" or "the first" was JoB. I just assumed that it was for a standard 9/6.
Wiki says very little abou the history of VP, only stating that they "...were produced, in the mid-1970s..."
But, if you guys are 'sure' that the first one was a 2 pair or better paytable then that does clear things up a little.
Still though, the question does remain, did they know the actual ER?

Quote: petro

Still though, the question does remain, did they know the actual ER?

They must have.

It's not enough for a casino to know they have an edge in every game, they have to know how big an edge. ITs' the same as all retail, be it services or goods, you need to know your costs and your potential earnings in order to set your prices. The house edge, which includes ER and all other math associated with the game, is the price the casino charges for a game. If the casino doesn't know how much it's charging, then management won't be able to set up a mix of games to maximize revenue and profit. Of course there are many considerations besides the edge, but it's still important.

There can be msiatkes in calculating the ER or the edge or any of a number of other things. But given the overall success of casinos, such mistakes would not seem to be prevalent.

I'd like to think game designers and casinos know what they are doing, but so often errors have arisen. That famed Sic Bo layout with 80:1 where it should have been 60:1 is a notorious example. I would imagine they thought they knew what they were doing and are probably glad it turned out okay, but did they know what the rate was? Sometimes you get an expert poker player who approaches the game as if he were an expert poker player rather than a drunken fanny-pack wearer.

I think 101.00 would be a good return. Get enough articles in the paper about it. People will show up and when they can't get a seat at the 101 machine, they will play something else.

Good question. Definitely "Ask the Wizard" worthy. However, unfortunately, the Wizard doesn't have an answer, yet. I'll ask around and see what I find out.

Update #1: videopokerinfo.com has an article about the inventor of video poker, Si Redd. It confirms the first game was like today's Draw Poker, but started at a two pair. The machine behind Si in the picture says "Draw 80 Poker." I wonder if the 80 refers to the win on something.

Update #2: slotsetc.com has a pictures of what looks like a mechanical video poker game. Click the link and go about 60% of the way down, or search on "Rock-Ola Hold and Draw".

Still no news on the first video poker pay table. However, I did an analysis of the Draw 80 Poker game, shown in the picture in the videopoker.info link in my last post.

Draw 80 Poker odds.

Quote: Wizard

Still no news on the first video poker pay table. However, I did an analysis of the Draw 80 Poker game, shown in the picture in the videopoker.info link in my last post.

Draw 80 Poker odds.

Wiz, Is it possible that a royal paid 80? not that it would make a massive difference to the %

Quote: WizardofEngland

Wiz, Is it possible that a royal paid 80? not that it would make a massive difference to the %

Yes, quite possible. I thought about mentioning that. Then again, it may refer to the year the machine came out.

Quote: Wizard

Yes, quite possible. I thought about mentioning that. Then again, it may refer to the year the machine came out.

I think that was a bit en vogue back then. I vividly recall an NBC logo for football which read "NFL '80"

It could also be the version number of the design, software, chips, or anything realted. Techies tend to pick names carefully, not unusually acompanied by inside jokes.

It could also be what some gaming exec wanted it called, or what the marketing department came up with.

The possibiliites are endless. Unless we find the Royal paid 80, that is.

Quote: WizardofEngland

Quote: Wizard

Still no news on the first video poker pay table. However, I did an analysis of the Draw 80 Poker game, shown in the picture in the videopoker.info link in my last post.

Draw 80 Poker odds.

Wiz, Is it possible that a royal paid 80? not that it would make a massive difference to the %

Here's the payglass: