McSweeney
McSweeney
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August 28th, 2023 at 6:11:59 PM permalink
So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?
AxelWolf
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McSweeney
August 28th, 2023 at 7:05:11 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?
link to original post

Variance is your friend. Bet the highest denomination possible at max bet. Use double up if offered. That will get you closest to the maximum EV and increase your hourly. "When do I stop, if I'm up"
That's a more complicated question. To maximize the value mathematically, that would nearly guarantee you always walk away a loser. There are sweet spots that make logistical sense. See Phillis Bruce's posts regarding loss rebates.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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August 28th, 2023 at 7:21:05 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?
link to original post

If your max bet is $1, the numbers don't work out to a good risk reward proposition. If you have a $1 denomination, your bet is probably $5 per hand. This will probably be +EV. Do you have $5, $10, or $25 denom JoB? Betting $125 a hand, you will have a good chance of losing $2500 in 50-100 hands and a small chance of hitting quads or multiple middle hands and quitting ahead. If you are going to lose $2500, you want to do it as quickly as possible so you lose less theoretically to the 0.45% house edge.

If you have double up, you can play in such a way that you never play more than $2500 coin in and you minimize the house theoretical win. Multi-play will also improve the EV of the play via higher variance.

If you let me know what the highest denom game is, I can run simulations. But are you sure you want to do this? Done properly, you will most likely lose $2500.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
McSweeney
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August 28th, 2023 at 7:21:41 PM permalink
Quote:

Variance is your friend. Bet the highest denomination possible at max bet. Use double up if offered. That will get you closest to the maximum EV and increase your hourly. "When do I stop, if I'm up"
That's a more complicated question. To maximize the value mathematically, that would nearly guarantee you always walk away a loser. There are sweet spots that make logistical sense. See Phillis Bruce's posts regarding loss rebates.
link to original post



I never thought of that before, but it does make total sense. Better to bet big and hit something big, then quit, than bleed to death slowly and never get ahead. The max bet per hand is actually $100.00. That's a little crazy for me but I do think I can stomach $50.00 per hand.

If the best way to maximize EV is betting $100.00 though, I'll do it. And yes I am willing to lose $2,500.00 so long as it's +EV. I have a lot of experience playing progressive jackpot slot machines and have taken huge losses before so it wouldn't be the end of the world for me.
Mental
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McSweeney
August 28th, 2023 at 7:28:50 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Quote:

Variance is your friend. Bet the highest denomination possible at max bet. Use double up if offered. That will get you closest to the maximum EV and increase your hourly. "When do I stop, if I'm up"
That's a more complicated question. To maximize the value mathematically, that would nearly guarantee you always walk away a loser. There are sweet spots that make logistical sense. See Phillis Bruce's posts regarding loss rebates.
link to original post



I never thought of that before, but it does make total sense. Better to bet big and hit something big, then quit, than bleed to death slowly and never get ahead. The max bet per hand is actually $100.00. That's a little crazy for me but I do think I can stomach $50.00 per hand.
link to original post

You are trying to lose $2500 and hoping you fail. You are essentially making a $2500 bet by doing the play. What difference does it make if the individual bets are $50 or $100? The latter gives you the most EV from the play. It also make the quitting decisions easier to make.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
McSweeney
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August 28th, 2023 at 7:33:12 PM permalink
Okay, $100 a hand it is!
AxelWolf
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August 28th, 2023 at 7:37:33 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Quote:

Variance is your friend. Bet the highest denomination possible at max bet. Use double up if offered. That will get you closest to the maximum EV and increase your hourly. "When do I stop, if I'm up"
That's a more complicated question. To maximize the value mathematically, that would nearly guarantee you always walk away a loser. There are sweet spots that make logistical sense. See Phillis Bruce's posts regarding loss rebates.
link to original post



I never thought of that before, but it does make total sense. Better to bet big and hit something big, then quit, than bleed to death slowly and never get ahead. The max bet per hand is actually $100.00. That's a little crazy for me but I do think I can stomach $50.00 per hand.

If the best way to maximize EV is betting $100.00 though, I'll do it. And yes I am willing to lose $2,500.00 so long as it's +EV. I have a lot of experience playing progressive jackpot slot machines and have taken huge losses before so it wouldn't be the end of the world for me.
link to original post

You play $500 on your first hand and get a str8 what will you do? Cash out and take the profit or play on hoping for a bigger score. What if it's a flush or full house?

This isn't a quiz, I'm just curious what you're personal goal is.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
McSweeney
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August 28th, 2023 at 8:30:55 PM permalink
Since the max bet on my thingy is $100, I'll do a theoretical on that. If I hit a first hand full house, that'd pay $900 and I'd definitely take that and quit. Flush $600, I'd probably take that too and quit. Straight would be $400. Hmm that would be more borderline but I'd probably quit on that too.
AxelWolf
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August 28th, 2023 at 10:16:13 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Since the max bet on my thingy is $100, I'll do a theoretical on that. If I hit a first hand full house, that'd pay $900 and I'd definitely take that and quit. Flush $600, I'd probably take that too and quit. Straight would be $400. Hmm that would be more borderline but I'd probably quit on that too.
link to original post

I missunderstood, I thought it was $100 x 5 coins for a $500 bet.

Look at ALL the VP variants oftentimes the best payback(9/6) isn't the best option. See if there are any other VP games with larger bets.

Is it good on all games or just VP?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
McSweeney
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August 29th, 2023 at 12:37:52 AM permalink
It's good for any slot game or video poker game. There's a huge variation of slot games to choose from. I just figured video poker gave me the best chance to come out ahead. In addition to Jacks or Better, there's the usual Game King variations like Bonus Poker, Joker Poker, etc. Jacks or Better is just the variation I know how to best play mathematically perfectly. If another variation is way better for this particular play, I could easily track down a guide to play it properly too.

The classic advantage slot games like Ocean Magic et al start in a disadvantaged state and if you play it, get it into a different state, then leave, the game will save your progress and continue from where you left off when you come back to it. The house edge on the non-video poker slot games is something like 5%.
McSweeney
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August 29th, 2023 at 12:41:47 AM permalink
Oh wait a minute. Good news! I found 5 Play Draw Poker with a $500 max bet!
OnceDear
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August 29th, 2023 at 1:10:10 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?
link to original post

AxelWolf had it right. Variance is indeed your friend. You just need to decide how you feel about losing.
The way I'd look at it is that with roughly a 50:50 chance of doubling or losing your $2500 (Ignoring HA) you have an EV of 50% of 250 = $125. If you max bet and go for a big win, you have a higher EV of up to $250.
So, I'd say bet High with the objective of at least $125 and consider calling it a day if you achieve that reasonable profit. If you can get $250 ahead, just say to yourself "I got the EV out of it, so I'm quitting"

It's a whole different ball game if you can get that offer repeatedly.

Before you wade in, Read the terms and conditions very carefully.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/4/#post1703
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2023 at 2:51:09 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Oh wait a minute. Good news! I found 5 Play Draw Poker with a $500 max bet!
link to original post

That is better than $100 a hand single line, however, not as good as $500 a hand single line. You're cutting down variance with multiple, lines, Mental seems to have the ability to sim that, I do not.

If you have time, keep looking. You never know what you might find.

Also, something to consider before you decide what to play and how. Ask yourself and others if possible what will prompt them to send you special offers.

I don't know if your Credit Card company gives you cash back which can be used for online casino deposits. But, that's extra money in your pocket if it's doable.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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August 29th, 2023 at 2:56:04 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: McSweeney

So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?
link to original post

AxelWolf had it right. Variance is indeed your friend. You just need to decide how you feel about losing.
The way I'd look at it is that with roughly a 50:50 chance of doubling or losing your $2500 (Ignoring HA) you have an EV of 50% of 250 = $125. If you max bet and go for a big win, you have a higher EV of up to $250.
So, I'd say bet High with the objective of at least $125 and consider calling it a day if you achieve that reasonable profit. If you can get $250 ahead, just say to yourself "I got the EV out of it, so I'm quitting"

It's a whole different ball game if you can get that offer repeatedly.

Before you wade in, Read the terms and conditions very carefully.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/4/#post1703
link to original post

It is nowhere near 50/50 to double and win. Many of your wins will far exceed doubling, so the win fraction will necessarily be well below 50%. Then, you need to subtract off the -EV which will be a $10-30 depending on various factors.

Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Dobrij
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August 29th, 2023 at 2:56:12 AM permalink
It all depends on the length of the sessions you play. Submit the exact paytable of the game, and I can do an analysis and simulation of what advantage cashback will give at different distances
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2023 at 3:05:13 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: McSweeney

So the official online casino run by my provincial government gave me an offer of a 10% loss rebate for losses incurred during a certain period of time, with a maximum of a $250.00 rebate. In other words, the most I can lose and get the max rebate is $2,500.00. The Jacks or Better paytable is very good: when doing $1.00 bets, it's $9.00 for a full house, $6.00 for a flush. Royal Flush also gives the full pay of $800.00. My understanding is that this makes the house edge only 0.54%.

I'm no math whiz so I can't make any exact calculations, but my plan is this:

1. Play and hope I get a huge hand or a big run of hands. If so, cash out and take the profits.
2. If not, keep playing until I lose $2,500.00 and receive my $250.00 rebate.

I understand that built into that tiny 0.54% house edge is the expectation that I hit the occasional royal flush, which probably isn't realistic, but even still, is this a +EV play if I play and hope to hit something big, and if not, use the loss rebate as insurance?

The way I'd look at it is that with roughly a 50:50 chance of doubling or losing your $2500 (Ignoring HA) you have an EV of 50% of 250 = $125. If you max bet and go for a big win, you have a higher EV of up to $250.
So, I'd say bet High with the objective of at least $125 and consider calling it a day if you achieve that reasonable profit. If you can get $250 ahead, just say to yourself "I got the EV out of it, so I'm quitting"
link to original post

NO, just NO! I wouldn't dare stop at $250 ahead. I don't have a sim but that's giving up too much value. And it's not like coin-flipping when you are playing VP.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2023 at 3:12:09 AM permalink
Quote: Mental


Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
link to original post

State regulated I assume? Why did they stiff you? Did you fight it, or say F it, it's not worth bringing attention to yourself?

I got stiffed on a sports bonus because I had an old account in a different state. They had no problem allowing me to deposit and use it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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August 29th, 2023 at 4:24:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental


Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
link to original post

State regulated I assume? Why did they stiff you? Did you fight it, or say F it, it's not worth bringing attention to yourself?

I got stiffed on a sports bonus because I had an old account in a different state. They had no problem allowing me to deposit and use it.
link to original post

Nothing good ever comes from contacting support. Either they stiffed me deliberately, in which case I will just piss them off by begging to get what is my due, or it is incompetence, in which case support will never be able to figure it out. Support is only interested in closing the help ticket, and they only technical solution they ever provide is to ask you to log out and clear your cache.

I get stiffed quite often. I just got stiffed today on play $500 to earn $50. The tracker says 0% completed even though I played over $500 on two slot games. Cost of business.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Sandybestdog
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August 29th, 2023 at 1:23:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental


Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
link to original post

State regulated I assume? Why did they stiff you? Did you fight it, or say F it, it's not worth bringing attention to yourself?

I got stiffed on a sports bonus because I had an old account in a different state. They had no problem allowing me to deposit and use it.
link to original post

I canít think of any instance where I got stiffed on a regulated account. They usually write out the terms very clearly. Now the few offshores that Iíve tried there is almost always something that goes wrong. From not getting credited with the bonus when you deposit to all the little rules you have to follow like not betting more than $5 a spin and you canít get a bonus for the following 2 weeks after a withdrawal. Also sometimes they will keep a rollover active for the next deposit even if you busted out of a previous one. You really have to wonder how these offshore places are still in business.
Sandybestdog
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August 29th, 2023 at 1:35:56 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental


Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
link to original post

State regulated I assume? Why did they stiff you? Did you fight it, or say F it, it's not worth bringing attention to yourself?

I got stiffed on a sports bonus because I had an old account in a different state. They had no problem allowing me to deposit and use it.
link to original post

Nothing good ever comes from contacting support. Either they stiffed me deliberately, in which case I will just piss them off by begging to get what is my due, or it is incompetence, in which case support will never be able to figure it out. Support is only interested in closing the help ticket, and they only technical solution they ever provide is to ask you to log out and clear your cache.

I get stiffed quite often. I just got stiffed today on play $500 to earn $50. The tracker says 0% completed even though I played over $500 on two slot games. Cost of business.
link to original post

This is true. Part of the internet casino bonus game is figuring out each sites system. If itís not working right or something like that itís not worth it. Support usually just has a checklist of answers they recite to you. Just yesterday I was playing on an app that wouldnít geolocate. Iím very familiar with how it works. Logged in and out several times and moved around. This app has given me this problem in the past. I spent 15 minutes on live chat and it just kept kicking me out and I didnít end up actually talking to anyone. So I just cancelled the bonus and withdrew my money. Now theyíre probably going to send me an email asking why Iím withdrawing without playing through the deposit. Any answer I give will just be met with a checklists of answers none of which will admit that yes well the app isnít working right. Then suddenly in a few weeks theyíll be an update and it will work.
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2023 at 1:49:01 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

Quote: Mental

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mental


Finally, there is a chance that the casino will just stiff you on the promo. I got stiffed on a $2000 loss rebate and a $5000 loss rebate this year. That amounts to a total of $24,000 in losses and nothing to show for it.
link to original post

State regulated I assume? Why did they stiff you? Did you fight it, or say F it, it's not worth bringing attention to yourself?

I got stiffed on a sports bonus because I had an old account in a different state. They had no problem allowing me to deposit and use it.
link to original post

Nothing good ever comes from contacting support. Either they stiffed me deliberately, in which case I will just piss them off by begging to get what is my due, or it is incompetence, in which case support will never be able to figure it out. Support is only interested in closing the help ticket, and they only technical solution they ever provide is to ask you to log out and clear your cache.

I get stiffed quite often. I just got stiffed today on play $500 to earn $50. The tracker says 0% completed even though I played over $500 on two slot games. Cost of business.
link to original post

This is true. Part of the internet casino bonus game is figuring out each sites system. If itís not working right or something like that itís not worth it. Support usually just has a checklist of answers they recite to you. Just yesterday I was playing on an app that wouldnít geolocate. Iím very familiar with how it works. Logged in and out several times and moved around. This app has given me this problem in the past. I spent 15 minutes on live chat and it just kept kicking me out and I didnít end up actually talking to anyone. So I just cancelled the bonus and withdrew my money. Now theyíre probably going to send me an email asking why Iím withdrawing without playing through the deposit. Any answer I give will just be met with a checklists of answers none of which will admit that yes well the app isnít working right. Then suddenly in a few weeks theyíll be an update and it will work.
link to original post

Perhaps you can Help EvenBob solve his problem. He gets an error when trying to make roulette bets. He believes they are onto his micro stakes betting system he claims to make a few shekels a day. Michigan state online casino.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
McSweeney
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August 29th, 2023 at 9:35:47 PM permalink
I'm not too worried about getting stiffed on the rebate because as I mentioned in my initial post, this is the official online casino endorsed by the provincial government. Actually, funny story: I use this same website to bet on sports. One time I used two $50 freebet tokens to bet on a baseball game, which then got cancelled due to rain. I waited one day but I didn't get my freebet tokens back, so I complained to support. They gave me two more $50 freebet tokens in compensation. Then, the day after that, my original two $50 freebet tokens also appeared back in my account, finally. I of course did not say a word about it!

Quote: Dobrij

It all depends on the length of the sessions you play. Submit the exact paytable of the game, and I can do an analysis and simulation of what advantage cashback will give at different distances
link to original post



Pay table is as follows:

Royal Flush - 800
Straight Flush - 50
4 of a Kind - 25
Full House - 9
Flush - 6
Straight - 4
3 of a Kind - 3
Two Pair - 2
Jacks or Better - 1

Well boyos, I think I'm gonna take the plunge tomorrow because the rebate period expires then at midnight. I'm going to do 5 Play Draw Poker Jacks or Better at $500 a spin ($100 per hand). Will report what happens, good or bad. I've decided that if I get even $500 ahead I am DONE!
Mental
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August 30th, 2023 at 8:11:49 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I'm not too worried about getting stiffed on the rebate because as I mentioned in my initial post, this is the official online casino endorsed by the provincial government. Actually, funny story: I use this same website to bet on sports. One time I used two $50 freebet tokens to bet on a baseball game, which then got cancelled due to rain. I waited one day but I didn't get my freebet tokens back, so I complained to support. They gave me two more $50 freebet tokens in compensation. Then, the day after that, my original two $50 freebet tokens also appeared back in my account, finally. I of course did not say a word about it!

Quote: Dobrij

It all depends on the length of the sessions you play. Submit the exact paytable of the game, and I can do an analysis and simulation of what advantage cashback will give at different distances
link to original post



Pay table is as follows:

Royal Flush - 800
Straight Flush - 50
4 of a Kind - 25
Full House - 9
Flush - 6
Straight - 4
3 of a Kind - 3
Two Pair - 2
Jacks or Better - 1

Well boyos, I think I'm gonna take the plunge tomorrow because the rebate period expires then at midnight. I'm going to do 5 Play Draw Poker Jacks or Better at $500 a spin ($100 per hand). Will report what happens, good or bad. I've decided that if I get even $500 ahead I am DONE!
link to original post

You won't get stiffed on purpose for earning a $250 once. You are more likely to be affected by an inadvertent error by the site. If someone programs the promo times wrong or forgets to run the program that pays you out, then you may have to contact support to get paid.

The $50 bonus that I thought I got stiffed for yesterday showed up four hours after I earned it. It is normally issued in real time. Casinos mess up promos all the time, especially new promos. I don't blame support. I blame the programmers and operators.


I modified my Monte Carlo loss rebate program to format output compatible with WoV tables. I hope I did not add errors to the calculations. The unit I am using is $100. In the table, WinLim is the number of units you are trying to win. The loss limit is always 25 units ($2500). The rebate is 10%. For a 5-play game, you will often end up above the chosen limit. Your maximum loss can be $2900 if you start a hand at -24 units and get nothing back.

ProbWin is the percentage of times that you will quit with a win of WinLim or more. # Hands is the average number of hands you will play in a session. AveLoss is the average playing loss and Rebate is the average rebate you will earn per session. The Net EV is the sum of the AveLoss and Rebate. The Net EV is maximized around WinLim = 30. Note that diminishing returns sets in at a much lower WinLim. You can get much of the EV by quitting after being ahead at least one unit!

If you try to win 100 units ($10K), you get an average rebate of 2.17 units, which is close to the max rebate of 2.5 units. However, you lose so much playing the extra hands that your Net EV goes way down.

Calculated for 5-Play 9/6 JoB with 5 * $100 bet
WinLimProbWin# HandsAveLossRebateNet EV
176.2%7.1-0.180.590.41
272.7%8.2-0.200.680.48
369.6%9.3-0.200.760.56
466.9%10.3-0.230.830.60
564.5%11.1-0.320.890.57
662.0%12.2-0.280.950.67
760.1%12.9-0.281.000.71
858.2%13.8-0.381.050.66
956.6%14.5-0.361.090.72
1055.0%15.2-0.381.120.74
1548.0%19.0-0.451.300.85
2042.6%22.6-0.561.440.88
3034.7%29.3-0.691.630.94
4028.9%36.0-0.851.780.92
6021.1%48.6-1.201.970.77
8016.4%60.0-1.482.090.61
10013.3%70.4-1.632.170.54

Clear as mud?
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Mental
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August 30th, 2023 at 8:55:33 AM permalink
I reran the simulation 100,000,000 times for each row to get better convergence.

Quitting at 5+ units will net you 0.63 units of EV ($63). You are a 2:1 favorite to win if you stop at 4+ units won.

WinLimProbWin# HandsAveLossRebateNet EV
176.2%7.1-0.160.590.43
272.7%8.2-0.190.680.49
369.6%9.3-0.210.760.55
466.9%10.3-0.230.830.59
564.6%11.1-0.250.890.63
662.0%12.2-0.280.950.67
760.1%12.9-0.301.000.70
858.2%13.7-0.311.040.73
956.6%14.5-0.331.090.76
1055.0%15.2-0.351.120.77
1548.0%19.0-0.431.300.87


Sanity check: Total Wagered: $20020620681500 Total Won: 19929177432800 ROI: 99.5433%
Last edited by: Mental on Aug 30, 2023
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Mental
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August 30th, 2023 at 9:48:15 AM permalink
For single-line VP at $100 per hand, the extra variance of DDB help tremendously versus JoB. Notice that the EV goes negative for JoB if you try to win 50 units on a 10% of $2500 rebate.

9/6 JoB 1-Play at $100 / hand
WinLimProbWin# HandsAveLossRebateNet EV
186.0%27.9-0.180.350.17
280.4%39.8-0.250.490.24
375.6%50.6-0.330.610.28
471.9%59.4-0.370.700.33
568.8%67.4-0.420.780.36
665.9%75.2-0.460.850.39
763.3%82.6-0.510.920.41
860.8%89.8-0.580.980.40
958.5%97.2-0.591.040.45
1056.4%104.1-0.641.090.45
1548.3%134.6-0.841.290.45
2042.4%162.3-1.011.440.43
3033.0%218.9-1.401.670.27
4026.6%272.1-1.721.840.12
6018.3%370.4-2.382.04-0.33
8013.2%457.0-2.892.17-0.72
10010.0%533.6-3.402.25-1.15

9/6 DDB 1-Play at $100 / hand
WinLimProbWin# HandsAveLossRebateNet EV
167.0%34.7-0.340.820.48
260.8%41.6-0.400.980.58
353.3%50.2-0.511.170.66
448.8%55.8-0.531.280.75
544.9%60.7-0.611.380.77
641.4%65.4-0.621.460.84
738.7%69.2-0.681.530.85
836.1%72.9-0.711.600.89
933.7%76.5-0.751.660.91
1032.1%79.2-0.781.700.92
1527.1%87.8-0.851.820.98
2025.2%91.7-0.891.870.98
3023.6%95.8-0.941.910.97
4021.0%104.6-1.011.980.97
6015.3%130.0-1.302.120.82
8012.6%147.8-1.472.190.72
10010.8%162.7-1.652.230.58
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Dobrij
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August 30th, 2023 at 11:26:07 AM permalink
Wow! great rules! where I can play this?
Definitely cashback gives an advantage to the gambler.

Attach a random result simulation of the optimal game for a distance of a million hands, the blue graph is the result of the gambler, and the red graph is if you take 10% cashback every 100, 200, 300 hands

10% cashback every 100 hands


10% cashback every 200 hands


10% cashback every 300 hands
McSweeney
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August 30th, 2023 at 9:04:08 PM permalink
Boys ... took several hours for me to muster up the courage but finally bit the bullet and had the most nerve-racking session of my gambling life. 5 Play Draw Poker Jacks or Better, $500 a spin ($100 per hand):

-First hand I hit 2 Jacks or Better for a loss. Since I only had a little over $500 in my account to begin with, I had to top up my account with an additional 2 grand to ensure I could finish out the play to the end. Unfortunately, I can't use my credit card to get cashback points because they charge me a $5.00 fee, so I used my debit card.

-Next few hands I got all garbage. A couple times I got hopeful after being dealt 2 suited high cards but didn't end up hitting anything but Jacks or Better or Two Pair. I lost 2 grand already in what, less than a minute? The most crazy gambling session I've had before this was that time I went after a progressive jackpot on the Majestic Stag slot machine betting $45.00 a spin, but that was child's play compared to this!

-FINALLY, on one of my last bets with only $410.50 left in the account (after placing the bet) and ready to officially lose $2,500 and declare the play a failure and cower away with tail tucked in between my legs and clutching my $250.00 rebate token consolation prize, I got a DEALT three of a kind. I then went on to hit ONE SET OF QUADS and the rest stayed 3 of a kind for a $3,700 win!!!!

Coin in: $2,510.50
Coin out: $4,110.50
Profit: $1,600.00

PLAY SUCCESSFUL!

Sincere thanks to everyone in this thread could not have done it without you. Stayed tuned for the next thrilling rebate period September 15 - 17!
ChumpChange
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August 30th, 2023 at 11:01:19 PM permalink
I'd have three $800 buy-ins of 160 spins at $5/spin on a $1 denom machine and try to hit some quads. Probably play DDB.
McSweeney
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100playMission146
August 30th, 2023 at 11:15:22 PM permalink
The last hand:



I know what you're thinking: "Shoulda played Bonus Poker!" But for something scary like this I'd rather hit a quick Flush and cash out with an extra hundred bucks in my pocket than go for the home run of hitting Quads and getting an extra thousand or so.
Mental
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August 31st, 2023 at 3:59:06 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I know what you're thinking: "Shoulda played Bonus Poker!" But for something scary like this I'd rather hit a quick Flush and cash out with an extra hundred bucks in my pocket than go for the home run of hitting Quads and getting an extra thousand or so.
link to original post

That's not what I was thinking. You should have started off with that hand instead of waiting until you were in a hole.

Otherwise, you should have played Double Double Bonus Poker for the extra EV. The extra variance off DDB easily overcomes the difference in the base game EV between JoB and DDB.

9/6 DDB 5-Play at $100 / hand
WinLimProbWin# HandsAveLossRebateNet EV
158.1%8.1-0.411.050.64
254.4%8.8-0.461.140.68
349.7%9.8-0.511.260.75
447.2%10.4-0.531.320.79
544.4%11.0-0.571.390.82
642.4%11.5-0.591.440.85
740.6%12.0-0.621.490.87
838.7%12.5-0.641.530.89
936.7%13.0-0.671.580.91
1035.4%13.4-0.701.620.91
1529.9%15.1-0.781.750.97
2026.6%16.3-0.831.831.00
3023.2%17.9-0.911.921.01
4020.6%19.4-1.011.990.97
6015.6%23.4-1.192.110.92
8012.7%26.5-1.362.180.82
10010.9%29.2-1.502.230.73


I am glad you came out of it with a good story and a win. That was a pretty good good earn rate per hour, not including the time it took for this thread.
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McSweeney
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August 31st, 2023 at 7:52:44 AM permalink
I can see the logic. Jacks or Better seems like the game where it's most likely you'll just bleed to death slowly without getting ahead, and the only way to get a truly huge hand is to get a Royal Flush (which isn't happening). Whereas, getting a 4 of a kind isn't THAT uncommon.

I celebrated the win, but I suppose I'm not out of the woods yet since I've committed to doing this every time a loss rebate period comes up. I'll play Double Double Bonus Poker from now on.
Mental
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rawtuffMission146
August 31st, 2023 at 8:36:01 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I can see the logic. Jacks or Better seems like the game where it's most likely you'll just bleed to death slowly without getting ahead, and the only way to get a truly huge hand is to get a Royal Flush (which isn't happening). Whereas, getting a 4 of a kind isn't THAT uncommon.

I celebrated the win, but I suppose I'm not out of the woods yet since I've committed to doing this every time a loss rebate period comes up. I'll play Double Double Bonus Poker from now on.
link to original post

You are the one who is risking the money, so I hope you can live with your decisions in the end. I won $12K on the last two 20% of $2500 rebates that I participated in. It is easy to think this is easy money. It is also possible to lose $2500 eight times out the next ten promos.

On 5-play JoB, you should expect to play 11*5=55 hands, so quads happens once every 8 sessions. Note that you get $75 of expectation by quitting just $300 ahead in 5-play DDB. You have to be much more aggressive and play until you are 10 units ahead to capture that much EV in 5-play JOB.

Loss rebates always have diminishing returns. You make the most EV on the first hand/spin of the series.

Good luck.

BTW, a host looked into my missing loss rebate and said that I should be paid - just be patient. On the other hand, I had a game malfunction with a winning combination showing. My account was debited and the debit transaction log shows the winning. Even after they cleared the stuck game, I never received the $500 payout and the credit transaction never appears in the log like it should after every win. Again, I have to be patient and hope I get paid.
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100play
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September 30th, 2023 at 1:20:03 AM permalink
Awesome I'm glad it turned out well. Keep us updated on the next one.
McSweeney
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dw44
March 15th, 2024 at 7:28:21 PM permalink


So this just happened! 25% loss rebate offer (max $2,000.00 loss to get a $500.00 freeplay token, although you have to churn it 30x to claim the winnings) and pocketed a $6,400.00 profit. I actually got quite a few 2 pairs, so it annoyed me that I was losing out on a hundred bucks each time by playing Bonus Poker Deluxe instead of Jacks or Better, but then it became apparent why it pays to get the juiced 4 of a kind pays instead, because you're never going to quit based on a two pair win.

I've been getting VERY lucky with my loss rebate plays. I've done it 4 times and all 4 times I have taken home a tidy profit. The second time, I used it on something other than video poker -- I don't want to get into details of what I did (PM me if interested) but even though I made something like $1,000.00, it scared me and I don't want to do it again, and I wasn't quite able to wrap my head around the math of the advantage. The third time, I did another video poker play, betting $100.00 a hand and quit after I hit a Full House for a $600.00 profit. And now my best score yet!
AxelWolf
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March 16th, 2024 at 3:08:31 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney



So this just happened! 25% loss rebate offer (max $2,000.00 loss to get a $500.00 freeplay token, although you have to churn it 30x to claim the winnings) and pocketed a $6,400.00 profit. I actually got quite a few 2 pairs, so it annoyed me that I was losing out on a hundred bucks each time by playing Bonus Poker Deluxe instead of Jacks or Better, but then it became apparent why it pays to get the juiced 4 of a kind pays instead, because you're never going to quit based on a two pair win.

I've been getting VERY lucky with my loss rebate plays. I've done it 4 times and all 4 times I have taken home a tidy profit. The second time, I used it on something other than video poker -- I don't want to get into details of what I did (PM me if interested) but even though I made something like $1,000.00, it scared me and I don't want to do it again, and I wasn't quite able to wrap my head around the math of the advantage. The third time, I did another video poker play, betting $100.00 a hand and quit after I hit a Full House for a $600.00 profit. And now my best score yet!
link to original post

Do you need to be in CA?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mental
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March 16th, 2024 at 7:36:54 AM permalink
I am happy for your string of successes. I don't like advising people on loss rebates because it can go really badly. If you play these aggressively, you can expect to lose five in a row quite often. It is much easier to stomach the losses if you are playing with house money.
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McSweeney
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March 17th, 2024 at 2:52:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf


Do you need to be in CA?



Yeah, it has one of those geo locator things where you need to be physically located in my Canadian province or else it won't let you log in.

In my first post in this thread, I neglected to mention the 30x wagering requirement of the freeplay token you're given in case of a loss, which makes the play not as amazing as it initially looked, because the sky high risk of ruin means you'd probably just lose the whole token and have nothing to show for your $2,000.00 loss. Still, it's an excuse to play some thrilling max bet video poker hands!
Mental
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March 18th, 2024 at 5:27:03 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Quote: AxelWolf


Do you need to be in CA?



Yeah, it has one of those geo locator things where you need to be physically located in my Canadian province or else it won't let you log in.

In my first post in this thread, I neglected to mention the 30x wagering requirement of the freeplay token you're given in case of a loss, which makes the play not as amazing as it initially looked, because the sky high risk of ruin means you'd probably just lose the whole token and have nothing to show for your $2,000.00 loss. Still, it's an excuse to play some thrilling max bet video poker hands!
link to original post

In some online casinos this would be 30x wagering requirement (WR) on slots, 150x WR on VP, and 300 WR on BJ. In most online casinos, craps and higher RTP slots can't be used for WR at all.

In order to estimate your EV for the play, we also need to know the HE on the game, the ordinary cashback, the expected loss before you hit your win stop or loss stop, and the optimal bonus conversion efficiency (BCE). If you must play 30x on a 97% RTP slot, then you have a 10% BCE (100-(30*3)). If cashback is paid on wagering requirement play, you can adjust the RTP and get a better BCE. If you can start a new loss rebate while doing the WR, the calculation becomes very tricky.

Even estimating the expected loss before you hit your win stop or loss stop generally requires Monte Carlo simulations. Simple standard deviation formulas are not accurate enough.

I am not suggesting that you provide all of the details for your particular promotion. I am just pointing out to others that loss rebates are much more complex to evaluate than the typical play-to-earn promotion. You can also spend a lot of time trying to figure out which game out of 1000+ games offers the best BCE.

Your best move is to hit your win stop and avoid the WR altogether. Good luck with that.
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AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2024 at 9:45:51 AM permalink
Quote: Mental


Your best move is to

Move on and look for something better. 😊

While your math and calculations are invaluable, and you are only advising on what you were presented with.

Canadian players have access to over 1500 online casinos. I have seen some interesting plays in CA that can't be accessed from the USA. Obviously, there are ways, but that gets complicated and comes with extra risk.


Is this a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, situation? I can't really answer that for the OP since there are too many unknown factors. But, I'm almost certain there is much better value to be had without much effort.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
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