Poll

1 vote (16.66%)
No votes (0%)
3 votes (50%)
3 votes (50%)
3 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (16.66%)
2 votes (33.33%)
1 vote (16.66%)
2 votes (33.33%)

6 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
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FiliusBruce
October 8th, 2021 at 10:59:26 AM permalink
I saw a few new video poker variants at the 2021 Global Gaming Expo. Lucky Suit was the easiest to analyze, so I'll start with that.

The game simply awards a multiplier if the first card dealt, from the left, equals a predesignated Lucky Suit.

For all the rules, example, and analysis, please see my new page on Lucky Suit. Note this should not be confused with Lucky Suit Poker.

The question for the poll is would you play Lucky Suit Poker.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
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October 8th, 2021 at 11:27:39 AM permalink
Thatís cool. Itís a neutral EV bet. So it increases variance without increasing or decreasing EV. Like the odds bet in craps.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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FiliusBruce
October 8th, 2021 at 2:05:05 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Thatís cool. Itís a neutral EV bet. So it increases variance without increasing or decreasing EV. Like the odds bet in craps.
link to original post



After looking at the WOO page, I am uncertain that the analysis done by the Wizard is the final word here for two reasons

1. When being dealt a 2-9 of the correct suit as the left-hand card the multiplier is stated to be in the range of 2-4. Wizard has assumed the average multiplier for a suited 2-9 is 3, but it would be a minor thing for the software to shift the probabilities such that 2X multiplier occurs more frequently than the 4X multiplier. Thus, it is not necessarily a neutral sidebet.

2. When the suited card is J-A the multipliers are at their highest. A=12x, K=10X, Q-8X and J = 6x.

However, given that your left-hand card is J-A, aren't you significantly more likely to wind up with "One Pair- Jacks or Better" or a "Royal Flush" than you would if the left hand card is 2-9? Thus, ignoring the multipliers for a moment, the RTP should naturally be higher when you have a J-A in the left hand card then when you have a 2-9 there . Now adding the effect of the high multipliers for J-A and low multipliers for 2-9, this should shift the entire game to a higher Return to Player than if you ignored this effect.

Comments? Have I misread something about the game?

Edit: The effect I am positing is even greater when this Lucky Suit feature is applied to a game for which Quad Aces has a higher payout than 4oak hands of a different rank. Because your Quad Aces hands are most likely to occur when your suited first card is an Ace.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
unJon
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October 8th, 2021 at 2:22:12 PM permalink
Gordon, I agree with your points. Both make sense.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 8th, 2021 at 3:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

After looking at the WOO page, I am uncertain that the analysis done by the Wizard is the final word here for two reasons

1. When being dealt a 2-9 of the correct suit as the left-hand card the multiplier is stated to be in the range of 2-4. Wizard has assumed the average multiplier for a suited 2-9 is 3, but it would be a minor thing for the software to shift the probabilities such that 2X multiplier occurs more frequently than the 4X multiplier. Thus, it is not necessarily a neutral sidebet.



That's a very good point and I agree with you. I should have thought of that.

I guess I'll have to get my hands dirty with an analysis after all. Wish I knew the average multiplier for a 2 to 9.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
technics
technics
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October 8th, 2021 at 8:16:27 PM permalink
Off topic, but could you check the free video poker game on the Wizard of Odds site? The Warn on Strategy Errors tells me that three to a flush is a hand that should be held. Is that correct? It doesnít seem to be based on the strategy information that Iíve read from you in the past. Thanks.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 9th, 2021 at 5:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: technics

Off topic, but could you check the free video poker game on the Wizard of Odds site? The Warn on Strategy Errors tells me that three to a flush is a hand that should be held. Is that correct? It doesnít seem to be based on the strategy information that Iíve read from you in the past. Thanks.
link to original post



Would you recall the precise hand and game? Did the hand have any straight flush potential?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 19th, 2021 at 4:46:11 PM permalink
King Show Games, the makers of Lucky Suit Poker, kindly told me the average multiplier when the rank is 2 to 9 is 2.58, for 9-6 double double bonus. Using this information, I was able to do a proper analysis. Please have a new look at my page on Lucky Suit Poker. Thank you.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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October 19th, 2021 at 5:07:50 PM permalink
Great analysis with lots of interesting intermediate results that I have never seen before.

The last table on the Lucky-Suit page was probably intended to have a different title.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.

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