Dyvan13
• Posts: 110
Joined: May 27, 2016
August 26th, 2021 at 5:20:05 PM permalink
Greetings fellow gamblers.

I work full time and do some low-level AP-ing as a hobby. I have a question for the math wiz'es on here.

What is my percent Risk of ruin playing 5-play NSUD, \$5/hand for a total bet of \$25 trying to reach \$50,000 coin-in with a \$1000 bankroll?

What is the same risk of ruin, but instead with a \$2000 bankroll?

And out of curiosity, what would I need bankroll-wise to have only 5% risk of ruin?

I typically only play quarter VP (W2-G's are nasty when you claim the standard deduction on taxes), but this might be worth it.

Thank you!
sabre
• Posts: 1172
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
Thanked by
August 26th, 2021 at 5:49:43 PM permalink
This is not a trivial question. You might start here

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/17911-standard-deviation-for-multihand-video-poker/

In games like blackjack the outcome distribution is more or less bell shaped. In video poker is isn't. For this reason when you calculate ROR for VP the same way you'd calculate it for BJ it's going to underestimate your ROR. Personally, I would use simulation to get the answers you're looking for.

Beating Bonuses has an excellent java based simulator for these types of problems. Unfortunately it's not trivial to get it working with modern browsers. Your best bet is to use an old version of Internet Explorer.

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/twotier_java.htm
sabre
• Posts: 1172
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
Thanked by
August 26th, 2021 at 5:58:49 PM permalink
While this isn't what you're looking for it's what that simulator easily handles. Might give you some ballpark ideas. NSUD has lower house edge but higher variance. This is also for 4 play.

9/6 JOB 4 play \$5/hand (\$1 coin)

\$1000 bankroll to \$50,000 target = Bust 67.28%

\$2000 bankroll = Bust 29.90%

\$3220 bankroll = Bust 4.98%

These numbers are from sims of over 100k trials