Viper21
Joined: Mar 21, 2020
• Posts: 27
July 7th, 2020 at 8:01:44 PM permalink
Hypothetically speaking let's say there was a casino that \$1 coin in = 1 point and 1000 points = \$1. They offer 3x point days. They also have a 99.92% game with \$1, \$5, \$10, \$25 denoms. If you were to play on 3x point days then \$1 coin in = 3 points and say you can play at a speed of 1,000 hands an hour. You hop on the \$5 denom and max bet playing \$25,000 coin in an hour. That hour you have an expected loss of \$25,000 x .08% = \$20. \$25,000 coin in at 3x points earns you \$75. \$75 comp dollars - the \$20 expected loss would give you a net hourly of \$55 an hour. If you have the bankroll to survive the variance it seems in the players best interest to play on 3x point days in this hypothetical casino.
Is my math correct?

Thanks
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
• Posts: 7237
July 7th, 2020 at 8:30:05 PM permalink
At that hypothetical casino that absolutely exists in real life, I think you can exchange the points for freeplay but not for cash. So you'd only get 99.92% of that money. Other than that tiny issue, your math looks good to me.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8541
July 8th, 2020 at 6:32:28 AM permalink
A 1000hands an hour may not be doable playing \$25 a hand because you will be gettting taxables that slow you way down.
Order from chaos
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
• Posts: 827
July 8th, 2020 at 7:51:04 AM permalink
Up here in Reno, they have 99% and 5 and 6X bonus days on a weekly basis. So pretty much doubling your OP.
sabre
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
• Posts: 1172
July 8th, 2020 at 11:12:35 AM permalink
You're going to need a six figure bankroll to have a reasonable risk of ruin to make that \$55/hr. Then again you might score some nice mailers ... so ... I guess it could be worth it.
Viper21
Joined: Mar 21, 2020
• Posts: 27
July 8th, 2020 at 12:49:07 PM permalink
Dang, if only this hypothetical casino existed and there were investors willing to bankroll APs. Too bad. Appreciate the responses.
GaryJKoehler
Joined: Oct 22, 2015
• Posts: 171
July 9th, 2020 at 3:57:16 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

A 1000hands an hour may not be doable playing \$25 a hand because you will be gettting taxables that slow you way down.

Those taxable will slice into your EV.
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 8541
July 9th, 2020 at 7:22:59 AM permalink
Quote: GaryJKoehler

Those taxable will slice into your EV.

The downtime during the taxable will cut into the EV. Not the win itself.
Order from chaos
WTflush
Joined: Jan 27, 2020
• Posts: 96
July 9th, 2020 at 7:26:13 AM permalink
Quote: GaryJKoehler

Those taxable will slice into your EV.

If there's 2 or 3 machines next to each other it wouldn't cut in too much.

Still, this seems like way too tiny of an edge to be worth the risk. If you have a bankroll this big there are better opportunities to be found. You need to know the strategy and all exceptions perfectly and play perfectly to have an edge here. One single mishold or a sticky button can easily give up all of your EV for a couple hours.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012