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SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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January 13th, 2020 at 11:34:57 AM permalink
The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?
Mission146
Mission146
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January 13th, 2020 at 12:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?



Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.

Triple Play does not affect the house edge. You have less variance on the draws, so I believe you actually approach the, "Long-term," on fewer dealt hands.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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January 13th, 2020 at 1:27:14 PM permalink
If I switch to the same 97% game at triple play, can I expect to lose three times as much over staying with single hand games?
Mission146
Mission146
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January 13th, 2020 at 1:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

If I switch to the same 97% game at triple play, can I expect to lose three times as much over staying with single hand games?



Yes, the house edge is unchanged.
Vultures can't be choosers.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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Mission146
January 14th, 2020 at 3:40:47 AM permalink
As a recreational player I am always looking for ways to extend my play with a given bankroll. I wondered if the lower variance of triple play would allow me to play longer with the same bankroll? I have tried triple play games, but I always end up losing way more than I am comfortable with.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 14, 2020
rsactuary
rsactuary
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January 14th, 2020 at 5:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

As a recreational player I am always looking for ways to extend my play with a given bankroll. I wondered if the lower variance of triple play would allow me to play longer with the same bankroll? I have tried triple play games, but I always end up losing way more than I am comfortable with.



so..... you answered your own question....
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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January 15th, 2020 at 4:11:07 AM permalink
Variance as it refers to video poker is a term I do not fully understand. The video poker games I play are Jacks or Better (7/5), Bonus Poker (6/5), Double Double Bonus (8/5) and Deuces Wild (97%). These are the most common quarter games in every casino where we play. If we find better games, we play them.

The variance is lowest in Jacks and Bonus Poker. It's the highest in DDB. You would think Jacks and Bonus Poker would be the mildest game with the smallest bankroll swings. This is not always the case. Quad based games have a nasty habit of producing long "no quad" sessions. I have had numerous day long sessions without one. It's amazing how much money you can lose on a day like that even when doubling your money with two pairs. We choose to play Deuces Wild. If you don't hit a quad deuce or a royal you are going to have a bad bad, but it seems much better to us than no quads.

Why is this important to this forum? Less than 1% of the players in America play positive video poker games. Playing negative video poker is about getting the most for your money. If you limit this forum to only positive games, you are leaving out 99% of the players who want and need your expertise. Telling them not to play is not making them better players.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 15, 2020
Mission146
Mission146
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djtehch34t
January 15th, 2020 at 5:27:54 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

Variance as it refers to video poker is a term I do not fully understand. The video poker games I play are Jacks or Better (7/5), Bonus Poker (6/5), Double Double Bonus (8/5) and Deuces Wild (97%). These are the most common quarter games in every casino where we play. If we find better games, we play them.

The variance is lowest in Jacks and Bonus Poker. It's the highest in DDB. You would think Jacks and Bonus Poker would be the mildest game with the smallest bankroll swings. This is not always the case. Quad based games have a nasty habit of producing long "no quad" sessions. I have had numerous day long sessions without one. It's amazing how much money you can lose on a day like that even when doubling your money with two pairs. We choose to play Deuces Wild. If you don't hit a quad deuce or a royal you are going to have a bad bad, but it seems much better to us than no quads.

Why is this important to this forum? Less than 1% of the players in America play positive video poker games. Playing negative video poker is about getting the most for your money. If you limit this forum to only positive games, you are leaving out 99% of the players who want and need your expertise. Telling them not to play is not making them better players.



I'll try to explain variance in not too much of a mathy way for you:

Variance simply refers to how far the possible results in a set are from the expected value.

Okay, so with these games that all have roughly the same Expected Return (very roughly) we can call .97, Variance just refers really to how many possible results do we have that are far away from .97.

In the case of DDB v. your JoB and BP, there are a number of things that do that. Regular Quads pay 50-FOR-1 instead of 25. 2-4's with no good kicker pay 80-FOR-1 and so on...

Additionally, with DDB, the Two Pair pays 1-FOR-1, but interestingly enough, that would actually reduce the Variance (taken in isolation) because it is a result closer to the expected value, which is slightly less than 1. (0.97)

In the long run, a game with less variance will produce more consistent (range) results and should also cause you to approach the long-run expectation more quickly. The reason for that is the tightness of the possible range of results (the pays) for each trial. In the short run, you might not see this happen so obviously. When you have extra hands paying 50 (as opposed to 25), 80, 160-160 and 400 FOR 1, your bankroll is just going to bounce up and down more.

The question of not hitting quads in a given session is relevant, but only minimally so. Excepting for strategy changes, the same exact (no quad) session on DDB would generally be worse because two pair pays even money.

LAST THING: Telling them not to play DOES make them better players. It is money-wise better to play positive than negative and it is mathematically better to not play at all than to play negative. That's what a house edge is. A person who doesn't play video poker at all is technically playing it better than someone who plays at a (all factors included) negative expectation.
Vultures can't be choosers.
EVBandit
EVBandit
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January 15th, 2020 at 5:55:47 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?



1) the “variance” is higher in triple play vs playing 3 independent machines, respectively other things being equal, due to triple play having a “covariance” effect. For example, when you flop a Royal Flush on triple play, you automatically flop three Royal flushes due to this covariance effect.

2) your bankroll last shorter NOT longer (other things being equal) for a number of reasons. Check out this website for the seminal article on N-Play. Jazbo did the ground breaking work on N-Play.

Jazbo(dot)com/ videopoker / nplay(dot)h t m l (remove the spaces)

Another reason is called the dealer hand effect ... see next answer.

3) Triple play has NO EFFECT on the payback or house edge on a theoretical level, e.g. computer perfect play.

But watch out for the DEALT HAND EFFECT. 12 of your royal flushes (4 for each suit) are waiting for you until you flop those specific Royal flushes. Same applies for dealt Straight Flushes, Quads, etc.

If you DO NOT flop your fair share of dealt winners, then your realized payback is LESS than theoretical payback.

This dealt hand effect is really nasty at 100-Play.

4) for bankroll requirements, please refer to Jazbo’s article.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
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January 15th, 2020 at 6:01:59 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

A person who doesn't play video poker at all is technically playing it better than someone who plays at a (all factors included) negative expectation.

Thanks for the explanation. I agree with your statement above... however. Yesterday I went to the casino like I do every week. Florida is full of people right now, so the casino was crowded. For the first time in a long time I had a problem getting a seat. The Tampa casino has at least 50 video poker machines and they were all full with people playing 97% games.

If you play deuces wild correctly, the bell rings often. On occasion, a player will comment on this. When I go to the casino, I try to avoid lengthy discussions because everyone has their own opinions. I play according to the computer software I bought from Bob Dancer. I can't change the odds, but I can play as accurately as possible. I also play as small as possible. This makes me as close to a non player who stays home as you can get while enjoying a day at the casino.

I am taking my wife to Biloxi for Valentine's day. The Beau Rivage is comping our flight and our rooms. All the games are 97%. An expert would stay home. We take advantage of their hospitality while playing the games that have a house edge. While we are enjoying one of the most beautiful and luxurious hotels on the Gulf Coast, the expert would be home watching his grass grow. Who is the better player?

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