Thread Rating:

SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 13th, 2020 at 11:34:57 AM permalink
The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 13th, 2020 at 12:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?



Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.

Triple Play does not affect the house edge. You have less variance on the draws, so I believe you actually approach the, "Long-term," on fewer dealt hands.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 13th, 2020 at 1:27:14 PM permalink
If I switch to the same 97% game at triple play, can I expect to lose three times as much over staying with single hand games?
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 13th, 2020 at 1:37:52 PM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

If I switch to the same 97% game at triple play, can I expect to lose three times as much over staying with single hand games?



Yes, the house edge is unchanged.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
Thanked by
Mission146
January 14th, 2020 at 3:40:47 AM permalink
As a recreational player I am always looking for ways to extend my play with a given bankroll. I wondered if the lower variance of triple play would allow me to play longer with the same bankroll? I have tried triple play games, but I always end up losing way more than I am comfortable with.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 14, 2020
rsactuary
rsactuary
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2315
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
January 14th, 2020 at 5:33:28 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

As a recreational player I am always looking for ways to extend my play with a given bankroll. I wondered if the lower variance of triple play would allow me to play longer with the same bankroll? I have tried triple play games, but I always end up losing way more than I am comfortable with.



so..... you answered your own question....
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 4:11:07 AM permalink
Variance as it refers to video poker is a term I do not fully understand. The video poker games I play are Jacks or Better (7/5), Bonus Poker (6/5), Double Double Bonus (8/5) and Deuces Wild (97%). These are the most common quarter games in every casino where we play. If we find better games, we play them.

The variance is lowest in Jacks and Bonus Poker. It's the highest in DDB. You would think Jacks and Bonus Poker would be the mildest game with the smallest bankroll swings. This is not always the case. Quad based games have a nasty habit of producing long "no quad" sessions. I have had numerous day long sessions without one. It's amazing how much money you can lose on a day like that even when doubling your money with two pairs. We choose to play Deuces Wild. If you don't hit a quad deuce or a royal you are going to have a bad bad, but it seems much better to us than no quads.

Why is this important to this forum? Less than 1% of the players in America play positive video poker games. Playing negative video poker is about getting the most for your money. If you limit this forum to only positive games, you are leaving out 99% of the players who want and need your expertise. Telling them not to play is not making them better players.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 15, 2020
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
Thanked by
djtehch34t
January 15th, 2020 at 5:27:54 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

Variance as it refers to video poker is a term I do not fully understand. The video poker games I play are Jacks or Better (7/5), Bonus Poker (6/5), Double Double Bonus (8/5) and Deuces Wild (97%). These are the most common quarter games in every casino where we play. If we find better games, we play them.

The variance is lowest in Jacks and Bonus Poker. It's the highest in DDB. You would think Jacks and Bonus Poker would be the mildest game with the smallest bankroll swings. This is not always the case. Quad based games have a nasty habit of producing long "no quad" sessions. I have had numerous day long sessions without one. It's amazing how much money you can lose on a day like that even when doubling your money with two pairs. We choose to play Deuces Wild. If you don't hit a quad deuce or a royal you are going to have a bad bad, but it seems much better to us than no quads.

Why is this important to this forum? Less than 1% of the players in America play positive video poker games. Playing negative video poker is about getting the most for your money. If you limit this forum to only positive games, you are leaving out 99% of the players who want and need your expertise. Telling them not to play is not making them better players.



I'll try to explain variance in not too much of a mathy way for you:

Variance simply refers to how far the possible results in a set are from the expected value.

Okay, so with these games that all have roughly the same Expected Return (very roughly) we can call .97, Variance just refers really to how many possible results do we have that are far away from .97.

In the case of DDB v. your JoB and BP, there are a number of things that do that. Regular Quads pay 50-FOR-1 instead of 25. 2-4's with no good kicker pay 80-FOR-1 and so on...

Additionally, with DDB, the Two Pair pays 1-FOR-1, but interestingly enough, that would actually reduce the Variance (taken in isolation) because it is a result closer to the expected value, which is slightly less than 1. (0.97)

In the long run, a game with less variance will produce more consistent (range) results and should also cause you to approach the long-run expectation more quickly. The reason for that is the tightness of the possible range of results (the pays) for each trial. In the short run, you might not see this happen so obviously. When you have extra hands paying 50 (as opposed to 25), 80, 160-160 and 400 FOR 1, your bankroll is just going to bounce up and down more.

The question of not hitting quads in a given session is relevant, but only minimally so. Excepting for strategy changes, the same exact (no quad) session on DDB would generally be worse because two pair pays even money.

LAST THING: Telling them not to play DOES make them better players. It is money-wise better to play positive than negative and it is mathematically better to not play at all than to play negative. That's what a house edge is. A person who doesn't play video poker at all is technically playing it better than someone who plays at a (all factors included) negative expectation.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EVBandit
EVBandit
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 20
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 5:55:47 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?



1) the “variance” is higher in triple play vs playing 3 independent machines, respectively other things being equal, due to triple play having a “covariance” effect. For example, when you flop a Royal Flush on triple play, you automatically flop three Royal flushes due to this covariance effect.

2) your bankroll last shorter NOT longer (other things being equal) for a number of reasons. Check out this website for the seminal article on N-Play. Jazbo did the ground breaking work on N-Play.

Jazbo(dot)com/ videopoker / nplay(dot)h t m l (remove the spaces)

Another reason is called the dealer hand effect ... see next answer.

3) Triple play has NO EFFECT on the payback or house edge on a theoretical level, e.g. computer perfect play.

But watch out for the DEALT HAND EFFECT. 12 of your royal flushes (4 for each suit) are waiting for you until you flop those specific Royal flushes. Same applies for dealt Straight Flushes, Quads, etc.

If you DO NOT flop your fair share of dealt winners, then your realized payback is LESS than theoretical payback.

This dealt hand effect is really nasty at 100-Play.

4) for bankroll requirements, please refer to Jazbo’s article.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 6:01:59 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

A person who doesn't play video poker at all is technically playing it better than someone who plays at a (all factors included) negative expectation.

Thanks for the explanation. I agree with your statement above... however. Yesterday I went to the casino like I do every week. Florida is full of people right now, so the casino was crowded. For the first time in a long time I had a problem getting a seat. The Tampa casino has at least 50 video poker machines and they were all full with people playing 97% games.

If you play deuces wild correctly, the bell rings often. On occasion, a player will comment on this. When I go to the casino, I try to avoid lengthy discussions because everyone has their own opinions. I play according to the computer software I bought from Bob Dancer. I can't change the odds, but I can play as accurately as possible. I also play as small as possible. This makes me as close to a non player who stays home as you can get while enjoying a day at the casino.

I am taking my wife to Biloxi for Valentine's day. The Beau Rivage is comping our flight and our rooms. All the games are 97%. An expert would stay home. We take advantage of their hospitality while playing the games that have a house edge. While we are enjoying one of the most beautiful and luxurious hotels on the Gulf Coast, the expert would be home watching his grass grow. Who is the better player?
EVBandit
EVBandit
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 20
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 6:04:56 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand



Dude, you really think to rethink that comment.

Suppose I play 3-lines or triple play at $3.75 a spin (e.g. $1.25 a line).

Now compare that to playing 3 single line machines at the same time with each line being $1.25, respectively.

If you understand what I am saying, we are controlling for the same game and same wager amount.

It is a KNOWN FACT THAT N-PLAY has HIGHER VARIANCE when controlling for the same number of lines & wager amount respectively.

And how is 3 lines of $1.25 playing at the same time DIFFERENT from 1 line of $3.75.

I have a multi-line patent on video poker that SPECIFICALLY addresses the issue that you raised.
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 15th, 2020 at 6:12:39 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Dude, you really think to rethink that comment.

Suppose I play 3-lines or triple play at $3.75 a spin (e.g. $1.25 a line).

Now compare that to playing 3 single line machines at the same time with each line being $1.25, respectively.

If you understand what I am saying, we are controlling for the same game and same wager amount.

It is a KNOWN FACT THAT N-PLAY has HIGHER VARIANCE when controlling for the same number of lines & wager amount respectively.

And how is 3 lines of $1.25 playing at the same time DIFFERENT from 1 line of $3.75.

I have a multi-line patent on video poker that SPECIFICALLY addresses the issue that you raised.



You mistook my meaning. I meant more like if there were such a thing as a $0.75/denom machine (Max bet $3.75) then triple play at $1.25/hand would have less variance.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
rsactuary
rsactuary
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2315
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
January 15th, 2020 at 6:13:30 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

I play according to the computer software I bought from Bob Dancer. I can't change the odds, but I can play as accurately as possible. I also play as small as possible.



Do you adjust the payout for the royal in the software to coincide with the payout on the machine?
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 6:22:18 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Do you adjust the payout for the royal in the software to coincide with the payout on the machine?

Yes. We frequently travel around the country on video poker vacations. I carry a laptop loaded with VPW software with me in my room in case I encounter a pay schedule I haven't seen. I always adjust my play according to the software. Video poker frequently has the lowest house edge of any casino game. If you are going to go into a casino, you might as well take advantage of that.

Most of today's video poker games are negative. If you are going to play them, the strategy changes from making a profit to controlling the cost. The casino is willing to give you all kinds of stuff to get you to play. If you don't control the cost, you will overpay for their "free" stuff.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4655
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 15th, 2020 at 6:28:43 AM permalink
I don’t follow what the “dealt hand effect” for multi line VP is. Can someone elaborate?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
EVBandit
EVBandit
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 20
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 6:43:14 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You mistook my meaning. I meant more like if there were such a thing as a $0.75/denom machine (Max bet $3.75) then triple play at $1.25/hand would have less variance.



Let’s not play games. Here is your entire 1st paragraph:

“Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.”

I stand by what I wrote earlier. And no, I did not take things out of context.
rsactuary
rsactuary
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2315
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
January 15th, 2020 at 6:51:53 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

Yes. We frequently travel around the country on video poker vacations. I carry a laptop loaded with VPW software with me in my room in case I encounter a pay schedule I haven't seen. I always adjust my play according to the software. Video poker frequently has the lowest house edge of any casino game. If you are going to go into a casino, you might as well take advantage of that.

Most of today's video poker games are negative. If you are going to play them, the strategy changes from making a profit to controlling the cost. The casino is willing to give you all kinds of stuff to get you to play. If you don't control the cost, you will overpay for their "free" stuff.



Let me try and ask a different way... when you play on the software, do you bet 1 coin per hand or 5 coins per hand?
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 15th, 2020 at 7:04:00 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Let’s not play games. Here is your entire 1st paragraph:

“Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.”

I stand by what I wrote earlier. And no, I did not take things out of context.



The second part of what I said was wrong. The first part is what I clarified for. I don’t know what the heck I was trying to mean in the second part, but it’s definitely a wrong statement.

What do you think I meant by $3.75/hand single handed?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 8:16:56 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Let me try and ask a different way... when you play on the software, do you bet 1 coin per hand or 5 coins per hand?

That depends upon the pay schedule and the requirements of the comps you may wish to earn. It is common to find single coin dollar games with better odds than max coin quarter games. Play strategy changes when you play single coin VP. When playing 97% games, the greater your coin-in the more you lose long term.
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 645
  • Posts: 4348
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
January 15th, 2020 at 9:08:38 AM permalink
Let's say you need $30k coin in to make it to the next tier level and have these 97% payables as your best options:

1) .25 6/5 bp (96.9%) triple play, var is 20
2) $1 single line 9/12 dw (97.1%), var is 25

I would sacrifice the .2% HE and go for the triple play to lessen the variance.
Bp by it's nature is lower var than dw to begin with.
Adding triple play *and* betting less per spin lowers the var even more compared to $1 dw
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 9:59:35 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Let's say you need $30k coin in to make it to the next tier level and have these 97% payables as your best options:

1) .25 6/5 bp (96.9%) triple play, var is 20
2) $1 single line 9/12 dw (97.1%), var is 25

I would sacrifice the .2% HE and go for the triple play to lessen the variance.
Bp by it's nature is lower var than dw to begin with.
Adding triple play *and* betting less per spin lowers the var even more compared to $1 dw

Why don't you play 60 hands at $500 a hand? I'm sure the odds and the comps are better. I also suspect the drink girls are a lot friendlier. (joke)

Before I invest $30K in the next tier level, I want to know if it's worth the cost. If the only factor affecting your decision is profit, you would never play a 97% game. If you are going to sit through $30K playing a losing game, don't you want to at least enjoy the process? Triple play or Single play, it's all the same game. If the game is negative, there is going to be a cost.

We play video poker because it's the least expensive way to enjoy the casino experience. Disney World is about an hour's drive from our home. Millions of people look forward to visiting there each year. Right now a single park ticket costs a minimum of $109 a day each. A night at a Disney Park Hotel starts at $300 a night, most rooms are much more. Food and transportation is expensive. A husband and wife can easily spend $1,000 a day. For what? For the experience. We get the experience we desire just for playing a game we enjoy. What's better than that?
Joeman
Joeman 
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2422
Joined: Feb 21, 2014
January 15th, 2020 at 10:25:35 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

I am taking my wife to Biloxi for Valentine's day. The Beau Rivage is comping our flight and our rooms. All the games are 97%. An expert would stay home. We take advantage of their hospitality while playing the games that have a house edge. While we are enjoying one of the most beautiful and luxurious hotels on the Gulf Coast, the expert would be home watching his grass grow. Who is the better player?

Last time I was in Biloxi, there were 98% and even 99% games available, even at the 25c level. VPFree2 says they are still there.

Also, do you fly Allegiant out of SFB? Their fares are often quite low, and I have contemplated taking that flight, but Sanford is a bit of a trek for me from Jax. They don't have the best schedule, and Allegiant isn't for everyone, but that's the closest direct flight to GPT for me.

Hope you and the Mrs. enjoy your trip!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6281
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
January 15th, 2020 at 10:47:31 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Let’s not play games. Here is your entire 1st paragraph:

“Variance: Playing triple-play would have less variance than playing single-handed at $3.75/hand. The same number of deals would have more variance than playing single-handed at $1.25/hand.”

I stand by what I wrote earlier. And no, I did not take things out of context.



You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.

Variance in DOLLARS is as follows:

Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round > Single line at $1.25 total wager per round.

Generally speaking for variance in terms of money:

When you are betting the same amount per LINE, then more lines equals more variance. (e.g. dollar 100-play has more variance than dollar single line in terms of money.)

When you are betting the same total bet per ROUND of play, then more lines equal less variance. (e.g. dollar single line has more variance than penny 100-play in terms of money.)
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 10:53:20 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Last time I was in Biloxi, there were 98% and even 99% games available, even at the 25c level. VPFree2 says they are still there.

Also, do you fly Allegiant out of SFB? Their fares are often quite low, and I have contemplated taking that flight, but Sanford is a bit of a trek for me from Jax. They don't have the best schedule, and Allegiant isn't for everyone, but that's the closest direct flight to GPT for me.

Hope you and the Mrs. enjoy your trip!

We have been playing video poker in Biloxi for nearly 20 years. There was a time when 9/6 Jacks or Better was common in Biloxi. Today, 97% are the default quarter games. The Gulf View casino in Gulfport used to have 99.5% games at the bar in the back. They have been downgraded. The IP has a few 98.9% quarter deuces wild machines. If you wish to move up to dollar games, the odds get better. Keep in mind that Mississippi has a 3% State gambling tax with no loss offset. I wouldn't get too excited about VPfree2.com. We have found their information shaky at best.

The Beau Rivage is different. All the games are 97%, even in the high limit room. We feel like the round trip airfare, three nights lodging and points are worth around $1,000. The trick with them is to play enough so they invite you back but not so much you overpay. We play 2-3 hours each morning and 2-3 hours each night at the Beau. We play single line quarter Deuces Wild with 5 coins at a time. The rest of the time, we casino hop around town. We also rent a car and drive down to the Silver Slipper in Bay St. Louis. If we grow tired of VP, we drive to New Orleans.

The great thing about MLife is they are the only casino group that lets us both play on the same card. This makes us look like a bigger player than playing alone. One of us normally hits a royal in Biloxi. My wife is on a roll right now. She hit two $1,000 royals on the same machine in Tampa a few days ago.

The Beau charters Sun Country Airlines out of St. Pete. The Sanford trip was sold out.
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 15, 2020
EVBandit
EVBandit
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 20
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
January 15th, 2020 at 11:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.



He contradicted himself. Therefore, I don’t need to follow your flawed logic.

“Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round”

That reads like an opinion and I don’t debate opinions. If you understand the different of N-Play (Moody’s patent) and multi-line video poker without covariance, then we might have a conversation.

Obviously my earlier explanation went over your head. One hand at $3.75 is no different than 3 independent hands at $1.25 at the same time, respectively, other things being equal.
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 15th, 2020 at 4:47:24 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You misread what he wrote, imo. I understood exactly what he meant there the first time he wrote it.

Variance in DOLLARS is as follows:

Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round > Single line at $1.25 total wager per round.

Generally speaking for variance in terms of money:

When you are betting the same amount per LINE, then more lines equals more variance. (e.g. dollar 100-play has more variance than dollar single line in terms of money.)

When you are betting the same total bet per ROUND of play, then more lines equal less variance. (e.g. dollar single line has more variance than penny 100-play in terms of money.)



Thanks! I think that's what I was trying to get across, but I only said the first part in the way I intended to.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EVBandit
EVBandit
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 20
Joined: Nov 8, 2019
January 21st, 2020 at 11:06:37 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Thanks! I think that's what I was trying to get across, but I only said the first part in the way I intended to.



Mission146, I told you not to play games.

Part I
tringlomane's post makes it clear s/he is clueless about variance in VP. The OP asked about variance. Misson146 answered the post about variance. I corrected Mission146's mistake about variance when applied to multi-games. Then tringlomane introduces variance in DOLLARS, which was never a part of the original conversation amongst the three persons involved; and, by the way tringlomane is still wrong.

It's clear to me tringlomane (based on his/her post) is logic challenged or video-poker theory challenged or both.

I will start with how denomination does not affect variance. Supposed you played computer perfect VP on 9/6 JoB. The variance for 9/6 JoB doesn't change because you decided to play $0.05 vs $0.10 vs $0.25, etc different denomination. It doesn't matter what denomination you play, the variance of the game didn't change. If you played $10,000 of action in nickels or $10,000 of action in dollar machines, the variance ought to be the same.

Therefore tringlomane' comment "Variance in DOLLARS is as follows: Single Line at $3.75 total wager per round > Triple play at $3.75 total wager per round" is patently wrong. tringlomane clearly doesn't get this point based on his/her comment.

My point is something has to change to CAUSE the variance of the game to change under the standard of computer perfect play.

Part II
So let's look at what DOES CHANGE VARIANCE in a video poker game. Again, the standard is computer perfect play for 9/6 JoB.

The first thing is strategy deviations:
- keeping a pat flush over 4 to the Royal Flush will cause the variance of the game to drop (the EV must also decline since you are now playing sub-optimally)
- going for a Royal Flush with a 3-card Royal vs High Pair (JJ, QQ, KK, AA) will cause the variance of the game to increase (the EV will also decline).

Playing short coins with computer perfect play will cause variance to decline.

Moody's patent on N-Play or Triple Play introduces covariance, aka co-movement in statistics so the variance DID CHANGE, in fact the variance of the game under computer perfect play INCREASED (other things beings equal).

Part III
In the absence of things that causes the variance to change, why would the (DOLLAR) variance of a $3.75 wager on a single line game be LARGER than a single game of Triple Play (also at the same $3.75 wager for the same game using computer perfect play)? It just makes no sense in light of the fact Triple Play has an "covariance effect".

Again, the key point is the SAME $3.75 is being wagered in both situation. tringlomane's argument is SOMEHOW the $3.75 single line WILL MAGICALLY result in more DOLLAR VARIANCE than a $3.75 wager on Triple Play (other things being equal)?

Simply unbelievable. This is why I don't like to play games or engage in gamesmanship.
SingleCoinVP
SingleCoinVP
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 253
Joined: Aug 31, 2019
January 22nd, 2020 at 3:48:19 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

Playing short coins with computer perfect play will cause variance to decline.

The reason is the strategy changes. If you play single coin using perfect max coin strategy, it will cost you more. Playing single coin is not now and never was a winning video poker strategy. In any case, playing negative video poker games is a loser. The greater your coin-in, the more you lose. It's up to you to decide how much.

It's cold in Florida right now. Outside my home in Central Florida the temp is 33 degrees, feels like 22. Believe it or not, they issued a "Falling Iguana Warning" in Miami. And you thought snow was bad!
Last edited by: SingleCoinVP on Jan 22, 2020
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4655
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
Thanked by
Mission146tringlomane
January 22nd, 2020 at 5:06:36 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit


Part III
In the absence of things that causes the variance to change, why would the (DOLLAR) variance of a $3.75 wager on a single line game be LARGER than a single game of Triple Play (also at the same $3.75 wager for the same game using computer perfect play)? It just makes no sense in light of the fact Triple Play has an "covariance effect".

Again, the key point is the SAME $3.75 is being wagered in both situation. tringlomane's argument is SOMEHOW the $3.75 single line WILL MAGICALLY result in more DOLLAR VARIANCE than a $3.75 wager on Triple Play (other things being equal)?

Simply unbelievable. This is why I don't like to play games or engage in gamesmanship.



First your posts are completely off putting.

Second the above does not make sense to me, but maybe I do not understand the setup.

Here’s my read of this example:

Play one hand of single line VP for $3.75.

Play one hand of triple play (really three co-varied hands because the initial five card deal is the same cards and only the drawing cards might differ) for $1.25 a hand for a total of $3.75 of the three lines.

Correct?

If so, the triple play will have the lower variance (in $ outcomes). The triple play will have higher variance than playing three hands of single line at $1.25 because of the positive covariance of the triple play hands. But lower variance (in $ outcome terms) than one hand of single line at $3.75.

That’s just elementary math. I won’t go so far as to call you math challenged like you did to tringlomane, since I think that would constitute a personal insult.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Jamespatrick12
Jamespatrick12
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 11
Joined: Nov 18, 2019
January 22nd, 2020 at 5:45:02 AM permalink
Yes the chance is more high in my opinion.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 24th, 2020 at 5:18:56 AM permalink
Quote: EVBandit

tringlomane's post makes it clear s/he is clueless about variance in VP.



Personal insult, three-day suspension.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 24th, 2020 at 5:48:41 AM permalink
I am getting a headache trying to figure out what is in dispute here. It would be nice if somebody asked a down to earth question. In fact, I will:

1: What is the total variance of playing 500 hands at $1 per bet per hand on 5-play Jacks or Better?
2. What is the total variance of playing 100 hands at $5 per bet per hand on 1-play Jacks or Better?

Please note that $500 total is bet in both cases. By a "hand," I mean the number of hands you see on the screen. For example, in 5-play one plays 5 hands at a time.

Quote: SingleCoinVP

The best quarter Deuces Wild game at my local casino is 97% at max coins. This same game is offered in triple play. I realize there is a cost to play these games. I have heard playing triple play games lowers the variance. Does this mean my daily bankroll will last longer? Does triple play affect the house edge or the long term results? Will I need a triple bankroll to play these games?



The question is a bit vague. Triple Play lowers variance only if compared to making the same total bet per ROUND. For example, making a single $25 bet on 1-play has more variance than five $5 bets on 5-play.

However, I tend to think that is not what the OP is asking. Playing 1,000 hands at $1 per hand on 1-play has less variance than 1,000 hands at $1 per hand on 5-play. Assuming the same pay table, the house edge is the same. Let's not even muddy the water with the bankroll part.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 24th, 2020 at 11:56:38 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



The question is a bit vague. Triple Play lowers variance only if compared to making the same total bet per ROUND. For example, making a single $25 bet on 1-play has more variance than five $5 bets on 5-play.



Thank you! That's all I was saying about three-play v. single-line on the same TOTAL amount bet. Out of $3.75 (if such a thing existed) for single-line and $3.75 (three lines * 1.25/line) the latter would have less variance.

Again, I admit that my phrasing was really bad on the second part, but I feel like the first part was pretty clear, especially after I clarified my meaning. I really don't see anything particularly controversial with my statement.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 24th, 2020 at 12:00:45 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

First your posts are completely off putting.

Second the above does not make sense to me, but maybe I do not understand the setup.

Here’s my read of this example:

Play one hand of single line VP for $3.75.

Play one hand of triple play (really three co-varied hands because the initial five card deal is the same cards and only the drawing cards might differ) for $1.25 a hand for a total of $3.75 of the three lines.

Correct?

If so, the triple play will have the lower variance (in $ outcomes). The triple play will have higher variance than playing three hands of single line at $1.25 because of the positive covariance of the triple play hands. But lower variance (in $ outcome terms) than one hand of single line at $3.75.

That’s just elementary math. I won’t go so far as to call you math challenged like you did to tringlomane, since I think that would constitute a personal insult.



Thank you also.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
tringlomane
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6281
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
Thanked by
Mission146
January 24th, 2020 at 3:43:53 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

First your posts are completely off putting.

Second the above does not make sense to me, but maybe I do not understand the setup.

Here’s my read of this example:

Play one hand of single line VP for $3.75.

Play one hand of triple play (really three co-varied hands because the initial five card deal is the same cards and only the drawing cards might differ) for $1.25 a hand for a total of $3.75 of the three lines.

Correct?

If so, the triple play will have the lower variance (in $ outcomes). The triple play will have higher variance than playing three hands of single line at $1.25 because of the positive covariance of the triple play hands. But lower variance (in $ outcome terms) than one hand of single line at $3.75.

That’s just elementary math. I won’t go so far as to call you math challenged like you did to tringlomane, since I think that would constitute a personal insult.



Yes, that was the argument that I was trying to make because I thought that was the argument Mission146 was trying to make. It wasn't dealing with the points that EVBandit was trying to make. I was only trying to clarify what point Mission146 was trying to make. I may have done poorly in that regard. But I didn't really want to do actual math to show it because I like being lazy. Lol

Quote: Wizard

I am getting a headache trying to figure out what is in dispute here. It would be nice if somebody asked a down to earth question. In fact, I will:

1: What is the total variance of playing 500 hands at $1 per bet per hand on 5-play Jacks or Better?
2. What is the total variance of playing 100 hands at $5 per bet per hand on 1-play Jacks or Better?

Please note that $500 total is bet in both cases. By a "hand," I mean the number of hands you see on the screen. For example, in 5-play one plays 5 hands at a time.



The question is a bit vague. Triple Play lowers variance only if compared to making the same total bet per ROUND. For example, making a single $25 bet on 1-play has more variance than five $5 bets on 5-play.

However, I tend to think that is not what the OP is asking. Playing 1,000 hands at $1 per hand on 1-play has less variance than 1,000 hands at $1 per hand on 5-play. Assuming the same pay table, the house edge is the same. Let's not even muddy the water with the bankroll part.



Yes, the part I bolded was the main part of my argument. I was just trying to clarify to EVBandit that is what Mission146 was trying to say in the first place. That's all, nothing more.

---------------------------------

And just for a math reminder, answering your #1 and #2 in the thread might be a good thing.

Variance in bets taken from here for 9/6 JoB:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/

#1: (5-line play/500 total hands): (27.380241) x 500 x ($1)^2 = $13,690

#2: (1-line play/100 total hands): (19.514676) x 100 x ($5)^2 = $48,787

I believe this is correct for the example questions. Someone please correct me if I made an error in applying the math.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
January 24th, 2020 at 5:02:25 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

That’s just elementary math. I won’t go so far as to call you math challenged like you did to tringlomane, since I think that would constitute a personal insult.



That doesn't fool me. Three-day suspension for personal insult.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
tringlomaneSanchoPanzaCrystalMathMission146Forager
January 24th, 2020 at 5:11:06 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

#1: (5-line play/500 total hands): (27.380241) x 500 x ($1)^2 = $13,690

#2: (1-line play/100 total hands): (19.514676) x 100 x ($5)^2 = $48,787



I agree. I hope this proves the point that if you can break one big bet on single line VP into multiple smaller bets (per hand) in multi-play, then you should, assuming the same pay table and total bet per deal/round. As far as I know, nobody is disagreeing with that here.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teddys
teddys
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 5529
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
November 22nd, 2021 at 8:28:40 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: EVBandit

tringlomane's post makes it clear s/he is clueless about variance in VP.



Personal insult, three-day suspension.
link to original post



Will EVBandit ever be unbanned? S/he/they has some very knowledgeable insights re: machine play.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
  • Jump to: