7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1937
November 28th, 2019 at 11:27:11 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Strangely, most of my Royals have come from holding three, not four cards, but the number of three hold hands occurs far more often.

as it should.
my last 10 Royals were:
holding 0: 1 (deuces wild, threw all cards away and it came in diamonds)
holding 1: 0
holding 2: 1 (deuces wild progressive at Plaza)
holding 3: 8 (all hearts or clubs)
holding 4 : 0
holding 5 : 0 (has never happened and I am 63, been playing since 21)

I take a pic of every 4oak or higher and 4ttR
I used to get the 5th Royal card, but no more (in last 3 years)
I get a straight sometimes, no flushes and no Royals from the 4ttR deal
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 273
November 29th, 2019 at 8:22:01 PM permalink
Quote: drrock

You guys are off by a factor of 5. <snip>
940 / 2598960 = 0.00036168 or 1 in 2764.85106 hands.

So four to the royal is dealt 235 (or 47 x 5) times more often than a dealt royal.
<snip>



drrock,

You are correct... That's what I get for posting before coffee :-(

Dog Hand
drrock
drrock
Joined: Mar 6, 2012
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 42
November 29th, 2019 at 10:22:36 PM permalink
Hey Dog, no problem. We got to the right answer eventually. That's what these blogs are for. I'm sort of interested in what the original poster wanted the information for. I don't think we have heard back on that.

And you are lucky if coffee is all it takes! ;)
sockobuw
sockobuw
Joined: Nov 27, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 3
November 30th, 2019 at 8:59:05 PM permalink
I was playing 0.25 15 play jacks or better and running terribly, losing at a rate of about 3.5%. I was over 4,000 hands dealt into the play (60,000 total hands played) and had not had a dealt 4oak or 4 to the royal. The analysis was to help assure myself I was just running cold and not playing badly. 4 to the royal didn't really mean much to the analysis, but just wanted to know how badly it was going compared to expectation to have 1/47 cracks at the royal. The last 40,000 hands (2,667 deals) it came back around and I ran extremely hot. I was dealt 4oak twice, and 4 to the royal 4 times. I converted on 3 of the 4. It did wonders for my psyche as I was playing a promotion for status, but it was supposed to be just under break even. This was my first time playing that many hands and I had underestimated the variance a bit. even with 15 runouts you can't make good hands out of dogshit.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 6039
December 1st, 2019 at 12:13:42 AM permalink
Quote: sockobuw

I was playing 0.25 15 play jacks or better and running terribly, losing at a rate of about 3.5%. I was over 4,000 hands dealt into the play (60,000 total hands played) and had not had a dealt 4oak or 4 to the royal. The analysis was to help assure myself I was just running cold and not playing badly. 4 to the royal didn't really mean much to the analysis, but just wanted to know how badly it was going compared to expectation to have 1/47 cracks at the royal. The last 40,000 hands (2,667 deals) it came back around and I ran extremely hot. I was dealt 4oak twice, and 4 to the royal 4 times. I converted on 3 of the 4. It did wonders for my psyche as I was playing a promotion for status, but it was supposed to be just under break even. This was my first time playing that many hands and I had underestimated the variance a bit. even with 15 runouts you can't make good hands out of dogshit.



Going 4000 deals without any four to a royal deal should be about 23.67%.
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 1461
December 1st, 2019 at 9:08:37 AM permalink
Quote: sockobuw

I was playing 0.25 15 play jacks or better and running terribly, losing at a rate of about 3.5%. I was over 4,000 hands dealt into the play (60,000 total hands played) and had not had a dealt 4oak or 4 to the royal. The analysis was to help assure myself I was just running cold and not playing badly.



How can you blame the deal on playing badly? Just curious.
sockobuw
sockobuw
Joined: Nov 27, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 3
Thanks for this post from:
michael99000
December 1st, 2019 at 9:06:14 PM permalink
reread the statement.

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