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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:05:36 AM permalink
Quote: RS

If I could generate $5k in FP and it cost me $2k in EV......and someone is offering to sell $5k in FP for $4k......guess which offer I'm going to take.


BOTH


And we all damn well know that just because we can generate $3k in EV on a play it doesn't mean we should avoid every other play where the EV is lower. It'd be stupid to only play the highest EV thing. As long as the play meets my threshold of "worthiness" (hourly/monthly EV, risk, ease), then I'm going to play it.

this post was almost brilliant nice spoiler I had a good laugh.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:06:22 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

I agree.

RMS and Axel are saying they are willing to BUY freeplay from you for 99.5% of its value

I wouldn't pay more than 50%



THEY DID NOT SAY THAT AT ALL! What Axel said is that there might be a SPECIFIC circumstance in which he would do that. He even laid out a specific example!

I am not an AP, and have never bought or sold free play. But if it is 'regular' freeplay which is only exposed to the house edge once, and usable at VP machines, then its EV is somewhere in the high 90's%. So darkoz, you are telling me that if someone has $1000 in free play, and you trust that there are no shenanigans, and you will be going to that casino anyways, that you wouldn't pay the guy $600 for that $1000 in free play? Is that what you really are saying?

Edit.... I answered before reading downthread. Dark, I understand that you feel you can earn the free play on different plays cheaper than 50%, so that is why you picked that number. But why can't you do both? My above example would ADD around $350 in EV to whatever other plays you are already doing. You have not provided a cogent reason why you don't want that extra $350 in your pocket.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:09:34 AM permalink
Quote: SingleCoinVP

I find the discussion of free play buying and selling interesting. If someone offered me $500 for my free play, I wouldn't have sold it. I would have always wondered what I could have won on my own. I have seen people at the Tampa casino win more than $500 in free play numerous times. I once sat next to a lady who won a car. The problem with drawings is you must be there when they call your name. The bigger drawings are held late at night when I'm in bed.

Now that's some solid thinking right there.

I guess I better point out that is sarcasm or DO might actually agree with me again and show his real AP skills and knowledge.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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Thanks for this post from:
ForagerDRich
September 4th, 2019 at 4:16:10 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz



But then I seem to think outside the box for most of you guys so who knows

You should probably start with thinking outside the BUS.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:18:36 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Now that's some solid thinking right there.

I guess I better point out that is sarcasm or DO might actually agree with me again and show his real AP skills and knowledge.



Yeesh, I am glad you did.

I had my finger on the quote button ready to go :)
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
darkoz 
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:27:47 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

THEY DID NOT SAY THAT AT ALL! What Axel said is that there might be a SPECIFIC circumstance in which he would do that. He even laid out a specific example!

I am not an AP, and have never bought or sold free play. But if it is 'regular' freeplay which is only exposed to the house edge once, and usable at VP machines, then its EV is somewhere in the high 90's%. So darkoz, you are telling me that if someone has $1000 in free play, and you trust that there are no shenanigans, and you will be going to that casino anyways, that you wouldn't pay the guy $600 for that $1000 in free play? Is that what you really are saying?

Edit.... I answered before reading downthread. Dark, I understand that you feel you can earn the free play on different plays cheaper than 50%, so that is why you picked that number. But why can't you do both? My above example would ADD around $350 in EV to whatever other plays you are already doing. You have not provided a cogent reason why you don't want that extra $350 in your pocket.



I suppose if it was a really close friend and I knew he wss desperate for some fast guaranteed cash I might buy it off him. But that is on the personal favor front.

I gave my reasoning about 3 posts ago but maybe you skipped over it.

I can take the money I would spend on thst extra $350 in my pocket and generate a higher amount of freeplay turning what would have been ONLY an extra $350 into perhaps $700 or $800 extra.

Certainly none of you guys would do this in the world outside of the casinos.

You own a cow and can generate $1000 in milk for $100. Your neighbor wants to sell you $1000 in milk for $500. You think to yourself "well, I can always use milk. No point in turning it down." Or do you say to your neighbor, "Thanks for the offer but I can generate my own milk for a lot cheaper."
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
RS
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Thanks for this post from:
Forager
September 4th, 2019 at 4:37:07 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Why would I make such a purchase of freeplay just because its there when I can get so much more out of my capital bankroll by investing it more wisely?


I honestly can't tell if you're being serious with all this nonsense or just yanking our chains. Although I do enjoy all the "casinos fear me" stuff. Shades of ZenKing.
RS
RS
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You own a cow and can generate $1000 in milk for $100. Your neighbor wants to sell you $1000 in milk for $500. You think to yourself "well, I can always use milk. No point in turning it down." Or do you say to your neighbor, "Thanks for the offer but I can generate my own milk for a lot cheaper."


You buy the milk then sell it for $1,000.
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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September 4th, 2019 at 4:44:16 AM permalink
Quote: RS

You buy the milk then sell it for $1,000.



Yuck.

The smart move is take the $500, generate 5x the milk yourself and sell that for $5000.

I seriously cant believe you guys cant get this concept.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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September 4th, 2019 at 5:01:09 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: RS

If I could generate $5k in FP and it cost me $2k in EV......and someone is offering to sell $5k in FP for $4k......guess which offer I'm going to take.


BOTH


And we all damn well know that just because we can generate $3k in EV on a play it doesn't mean we should avoid every other play where the EV is lower. It'd be stupid to only play the highest EV thing. As long as the play meets my threshold of "worthiness" (hourly/monthly EV, risk, ease), then I'm going to play it.



Holy crap!

I really am operating on a higher level than my fellow AP's.

If I can generate $3k in ev on a play and someone offers me $1k ev on a play, I am not going to accept it.

Instead I will generate the same offers he has myself and save me $2000!!!

I cant believe serious AP's on here are actually suggesting that paying $2000 MORE for an item than they need to (freeplay in this case) is wise advantage gambling.

Now I truly understand why it took myself to put fear into the casinos

To put it another way,

Rather than pay $4000 for a $1k advantage I could now put that $4000 into DOUBLE the offers (generating $10,000 in freeplay)

Why would I make such a purchase of freeplay just because its there when I can get so much more out of my capital bankroll by investing it more wisely?

So you're telling me that you have your entire bankroll capital invested at once?

I could see if one were in a situation where they didn't have the time to waist on a lesser ROI. You clearly have time to waste.

You put fear in the casinos because you're playing on multiple players cards that don't belong to you(as I said before, that might actually be considered a crime in some jurisdictions even if it's not, the casino's considerate to me sometimes ). At first look, for all they know those cards and pin numbers are stolen, or you're in on some scam with a casino employee, or they think you're doing something sketchy or illegal .
We all know what the casinos intentions are when they send free play. They want to get THAT player back in the door. Casinos will be pissed off if someone was using multiple cards even if it was just a measly $5 in freeplay.

A a fierce AP would be one who uses logic understands that could be wrong and hard fast rules should be avoided for the most part. And, instead of arguing against something they don't really grasp.... they would be asking themselves if they were possibly missing something valuable. The try to learn in hopes that they could add that stuff to their arsenal so they can grab as much money and value as they could when and if those opportunities presented themselves.

It seems like your style of play is to walk past 15 twenty dollar bills laying on the ground so you can get to a $100 bill.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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