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Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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October 30th, 2017 at 12:11:41 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I run the worst on DW when vulturing it.

This was my story for the longest time... Then I vultured a 10 play $1 deuces wild game with numerous multipliers... Got dealt 3 deuces, and hit 4 deuces on one of the hands, along with a bunch of other awesome hands (of course) for a hand pay. I think that puts me up on vulturing DW for a little while =).

Again, congrats to Ken on a very impressive performance. I'm intrigued about our new challenger, claiming ~1900 hands per hour would also be quite the feat! I'm eager to see how that one plays out.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 31st, 2017 at 10:02:05 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Put the emphasis on, FAR BETTER, that's a difference of more than five bets, in terms of EV, on any 200-25-etc playtable. Going for the natural is nothing short of a tremendous mistake. Now, in the sense of how frequently you're going to see that specific opportunity, which isn't really worth it to me to figure out just for this purpose, it wouldn't detract a TON from your overall EV, I wouldn't think. Maybe a few thousandths of a percent to as much as one or two hundreths, something like that...



Far better?

Wild Royal pay 25
Royal pays 800
Odds of getting the royal on the draw, 1/47 * 800 = 17.021
Odds of getting a deuce on the draw 3/47 * 25 = 1.597 (the three remaining dues)
Odds of getting a flush on the draw 7/47 * 3 = .446 (3 to 9 suited)
Odds of getting a straight on the draw 3/47 * 2 = .128 (the missing card to the royal in another suit)
Odds of busting out 33 / 47 = (3 3-9s = 21 + 4 face cards not matching the missing card in alternate suits).

Total return on drawing = 19.191

You are looking at a 5.809 unit difference on something that happens once in every 32,487 deals. (80/2598960). I will take the 0.017879% I give up in HA for the variance any day**

**Except in Multi-Strike where I take the wild royal level 1 because it breaks my heart to get a Royal at the 1x bet.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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October 31st, 2017 at 10:42:21 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo


You are looking at a 5.809 unit difference on something that happens once in every 32,487 deals. (80/2598960). I will take the 0.017879% I give up in HA for the variance any day**


And the next thing you know you are going for 4 deuces when you are dealt a hand like 222KK.
Then you start going for the 4 deuces when you have hands like 222AsQs.
Might as well forget the penalty cards because they are a pain in the ass to look for.
Perhaps you will start holding As10s because you might make a Royal.
What the hell, just forget about the inside straights and redraw the hand since the most you can win holding an inside straight draw is 10 coins.

Why even play full pay when you can get variance on any old game?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
BobDancer
BobDancer
Joined: Jun 22, 2013
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October 31st, 2017 at 10:46:29 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo



Wild Royal pay 25
Royal pays 800
Odds of getting the royal on the draw, 1/47 * 800 = 17.021
Odds of getting a deuce on the draw 3/47 * 25 = 1.597 (the three remaining dues)
Odds of getting a flush on the draw 7/47 * 3 = .446 (3 to 9 suited)
Odds of getting a straight on the draw 3/47 * 2 = .128 (the missing card to the royal in another suit)
Odds of busting out 33 / 47 = (3 3-9s = 21 + 4 face cards not matching the missing card in alternate suits).

Total return on drawing = 19.191



While I would never play that way, i don't challenge your conclusion as to what you would do. It is a "personal preference" and you seem to be willing to pay the price in order to get the excitement of a royal flush draw.

Your math assumed flushes pay 3-for-1 --- which is true in the game you play but not in the FPDW video you saw.

Your math assumed that it wasn't the suited ace that was missing --- that would give you a straight flush draw and a bigger straight draw.

I didn't check the rest of your math. I figure things in terms of five coins rather than one coin --- but your numbers seem about right given that translation. I don't figure these things will affect your decision. You seem to be locked in on going for the royal.

As it happens, my blog today is about a variation on this subject --- although phrased in terms of Jacks or Better rather than Deuces Wild. Depending on the stakes you play, it provides a MUCH stronger reason to keep the wild royal rather than tossing the deuce in situations like we're talking about here. https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/be-careful-what-you-wish-for/

If you wish to agree or disagree on that site or this one, you're welcome to.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 31st, 2017 at 11:10:28 AM permalink
It looks like somebody will try to beat the single-machine speed tomorrow. I don't say the time or location because he doesn't want a crowd. I'll let you know tomorrow how it goes.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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October 31st, 2017 at 12:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Perhaps you will start holding As10s because you might make a Royal.


NSUD:
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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October 31st, 2017 at 1:26:41 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

And the next thing you know you are going for 4 deuces when you are dealt a hand like 222KK.
Then you start going for the 4 deuces when you have hands like 222AsQs.
Might as well forget the penalty cards because they are a pain in the ass to look for.
Perhaps you will start holding As10s because you might make a Royal.
What the hell, just forget about the inside straights and redraw the hand since the most you can win holding an inside straight draw is 10 coins.

Why even play full pay when you can get variance on any old game?



Yes it is a slippery slope. For me the 800-1 win means I leave the machine and go do something else.

But you are absolutely right. I am not saying my play is optimal.

It's not like there is a FPDW machine within an hour of here or anything that pays over 98%. Which means, really, I shouldn't play at all if I want to be AP. The only AP VP at the casinos I attend is the UX vulturing which I see 7-8 people do once a day (and I do as well).

And even if not full-pay it's not an excuse for not playing optimally.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
BTLWI
BTLWI
Joined: Nov 6, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
DDB
October 31st, 2017 at 6:49:37 PM permalink
I would guess it's easily beatable. Am I the only be person that didn't think the video was that fast?
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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October 31st, 2017 at 6:57:00 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

I would guess it's easily beatable. Am I the only be person that didn't think the video was that fast?


I thought it was just me but I didn't think it looked that fast either,but definitely faster than I play.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
BobDancer
BobDancer
Joined: Jun 22, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKintMaxPen
October 31st, 2017 at 8:02:39 PM permalink
Quote: BTLWI

I would guess it's easily beatable. Am I the only be person that didn't think the video was that fast?



The thing I noticed was there were no "false starts." I find I sometimes change my mind and have to un-hold and then re-hold. That takes a lot longer.

The other thing I noticed was that when four cards needed to be held, he held them all "at once." I tend to hold them one at a time. Rapidly, to be sure. But one at a time rapidly is not as fast as all at once.

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