100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 26th, 2017 at 4:43:00 PM permalink
Lets say you have 2 games close in Return but a huge difference in Variance.

Variance of $2 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%): 19.51
Variance of $2 9/7 Triple double bonus (99.58%) : 98.28

If $50k coin-in (for DiaD):
Expected loss 9/6 JoB = -$230 +/- $3123
Expected loss 9/7 tdb = -$210 +/- $7010

And that's just 1 standard deviation (for 68% chance your play falls in that range).
if 2 SD (for 95% of all possible results), double it.

ie: 9/7 tdb = -$210 +/- $14k for 2 sd

Most people would sacrifice the .04% return and pick 9/6 JoB over 9/7 tdb.
But at what point is it worth picking the higher variance game?

For example:
Multistrike (9/6 JoB) is 99.79% with Variance = 308

Is .25% better return but 16x the variance of regular JoB worth it?

Is there a sweet spot or a rule of thumb for Return vs Variance when deciding on which game to play?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
billryan
billryan
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May 26th, 2017 at 4:55:58 PM permalink
I'll let someone else do the math and approach this from a different angle. Playing TDB, you will lose more often and lose more per visit.
Most casinos seem to reward cashback in mailings at least partially for what you lose, so a person who has four sessions in a month of -1000,-1000,-1000, + 2700 will get much more cashback than someone who does -150, +200, -200,-150 even though in the end they each lost $300 for the month, and had the same coin in.
Bigger losses seems to equal bigger mailings.
I know that doesn't answer your question but helps explain why a higher variance game is better, IF you are properly funded.
Last edited by: billryan on May 26, 2017
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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May 26th, 2017 at 8:42:49 PM permalink
Personally I'd do the JoB because I can get it done much faster as the strategy is easy and I wouldn't spend time thinking about (or looking up) the proper play. That and the variance certainly.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
RS
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May 26th, 2017 at 10:54:41 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Lets say you have 2 games close in Return but a huge difference in Variance.

Variance of $2 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%): 19.51
Variance of $2 9/7 Triple double bonus (99.58%) : 98.28

If $50k coin-in (for DiaD):
Expected loss 9/6 JoB = -$230 +/- $3123
Expected loss 9/7 tdb = -$210 +/- $7010

And that's just 1 standard deviation (for 68% chance your play falls in that range).
if 2 SD (for 95% of all possible results), double it.

ie: 9/7 tdb = -$210 +/- $14k for 2 sd

Most people would sacrifice the .04% return and pick 9/6 JoB over 9/7 tdb.
But at what point is it worth picking the higher variance game?

For example:
Multistrike (9/6 JoB) is 99.79% with Variance = 308

Is .25% better return but 16x the variance of regular JoB worth it?

Is there a sweet spot or a rule of thumb for Return vs Variance when deciding on which game to play?


There isn't really a "rule of thumb" for this. Maybe for each individual there is, to roughly estimate it for yourself, but not in general. With many things in gambling and much in life in general -- it depends.

If someone has a $20k bankroll and someone else has $2M bankroll, they might have very different answers for the same play.

I'd rather play something around $10-25 a spin and get the play over with in 1-3 hours, while someone else (say, MaxPen for example) would rather play $0.05 single line for 22 hours straight (inside joke!)....and the decision has nothing to do with bankroll. If giving up 0.2% means I'm done in 1 hour instead of 5.....looks like I'm gonna be giving up 0.2% for the play. If giving up 0.2% means I'll cut my variance in half, then I'll be giving up 0.2% on the play. Sometimes I'll give up more and sometimes I wouldn't be able to afford to give up that amount.


One way to determine which is better is to calculate the CE: Certainty Equivalent. That's actually probably the easiest and best way to get a good answer on this. Anything else is speculation and making an educated guess.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 27th, 2017 at 1:20:36 AM permalink
Quote: RS

One way to determine which is better is to calculate the CE: Certainty Equivalent. That's actually probably the easiest and best way to get a good answer on this. Anything else is speculation and making an educated guess.


whats the Formula?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
RS
RS
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May 27th, 2017 at 2:02:18 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: RS

One way to determine which is better is to calculate the CE: Certainty Equivalent. That's actually probably the easiest and best way to get a good answer on this. Anything else is speculation and making an educated guess.


whats the Formula?


https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/math-behind-advantage-play/

EV-( (bet size*Standard Deviation)^2)/(2*Kelly factory*BR)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 27th, 2017 at 3:58:56 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Variance of $2 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54%): 19.51
Variance of $2 9/7 Triple double bonus (99.58%) : 98.28

I might want better variance at times than JoB gives but I would dislike playing a game with variance of 98 'just about no matter what. '
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:10:25 AM permalink
Quote: RS

https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/math-behind-advantage-play/

EV-( (bet size*Standard Deviation)^2)/(2*Kelly factory*BR)


thx.
I read in bj, if Kelly = 1/2 = 50% = .5 then you have 0.1% probability of losing 90% of bankroll.

what to use in VP?
same?

For example, using BankRoll = 125% of 1 sd for each game:
CE ($2 9/6 JoB for 5k hands <$50k coin-in>)= -$230 - (($10*4.42)^2)/(2*.5*$4000) = -$230.49
CE ($2 9/7 tdb for 5k hands <$50k coin-in>) = -$210 - (($10*9.91)^2)/(2*.5*$9000) = -$211.09
CE ($0.50 Multistrike (9/6 JoB) for 5k hands <$50k coin-in>) = -$105 - ($10*17.55)^2/(2*.5*$15500) = -$106.99

if my math is right, Multistrike even with it's HUGE variance is the better game to play since I lose the least?

hm.. lets see what happens if I used a fixed bankroll (ie: $4k) for all.
ce (JoB) = -$230.49
ce (tdb) = -212.46
ce (multistrike) = -112.7

Multistrike still wins?
so Return is king and variance means little?!

Or am I doing something wrong?
If so, WHAT?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on May 27, 2017
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:50:16 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I might want better variance at times than JoB gives but I would dislike playing a game with variance of 98 'just about no matter what. '


I never knew the variance of Multistrike was sooooooooooooo high (even JoB variety) till I created this thread.

no wonder I lost $1400 quick at $0.50 denom as if I was in a full nude strip bar that served free alcohol.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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May 27th, 2017 at 7:19:48 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

casinos reward in mailings for what you lose, so Bigger losses equal bigger mailings.

True, but mailings are frosting on the cake. A mailing is good, a really generous mailing is better, if MY mailing is better than YOURS I may feel that "I've won" against you. If my mailing is better than it otherwise would be, I may feel like "I've won" against the casino's computerized mailing program. Perhaps I have won against the casino's mailing program, but any way you look at it what really counts is what takes place in the casino.

So it takes a fully funded 'staying power' to be able to outlast that variance factor and receive the enhanced mailing.

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