Poll

6 votes (21.42%)
12 votes (42.85%)
12 votes (42.85%)
1 vote (3.57%)
2 votes (7.14%)
4 votes (14.28%)
7 votes (25%)
3 votes (10.71%)
2 votes (7.14%)
3 votes (10.71%)

28 members have voted

rsactuary
rsactuary
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2315
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
April 3rd, 2017 at 8:55:10 AM permalink
it can be if (sum of outstanding multipliers) > (# of hands x 2)
mamat
mamat
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 494
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
April 3rd, 2017 at 10:52:37 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

is it still +ev to play max bet with abandoned multipliers till no more multipliers?

That's not so good. Lots of hands with multipliers are -EV. One reason this game is currently VERY nice to vulture (even in high competition areas) is that non-mathematician vultures (and copycats) haven't figured out how to play (They sometimes use simple rules like "only play 10x-12x's").

Look at
(1) current multipliers: If 2.1-2.2x or higher, play. If 2.0x-2.1x or lower, look at #2.
(2) sequence of multipliers: Looking at the current hand and next 1-4 hands combined, do any of the four combined averages reach 2.1x-2.2x or higher? If so, play.
e.g. The current hand is 1.6x, but the next hand is 3.0x, so the average of two hands is 2.3x...so play 2 hands.
(3) If both #1 & #2 are both 2.0x-2.1x or lower, don't play & look at another game.

This isn't quite accurate, as stacks of 3-4 multipliers have a higher chance to be converted to 12x's if you land a good hand.
Thus, there is probably a lower profitable level to play with large stacks of multipliers on a 10-play.
...possibly 1.6x-2.1x. I don't know exactly where.

Would be interesting if someone wanted to do the analysis...

It is really fun on this game to get dealt trips or higher. Sometimes you get sequences of multipliers which go on quite long (10-20 hands).
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2017 at 12:52:33 PM permalink
Was just playing this game on the videopoker.com website. Why couldn't this wait until I get to the casino?!?!?!?

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 1147
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
September 7th, 2017 at 5:59:57 PM permalink
My only dealt royal lifetime was on videopoker.com. Dammit.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2017 at 8:01:41 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

My only dealt royal lifetime was on videopoker.com. Dammit.


I've got 2 "real" ones. Spin Poker for 9 at once and single line. This game just got instated here. Tempting but I'll pass. ☺
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 7th, 2017 at 8:03:50 PM permalink
None for me, yet. I've gotten two on complete throwaways, but those were both on multi-line games, so got them on one of the lines. I do have dealt Four Deuces w/Joker on that game, which I almost never play. $500 on a $0.25 total bet, so that was neat. Haven't played that one since.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2017 at 8:06:37 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

None for me, yet. I've gotten two on complete throwaways, but those were both on multi-line games, so got them on one of the lines. I do have dealt Four Deuces w/Joker on that game, which I almost never play. $500 on a $0.25 total bet, so that was neat. Haven't played that one since.


I've only played DW+J on the Hoyle Casino cd-rom for the pc. I think I've only hit that hand once but drew to it.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 7th, 2017 at 8:14:15 PM permalink
I know UX-BS is tougher to vulture. But let me find a screen load like this...

DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
September 7th, 2017 at 8:16:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've only played DW+J on the Hoyle Casino cd-rom for the pc. I think I've only hit that hand once but drew to it.



It was strange, the Joker was even in the middle, so that's as perfect as that hand could get. Figured I'll never top that, so unless there's a way to find one at an advantage (and it's rare to find at all, so I doubt it) why ever play again?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 644
  • Posts: 4329
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
September 8th, 2017 at 8:09:05 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

None for me, yet. I've gotten two on complete throwaways, but those were both on multi-line games, so got them on one of the lines. I do have dealt Four Deuces w/Joker on that game, which I almost never play. $500 on a $0.25 total bet, so that was neat. Haven't played that one since.


for me, Royal with least # of cards = 2

best dealt hand was quads (2,3,4) with kicker.
both times resulted in w2-g
:)

best redraw with 1 card (ace) was quad aces with kicker.
2nd best was holding 1 Ace and getting 3333A.
both this year.
also, that's the 2nd time in my life getting Aces with kicker. (don't play ddb that often.)
irony: have same of # of Royals in ddb as Aces with kicker
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 8th, 2017 at 1:06:39 PM permalink
What would you do here? 9/5 TBD. Keep the full house and get the 2x, 3x, 4x, 8x, 12x on all subsequent hands, keep just the aces, or make the standard TDB play and hold AAA2? Multiplier pay table below also.


DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14267
Joined: May 21, 2013
September 8th, 2017 at 9:52:28 PM permalink
I had that exact hand yesterday. Held AAA2. Bricked it.

Therefore, being results oriented, I say AAA and give yourself the extra chance for the 4th A.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
100xOdds
  • Threads: 644
  • Posts: 4329
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
September 9th, 2017 at 7:34:27 AM permalink
saw a .25 10play ult x Bonus streak with a few 4x and 8x multipliers.
don't know if its +ev but played it.

uggg.. hate putting in 10 coins for ult x. :)
(and whiffed both for a total of -$25)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 9th, 2017 at 8:24:47 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I had that exact hand yesterday. Held AAA2. Bricked it.

Therefore, being results oriented, I say AAA and give yourself the extra chance for the 4th A.


I held the AAA2 as well and didn't hit either (not expected to).
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
RS
RS
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
September 9th, 2017 at 4:11:44 PM permalink
I'm not sure, but I'm leaning towards holding the full house. If you had future multipliers on many of the hands, I'd hold the AAA2.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
September 9th, 2017 at 4:38:45 PM permalink
I had a nice $200 vulture earlier on 25 cent DDB triple play with a 4x/8x on the top line. Bricked the first hand and got a dealt full house for the 8x. This gave me the 2x, 4x, 8x, 10x 12x on all the subsequent hands. Got some nice hands on the smaller multipliers then got to the 10x and hit a flush. Hit one high pair for the 12x hands and cashed out.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
lasaduo
lasaduo
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1
Joined: Jan 21, 2019
January 21st, 2019 at 2:29:47 PM permalink
New to the forum but have been bottom-feeding (as I like to call it) for a couple of years, first in the Hollywood, Florida area and now in Maryland casinos in D. C. - Baltimore corridor. I've had an amazing week (+$2000) with just crazy stupid deals.

First was a 10 hand Deuces Wild Bonus 50 cent play. Abandoned mults were 12/12, 2/2/4 and 2/2/4 with seven singles. Deal was 2d 7h 4h 2c 2s - Straight Flush. Passed up temptation to hold the deuces and took the SF for $575 win on the $50 bet plus the 2-4-7-10-12 stacked multipliers on seven hands and 12, 12/12, 12/12 on the other three.

Going into the fifth subsequent hand, with eight 12x mults and three singles, I was dealt Jd, 3s, 3d, Jh, 2d - Full House for a $725 win on that hand.

Intermediate big wins were on dealt four to a flush for $217.50, three Queens for $250.

Played out the stacked 2/2/4 on all hands after the FH and netted another $20.

I had put in a $100 to start, didn't realize that it wasn't max bet on the first push (only 5) and lost $15 when dealt pair of 5s. I cashed out $1,692.50 after the nine total hands played.

If I'd just quit playing slots, I'd have taken home another $800 last night (lost that plus the $100 I walked in with) after a $540 haul the night before.

I'll be checking the forums here for more tips and strategy for sure.
I don't have a gambling problem . . . I have a knowing when to quit problem.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
March 31st, 2023 at 1:39:12 PM permalink
I am taking a fresh look at Ultimate X Poker Bonus Streak. My previous work was on a long-term strategy and return. However, I would like to turn my attention to when to vulture the game (shut up Wiz!).

I think it's easy to say that if the average multiplier on the next hand is more than 2x, then vulture. Remember that a hand with no multiplier really has a multiplier of 1x.

I would hazard to say it's positive at exactly 2x and maybe even at 1.9x, because of the value of future multipliers with a pat 3K or better.

However, let's look more than one hand in advance. Like this one.



The next hand as an average multiplier of 1.5, which is not immediately +EV. However, the hand after that, assuming no improvement, has an average multiplier of 1.9. The hand after that is also at 1.9x, but has two chances to improve.

Would you vulture this hand and why?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11777
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
March 31st, 2023 at 2:02:38 PM permalink
I would not. Even if it is slightly +EV probably not worth my time.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11059
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
March 31st, 2023 at 8:54:54 PM permalink
I found one of these machines last time I was at Del Lago. There were so many multipliers it seemed ridiculously +EV. But I probably stayed on longer than I should have a few times. Clearly you donít hang around to use every multiplier. But I made a bunch of $$, probably more luck than smarts. It must be an extremely difficult calculation to figure out where the EV break even point is as you canít even just figure it out for the round you are playing. I Ďthinkí Iíd play the screen you show, but in no way would I be sure it was the right thing to do.
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 333
Joined: Feb 3, 2015
Thanked by
ChumpChange
April 1st, 2023 at 10:46:42 AM permalink
Bonus streak combines 2 awful things, video poker and paying for multipliers. I have played this a fair bit. It pays so bad. Most of the machines have the same set up so if you play 10 play quarters itís 8/6 jacks. With the EV from the multipliers itís just under 99%. Although Iím certain Iím not playing optimal strategy. Iíve hit big many times and you are almost always still down. I finally did hit a 12x royal ($12000). Iíve hit many other jackpots. I have about 30x where Iíve been dealt 4 to the royal with multipliers where one more card would have been $20k, $40k or even $100k. But it just seems like a drain when youíre not hitting anything. It is amazing how many times you have a full screen of 4x or 7x and you donít even get your money back on that spin. Also youíll get the hands with the long streak of multipliers and go 4-5 hand in a row and hit nothing on it.

As far as vulturing, I almost never find anything at all let alone worth playing.
I see the hustlers come by and they never find anything.
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
Thanked by
Wizard
April 1st, 2023 at 1:01:45 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The next hand as an average multiplier of 1.5, which is not immediately +EV. However, the hand after that, assuming no improvement, has an average multiplier of 1.9. The hand after that is also at 1.9x, but has two chances to improve.

Would you vulture this hand and why?
link to original post

I think Gary Koehler's full Markov approach is overkill to resolve this question.

What I would like to have (if I actually had any interest in vulturing UXBS) is a set of coefficients to multiply the stream of current and future multipliers to see if it is playable in the current state. Suppose I guess a set of coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4, C5. I then calculate the weighted average multiplier, Mw, of the next five hands. For example for your screen shot:
Mw = (C1 * 1.9 + C2 * 1.9 + C3 * 1.9 + C4 * 1.0 + C5 * 1.0) / 5
If the resulting weighted average multiplier Mw > 2.0, the game is considered playable.

Now, I can run tests of my initial Cs. I select a strategy that is appropriate to the specific VP game with a neutal multiplier. This strategy won't be a very good strategy if the multiplier for the next hand is very high or very low. However, I am seeking to get a method that works well for marginal cases where the next hand has a marginal multiplier near 2.0X.

I can run a MC simulation that starts in any state and then runs until I have a boundary case with Mw in the range 2.0 < Mw < 2.5. Then, I run the simulation forward until Mw < 2.0. I capture the net win/loss of this mini-session. I can create a graph of EV versus the initial Mw. I expect that EV versus Mw this will be a monotonically increasing graph. Now, I can see if my coefficients are close to predicting the correct point to stop playing for optimal vulture EV.

I can adjust C1 up or down to make the simulated vulture EV zero when Mw = 2.0. Then, I vary C2 (while keeping the other coefficients fixed) to optimize the EV. Using this optimal C2, I readjust C1 to produce zero EV. likewise, I optimize C3, C4, and C5.

After a few iterations, I expect that the coefficients will converge. Now, I can just do some simple math to see if the game is in a +EV state. I then play until it is not a +EV state.

If I demand a positive EV rather than a non-negative EV, I can just do the coefficient optimization targeting that positive EV number. It may turn out that the EV isn't very sensitive to C5. Also, M5 will often be 1.0. This might mean we can drop the last term of the equation. Or maybe, just count the number of 12xs on the fifth hand to make a simple adjustment if there are multipliers on the fifth hand.

I would be a little concerned that the promotion of multipliers to 12x adds a nonlinear effect. Small future multipliers are actually worth more than their face value.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
GaryJKoehler
GaryJKoehler
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 200
Joined: Oct 22, 2015
Thanked by
Mental
April 2nd, 2023 at 3:34:52 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I think Gary Koehler's full Markov approach is overkill to resolve this question.
link to original post

For the record, my analysis only has the full Markov solution for 3-line Bonus Streak. The 5-Line and 10-Line cases have state spaces far too large for my computing platform.

What Mental suggests is interesting.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
April 2nd, 2023 at 7:06:35 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

What I would like to have (if I actually had any interest in vulturing UXBS) is a set of coefficients to multiply the stream of current and future multipliers to see if it is playable in the current state. Suppose I guess a set of coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4, C5. I then calculate the weighted average multiplier, Mw, of the next five hands. For example for your screen shot:
link to original post



Thanks, good post.

My simulator for the game is coming along well. Then I'll start playing around with strategies to simulate. I'll consider this approach.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
April 3rd, 2023 at 8:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Mental

What I would like to have (if I actually had any interest in vulturing UXBS) is a set of coefficients to multiply the stream of current and future multipliers to see if it is playable in the current state. Suppose I guess a set of coefficients C1, C2, C3, C4, C5. I then calculate the weighted average multiplier, Mw, of the next five hands. For example for your screen shot:
link to original post



Thanks, good post.

My simulator for the game is coming along well. Then I'll start playing around with strategies to simulate. I'll consider this approach.
link to original post

Great! I know how tedious it is to program streaks of multipliers. I hope it goes smoothly.

I am revising my suggestion to subtract a base value form the total of multipliers on each line. These base values will represent the neutral value for the Nth game multipliers.

This means I would have 10 parameters to optimize and the final formula would be more complicated:
C1 * (M1 - M1b) + C2 * (M2 - M2b) + C3 * (M3 - M3b) + C4 * (M4 - M4b) + C5 * (M5 - M5b)
The upside is the the resulting base values are targets when looking for a playable game. The C coefficients indicate how sensitive the EV is to a surplus or deficit of multipliers at each subsequent game. A big surplus in earlier games is more important than a similar deficit in later games. I would expect that many borderline cases that come up in real life would have similar profiles. It might be more practical to have a few typical borderline-playable profile memorized rather than doing complicated math in your head. Of course, a spreadsheet formula with the formula would be pretty simple.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
UP84
UP84
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 370
Joined: May 22, 2012
April 3rd, 2023 at 12:30:17 PM permalink
Quote: Sandybestdog

.... Iíve hit big many times and you are almost always still down. I finally did hit a 12x royal ($12000). Iíve hit many other jackpots. I have about 30x where Iíve been dealt 4 to the royal with multipliers where one more card would have been $20k, $40k or even $100k. But it just seems like a drain when youíre not hitting anything. It is amazing how many times you have a full screen of 4x or 7x and you donít even get your money back on that spin. Also youíll get the hands with the long streak of multipliers and go 4-5 hand in a row and hit nothing on it..
link to original post

Yup, that's what high variance looks like in multiplier VP.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
UP84tringlomane
April 4th, 2023 at 2:30:12 PM permalink
After a lot of time coding my simulator, I have a strategy. This is specifically for 10-play 8/5 Double Double Bonus. Remember that a hand with no multiplier indicated still has a multiplier of 1x.

Vulture if one or more of the following are true:

  • Total multipliers on the next hand are 21 or more.
  • Total multipliers for the next two hands are 34 or more.
  • Total multipliers for the next three hands are 43 or more.


This, I think, is good stuff and the first time I've published on it.



As an example, I posted the screenshot above earlier in this thread, asking if you would vulture it. The combined multipliers the next two hands are exactly 34, so you should vulture it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
April 4th, 2023 at 3:35:02 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Vulture if one or more of the following are true:

  • Total multipliers on the next hand are 21 or more.
  • Total multipliers for the next two hands are 34 or more.
  • Total multipliers for the next three hands are 43 or more.

link to original post


Nice work! This is a nice simple strategy and very useful information for someone.

I like to squeeze every last bit of info out of a set of progressive meters, but I am not into checking UX or UXBS. The structure of the game raises a lot of interesting EV questions, but I suspect you are not giving up much by just adding multipliers. If there were random streams of multiplier, there might be pathological cases that throw this off, but the multiplier are not random. I suspect that most multiplier streams in the real UXBS game have a similar structure after you average over 10 hands.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
MentalUP84
April 4th, 2023 at 9:02:54 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Nice work! This is a nice simple strategy and very useful information for someone.

I like to squeeze every last bit of info out of a set of progressive meters, but I am not into checking UX or UXBS. The structure of the game raises a lot of interesting EV questions, but I suspect you are not giving up much by just adding multipliers. If there were random streams of multiplier, there might be pathological cases that throw this off, but the multiplier are not random. I suspect that most multiplier streams in the real UXBS game have a similar structure after you average over 10 hands.
link to original post



Thank you!

The multiplier streams are defined in the rules. I'll be the first to admit this strategy is just a basic strategy, but I think it will balance ease of use and power well.

I'm working on a 3-play and 5-play strategy now.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
April 5th, 2023 at 8:38:00 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I am taking a fresh look at Ultimate X Poker Bonus Streak. My previous work was on a long-term strategy and return. However, I would like to turn my attention to when to vulture the game (shut up Wiz!).

I think it's easy to say that if the average multiplier on the next hand is more than 2x, then vulture. Remember that a hand with no multiplier really has a multiplier of 1x.

I would hazard to say it's positive at exactly 2x and maybe even at 1.9x, because of the value of future multipliers with a pat 3K or better.

However, let's look more than one hand in advance. Like this one.



The next hand as an average multiplier of 1.5, which is not immediately +EV. However, the hand after that, assuming no improvement, has an average multiplier of 1.9. The hand after that is also at 1.9x, but has two chances to improve.

Would you vulture this hand and why?
link to original post



No.

It might be good mathematically (I don't know on this one), but you can get absolutely punished for chasing on this game. For me, the very next hand is either +EV (independent of next multipliers, potential to boost multipliers or potential to get new multipliers) or it is not +EV. I guess I would also look and see if the average for KNOWN multipliers will come out to more than 2x, per hand, but that doesn't happen without the first set of hands being at least an average of 2x all that often.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
Mission146
April 6th, 2023 at 9:21:39 AM permalink
I'm ready to present my next set of vulture numbers for 5-play 6-5 DDB.

Play if any of the following are true:

  • Total multipliers next hand are 11 or more.
  • Total multipliers next two hands are 18 or more.
  • Total multipliers next three hands are 26 or more.


As to Mission's point, sometimes, like in the screenshot I provided, you have to suffer a negative bet or two to get to a positive one that makes up for the negative ones. My strategy does rely on averages that future multipliers will go up to 12. As with any play, respect your bankroll and don't over-bet it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
April 6th, 2023 at 2:50:39 PM permalink
I'm ready to present my next set of vulture numbers for 3-play 6-5 DDB.

Play if any of the following are true:

  • Total multipliers next hand are 7 or more.
  • Total multipliers next two hands are 10 or more.


There doesn't appear to be any situation where you need to count the next 3 multipliers, where either of the first two rules are already enough to vulture.

Consider the situation where the three streams are 2-4-8, 1-1-1, 1-1-1. Counting just the first two multipliers in each hand there are 10, which is enough to vulture.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1494
  • Posts: 26546
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
ChesterDogSOOPOOTheCapitalShipMission146tringlomane
April 11th, 2023 at 4:24:35 PM permalink
I just published my page at WoO on Vulturing Ultimate X Bonus Streak. This includes strategies for both Double Double Bonus and Deuces Wild. As always, I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Tabbycat
Tabbycat
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Aug 7, 2023
August 8th, 2023 at 12:15:08 AM permalink
Wizard,

Though I once asked for pretty much exactly the type of strategy youíve now published, I somehow missed its April publication. Iíve been successfully vulturing this game for years now, but using a very conservative strategy of pretty much requiring 2X or better multipliers on all future hands.

The problem with doing this is I always knew Iíd been leaving money on the table. The two hard questions were:

1. At what sub-2X level are streaks profitable
2. What strategy adjustments should be made

There are also some unexpected nuances Iíve discovered through playing:

1. A streak has surprising value in its *length* beyond the actual numbers in the streak
2. Except in fresh long streaks, ďbustingĒ existing numbers is not as valuable as it appears.
3. Multipliers overall are not as valuable to vultures because not all future multipliers are playable
3. 10-play is the least likely to have a playable streak, yet holds the highest potential (e.g., full streaks left)

Long streaks are great if you have enough of them make it worthwhile (so often you find only 1 or 2 hands with a full streak at 5- or 10-play that are not playable). Most of the extra value comes from the ability to bust all remaining hands to 12X by hitting something early in the streak.

ďShort streaksĒ of one are also have an advantage: you can earn an entirely new, full streak. If thereís even one more hand in the streak to go, you canít. This is worst late in a streak with an existing high multiplier. If youíre on the last hand (12x) of a streak and get dealt a good hand, you get nothing extra.

So, for example, a single 4X line at Triple Play ó at 6X ó does not meet your 7X requirement, yet I am almost certain it is playable. Whereas a combination of streaks of 2 with multipliers that also total 2X bet may not be, because of #2 and #3 above.

I saw your post for UXBS strategy for the one game ó DDB, right? I appreciate that someone of your ability took the time to create this ó Iíve definitely needed it, but creating it myself wasnít realistic. Unfortunately, your strategy is for, play-through. What I need is one for vultures that takes into account #3 above ó Iíll only be playing positive multipliers, not average ones.

I will be trying out your strategy in coming months and will try to keep a separate accounting for it. I have a system for tracking my estimated EV for this game which is primitive, but the best I could do without better info.

This game is a big chunk of my gaming activity lately, so any further help would be much appreciated.
😸
Last edited by: Tabbycat on Aug 8, 2023
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
August 8th, 2023 at 7:59:30 AM permalink
Quote: Tabbycat

I saw your post for UXBS strategy for the one game ó DDB, right? I appreciate that someone of your ability took the time to create this ó Iíve definitely needed it, but creating it myself wasnít realistic. Unfortunately, your strategy is for, play-through. What I need is one for vultures that takes into account #3 above ó Iíll only be playing positive multipliers, not average ones.
link to original post

If you start a game that has more multipliers than Mike's criteria, you can easily estimate the extra advantage. You have not said what your EV threshold is. Do you want a certain percentage advantage based on coin in or a certain expected profit over each complete sequence?

Every extra multiplier on the next hand earns you about 4.9 coins above breakeven. That would be enough for me. I have a high tolerance for losses if a situation is +EV. Maybe you want more margin of safety. If you find a setup that exceeds Mike's cutoffs due to extra multipliers on the far off hands, you need to discount those extra coins a bit. You might never play those hands because you are playing so tight.

It seems really unlikely that most of the potential plays that you come across are only at Mike's cutoff or 1-2 multipliers higher. Most cases will be fairly strong plays that are no-brainers. I think Mike's criteria are a little tight myself. A more sophisticated model should be able to extract more EV from the optionality of quitting early if the first hand doesn't turn out well.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Tabbycat
Tabbycat
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Aug 7, 2023
August 8th, 2023 at 8:37:11 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: Tabbycat

I saw your post for UXBS strategy for the one game ó DDB, right? I appreciate that someone of your ability took the time to create this ó Iíve definitely needed it, but creating it myself wasnít realistic. Unfortunately, your strategy is for, play-through. What I need is one for vultures that takes into account #3 above ó Iíll only be playing positive multipliers, not average ones.
link to original post

A more sophisticated model should be able to extract more EV from the optionality of quitting early if the first hand doesn't turn out well.
link to original post



Agreed ó that would be useful for me.

I would play any hand thatís positive. If I need action and thought I could get enough, Iíd play breakeven cases in some casinos. Finding near-breakeven setups is quite common, and now Mikeís criteria promises more of them. I would not have considered his Ten Play example with the 2-3-4X streaks, but if heís right then I will get many more play opportunities ó just what I was hoping for.

My biggest problems are getting any action on my card and hiding wins, as Iím winning too consistently. Eventually thatís going to be a problem.
ChicagoSkinny
ChicagoSkinny
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 19
Joined: Feb 21, 2011
August 28th, 2023 at 5:39:32 PM permalink
Yesterday I was playing double bonus 5 handed and was dealt aces over queens. Two hands had a 4x multiplier on current hand with no other future multipliers.

Normally in DB you'd of course ditch the queens, but in Bonus Streak does the guarantee of starting 5 long streaks outweigh the EV of going after four aces?
Tabbycat
Tabbycat
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Aug 7, 2023
August 28th, 2023 at 6:28:56 PM permalink
Quote: ChicagoSkinny

Does the guarantee of starting 5 long streaks outweigh the EV of going after four aces?
link to original post



Without an actual AP (or even play-through) strategy for UXBS I can only estimate.

I will attempt this for 8-5 DDB, 3- or 5-play since this is the most common schedule I find. The earned multipliers are 2-4 for trips and 2-4-8-10-12 for full house or better (note that multipliers for 10-play are different).

Without the bonus, holding the two pair instead of just the aces costs 31% of one bet. (Though you have made a second bet to activate the bonus, it doesnít affect your payout here.) In return, you get a full house 8.5% of the time, 6.5 times more often than when holding just the aces. Since the full 2-4-8-10-12 streak is much more valuable than the 2-4 one earned from making trips on 11.4% of draws, it seems pretty clear that itís a good tradeoff. I would like to know the exact value of a 2-4-8-10-12 streak at this game, but Wiz has only published it for 2-3-4-7-12 (and Iím not sure for which pay table). He gave that value as 23.1 bets, so this streak should be worth considerably more.

Those streak values assume playing through, i.e. using up all the multipliers you earn. Thatís not the case as an AP, because many of those multiplier combinations wonít be enough to make the play positive to the end. To complicate it further, as you go from 3- to 5- to 10-play, fewer multiplier combos are positive ó and the most common examples are many of the 2-4 short streaks earned from trips, further tipping the edge toward holding two pair.

Again, whatís needed besides an AP-based play strategy is a value for at least the longest streaks with an adjustment for only continuing to play when the game remains positive.
Last edited by: Tabbycat on Aug 29, 2023
ChicagoSkinny
ChicagoSkinny
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 19
Joined: Feb 21, 2011
August 29th, 2023 at 10:10:56 AM permalink
Just realized I didn't make it clear on my end from the original post. I was dealt a full house AAAQQ not two pair aces over queens.
Sandybestdog
Sandybestdog
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 333
Joined: Feb 3, 2015
August 29th, 2023 at 1:15:56 PM permalink
Iíve had this happen a few times playing deuces wild where I was dealt a straight flush with 3 deuces. Youíre supposed to go for the 4 deuces but you can make a case for holding the straight flush because of the long string of multipliers.
Tabbycat
Tabbycat
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Aug 7, 2023
March 6th, 2024 at 10:36:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I just published my page at WoO on Vulturing Ultimate X Bonus Streak. This includes strategies for both Double Double Bonus and Deuces Wild.link to original post



I thought you had posted detailed **play** strategies for UXBS DW and DDB (Iíd copied one page).
Are they now gone or moved elsewhere?
Found them before but donít see them now.
Hank
Hank
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 3
Joined: May 5, 2024
Thanked by
Mentaldjtehch34tcalwatch
May 5th, 2024 at 6:42:41 PM permalink
I read Gary Koehler's Bonus streak analysis paper. I wanted to take on the challenge of solving the 5 line problem. In addition to solving the 3 and 5-line problems, I implemented his approach to vulture decisions. I created an interactive front UI for solutions. The UI can calculate the optimal hand as well as the expected EV for any streak multipliers. It is useful for testing any of the ideas discussed here. See how the hand to hold depends on which multipliers you have and your goal of long-term vs short-term play.

I only have pay tables for Deuces Wild and jacks or better right now. I can fully solve the 3-line problem in a couple of minutes and the 5-line problem in a couple of hours. I may add a few types of games later.

I am not allowed to post links as I am new but if you can figure this out you can use the app. "bonusstreak dot azurewebsites dot net"
Tabbycat
Tabbycat
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Aug 7, 2023
May 5th, 2024 at 11:26:31 PM permalink
Hank,

Is the EV in your calculator based on the 5-coin base bet or the entire 10-coin bet?
I will definitely be trying it out in the wild.

For some reason I never read Gary's paper.
Iíll have a look at it.
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
May 6th, 2024 at 8:25:40 AM permalink
Quote: Hank

I read Gary Koehler's Bonus streak analysis paper. I wanted to take on the challenge of solving the 5 line problem. In addition to solving the 3 and 5-line problems, I implemented his approach to vulture decisions. I created an interactive front UI for solutions. The UI can calculate the optimal hand as well as the expected EV for any streak multipliers. It is useful for testing any of the ideas discussed here. See how the hand to hold depends on which multipliers you have and your goal of long-term vs short-term play.

I only have pay tables for Deuces Wild and jacks or better right now. I can fully solve the 3-line problem in a couple of minutes and the 5-line problem in a couple of hours. I may add a few types of games later.

I am not allowed to post links as I am new but if you can figure this out you can use the app. "bonusstreak dot azurewebsites dot net"
link to original post

I am a big fan of Gary's work on Bonus Streak. I went to your site and really like your calculator app. If you don't mind my asking, what language is your VP engine written in?

Do you have a lot of experience in Markov chains and programming?
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Hank
Hank
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 3
Joined: May 5, 2024
May 7th, 2024 at 5:27:48 PM permalink
Quote: Tabbycat

Hank,

Is the EV in your calculator based on the 5-coin base bet or the entire 10-coin bet?
I will definitely be trying it out in the wild.

For some reason I never read Gary's paper.
Iíll have a look at it.
link to original post



All the percent and ev numbers you see are based on 10 coin play. For example, if the vulture ev for a set of multipliers shows 100% you have even odds of getting your money back.
Hank
Hank
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 3
Joined: May 5, 2024
Thanked by
Mental
May 7th, 2024 at 5:37:03 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I am a big fan of Gary's work on Bonus Streak. I went to your site and really like your calculator app. If you don't mind my asking, what language is your VP engine written in?
Do you have a lot of experience in Markov chains and programming?



The solver is written in C# using SIMD instructions and parallel processing. The UI is an angular app.

This was my first Marov chain application, but I have a Math degree and a lot of programming experience. I originally wrote the solver because I wanted to see how efficiently I could write the 5-line solution utilizing a normal CPU. I was considering a GPU-based solution but the CPU version is fast enough. I will consider playing with the 10-line solution via GPU.
Mental
Mental
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 1339
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
May 7th, 2024 at 6:47:32 PM permalink
Quote: Hank

Quote: Mental

I am a big fan of Gary's work on Bonus Streak. I went to your site and really like your calculator app. If you don't mind my asking, what language is your VP engine written in?
Do you have a lot of experience in Markov chains and programming?



The solver is written in C# using SIMD instructions and parallel processing. The UI is an angular app.

This was my first Marov chain application, but I have a Math degree and a lot of programming experience. I originally wrote the solver because I wanted to see how efficiently I could write the 5-line solution utilizing a normal CPU. I was considering a GPU-based solution but the CPU version is fast enough. I will consider playing with the 10-line solution via GPU.
link to original post

Thanks.

Until you mentioned it, I did not realize I have access to SIMD vector instructions via the GCC compiler. I am writing a graphics program for screen scraping right now, and I might try to use this to speed things up.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
  • Jump to: