Too easy to get a Royal?

I consider myself skillful and lucky that I've hit 5 Royals on JB 9/6 Progressive in the last 9 months. All of them were 2- or 3-card draws. I rudimentally compute the odds of getting the 2 cards I need on a 2-card draw to be 2/47 x 1/46, or about 1 in 1,000. I think I've had far fewer opportunities than 3,000 to get my three 2-card winners.
During the last payout, I mentioned this to the attendant, and he quipped that the machines are designed to give out jackpots to make each machine hit its declared payout percentage. He may be confusing VP with regular slot machines, but I think his declaration might be supported by my observation that too often (most evident on 1-card draws to 4-flushes or 2-pair) the VP machine deals out "bad" cards which make it appear that the player should have selected an alternate strategy ("Go with a small pair rather than complete a flush"). One-card-draw discards are too often (much more than 3 in 47, I believe) replaced by a card of the same rank. I think that once a VP machine knows that the hand is not going to improve, the software supplies cards that are not random and which aid the casino in trying to get a player to veer off of ultimate strategy, and I wouldn't be surprised if this tactic were legal because it doesn't change the payout of improved hands. Conversely, if there is truth to this attendant's quip, Royals might be "pushed" to get serious players to keep playing. Thoughts?

My thoughts are this: You heard a fallacy from an uneducated casino employee, which is all too common. I could go in to a longer post about each of the things you pointed out, but I've been told my posts often go on for too long =P.

How many people do you think actually know basic strategy for the VP games they're playing? Honestly, I don't think I've really come across anyone else that I didn't see make 1 mistake over the course of 10-20 hands. Thus, providing cards to "mislead" players first makes the assumption that players have any idea what the proper strategy is to begin with.

Next, the machines pay back what they should because of the math programmed in to the pay table, not the cards selected by the Random Number Generator (RNG). They're not programmed to hit after a while or anything of that nature. Let's take an example... Your odds of hitting 4 of a kind in 9/6 JoB are about 1 in 423 hands (0.002363). If someone plays for 800 hands and doesn't hit a quad, and then they finally hit one you can't say "it was programmed to finally hit to even the math out." No, after 800 hands with a fair RNG you have X% of hitting a quad +/- SD's, that's it. Do not confuse this with the gamblers fallacy thinking something is "due" to hit though, I'm just providing a comprehensive viewpoint.

At the end of the day, so long as the RNG's are as close to "random" as they can be programmed to be that's all you can ask. The only thing I've ever heard of is when the game decides your hand and checks that it's a loser, there's been suspicion that it's programmed to have a "near miss" where you almost hit a big hand (such as 4 to a royal). This will still trigger a dopamine response in your brain for getting close to a big win even though you in fact lost your money. I've only heard this off of hearsay though, so take it with a grain of salt.

Where are you playing? If it's class 2, you could be sensing some funny business, but it's most likely class 3 in which everything after "During the last payout" is BS that you should ignore/forget. Small sample size... and all that jazz.

Slot machines don't do this either. It's all in the RNG. I don't know a whole lot about class II, but I don't think they work like that, either.

Quote: Romes

My thoughts are this:
<very large snip>
The only thing I've ever heard of is when the game decides your hand and checks that it's a loser, there's been suspicion that it's programmed to have a "near miss" where you almost hit a big hand (such as 4 to a royal). This will still trigger a dopamine response in your brain for getting close to a big win even though you in fact lost your money. I've only heard this off of hearsay though, so take it with a grain of salt.

Romes, have you been drinking heavily again ( trick question, just no beat up wives in the path ;-?

Quote: RayMills

I think that once a VP machine knows that the hand is not going to improve, the software supplies cards that are not random and which aid the casino in trying to get a player to veer off of ultimate strategy, and I wouldn't be surprised if this tactic were legal because it doesn't change the payout of improved hands. Conversely, if there is truth to this attendant's quip, Royals might be "pushed" to get serious players to keep playing. Thoughts?

That tactic would be illegal in most states. And the draw replaced by the same rank issue, people often conveniently ignore many of the times it doesn't happen, but will make mental note of when their discard is of the same rank. Humans notice patterns easier vs. randomness. Just be thankful you're running good on royal draws. The game sucks when it's the other way around.

Wow, if I'd known there were 3 of you waiting to reply, I'd have stuck around the computer that day! Do you think the government cares about a "tactic" which doesn't directly cost the player any winnings? This situation feels like being exposed to crafty advertising, or even free drinks.
I play at Oklahoma's Winstar, and Sunday's Royal was $1850 on a $1.25 bet. Every Royal I've won since August has paid about 1200 to 1. That last paragraph (which mentioned hearsay that a machine might more often supply draw cards to make a 4-royal) is roughly what I'm saying, except that I limited myself to 1-draw plays because the same-rank cards are more obvious. I'll take along my disguised video camera next time to see if the 3:47 occurrence is confirmed.
Is there any way to easily determine whether a machine is Class 2 or 3? North of Seattle I learned to play VP on 110% paytables until I realized that dealt winners were rigged and could never be discarded. From then on I always checked by busting-up the first pair I'd been dealt, and then impressing the players on adjoining machines by purposely throwing away dealt pat hands!

Quote: RayMills

Wow, if I'd known there were 3 of you waiting to reply, I'd have stuck around the computer that day! Do you think the government cares about a "tactic" which doesn't directly cost the player any winnings? This situation feels like being exposed to crafty advertising, or even free drinks.
I play at Oklahoma's Winstar, and Sunday's Royal was $1850 on a $1.25 bet. Every Royal I've won since August has paid about 1200 to 1. That last paragraph (which mentioned hearsay that a machine might more often supply draw cards to make a 4-royal) is roughly what I'm saying, except that I limited myself to 1-draw plays because the same-rank cards are more obvious. I'll take along my disguised video camera next time to see if the 3:47 occurrence is confirmed.
Is there any way to easily determine whether a machine is Class 2 or 3? North of Seattle I learned to play VP on 110% paytables until I realized that dealt winners were rigged and could never be discarded. From then on I always checked by busting-up the first pair I'd been dealt, and then impressing the players on adjoining machines by purposely throwing away dealt pat hands!

All of Winstar's VP is Class III.

Tulalip? Yeah, definitely class 2 there. The attendant is full of it.

Looks like Oklahoma used to be class 2 (Pre 2004). Maybe an older attendant that is 10 years behind the times?

Deleted.

Quote: Romes

My thoughts are this: You heard a fallacy from an uneducated casino employee, which is all too common. I could go in to a longer post about each of the things you pointed out, but I've been told my posts often go on for too long =P.

How many people do you think actually know basic strategy for the VP games they're playing? Honestly, I don't think I've really come across anyone else that I didn't see make 1 mistake over the course of 10-20 hands. Thus, providing cards to "mislead" players first makes the assumption that players have any idea what the proper strategy is to begin with.

Next, the machines pay back what they should because of the math programmed in to the pay table, not the cards selected by the Random Number Generator (RNG). They're not programmed to hit after a while or anything of that nature. Let's take an example... Your odds of hitting 4 of a kind in 9/6 JoB are about 1 in 423 hands (0.002363). If someone plays for 800 hands and doesn't hit a quad, and then they finally hit one you can't say "it was programmed to finally hit to even the math out." No, after 800 hands with a fair RNG you have X% of hitting a quad +/- SD's, that's it. Do not confuse this with the gamblers fallacy thinking something is "due" to hit though, I'm just providing a comprehensive viewpoint.

At the end of the day, so long as the RNG's are as close to "random" as they can be programmed to be that's all you can ask. The only thing I've ever heard of is when the game decides your hand and checks that it's a loser, there's been suspicion that it's programmed to have a "near miss" where you almost hit a big hand (such as 4 to a royal). This will still trigger a dopamine response in your brain for getting close to a big win even though you in fact lost your money. I've only heard this off of hearsay though, so take it with a grain of salt.

This question is a little tangential but you seem very knowledgeable. Given an arbitrary vp pay table and game is there software available which will return the game expectation after inputting the pay table and game name? I notice that many games having a common name will differ slightly in the pay table makeup, which typically heavily affects game return.
Thx.

Quote: APEppink

This question is a little tangential but you seem very knowledgeable. Given an arbitrary vp pay table and game is there software available which will return the game expectation after inputting the pay table and game name? I notice that many games having a common name will differ slightly in the pay table makeup, which typically heavily affects game return.
Thx.

Yes, there is software available.. I have it on my phone and laptop... different software for phone vs laptop. Game name doesn't matter, you type in the paytable and it will give you the return in a matter of seconds.

When I play craps here on Wizards "for fun" game i can regularly make thousands of play $'s.... when I play on the Vegas Casino site "for fun" i don't do so well.... more or less break even. Why is there a difference and which is more realistic play? ease don't say the Vegas Casino site is more realistic ; ). I love this game even though I'm new to it and still learning different betting plays.
Thanks.

I would say it's just luck. I have no idea how much you have played to understand whether your conclusion is statistically valid or not.

Quote: rsactuary

Yes, there is software available.. I have it on my phone and laptop... different software for phone vs laptop. Game name doesn't matter, you type in the paytable and it will give you the return in a matter of seconds.

What's the name of the software please? I'd think game type would be necessary as various different games, rules affect expectation. Will it return strategy as well?

Thx.