How much more variance is Triple play over single line?
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best is now $1 8/6 JoB (98.4%) triple play.
after 10 sessions ($1000 coin-in each), I have yet to have a winning session.
yes, I know, variance.
How much more variance is Triple play over single line?
My immediate gut response would be, well, the same or even less?Quote: 100xOdds...How much more variance is Triple play over single line?
You're playing 8/6 JoB, just 3 times as fast. So, technically, you're getting a lot more hands a lot faster which should lessen the effects of variance I would think? Short term (like a 2 hour session) is essentially a 6 hour session. It shouldn't change the actual math variance behind JoB as each hand is still drawing from independent decks with an RNG and playing according to the JoB rule set.
The more hands you get, the larger your EV will be (positive at a +EV game and negative at a -EV game) but your cone of variance and standard deviations should get smaller and smaller in relation. I would think like blackjack, when you get to X hands, variance has effectively been negated and you'll be "around" EV within a standard deviation or so.
Quote: RomesMy immediate gut response would be, well, the same or even less?
You're playing 8/6 JoB, just 3 times as fast. So, technically, you're getting a lot more hands a lot faster which should lessen the effects of variance I would think? Short term (like a 2 hour session) is essentially a 6 hour session. It shouldn't change the actual math variance behind JoB as each hand is still drawing from independent decks with an RNG and playing according to the JoB rule set.
The more hands you get, the larger your EV will be (positive at a +EV game and negative at a -EV game) but your cone of variance and standard deviations should get smaller and smaller in relation. I would think like blackjack, when you get to X hands, variance has effectively been negated and you'll be "around" EV within a standard deviation or so.
less variance?! wow..
$10k total coin-in and I'm waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy down compared to the expected -EV.
(10k x 1.4% should be -$140. I'm down 4 figures.)
there are 5 of these 8/6 JoB triple play machines and I've played each twice.
stupid variance.
almost makes me want to give up my VP addiction. Almost...
The 8/6 JoB, whether one line or multiple is a losing play. The longer you play, the more you lose, theoretically.
As to variance - the three lines is normalized a bit. Should be less variance. As to how much less, that would involve a calculator. (At least, that's what I got out of reading Dancer's book this past weekend.)
The new WoO site is harder to navigate but search works fine. I got there by searching on "triple play variance".
The total variance for 9/6 JoB is 19.514676 (from the wiz). Variance is the Standard Deviation squared... so SD = SQRT(19.514676) = 4.4175.Quote: 100xOddsless variance?! wow..
$10k total coin-in and I'm waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy down compared to the expected -EV.
(10k x 1.4% should be -$140. I'm down 4 figures.)
there are 5 of these 8/6 JoB triple play machines and I've played each twice.
stupid variance.
almost makes me want to give up my VP addiction. Almost...
So let's see...
Average Bet (assuming you're playing $1 level, 5 coin) = $5
Avg Advantage = -1.4% (-.014)
OriginalSD = 4.4175 * AvgBet = 4.4175 * 5 = 22.09
SD(x hands) = SQRT(x) * OriginalSD
So while your EV is -140 on 2000 hands, your SD(2000 hands) = SQRT(2000) * 22.09 = 987.90
This is just ONE standard deviation, which comes with 68% confidence. To say with 95% confidence where your results "should" fall, that would be 2 SD, which would be 1975.79.
Thus, after your 2,000 hands and $10k coin in, you would Expect to lose $140, PLUS or MINUS $1,975.79.... Oh, don't we all love variance =P.
| Hands | Expected Value | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|
1 |
-$0.07 |
+-22.09 |
100 |
-$7.00 |
+-220.90 |
1,000 |
-$70.00 |
+-698.55 |
2,000 |
-$140.00 |
+-987.90 |
10,000 |
-$700 |
+-2,209.00 |
100,000 |
-$7,000 |
+-6,958.47 |
1,000,000 |
-$70,000 |
+-22,090.00 |
I hope you can see here that with 99% confidence when you reach 1 million hands I can guarantee you'll be negative. You might be only down $5-$10k instead of EV which is -$70k, or you might be down $130k, but you will be down.. As you go on to more hands, even with 3SD and 99% confidence, you can't win =(.
...become the AP you were born to be!
So yeah, you should be experiencing more variance on 3-play than 1-play.
Quote: MathExtremisthttps://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/
The new WoO site is harder to navigate but search works fine. I got there by searching on "triple play variance".
ahh.. so 3 play is MORE variance. thx!
9/6 Jacks or Better
# lines/ Variance/ Standard Dev.
1play 19.514676 4.417542
3play 23.447459 4.842258
Quote: 100xOddsahh.. so 3 play is MORE variance. thx!
9/6 Jacks or Better
# lines/ Variance/ Standard Dev.
1play 19.514676 4.417542
3play 23.447459 4.842258
But if I understand correctly you're betting 3x as much per spin, so of course you're going to have bigger swings .
http://jazbo.com/videopoker/nplay.html
$1000 coin in each session only?Quote: 100xOddsafter 10 sessions ($1000 coin-in each), I have yet to have a winning session.
$15 per round?
is 67 rounds at $1005 coin in
that is it?
VPforWinners shows 70% is the chance for one session of that length to show a net loss
so 1/0.70^10=35.4
and you are that 1 - lucky you!
to show a loss after 670 rounds is abouts 66% (witout comps)
