4 of a kind Cycle Bonus

I have played these bonuses in the past, usually in local bars in Vegas. Sometimes you spin the wheel and other times it is a fixed amount given once you complete all 13 4 of a kinds which they usually track with paper and signatures. I found one now that I know is pretty good but I was curious on the math if the wizard or someone else who knows the numbers could let me know. The game is (.25) Full Pay JoB and (.25) Full Pay Bonus Poker Deluxe. The bonus is $250.00 cash after you make all 13 quads and you can rinse and repeat as many times as you like. I was wondering what is the cycle to make all 13 quads and how much does the 250 dollars put on the game in way of percentage back.

Also the way I understand it is they are going to change the Promotion in a few months to 3 cards and once you complete all 3 cycles you will get an extra $500.00 Cash along with $250.00 each for the 3 making the bonus $1250.00 total, which in my mind would put the value at 416 dollars roughly for each cycle of 13 quads after you complete the 39 quads required for the extra 500 dollars so I am curious about the payback on that as well.

Welcome to the forums!

In 9/6 JoB you'll make 4ofk 0.002363, or about 1 in every 425 hands. This tells us to get 13 quads you'd need to play 13 * 425 = 5,525 hands.

(Wizards Calculator shows us this: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/ )

Assuming quarter level, so $1.25 bet, you need to play 5525 hands... so EL = TotalWagered*HouseEdge = (6906.25)*(-0.0046) = -$31.77

If you can play 800 hands per hour, then you should be able to cycle this in about 4.5 hours. So in about 4.5 hours you can expect to lose $31.77 but gain $250 for the bonus, for a net gain of $218.22/4.5 hours = $48.49/hour.

Do you get the $250 bonus for any level? Can you play other levels? At that point I'd play the smallest denomination to lower your expect loss but still collect the bonus.

I should hope at this point you can do the math for the FP bonus poker side =). Perhaps you could message me (click my name - new message) with some further details about denominations/etc?

Quote: Romes

Welcome to the forums!

In 9/6 JoB you'll make 4ofk 0.002363, or about 1 in every 425 hands. This tells us to get 13 quads you'd need to play 13 * 425 = 5,525 hands.

(Wizards Calculator shows us this: https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/analyzer/ )

Assuming quarter level, so $1.25 bet, you need to play 5525 hands... so EL = TotalWagered*HouseEdge = (6906.25)*(-0.0046) = -$31.77

If you can play 800 hands per hour, then you should be able to cycle this in about 4.5 hours. So in about 4.5 hours you can expect to lose $31.77 but gain $250 for the bonus, for a net gain of $218.22/4.5 hours = $48.49/hour.

Do you get the $250 bonus for any level? Can you play other levels? At that point I'd play the smallest denomination to lower your expect loss but still collect the bonus.

I should hope at this point you can do the math for the FP bonus poker side =). Perhaps you could PM me with some further details about denominations/etc?

Does it not change the odds that you have to get EACH of the 13 quads? I think I read it right that op said you have to get each one. I was playing on my recent road trip and got quads about ten times but twice were aces and I think twice each 4's and 7's so I think that would only be seven different quads even though I got quads ten times.

Ohhhhhhh you have to get each of the DIFFERENT 13 quads? Well yes that would greatly change the odds. I didn't read it that way my first pass through and if that's the case my apologies.

If it's each of the 13 you basically still get 1 quad in 425 hands, but the first quad is weighted 13/13 (any quad will do), and the rest are a smaller number:

1st quad: 1 in 425 * 13/13
2nd quad: 1 in 425 * 12/13
3rd quad: 1 in 425 * 11/13
...etc.

Of course one could run good listing them all of or bad hitting the same one over and over. This would basically ruin this promotion.

EDIT - Are you sure it's all "different" 13 quads? Who would actually play that? Any typical person that plays even 400 hands per hour it would take days/weeks to hit all 13 different.


Avg Person = 300 hands per hour (and I think I'm being generous here). Just to hit 13 quads would take 5525 hands, as noted before... just to hit 13 quads, and not even the specific quads would take an average person 18.5 hours. Now factor in the specifics and this number has got to grow QUITE a bit, like 100+ hours.

Yes it does change the odds. You will not make all 13 quads in 5525 hands. I think the number is closer to 20k hands but unsure that is why I was looking for some answers here. It is true that you will make 13 quads in a 5525 hand cycle but that will be with some repeats. I am looking for the math on making a 13 quad cycle Ace through King, You do not get credit for making a set of sevens twice, You must make each quad once and after all 13 total have been made you can restart a new card for the bonus again and again.

Yes it is all 13 and its a great bonus on Full Pay JoB with a progressive royal. I live in vegas so it is not hard to play 4 to 8 hrs a day and just keep pounding the promotion over and over.

Quote: monet0412

Yes it does change the odds. You will not make all 13 quads in 5525 hands. I think the number is closer to 20k hands but unsure that is why I was looking for some answers here. It is true that you will make 13 quads in a 5525 hand cycle but that will be with some repeats. I am looking for the math on making a 13 quad cycle Ace through King, You do not get credit for making a set of sevens twice, You must make each quad once and after all 13 total have been made you can restart a new card for the bonus again and again.

You will in fact, on average, hit 13 quads in 5525 hands... but that doesn't mean you'll hit all "different" 13 quads (twos, threes, fours, etc...).

Yeah this promotion basically isn't worth playing then. This would skyrocket your odds of getting each quad.

1st quad = 1/425*(13/13) = .0024
2nd quad = 1/425*(12/13) = .0022
3rd quad = 1/425*(11/13) = .0020
...
13th quad = 1/425*(1/13) = .0002

Applying all of these the number of hands is going to be much, much higher than 20k hands. To the point the promotion isn't useful.

This is how it works. You play the game normally but every time you hit a 4 of a kind they track it so if you hit four fours they check that off the list until you get through all 13 quads and after you do that they hand you 250 dollars and since the promotion is so strong you have to give something back in the way of a tip but its still a very strong play I was just looking for the exact math and payback since I am not sure how to figure this one out.

This place makes you get 3 signatures from bartender, security and floor person but I have been at bars where the bartender just pencil whips the place and you get a pretty good payback that way!!

I dunno I make the cycle in about 10 to 12 hours of play and that seems pretty good. Even if the cycle was 45k hands it would still be pretty strong. Your talking about putting 40 quarters or more to a 4 of a kind. This is on a full pay game with xtra on the royal. It is not hard to get the royal at 1250 which makes the game 100% and the xtra 250 is pretty big!

It is not a strong play, nor even a play really at all.

Because I like math...

X quad = (chance of getting quads) * (chance of getting a quad on the cycle you need)

1st quad = 1/425*(13/13) = .0024
2nd quad = 1/425*(12/13) = .0022
3rd quad = 1/425*(11/13) = .0020
4th quad = 1/425*(10/13) = .0018
5th quad = 1/425*(9/13) = .0016
6th quad = 1/425*(8/13) = .0015
7th quad = 1/425*(7/13) = .0013
8th quad = 1/425*(6/13) = .0011
9th quad = 1/425*(5/13) = .0009
10th quad = 1/425*(4/13) = .0007
11th quad = 1/425*(3/13) = .0005
12th quad = 1/425*(2/13) = .0004
13th quad = 1/425*(1/13) = .0002

Thus, the P(all 13 quads) = P(1st) * P(2nd) * ..... * P(13th) = 1.64 * e^-39 = .00000000000000000000000000000000000000164

Or about 1 in a gazzillion bajillion flintillion....




(You'd have better luck throwing 18 Yo's in a row)

Quote: Romes

Ohhhhhhh you have to get each of the DIFFERENT 13 quads? Well yes that would greatly change the odds. I didn't read it that way my first pass through and if that's the case my apologies.

If it's each of the 13 you basically still get 1 quad in 425 hands, but the first quad is weighted 13/13 (any quad will do), and the rest are a smaller number:

1st quad: 1 in 425 * 13/13
2nd quad: 1 in 425 * 12/13
3rd quad: 1 in 425 * 11/13
...etc.

Of course one could run good listing them all of or bad hitting the same one over and over. This would basically ruin this promotion.

EDIT - Are you sure it's all "different" 13 quads? Who would actually play that? Any typical person that plays even 400 hands per hour it would take days/weeks to hit all 13 different.


Avg Person = 300 hands per hour (and I think I'm being generous here). Just to hit 13 quads would take 5525 hands, as noted before... just to hit 13 quads, and not even the specific quads would take an average person 18.5 hours. Now factor in the specifics and this number has got to grow QUITE a bit, like 100+ hours.

That was my thought exactly. If I got it right as to how he promotion works you would lose your mind before getting 13 different quads. I have seen a similar promotion in a few poker rooms in my travels. You have to win or chop a pot with a flush in each suit. Yes you or multiple people can play the board if the board has a full flush on it. Personally I have never actually filled a card doing that. I think the most I got was two of them. One time at shooting star in Mahnomen, MN I watched a guy get the first three in about a hour and then proceeded to make about 6 flushes the next 8 hours and never complete his card. He finally gave up, I think the prize was $250.

LOL your math is way off... even if it was 1 every 5500 hands which it is not that would only be 5500 x 13 = 71500 hands. The number is lower for sure. I know for a fact that I make this cycle in about 10-12 hrs of play. Even if it took 20 hrs that is an extra 500 for every royal cycle for my speed of play.

The more I read your comments the more I realize you guys are thinking about live poker and this is for video poker :) !!

You guys are way out of line. You make an average of 2 quads an hour. It is not hard to make the cycle. My last 7 hrs of play I made 8 of them. It is not as tough as you might think.

You guys must be thinking about live poker. This is for video poker on a machine that rolls out about 1200 hands an hour.

^^^^^^^^ So what are you going to do in the next 10 hours when you hit repeat quads and not the ones you need?

Please keep us informed when you make all 13, as you'll go down in some kind of record book.

Quote: monet0412

LOL your math is way off... even if it was 1 every 5500 hands which it is not that would only be 5500 x 13 = 71500 hands. The number is lower for sure. I know for a fact that I make this cycle in about 10-12 hrs of play. Even if it took 20 hrs that is an extra 500 for every royal cycle for my speed of play.

How is my math off? What math are you using? Where did you pull that 5500 hands number from?

The math is easy and simple... The odds of getting quads in those games is 1 in 425... That's from THE WIZARD (linked above). Thus, if you need 13 SPECIFIC quads then you have to weight them with your expectations, as I did.



...You gravely underestimate how difficult the last few will be. The beginning ones are much more in lined with regular expectation because you don't have any quads yet (thus the 13/13 chance, 12/13 chance, 11/13 chance, etc). Have you played much VP? If you sit at a machine one day and say "I'm going to play this until I hit quad aces" you could literally sit there all day and never hit it... Because your odds of that SPECIFIC are 1/425*(1/13) = .0002, or 1 in 5,000... which at 800 hands per hour is still a solid 4 hour session. That's just for the ONE. Now you're saying "and specifically four Kings"... which adds another 5k. Even if you went this approach then you'd be at 65k hands and over 81 hours (2 weeks of full time play).

Quote: monet0412

This is how it works. You play the game normally but every time you hit a 4 of a kind they track it so if you hit four fours they check that off the list until you get through all 13 quads and after you do that they hand you 250 dollars and since the promotion is so strong you have to give something back in the way of a tip but its still a very strong play I was just looking for the exact math and payback since I am not sure how to figure this one out.

This place makes you get 3 signatures from bartender, security and floor person but I have been at bars where the bartender just pencil whips the place and you get a pretty good payback that way!!

I dunno I make the cycle in about 10 to 12 hours of play and that seems pretty good. Even if the cycle was 45k hands it would still be pretty strong. Your talking about putting 40 quarters or more to a 4 of a kind. This is on a full pay game with xtra on the royal. It is not hard to get the royal at 1250 which makes the game 100% and the xtra 250 is pretty big!

Well 45k hands in 10-12 hours would be super human so I'm not sure how you could do that. Roughly 3800 hands a hour is impossible. Most people are playing between 200-300 hands a hour I would say. This promotion will take a lot more than 10-12 hours of play.

Think about it. It takes about 5500 hands to make a set of aces on double bonus or deuces on deuces wild. Thats one exact quad that you need. I have played this promotion for years and it does not take that long. Very easy to make the cycle twice in a 40 hr period. I have and can play video poker 8 to 12 hours a day non stop.

I play around 1100 hands an hour

I do agree the last one is harder than the first and it gets harder each one you roll out but to say it's a gazillion is nuts lol

*thinking out loud*

Okay, we sit at a VP machine. We have a list of all 13 quads we muct check off... Well, we know in the first hour we can expect 2 quads. The first one will, of course, be checked off our list. The 2nd one, well the first one is no good, but the other 12 are good... so we have a 12/13 chance it will be a good quad on our list.

Next hour: We hit 2 more quads... First one, well assuming we got both the first 2 quads off the list, then this one is 11/13, and the following (assuming the 3rd one was also good) is 10/13.

...and so on?

1st quad = 1/425*(13/13) = .0024......... which is 1 in 425 hands
2nd quad = 1/425*(12/13) = .0022....... which is 1 in 450 hands
3rd quad = 1/425*(11/13) = .0020........ which is 1 in 500 hands
4th quad = 1/425*(10/13) = .0018........ which is 1 in 550 hands
5th quad = 1/425*(9/13) = .0016.......... which is 1 in 600 hands
6th quad = 1/425*(8/13) = .0015.......... which is 1 in 650 hands
7th quad = 1/425*(7/13) = .0013.......... which is 1 in 750 hands
8th quad = 1/425*(6/13) = .0011.......... which is 1 in 900 hands
9th quad = 1/425*(5/13) = .0009......... which is 1 in 1100 hands
10th quad = 1/425*(4/13) = .0007...... which is 1 in 1425 hands
11th quad = 1/425*(3/13) = .0005...... which is 1 in 2000 hands
12th quad = 1/425*(2/13) = .0004...... which is 1 in 2500 hands
13th quad = 1/425*(1/13) = .0002...... which is 1 in 5000 hands

If you were to SUM these, that would be 16,850 hands. Perhaps you do sum instead of product (which you normally do for multiple events needing to occur)? Now I'm confused as well.

Typically if you say "So what are the odds of 1st AND 2nd happening?" That would be P(1st AND 2nd) = P(1)*P(2)... but in this scenario I think I see what you're saying. What if the first quad takes exactly 425 hands to get. Then at that point, you should expect the 2nd (weighted) good quad in another 450 hands. So it would be additive, not multiplicative.

If that happens to be the case then it would be 16,850 hands? Which playing at 1,000 hands per hour is still about 17 hours of play. In 17 hours and 17k hands you could expect to lose EL = TotalWagered * HE = -$97.75. If you make $250, then you have a net profit of 152.25, over 17 hours... or about $8.96/hour, plus comps.

I'm still a bit confused as like I said normally requiring 2 or more events to happen results in the product of their individual probabilities... I could make an argument for both sides at this point (and think I have).

I'm laughing out loud reading at this point. I am bowing out, Romes good luck convincing monet0412 how hard hitting the exact quads will be and monet0412 good luck hitting the promotion.

There is a recent thread about this where the Wiz calculated the expected number of hands played to achieve this feat. He did it with the introduction of a new calculator on WoO.

Search is your friend.

Quote: rsactuary

There is a recent thread about this where the Wiz calculated the expected number of hands played to achieve this feat. He did it with the introduction of a new calculation on WoO.

Search is your friend.

Quite right...

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/13764-how-many-hands-to-get-all-13-quads/

And apparently they're also summing the terms and hitting basically the same number I did (when additive).

EDIT - Would still like someone to chime in and say why it's additive and not multiplicative.

I'm going to use the basic assumption that a 4 of a kind is 425. This is incorrect - it's pretty clear that a 4k of A will occur more than a 4k of 2s because you will never hold a single 2.

This means your first 4k will take 425 games.
The second will take 425*13/12 = 460.4 games.
The third will take 425*13/11 = 502.3 games.
...
The last 4k will take 425*13/1 = 5525 games.

Altogether, it will take 17570 games ~=50 hours.
ev = $0.0142 per game if you complete one card.
Completing 3 cards, the ev = $0.0237 per game. This assumes that one card must be completed before starting the next. You'll finish much faster if you can fill out any one of the 3 cards for any given 4k.

17.5k hands in 50 hours ??? You play slow... these machines are lightning not turbo but just under and I can easily pull 1100 hands an hour. It would take me about 17 hrs to get 17.5k hands. I play about 1 royal cycle every 40 hours so I guess I have just been at it a long time. I can also play two machines at once if they are slower but no need with these machines.

I do want to thank all of you though for helping me find the info that I was looking for!! Thank You Very Much!

Also I made a couple of posts on the wrong thread I meant to type this one here...

Ok so I am thanking all of you that you found where the wiz already figured this out and this is what I was thinking about 15 to 20 k of hands and he and you all said it is 17.5k hands. Not very difficult to do in less than 20hrs where as I play at about 1100 hands an hour. You all must understand that I have lived and played VP in vegas for over 15 years so it is not hard for me to have an 8 hour session playing around 7500 hands for sure. So 250 dollars on 17.5 k hands will get me how many total quads? about 36 or so right? so lets say 39 quads total will get me my 13 for the 250 which we break it down to the third which is roughly 6.50 added to the quad which is substantial on a progressive royal that is not hard to pick up at 1250 to 1750 which will put me at 1 - 2 % winner which equates to about 10 dollars an hour average with not alot of variance. Now if they change this to get to the 416 payout for the cycle it will boost up the quad to around 10 dollars which is 40 quarters extra at 165 coins and it is pretty good with the card, mailers and other perks like comps and what not.

I know you might not think 10 - 15 dollars an hour is much but when your playing quarters on lightning speed machines on a smaller BR its pretty good. My point was that its a good win and I am older now so I don't put in the 12 to 15 hr sessions but I know a few people who still do.

Now after re-reading that post that you guys directed me to I find out that it puts roughly a half a percent on the game which is great on JoB or even Full Pay Bonus Poker Deluxe making the game break even from jump street not adding the progressive royal and other perks!

Thanks to all who found that post because I was having some trouble searching it out. I must of been searching the wrong site or keywords

Quote: PokerGrinder

I'm laughing out loud reading at this point. I am bowing out, Romes good luck convincing monet0412 how hard hitting the exact quads will be and monet0412 good luck hitting the promotion.

I do not know why you are laughing. It is pretty easy to do this and would not be hard to fill a card every 2 to 2.5 days. The problem is that you can bring a little heat if your banging it that hard. Anyway I have my answers now and am pretty happy. I still find it funny that they were trying to tell me it was going to take zillions of hands to complete this cycle when now we know it is a mere 17.5k hands and I am sure as you do it over and over it helps to lower the cycle.

Thats an extra 600 dollars or so inside of one royal cycle. Pretty good actually. Now if they change this promo like I think they are it will boost it over 400 dollars per Quad cycle!!

Of course to take the heat off you just grease the wheels a bit with some bigger tips and that usually does the trick.

Quote: PokerGrinder

I'm laughing out loud reading at this point. I am bowing out, Romes good luck convincing monet0412 how hard hitting the exact quads will be and monet0412 good luck hitting the promotion.

I'm not sure why you're laughing either.

OK folks.. here's some hard numbers... sorry.. can't get it to format well

I typed a game in to my WinPoker to give me the probability of a quad for each particular type. Here are the results....

JoB all Quads
Hand Name Payout Frequency % Prob. Occurs Every % of Ret.
Royal Flush 4000 64.345748 0.00% 40390.550 1.98%
Straight Flush 250 284.08995 0.01% 9148.370 0.55%
Quad 2 125 456.64156 0.018% 5691.466 0.44%
Quad 3 125 456.75573 0.018% 5690.044 0.44%
Quad 4 125 456.86728 0.018% 5688.654 0.44%
Quad 5 125 456.97983 0.018% 5687.253 0.44%
Quad 6 125 456.97539 0.018% 5687.308 0.44%
Quad 7 125 456.97062 0.018% 5687.368 0.44%
Quad 8 125 456.87979 0.018% 5688.498 0.44%
Quad 9 125 456.76219 0.018% 5689.963 0.44%
Quad 10 125 452.65004 0.017% 5741.654 0.44%
Quad J 125 506.78321 0.019% 5128.347 0.49%
Quad Q 125 508.2823 0.020% 5113.222 0.49%
Quad K 125 509.08593 0.020% 5105.150 0.49%
Quad A 125 508.52786 0.020% 5110.752 0.49%
Full House 45 29919.766 1.15% 86.864 10.36%
Flush 30 28626.273 1.10% 90.789 6.61%
Straight 20 29184.676 1.12% 89.052 4.49%
3 of a Kind 15 193489.19 7.45% 13.432 22.33%
Two Pair 10 335990.7 12.93% 7.735 25.86%
Jacks or Better 5 557697.91 21.46% 4.660 21.46%
NOTHING 0 1417562.9 54.54% 1.833 0.00%
Total Return 99.54%
Variance 19.51468

Now, someone should be able to use this, plus the Wiz's calculator to get the real answer.... it didn't work for me.....
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/expected-trials-calculator/

I figured it out! 17305.898746 hands.

So on a quarter machine, the casino hold is 17306*1.25 = 21,632.50 x .0046 hold = $99.51

Quote: monet0412

I do not know why you are laughing. It is pretty easy to do this and would not be hard to fill a card every 2 to 2.5 days. The problem is that you can bring a little heat if your banging it that hard. Anyway I have my answers now and am pretty happy. I still find it funny that they were trying to tell me it was going to take zillions of hands to complete this cycle when now we know it is a mere 17.5k hands and I am sure as you do it over and over it helps to lower the cycle.

Thats an extra 600 dollars or so inside of one royal cycle. Pretty good actually. Now if they change this promo like I think they are it will boost it over 400 dollars per Quad cycle!!

Of course to take the heat off you just grease the wheels a bit with some bigger tips and that usually does the trick.

I found the interaction betweens Romes and Monet amusing not the promotion or the prospect of completing it. Didn't mean to offend anyone.

I found Monet to be amusing as well, made my nose twitch ;-)

Quote: PokerGrinder

I found the interaction betweens Romes and Monet amusing not the promotion or the prospect of completing it. Didn't mean to offend anyone.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I found Monet to be amusing as well, made my nose twitch ;-)

I can understand this. I am pretty hyper at times and I was pressed for time at the start of this conversation. Actually I was laughing about the interaction between Rome and myself. I know the numbers on most of this stuff as an average but to break it down to the Nth degree is not something I try to do. It is nice to have the computers and people like the Wiz and others in this forum to break it down for me. After being an AP for almost 20 yrs now in all sorts of games I kinda have a feel for something if it is good or bad but to be able to give you the exact numbers is something I don't do. I usually can figure out if it is a half % winner or 1 or 2 % winner, something like that. I am thanking all of you though that helped me out with the exact numbers and I am glad that some of you had a chuckle in the read!!

Quite a few places have the good old hit 13 different 4 of a kinds and get a bonus.

There's gaming systems dedicated to this concept.

I have seen this exact amount and promotion, I'm just drawing a blank right now, but it will come to me eventually.

Perhaps you need to recheck the pay-tables because....

very very few bars have full pay or even close, especially on lower denominations and progressives. You're lucky to find 7/5 bonus poker. FYI even if they advertise 99% payback it's usually BS.

I'm willing to wager that you can't maintain 1100 hands an hour for 1 hour on a normal single line JOB machine without making mistakes.

Did you say you had 15 years of advantage play experience? You shouldn't be wasting your time with this play on a regular basics, especially if you have 10 to 12 hours a day to dedicate to it.

Whoever made the assumption of 300 hands per hour is crazy. I would say that regular video poker players will play a lot closer to 700 hands per hour and fast players can play closer to 1000 hands per hour.

I don't know what the odds are of this but it has to be extraordinary. I have played this promotion and once cleared the last 4 of a kind to get the bonus while playing Deuces Wild. The last four of a kind I needed was the Deuces. I hit every other natural 4k before hitting the 2's while playing Deuces Wild. I would love for someone to do the math on that.

Quote: AxelWolf

very very few bars have full pay or even close, especially on lower denominations and progressives. You're lucky to find 7/5 bonus poker. FYI even if they advertise 99% payback it's usually BS.

Fond memories of the 100% Deuces games at the Village Pubs that had this promotion.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quite a few places have the good old hit 13 different 4 of a kinds and get a bonus.

There's gaming systems dedicated to this concept.

I have seen this exact amount and promotion, I'm just drawing a blank right now, but it will come to me eventually.

Perhaps you need to recheck the pay-tables because....

very very few bars have full pay or even close, especially on lower denominations and progressives. You're lucky to find 7/5 bonus poker. FYI even if they advertise 99% payback it's usually BS.

I'm willing to wager that you can't maintain 1100 hands an hour for 1 hour on a normal single line JOB machine without making mistakes.

Did you say you had 15 years of advantage play experience? You shouldn't be wasting your time with this play on a regular basics, especially if you have 10 to 12 hours a day to dedicate to it.

I would take this bet easy and win at any amount you like. I can also play at about 1600 hands an hour playing two machines that are a bit slower. I suppose it is my atari generation kicking in since I can play video games for 15hrs straight as well like FPS's or Civ.

I would easily bet the first hour I could pull 1100 hands mistake free on Job, however Double Bonus might be where you have the edge but I have been playing Double Bonus Advanced Strategy for many years... Nowadays only at the 4 Queens but even there they have cut the card. I used to love the Palms on the dollars with all the progressives and many other places I wish not to list.


Yes the Pay Tables are 9/6 Jacks and 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. Not only that but the Royal is a progressive as I have already mentioned and is not hard to pick it up at 1250 or higher. They used to have 16/10 Deuces as well but they fixed that one. Anyways it really doesn't matter if you believe or don't I have been doing this for most of my life and I have a few friends that can keep the same pace as well.

I guess you live in Vegas as well and can find better plays but for myself it is pretty slim pickens for what my BR is. When the Plaza was running the double royal Ace card promo a year or so ago we crushed them out of tens of thousands. Oddly enough before they changed the pts on the card the fun play was Catch The Heat Dollar Slots! The best part was the 4x Bingo that you got to play for your points. I don't really have all the time to list what I know or what I have gotten in on. I really just wanted to find some math to this play and that is what I got :) !

One last play that I will share is the 5 dollar 16/10 up in Eureka on certain days on certain machines that give a huge point bonus and is worth about 100 an hour. We have done very well up there but do not have the dedication to make the journey or to reside up there on a consistent basis.

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm willing to wager that you can't maintain 1100 hands an hour for 1 hour on a normal single line JOB machine without making mistakes.
.

Let's make this happen! Sounds like Monet is willing to take you up on your offer! How much are you willing to bet? You say 'mistakes'. If Monet plays 1100 hands and makes 1 or less mistakes he wins?
Monet? Axel? Is this all just talk or are you 2 willing to be put to the test?

I'll also take that bet and will fly anywhere for it- 1100 hands an hour with no mistakes and I'll book up to 5k

Quote: Wizardofnothing

I'll also take that bet and will fly anywhere for it- 1100 hands an hour with no mistakes and I'll book up to 5k

I will bet against anyone doing 1100 hands an hour if I get to select the machine. Feeding coins between every hand takes a long time. :)

1100 hands an hour with no mistakes is not happening by any chance -
I'm going to throw the disclaimer that if the machine auto holds then I will not take the bet - so if it's the greenbriar casino I am out

Quote: Wizardofnothing

1100 hands an hour with no mistakes is not happening by any chance -
I'm going to throw the disclaimer that if the machine auto holds then I will not take the bet - so if it's the greenbriar casino I am out

I've never seen an auto hold machine that plays optimal.

You might be right- I have very little experience with auto holds

But every 4oak you need a signature of multiple people. That alone would slow you down a ton.

Quote: monet0412

I would take this bet easy and win at any amount you like. I can also play at about 1600 hands an hour playing two machines that are a bit slower. I suppose it is my atari generation kicking in since I can play video games for 15hrs straight as well like FPS's or Civ.

I would easily bet the first hour I could pull 1100 hands mistake free on Job, however Double Bonus might be where you have the edge but I have been playing Double Bonus Advanced Strategy for many years... Nowadays only at the 4 Queens but even there they have cut the card. I used to love the Palms on the dollars with all the progressives and many other places I wish not to list.


Yes the Pay Tables are 9/6 Jacks and 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe. Not only that but the Royal is a progressive as I have already mentioned and is not hard to pick it up at 1250 or higher. They used to have 16/10 Deuces as well but they fixed that one. Anyways it really doesn't matter if you believe or don't I have been doing this for most of my life and I have a few friends that can keep the same pace as well.

I guess you live in Vegas as well and can find better plays but for myself it is pretty slim pickens for what my BR is. When the Plaza was running the double royal Ace card promo a year or so ago we crushed them out of tens of thousands. Oddly enough before they changed the pts on the card the fun play was Catch The Heat Dollar Slots! The best part was the 4x Bingo that you got to play for your points. I don't really have all the time to list what I know or what I have gotten in on. I really just wanted to find some math to this play and that is what I got :) !

One last play that I will share is the 5 dollar 16/10 up in Eureka on certain days on certain machines that give a huge point bonus and is worth about 100 an hour. We have done very well up there but do not have the dedication to make the journey or to reside up there on a consistent basis.

Originally I was thinking you were someone who just did some occasional gambling and that you stumbled on to something that you thought
had more value than it actually did.

I apologize for that because it sounds like you are knowledgeable enough to be certain it's full pay. It sounds like you know it is what it is and you're happy with that. Finding full pay in a bar is rare but certainly not impossible there used to be quite a few locations that had good games. So in that aspect it's actually a good find.

I don't think there's anything wrong with playing it occasionally, especially if they are comping food.

Now that I know more about you, I really don't think you should dedicate many long hours to that play because I'm certain you can find better stuff even in Vegas. Especially if you have a 20k+ bankroll, I'm assuming you do since you have been playing $1 denominations. I'm assuming you probably just want a nice low risk, fun, relaxing play. Personally I would play the minimum amount needed to get my food comped every few days.




If you have been playing since or before the days of the Palms 10/7 $1 progressive I'm fairly certain you would recognize me. Especially since you played the Plaza Double Royal promotion and the catch the heat and other various promotions. I didn't play at the plaza as often as many others did but I was there enough to have probably played next to you at some point. No doubt you probably know Djatc because he booked many hours there and hit many Royals.

Regarding the Eureka play if i'm to go by your hands per hour estimates is it safe to say that its less than .5% advantage?

Speaking of HPH, someone offered a 5k wager. I'm not willing to wager 5k on something like this because It's certainly not impossible. If you think you can you should make the bet with him. I don't think you can do it so I'm willing to commit to $500 right now and I'm thinking I may be willing to go up to $1000.

I'm adding a no weasel clause. The bet is to prove you can actually do something that benefits you. To prove you can crank out 1100 hands on many games you frequently find and play. So no funny business, no special or abnormal machines and games. We can discuss the terms.

Quote: AxelWolf

Originally I was thinking you were someone who just did some occasional gambling and that you stumbled on to something that you thought
had more value than it actually did.

I apologize for that because it sounds like you are knowledgeable enough to be certain it's full pay. It sounds like you know it is what it is and you're happy with that. Finding full pay in a bar is rare but certainly not impossible there used to be quite a few locations that had good games. So in that aspect it's actually a good find.

I don't think there's anything wrong with playing it occasionally, especially if they are comping food.

Now that I know more about you, I really don't think you should dedicate many long hours to that play because I'm certain you can find better stuff even in Vegas. Especially if you have a 20k+ bankroll, I'm assuming you do since you have been playing $1 denominations. I'm assuming you probably just want a nice low risk, fun, relaxing play. Personally I would play the minimum amount needed to get my food comped every few days.




If you have been playing since or before the days of the Palms 10/7 $1 progressive I'm fairly certain you would recognize me. Especially since you played the Plaza Double Royal promotion and the catch the heat and other various promotions. I didn't play at the plaza as often as many others did but I was there enough to have probably played next to you at some point. No doubt you probably know Djatc because he booked many hours there and hit many Royals.

Regarding the Eureka play if i'm to go by your hands per hour estimates is it safe to say that its less than .5% advantage?

Speaking of HPH, someone offered a 5k wager. I'm not willing to wager 5k on something like this because It's certainly not impossible. If you think you can you should make the bet with him. I don't think you can do it so I'm willing to commit to $500 right now and I'm thinking I may be willing to go up to $1000.

I'm adding a no weasel clause. The bet is to prove you can actually do something that benefits you. To prove you can crank out 1100 hands on many games you frequently find and play. So no funny business, no special or abnormal machines and games. We can discuss the terms.

Yes I like the fact that it is a very low risk play and it seems that next month they are going to offer if you can fill 3 cards in a month you get an extra 500 dollars so as I said you can easily pick up the royal at 1250 making the game 100% from the jump and the extra bonus is just that ...extra money in your pocket. I am serious about these machines pumping out 1200 hands an hour. My friend plays faster than me so I know he could do it for sure without mistakes for the first hour. I might have to eat my words a bit and put the bet at 1000 hands instead since I think that is more fair these days but years ago I wouldn't have a problem doing the 1100 but my stamina isn't what it used to be. I used to put in 15hr sessions easy. Years ago I found a 5% win at the Golden Nugget on the Deuces Wild 5 way progressive machine for about 3 weeks and put in 18 to 20 hr days. I clipped them for over 10k in 3 weeks before the floor people behind me said that the machine was a 5% win and we have to fix it and the next day it was back to the 5% loser it always was lol. 10k in 3 weeks on quarters is pretty amazing!

500 or a 1000 dollar bet is nothing to sneeze at but I would say that it is silly for guys like us. We are supposed to be taking advantage of the mistakes in the evil empires and not each other. Not that I don't go fishing in poker games now and again but to try to take money from another Video Poker Advantage Player just doesn't sit right with me but I don't mind showing you for free if you happen to be around.

Id have to look up the numbers again on the Mesquite play but yes I think it was about .5 or .75% win which is pretty good these days for me. When I had access to the 500 dimes that my friend had it was a no brainer but since he is a good hearted degenerate he decided to give all that money back to the casinos lol. 20 to 40k is about what I play on these days so yes your right.

I like to gamble my money on sure things that usually pay 8 to 16 dollars an hour these days. Years ago I could find 20-50 dollar an hour plays but they have cut this town down pretty tight. Not that sharpies aren't still finding plays it is just that most of the times it is high risk high variance plays and I don't always enjoy that!

I don't know if you remember Ichabods play years ago but we were enjoying the 7/5 bonus poker with the royal usually at 1750 and you got to spin the wheel every 4 of a kind and of course you get the extra 100 on making all 13 quads. Bartender a little friendly on that play as well with candle races and what not. Great food and drinks too! It was only 12 am to 8 am though and only 3 machines but the dollars were pretty good and I beat them on a royal on the dollars and crushed the quarters but would be there at 10 pm some nights to lock down a machine.

Lastly this play that I am talking about has machines at the bar that are just under turbo so I am sure that you can understand that a real player can pull 1200 hands without a problem but like you say at that speed errors can occur more easily. I'll give you a quick update on it I ended up hitting the royal at 2400 the other night and I took a day off but went back to play a couple hours and took off 3 more quads. So I have played about 10 hours on it making 11 needed quads and now I need Aces and Tens to complete the cycle. After that I will wait till March 1st to see if they change the promo and if they are going to give me 1250 for every 3 cards completed in the month I will be there almost every day.

Also not all machines can crank out 1100 to 1200 hands an hour!! These machines just happen to be set at what I would called lightning which is a hair under turbo. Think about the Jokers at the LVC for the double royal promotion lol.They moved much slower and I would play 2 at a time on the quarters but I really crushed them on the .50 cent jokers making about 11 royals on it! Not bad when you get 4700 on each :) ! However it was the Bingo where I really got them and I think 40k in the Bingo was about where I ended up but I hit 4 hot balls so that was nice! I see the D bought the LVAC but I heard they had put the card back on the .50 cent Jokers and put the Bingo back on but not as strong. I think my Ace card fell off and I took some time off months ago so I haven't checked on it.

Oh and yes now I think you can see I don't just play a few hours for funsies! I have been playing for a living in this town for about 23 yrs now. I started out with Live Poker but jumped over to Video Poker back in the mid 90s so I have found some pretty good stuff but this town is almost making me move now since it is cut city and if you do find something you have to keep quiet! Funny thing is that I actually found the Plaza play months before and they were offering the double royals before the main promo but you had to play 1 session of Bingo to get the ticket to get the double royal. I messed up and told 2 people about the tier match and the Jokers and after Jon Ho found it ... well all the low limit sharpies were over there!! I should of just shut up because it was a ghost town over there for about the first year that I played!

On a side not... I guess a year or two ago they had a strong Pick Em Poker play at Pechanga or another Indian Casino in Cali and I missed out on it. I guess they had it all the way up to 25 dollar machines :( ! I guess they were giving you a free car after so many points!!

All I have to say is to PM Axel or myself. We've probably crossed paths. I would also delete some of the info on plays here.

I would enjoy a promo like this; but I'm sure I'd get really frustrated. My last gaming session, I hit quad 8's, and my next quads were 8's. The next quads were 3's and the next quad was 8's again!

I'd have to drink more, or drink less. Not sure which. Either way, those last few quads would have me going crazy.

Additionally - I have never played perfectly. I've come close, but for one reason or another, (usually my speed) my pinky doesn't hit that 5th card button to hold the card quite hard enough and it doesn't get held. I like to blame the machine, but it's my fault for not paying closer attention before I hit the draw button.

The faster you go, the more likely you are to make mistakes. But, I have a hunch the machine "pays you back" when you screw up like that.

You keep thinking the machine is your friend, the machine is your friend, the machine is your friend. Some losers, actually a whole bunch of losers, have to make up for that evil handful of winners that are in league with the devil. So there. ;-)

<edit> I am sorry BABBs, I wanted to push some buttons, I did not mention your buttons, that's a whole different topic ( look for my PM ). Yours truly, The Feathered One.....

<2nd edit> Dear BABBs, still got a trip headed your way around the 1st of June. To the rest of you, chime in, I can't tackle BABBs by myself on the 'Victory'. I needs me a posse...;-)

Not that it matters but I'll give an update of this play so far. about 16 hrs played. 1 royal at $2394.25 , 1 Str8 Flush, 44 total quads with one 13 quad cycle complete for the $250.00 extra. You will not get a royal this high very often on this play. This happens about once in a few years that I have seen on these machines. The royal last night was at $1400.00 so thats pretty decent. It is not hard to get the royal on average around this number. So I am way ahead on this play but I ran really good with a quick royal on the first 8 hrs at an unusually high number for the royal which is nice. I ran pretty good on quads too until the last 8 hrs where I made so many repeats it was kinda sick and that is with getting 3 aces and 3 tens many times over till I finally hit both. Actually the first 8 hrs I ran really bad on quads and was losing almost 600 before I hit the Royal.

Total Profit/Loss = +1840.00

Quote: monet0412

Not that it matters but I'll give an update of this play so far. about 16 hrs played. 1 royal at $2394.25 , 1 Str8 Flush, 44 total quads with one 13 quad cycle complete for the $250.00 extra. You will not get a royal this high very often on this play. This happens about once in a few years that I have seen on these machines. The royal last night was at $1400.00 so thats pretty decent. It is not hard to get the royal on average around this number. So I am way ahead on this play but I ran really good with a quick royal on the first 8 hrs at an unusually high number for the royal which is nice. I ran pretty good on quads too until the last 8 hrs where I made so many repeats it was kinda sick and that is with getting 3 aces and 3 tens many times over till I finally hit both. Actually the first 8 hrs I ran really bad on quads and was losing almost 600 before I hit the Royal.

Total Profit/Loss = +1840.00

It appears I'm running good this week. I played 5 hrs last night ... hit another royal for 1594.00, 2 str8 flushes, 18 quads ( 8 that went onto the bonus card ).

Total Profit/Loss = + 3472.00

Very high profit for only 21 hrs of play on single line quarters, but the good thing is that they will never be able to beat me on this play now :)

Hypothetically you could still lose -about the same chance as Alan seeing 18 yos

So, assuming you're playing 1,000 hands per hour (no simple feat), you've played about 21,000 hands (half a royal cycle) and hit 2 roayls? Runnin good indeed =P.

I hope it keeps up for you! How long do they run this promotion? If you're already X over EV for the whole promotion you might just think about running with the winnings?

Plus ev is plus ev- no reason to stop. I was on a 25k must hit last year and hit a jackpot for 15k. Didn't leave since it's still a positive play

Quote: Wizardofnothing

Plus ev is plus ev- no reason to stop. I was on a 25k must hit last year and hit a jackpot for 15k. Didn't leave since it's still a positive play

What I'm saying is let's assume the promotion lasted for 24 hours. Let's say given how fast the OP plays he plans to play 3 cycles, for a net gain of (making numbers up) $600. So in the first few hours the op is lucky and hits 2 cycles and 2 royals for $2500. His expected value from the play is $600. The more hands he plays the more he will gravitate towards his EV for the play, meaning his money "won" will go down.

This crosses near a fine line of "the gamblers fallacy" I assure you I'm aware, but it always makes for a fun theoretical discussion. It's like saying I'm gonna play 1,000,000 hands of blackjack with an average edge of 1% and a $100 avg bet. So after 1,000,000 hands I'll expect to make $1,000,000. Let's say in the first 200,000 hands you're up $1,500,000... Let's also assume you're never playing the game of blackjack again when you hit 1,000,000 hands (like when promotions run out). The "long run" numbers state that even with your standard deviations by the time you hit 1,000,000 hands you're going to be DOWN from where you are now. So why would you keep playing?

Quote: Romes

So, assuming you're playing 1,000 hands per hour (no simple feat), you've played about 21,000 hands (half a royal cycle) and hit 2 roayls? Runnin good indeed =P.

I hope it keeps up for you! How long do they run this promotion? If you're already X over EV for the whole promotion you might just think about running with the winnings?

Why would I quit. The promo is going from 250 a card to 416 a card next month after you make 3 cards. 1250 total which equals out to 416 a card but you got to make 3 which like I said before will take me about 6 to 7 days playing at about 7 to 8 hrs a day. It's a grind but its Full Pay JoB with lightning speed machines and brand new buttons.

They have ran this promo for almost a year now but they are getting ready to increase it next month. I seen a pro playing it last night so I am guessing they seen my post on here because nobody really goes over there. I don't mind if pros start playing it because the royal will always be higher than normal and I won't have to wait for it to be around 1250 as long.

It really doesn't matter to me though it is a play that I live close to and check on a regular basis so when the royal is at the right number I play. You will not get rich on this play and most likely it is worth 12 dollars an hour with no risk. That is what I like... No risk for my time. I get tired of running after the 5 % winners trying to make a royal before 6 other people make it playing some high variance game where I can hit all sorts of premiums and still go home 1200 dollar loser!

I understand what you are saying Rome but if I quit this play I just go on and play some other play around the same win % so like I said before this is just another play on a short list. Your BJ analogy isn't exactly the same... this is a never ending promo until they yank it so you don't stop playing till its over or you know they are taking it down next week.