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stabworld
stabworld
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May 23rd, 2015 at 10:04:56 AM permalink
I always heard talk of Advantage Play on Video Poker, Jacks or Better, Double Bonus Poker, etc. I started reading some threads on AP VP, (I have a lot more reading to do). For somebody who wanted to get into Advantage Play on Video Poker, where would I start, as far as learning, researching, scouting out good machines? What are the best machines? What type of bankroll would I need? Where would I find a guide to the proper plays to make at the machines?

Thanks VP APer's.
bigfoot66
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May 23rd, 2015 at 10:10:53 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I always heard talk of Advantage Play on Video Poker, Jacks or Better, Double Bonus Poker, etc. I started reading some threads on AP VP, (I have a lot more reading to do). For somebody who wanted to get into Advantage Play on Video Poker, where would I start, as far as learning, researching, scouting out good machines? What are the best machines? What type of bankroll would I need? Where would I find a guide to the proper plays to make at the machines?

Thanks VP APer's.



There are a ton of variables here and a lot of it will come down to you scouting out games on your own anyway. Depending on your bankroll, if you only have a few thousand dollars you could do worse than to play 25 cent full pay deuces wild and earn about $7 an hour with zero comps.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
AxelWolf
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:23:08 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I always heard talk of Advantage Play on Video Poker, Jacks or Better, Double Bonus Poker, etc. I started reading some threads on AP VP, (I have a lot more reading to do). For somebody who wanted to get into Advantage Play on Video Poker, where would I start, as far as learning, researching, scouting out good machines? What are the best machines? What type of bankroll would I need? Where would I find a guide to the proper plays to make at the machines?

Thanks VP APer's.

It really depends on your goal. Are you looking to make a sizable income, or just play and make a few bucks?

I wouldn't ask, "how much do I need." I would figure out how much I had and go from there. It's not so different from BJ,the more you have the bigger you can bet, the more you make. But not always, sometimes you find LOW/NO risk plays that earn $100 an Hr +
Not to mention VP limits get capped out. There's not many higher denomination plays like on $25 $100 denoms . But you can run through 20k on dollars.. I know many people who have done it playing just a few promotions.

To be serious about it. You need minimum of tens of thousands. It's hard to really know because it really depends on how you go about it and what you play.
3k could work if done right.

TBH there's no book or website that will teach you enough. It's nothing like BJ in that regard, There's a 1000x more information on BJ.

The basics are easy to learn. IE Book information
9/6 JOB strategy (check)
99.54.
Players card = .2
casino promotion= 10x points on memorial day. card now = 2%(good luck ever finding this). Best game in house is 9/6. With 10x points. 99.54 +2% =101.54
$1 denomination x800 hands per hr =4000 coin in = $61.60 an hr. Seems like the best play, but in reality in may not be.



Books won't teach you enough to be really successful.

Good VP nowadays is all about the promotions and mail nowadays (Progressives are nothing like they used to be.) If its published, it's probably no good anymore.
There's no simple formula regarding promotions, you really have to have a good feel/sense for it, that's something no book can teach.
You can't stop at VP, you need to include slots, keno and everything that's available.

It's extremely hard APing solo, unless you're happy with $12 an hr. Sure some guys do it, but they really know what they are doing, and 99% of them have some type of network and a significant BR. But, if you think you just get a BR, learn the numbers, learn how to play all the games, then plop down and start playing, forget about it. Unless you're happy making $7-$12 an Hr.

Ask Djatc how many miles driving he put in in the last 6 months. And flying.

People think slot/VP/keno/sports AP is boring. It's really not, sometimes it can be, if you're stuck on a super long play.

It's more like a educated treasure hunt, but you only have half the map(and the food and perks are super good).
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
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May 24th, 2015 at 2:32:03 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

For somebody who wanted to get into Advantage Play on Video Poker, where would I start, as far as learning, researching, scouting out good machines?



A lot of the machines say "Over 100% Payback" or something like that (then in small letters it adds something like "with optimal play.") Those ones are very easy to find

Quote: stabworld

What are the best machines?



The ones where you will earn the most money, given enough hands

Quote: stabworld

What type of bankroll would I need?



To start on a quarter machine, about $5,000 to get close enough to a 0% chance of losing everything (assuming it is one of the better paying VP machines, like the so-called Full Pay Deuces Wild). You could start with a nickle machine with only $1,000. But with that it might be better to work at McDonald's until you have enough resources to earn more than $1.50 per hour at casino games.

Quote: stabworld

Where would I find a guide to the proper plays to make at the machines?



www.wizardofodds.com is as good as any
RS
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May 24th, 2015 at 4:07:09 PM permalink
+1000 what Axel said.

Lots of experimenting, scouting, figuring out what promotions are good and which aren't. Two casinos may have the same promotion, but it may come down to which machine is best to play.

You might get good mail playing the 9/6 JOB machine, but chances are -- you won't. You may be better off playing something like 7/5 Bonus Poker, because playing a poor return machine might give you 10x the mail/free-play. But this isn't always true.



Ultimately, it comes down to which casinos are in your area, what kind of promotions and what kind of mail they give out. From there, figure out if you want to play for mail (free-play) or if you want to play the promotions. Or possibly both. Then figure out which is going to be best for your goal. For doing big coin in amounts (playing for free play / mail), you want a low volatile machine where you can grind it out. If you're playing on a promotional day, it really depends on what the promotion is and where you're getting your edge -- that will decide which machine is best.


IMO, you should learn 9/6 JOB strategy first, since that's a good base for most VP variants. Get Video Poker for Winners.



edit: do you live in LV?
texasplumr
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May 24th, 2015 at 4:29:42 PM permalink
I agree with RS here. What I did was learn JOB by playing the practice game on WOO for 2 to 4 hours a day, every day. I eventually went hours and hours with no mistakes (his game flags mistakes). Then I felt comfortable risking my own money in casinos.

It also made it easier to learn other games. And my experience is the same. VP doesn't really earn much in the way of comps. I think I earn far more green chipping BJ. I'm fortunate enough to have a wife who loves penny slots. She may lose 1K max over four days but we get a suite comped and a limo to and from the airport. Also get quite a bit of free play from her slot play.

We work real well as a team that way. I try and win real money and she takes care of the hotel, meals, and generates a fair amount of free play. And she's ecstatic with this situation.
Stupid is a choice
AxelWolf
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:30:50 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Get Video Poker for Winners.

Strike one.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Ibeatyouraces
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:35:14 PM permalink
Don't go to a higher denomination while chasing losses!!
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
AxelWolf
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:37:23 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Don't go to a higher denomination while chasing losses!!

What if you're due (-;
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rdw4potus
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:39:25 PM permalink
I hear that The Undeniable Truth About Video Poker is an excellent book.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ibeatyouraces
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:40:36 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I hear that The Undeniable Truth About Video Poker is an excellent book.


It's excellent kindling for your fireplace.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
djatc
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May 24th, 2015 at 8:48:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

It's excellent kindling for your fireplace.



Don't disrespect kindling. Kindling keeps us warm.

Video poker is pretty hard to determine a bankroll for risk of ruin, because what you'll play, how high you play, and when to play is all up in the air based on which casino you are at. For blackjack it is pretty simple, plug in a few numbers, determine how much you want to bet, and figure out how much bankroll you need.

I like VPW because you can plug in a quick ROR calculation based on the type of game, if you know how much of an advantage you are getting in mailers, multiplier points, etc. I wish there was a UX optimal strategy option as sometimes it's the best option for a play. DSTP, dreamcard, and some variants don't require a strategy change so there's no relearning how to play. VPW also has multi-strike, which has it's own strategy.

Because of the different games you'll be playing it's safe to use the 3-5 royals bankroll playing straight up, but more for variance increasing gametypes. I like a 10-royal bankroll because I play for a living and if I go bust it'll take a real long time for me to get back to normal.

Another thing you can do is to determine the return of the game, and take out the big hands (royals, SF, 4 aces) and figure out how much you'll get dropped for on the game. For a 99%+ game you can expect to lose 5-7% if you don't hit the premiums. 10/7 DB you could be losing 12% or so if you don't hit quads! Let's say you play $1 single line NSUD and don't hit any royals or deuces. According to the Wizard's DW return tables a royal is worth 1.8%, and deuces 3.7%. You'll lose 5.5% so if you can play 800 hands an hour you'll coin in $4k, but lose $220 an hour. Add another 4.7% for wild royals if you don't hit any for a combined loss of $408 an hour.

Of course you won't play NSUD (99.73%) without any extras on top because it's not positive. Cashback and multipliers help out a bit. If the casino is giving you 0.1% but has 7x days you should play only on 7x days since you'll have an advantage (0.43%). Now your $4000 coin in per hour is worth $17/hr. It's not great, but now you can determine what the mailers are. If the casino sends you $25x6 in a month on $20k coin in you can play 5 hours a month, and make $85 + $150, for a total of $235, which divided by 5 is worth $47/hr.

So now you'll have to find the balance between how much to play to get the mailers, and the lowest you can play to keep it going. Also if you do this with enough casinos you can figure out a schedule of picking up mailers/playing. You'll have a calendar of events for which places are optimal to play at on what day.

Another fun thing to do (actually not really) is to keep an eye on progressives. If any good plays come up you can run a lot of money through so you get good value. I've seen Bob Dancer playing some progressives I've went after over the years I've been in Vegas. Me and my partners enjoy trying to snap him off.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
RS
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May 25th, 2015 at 3:16:55 AM permalink
Just thought of something.

VP and BJ, in a way, can be analyzed in opposite ways.

With card counting BJ, you have a BR, spread, desired ROR, etc. then figure out how much you're going to bet then. After all, you can choose how much to bet whenever you want.

VP can be the exact opposite. Someone in your network informs you of a play: you'll play $1 9/6 JOB to $20,000 coin in and you get $1000 back in FP. From there, you have to figure out what kind of a BR you need. You don't have the option to play $10,000 coin in to get $500 in FP -- it doesn't quite work that way. You gotta find the "sweet spot" -- $10K coin in might generate $250 in FP, $20K coin in might get you $1000 FP, and $40K might get you $1.5K in FP.


Like DJ said, (at least if you're in LV) you can play VP at a big chunk of casinos, and when your FP comes in the mail, you gotta figure out a schedule for picking up the FP, as well as doing additional coin in.



If you have no clue where to start on how much to play or where to play........I recommend playing a game that is break-even or slightly negative. If a casino has 0.1% cash-back, and have 3x days on Wednesdays....then that makes 9/6 JOB return from 99.54% to 99.84%. You could put in a good amount of coin-in on such a day, and only be giving up 0.16% of your coin in, in EV. Granted, variance is much more severe in VP than BJ....and it isn't uncommon to lose 5% or 10% of your action when doing coin in (short on four of a kinds, no SF's or RF's, etc.).


Learn, study, practice -- and when in doubt, ask questions. Chances are people aren't going to tell you any good plays (ie: play X amount and you'll get Y back in FP at casino Z)...but you might get some helpful hints. But if you're in LV, just play good paytables on point multiplier days, and you're almost certain to be playing at a +EV.
DRich
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May 25th, 2015 at 8:48:11 AM permalink
It is nice to see a post where people are actually trying to help the original poster without mocking him. Good work guys.

The only advice I would add is that being in a location with more casinos will generally give you more opportunities. Nevada is probably the best because most of the casinos are in close proximity of each other and you won't be wasting a lot of time driving looking for opportunities.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
mrfrancks
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May 25th, 2015 at 2:56:29 PM permalink
A few tips:

Try to find machines where the "theoretical" advantage varies from the "perfect play" advantage. For instance finding a machine with 9/6 JOB (0.46% perfect play house advantage) that has been set up with a theoretical advantage of 3-4%. One way to figure this out is to play a machine one time to a set amount of coin in (e.g. $25K) and then see what kind of cash back it generates. You can usually correlate the cash back generated with the theoretical that a machine has been set to.

Look for opportunities to exploit "stacked" promotions. Sometimes the larger casino chains offer promotions at the property level, regional level and national level; and sometimes they can be "stacked" (played concurrently) to gain an advantage. As computers become more sophisticated, these opportunities are becoming fewer and fewer.

Look for ways to liquidate benefits that you receive as you reach higher tiers in a casino's loyalty program.

Look for mis-programmed machines. These can be very difficult to find, but occasionally machines are improperly programmed and may, for instance award higher levels of points that they should or be set at a higher theoretical than normal.

Keep in mind, when getting started that there is both a learning curve ( you must practice for many hours to ensure that you can achieve near-perfect play) and an earning curve (there will be several weeks or months between the time when you begin playing at a property and when you begin to receive offers based on that play) that require an upfront investment of time and money.

Keep meticulous records, but be discreet about it. Writing extensive notes in a notebook while sitting at a machine is not a good idea.

Opportunities still exist, especially in competitive markets with multiple casinos.
BTLWI
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May 25th, 2015 at 5:02:25 PM permalink
Keep in mind that mailers may be capped. At my local the most a monthly mailer offer can be is $120 in free play so it's best to spread my play out over the entire year to reach status. A guy I know (a degenerate) will put $50,000 through on SLOTS in a trip multiple times a month and he still never gets over $120 in freeplay. Sure he gets 4 suites a week and I only get 3 regular rooms a month but suites at a casino 5 miles from my house aren't worth additional losses to me.
Tortoise
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May 26th, 2015 at 7:20:12 AM permalink
You need to run simulations to determine what type of bankroll is necessary before playing. For some simple plays like over 100% machines and double point days the simulators in software like VPFW and Wolf Poker are sufficient but for more complicated plays like multi-meter progressives you have to write the code yourself or get it from someone else.
tringlomane
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May 26th, 2015 at 6:37:15 PM permalink
Quote: djatc


I like VPW because you can plug in a quick ROR calculation based on the type of game, if you know how much of an advantage you are getting in mailers, multiplier points, etc. I wish there was a UX optimal strategy option as sometimes it's the best option for a play.



You could create your own Ultimate X strategy and plug it in. :P It was all explained here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/20663-learning-a-new-game-utx-or-qq/

Although that probably doesn't give you the variance calculations you want.
djatc
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:46:00 AM permalink
Also one more tip. Its easier to find a play and share it with others in exchange for info. I found out about casino xyz giving a big portion of coin in by talking to another ap.

Good thing these APS I talked to weren't in Intel. They love to talk.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
djatc
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May 28th, 2015 at 10:47:13 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

You could create your own Ultimate X strategy and plug it in. :P It was all explained here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/20663-learning-a-new-game-utx-or-qq/

Although that probably doesn't give you the variance calculations you want.



Ain't nobody got time for that (translation I'm lazy and just want to play it to learn like vow)
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
kewlj
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May 28th, 2015 at 11:07:14 AM permalink
Quote: djatc


So now you'll have to find the balance between how much to play to get the mailers, and the lowest you can play to keep it going. Also if you do this with enough casinos you can figure out a schedule of picking up mailers/playing. You'll have a calendar of events for which places are optimal to play at on what day.



Quote: RS

Like DJ said, (at least if you're in LV) you can play VP at a big chunk of casinos, and when your FP comes in the mail, you gotta figure out a schedule for picking up the FP, as well as doing additional coin in.



When I got into VP play a few years ago, it was to supplement my fulltime blackjack play. The next thing I know I am spending far more time on this supplemental thing than my primary source of income, blackjack. As both you two are aware, Vegas has a lot of local casinos vying for the local player's action. Between scheduling and really figuring out travel schedules to minimize travel expenses, hitting certain areas on certain days, but still maximizing prime EV generating potential days, it can quickly become a full-time job. :(

Luckily, I have a business partner than now handles most of that (and that basically is his fulltime job), freeing me up to return to my true love, blackjack, while still reaping the benefits of supplemental VP play and a little diversification. :)
stabworld
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June 1st, 2015 at 11:02:14 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It really depends on your goal. Are you looking to make a sizable income, or just play and make a few bucks?



I'm looking to make a sizeable income.

Quote: AxelWolf

I wouldn't ask, "how much do I need." I would figure out how much I had and go from there. It's not so different from BJ,the more you have the bigger you can bet, the more you make. But not always, sometimes you find LOW/NO risk plays that earn $100 an Hr +
Not to mention VP limits get capped out. There's not many higher denomination plays like on $25 $100 denoms . But you can run through 20k on dollars.. I know many people who have done it playing just a few promotions.



Is there a ROR caculator anywhere I can find to determine what level I would play at according to my bankroll? example, .5, .25 $1, or $5 machines? Is there a general rule of thumb, for bankroll purposes on say a: nickel, quarter, dollar, or $5 machine? I read somewhere that 3x-5x royal, or more conservatively 10x royal should be a good bankroll. Is this accurate?

Quote: AxelWolf

It's extremely hard APing solo, unless you're happy with $12 an hr. Sure some guys do it, but they really know what they are doing, and 99% of them have some type of network and a significant BR. But, if you think you just get a BR, learn the numbers, learn how to play all the games, then plop down and start playing, forget about it. Unless you're happy making $7-$12 an Hr.



Why is this? What advantages to you have with a network? Why only $7-$12 an hour solo? Is this because of travel expenses cutting down on profit?
stabworld
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June 1st, 2015 at 11:14:04 AM permalink
Quote: RS





edit: do you live in LV?



No I live on the East Coast. I'm in the middle of CT, PA, and AC casino's. But, I plan to go down to Vegas at least once every month or two months for a week mainly to card count. However, I do not intend to play rated any longer at the BJ tables, as I have on my first trip already been backed off twice and 86'd once.

I figure playing video poker rated with an edge, will give me the necessary comps to get free rooms while staying down in vegas.
stabworld
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June 1st, 2015 at 11:24:08 AM permalink
Quote: RS

But if you're in LV, just play good paytables on point multiplier days, and you're almost certain to be playing at a +EV.



Are the point multiplier days in LV you mention open to the general public? - or are these invited only members?

I know in A.C., at the CET properties, they would have on some months 10X multiplier days every Thursday, but only if you were invited to the promotion.
abacabb
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June 1st, 2015 at 2:47:56 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld


Is there a ROR caculator anywhere I can find to determine what level I would play at according to my bankroll? example, .5, .25 $1, or $5 machines? Is there a general rule of thumb, for bankroll purposes on say a: nickel, quarter, dollar, or $5 machine? I read somewhere that 3x-5x royal, or more conservatively 10x royal should be a good bankroll. Is this accurate?

Why only $7-$12 an hour solo? Is this because of travel expenses cutting down on profit?



You can find some ROR numbers on the WoO site but for specific games/promotions you'll really need some software. Even then, you are still estimating while you know the exact percentage of a game and the exact percentage for points, you have to deduct some for making mistakes and add some more for things like mailers and drawing entries (if the casino has a drawing), for example. I could get into Kelly criterion but meh. If you play with good promotions, and on lower variance games then 5 royals may be OK.

The $7-12 number he threw out is probably a reference to full pay deuces wild (FPDW). It's easy to find this in Vegas but usually you earn few points, get bad mail, it's usually limited to $0.25 denomination, and the machines are slowed down. Even if you master the strategy the best you will probably be able to do is minimum-wage-ish on that. It's pretty easy to just learn a strategy and go, but to learn the ins and outs, all the casinos, scouting promotions and games, reading all the forums, etc. is something that can't necessarily be taught, but has to be learned personally and over a lengthy period of time.
TomG
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June 1st, 2015 at 10:27:23 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Is there a ROR caculator anywhere I can find to determine what level I would play at according to my bankroll?



A decent formula: house advantage of the game without accounting for the Royal Flush (should be around 1.5 to 2.0%) divided by chance of hitting a Royal (somewhere around 1/40000)(for the so-call "Full Pay" Deuces Wild that is 0.011 x 45000 = 495 or $618.75 for a quarter machine). Double that and you should have a less than 50% chance of going broke. Double it again and your risk of ruin drops below 25%. Double it yet again and it falls to under 5%. Double it once more -- and if you go broke I would be pretty certain it was because of making mistakes during play or miscalculating the formula as the risk of ruin should be approaching 0.1%.

(and that's without any cash back or free play to add to your earnings; if you include that, it's obviously going to give you better odds)

Quote:

Why is this? What advantages to you have with a network? Why only $7-$12 an hour solo? Is this because of travel expenses cutting down on profit?



It's because of the difficulty in finding profitable machines that are over 25-cent denomination: 0.7% x $1.25 x 600 hands per hour = 5.25 per hour.
stabworld
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June 4th, 2015 at 9:32:26 PM permalink
Quote: abacabb


The $7-12 number he threw out is probably a reference to full pay deuces wild (FPDW). It's easy to find this in Vegas but usually you earn few points, get bad mail, it's usually limited to $0.25 denomination, and the machines are slowed down. Even if you master the strategy the best you will probably be able to do is minimum-wage-ish on that. It's pretty easy to just learn a strategy and go, but to learn the ins and outs, all the casinos, scouting promotions and games, reading all the forums, etc. is something that can't necessarily be taught, but has to be learned personally and over a lengthy period of time.



makes sense.. thanks
stabworld
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June 4th, 2015 at 9:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: TomG



It's because of the difficulty in finding profitable machines that are over 25-cent denomination: 0.7% x $1.25 x 600 hands per hour = 5.25 per hour.



I started scouting jacks or better machines in my regular rotation of casinos I count in - and came across a few 9/6 full pay jacks or better at the $5 denomination. What would be a proper bankroll for a machine at this level? It must be high at $25 per hand and $20,000 coin in an hour I would imagine. I like the jacks or better game because I read it has lower variance as opposed to the higher variance games like double bonus.
RS
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June 4th, 2015 at 10:08:21 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I started scouting jacks or better machines in my regular rotation of casinos I count in - and came across a few 9/6 full pay jacks or better at the $5 denomination. What would be a proper bankroll for a machine at this level? It must be high at $25 per hand and $20,000 coin in an hour I would imagine. I like the jacks or better game because I read it has lower variance as opposed to the higher variance games like double bonus.



Depends on the edge and where the edge comes from.

If you're grinding out a 10x points day (ie: 0.1% CB with 10x points day), you need about $90K bankroll minimum to be playing at "full kelly", which is essentially:

(Edge/Variance)*BR = Wager


But, that's not the type of advantage play I would recommend. But an example.
djatc
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June 4th, 2015 at 11:11:12 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I started scouting jacks or better machines in my regular rotation of casinos I count in - and came across a few 9/6 full pay jacks or better at the $5 denomination. What would be a proper bankroll for a machine at this level? It must be high at $25 per hand and $20,000 coin in an hour I would imagine. I like the jacks or better game because I read it has lower variance as opposed to the higher variance games like double bonus.



Because your edge is fluctuating based on what type of promotion you play, even with the same game (9/6) jacks it's hard to say. If you know exactly where the edge comes from and is the same all the time, it's a lot simpler. Personally for me I like to pad my royal buffers more as I move up in denomination since I play for a living, and going bust means "do you want fries with that?" which is not my ideal situation.

8-10 royals sounds like what I like, more or less depending on the type of game. One promotion we played required literally $800 for a quarter game, because the return was tied up on lower paying hands. Don't think we had a single losing session over $200 or so. That's after paying employees as well. It was pretty fun because it was during football season and I like to watch the Seahawks win :)

I remember Bob Dancer living by the 3-5 royals rule, but his edges were a lot higher and plentiful back in his heyday. He seemed to have many 1%+ edges pretty much everyday throughout Vegas, and he could save up his bankroll for the huge 5%+ overlays by grinding the double royals, double 4oaks, 1% cashbacks, etc.

$5 is a rough ride, if you are not properly equipped in bankroll. $15k in action per hour at 600 hands per hour, and a 10% drop is 1.5k/hr in losses. It seems though at this playing level (I don't know about today, but it probably was true back 10-20 years ago) you'll have to start adding up the comps as part of your EV, such as drawing tickets, comped dinners, scalpable show tickets, or maybe even watches. Airfare if you can buy some refundable tickets..... shopping spree gift cards, holiday gift points, etc you get the idea.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
stabworld
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June 5th, 2015 at 12:51:47 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

Because your edge is fluctuating based on what type of promotion you play, even with the same game (9/6) jacks it's hard to say. If you know exactly where the edge comes from and is the same all the time, it's a lot simpler. Personally for me I like to pad my royal buffers more as I move up in denomination since I play for a living, and going bust means "do you want fries with that?" which is not my ideal situation.

8-10 royals sounds like what I like, more or less depending on the type of game. One promotion we played required literally $800 for a quarter game, because the return was tied up on lower paying hands. Don't think we had a single losing session over $200 or so. That's after paying employees as well. It was pretty fun because it was during football season and I like to watch the Seahawks win :)

I remember Bob Dancer living by the 3-5 royals rule, but his edges were a lot higher and plentiful back in his heyday. He seemed to have many 1%+ edges pretty much everyday throughout Vegas, and he could save up his bankroll for the huge 5%+ overlays by grinding the double royals, double 4oaks, 1% cashbacks, etc.

$5 is a rough ride, if you are not properly equipped in bankroll. $15k in action per hour at 600 hands per hour, and a 10% drop is 1.5k/hr in losses. It seems though at this playing level (I don't know about today, but it probably was true back 10-20 years ago) you'll have to start adding up the comps as part of your EV, such as drawing tickets, comped dinners, scalpable show tickets, or maybe even watches. Airfare if you can buy some refundable tickets..... shopping spree gift cards, holiday gift points, etc you get the idea.



I guess I'm trying to wrap my head around, where exactly the extra edge comes from (edge after the perfect strategy house advantage). Is this from accumulating comp points or dollars from coin in and then later converting those points or dollars back into free slot play at a 2 for 1 rate? (example 10 points or $10 gets you $5 worth of free slot play)
AxelWolf
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June 5th, 2015 at 1:13:56 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I guess I'm trying to wrap my head around, where exactly the extra edge comes from (edge after the perfect strategy house advantage). Is this from accumulating comp points or dollars from coin in and then later converting those points or dollars back into free slot play at a 2 for 1 rate? (example 10 points or $10 gets you $5 worth of free slot play)

You have the perfect strategy, you have a bankroll, you found a 9/6.

Great! Now what?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
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June 5th, 2015 at 1:30:51 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

where exactly the extra edge comes from



That's the difficult part. :)
djatc
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June 5th, 2015 at 1:55:00 AM permalink
The most quantifiable source of advantage is in the cashback.

Play $1000 coin in = get $1 back. Play on a 7x multiplier day, get $7 back for the same $1000 in coin in.

Take the house edge on the game and multiply it by the coin in to determine your expected loss. For example 9/6 has a 0.46% house advantage so for every $1000 you play you expect to lose $4.60. Now take the cashback, at 7x to get $7 back. Take the difference between the cashback and the edge on the game (towards the casino) to get your expected win, which is $3.40 per $1000 coin in. Now how fast and how much you bet determines your actual hourly.

$1000 coin in is 800 hands on quarters. Doable to do it in an hour but most likely 600-700 hands per hour average over a day. So you'd make $3.40/hr. Less than minimum wage with the possibility of losing money!

$1000 coin in is 400 hands on 50c. More than possible to do this in one hour. You'd make $6.80/hr @ 800hph (hands per hour). Now you are close to minimum wage. Still though you'd have to put up with cigarette smoke.

$1000 coin in is 200 hands on $1. Now you don't have to deal with pesky quarters or spare change. You'd make $13.60/hr @ 800hph. Not bad for banging on a bunch of buttons for fun.

$1000 coin in is 40 hands on $5. The fact is that the numbers don't change except the denomination makes for great exponential growth. You'd make $68/hr @ 800hph. Of course you might lower your hph since you will get taxables on straight flushes or royal flushes.

This is all theoretical of course, and I highly doubt you can find such a play in the $5~ range, let alone $1. If you do let me know :)

Another form of return is the monetary gifts. Some casinos give you gift cards based on your coin in, such as the Palms and their Play Earn Win promotion. I think you get a variable rate of 0.25% of your action or so on video poker. This means you play $10k coin in and get a $25 gift card. How you value the gift card is totally dependent on each person. For me VISA gift cards are good as cash, gas cards as well (gotta feed the Miata), free play a little lower since you can't run it on anything at 0EV (well you can run it on FPDW but variance), and everything else is pretty much worth 75-90% because I would sell them. Luckily most casinos will tell you straight up what you get for how much points, so you don't have to waste your time playing for Einstein Bros gift cards.

Some casinos offer "holiday points" which are redeemable at the end of the year. Usually the are different point balance accounts that are based on your regular account. Most places like CET and MGM will let you convert these points to freeplay. I think the rate is pretty horrible, at $300k coin in per $100, but it's pretty much free since you don't have to do anything different from playing what you usually play. Or you can weigh your options with overpriced TVs, grills, chocolates, jewelry, etc but usually the points you redeem to get those is better spent on freeplay which you can play off to buy the things yourself at a cheaper price.

As I mentioned before if you play higher denominations sometimes hosts will just come up to you and offer you free food. This isn't worth much in the monetary sense but it's nice to get something out of playing video poker which you already do anyway. I've had hosts come up and write me a comp just for playing in high limit, not really betting high but just putting in time.

I saw this on Max Rubin's "Comp City" which is to try to negotiate airfare in a form of cash or freeplay. Lot's of casinos don't consider freeplay face value and usually they will cough up airfare reimbursement in freeplay. Of course the airfare is a "hard" comp, so it costs the casino whatever the price was that you paid for the flight. If one were to be sneaky they could purchase a refundable flight, refund it as soon as they print the boarding pass, and use that to show to the cage. Even sneakier if you live where you play but use an out of state license......

Drawings are another form of EV. It's very difficult to determine the exact edge because of the BIG unknown, such as number of tickets. Other factors you can figure out, such as coin in per ticket, max ticket amounts per player if any, different amounts per slot play, video poker play, table games play, multiplier ticket points on certain days, etc.

Suppose a $30k car is being given away for first place, and $10k and $5k for second and third. The drawing is worth $45k overall. It takes $100 coin in to receive one ticket, with unlimited entries per player, and a 5x earn rate on Friday nights. $100 in average bet per hour earns you 1 ticket. $100 in slot play earns you 1 ticket. $100 in video poker play gets you 1 ticket. Table players usually get screwed in promos like this, and the slot player is spending about $10 a ticket in theoretical loss. The video poker player can usually find a 99% game so each ticket is costing $1 in theo loss. The 5x multiplier means you only spend 20 cents in theo loss per ticket.

The big problem I mentioned now comes into play. How big/small is this casino, how many sharp players, what's the ease or difficulty loading tickets (a physical drum usually deters a lot of random ploppies as opposed to digital kiosk generated tickets), etc. If you manage to earn 5% of the total tickets, you have a 5% shot at winning 45k total, which is $2250. So the drawing is worth $2250 to you total. Let's say you played $100k coin in on 5x day for a total of 5,000 tickets earned. Now divide the tickets by the equity which is $0.45 per ticket. You spent 20 cents to get one ticket, so each ticket is worth 25 cents on average, or $1250 in value. Running $100k coin in with an expected loss of $1000 at 99% return, you just made $250 in value. It's only worth 0.25% in return, but combined with cashback, mailers, and the other goodies I was talking about you can do this indefinitely provided you have the right amount of bankroll.

TLDR Edition: always calculate everything you get in your return to determine whether or not it's a good play.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
mustangsally
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June 5th, 2015 at 10:51:50 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

-- and if you go broke ***************************
I would be
pretty certain
it was because of making mistakes during play or miscalculating the formula


as the risk of ruin should be approaching 0.1%.

and you honestly believe that?


.1% means, on average, that 1 out of 1000 WILL bust their bankroll
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

so from 100 million OPs. you are giving your opinion to
we should expect 100,000 (check me math) of them to bust out their bankroll of what you guesstimate
but those that DO (DUE) it is because of why?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

it is not BEACUSE they made mistakes
say
a trillion computers playing perfect strategy and starting with your recc bank
still bust out, as expected

and not because one did the RoR thing wrong
or played less than perfect (made LOTS of mistakes HAHAHAHAHA)
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<,,

this is SO FUNNY!

place BLAME **every-where** else except where it should be

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
i blame Satan (i could also place blame on the Wizard and Frank Scoblete too, but will not now)
oh, yes, Satan
because he likes it, i think
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DI craps players do the same thing
too many 6,1 7 outs
blame the dice
DICE ARE UNBALANCED and BIASED to cause ALL craps players to lose

Baccarat PLAYERS
13 PLAYER wins in a ROW
most players blame the dealer and the shuffle for that
only Banker can win 13 rounds in a row
i love that stuff (yes Mom i laugh at you)

on and on


thank you for your opinions
it was a good laugh for me
=====================================

folks that read that post and want to follow that opinion to a close enough starting bankroll

just laugh it off, in my opinion,

ask your computer and be nice
it will tell you

the Wixzard has a RoR table for this
fpdw is there
i say it be a good table
but have not even tried to prove how accurate it really is

and do we really need to be accurate in determine a starting bankroll for an AP vper?

no, as one poster says
you bust out because you make mistakes or calculated wrong

stillllllllllllllll super funny
there needs to be a sexy and funny video made of this

thank you for sharing again
I Heart Vi Hart
TomG
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June 5th, 2015 at 12:05:47 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

Quote: TomG

-- and if you go broke ***************************
I would be
pretty certain
it was because of making mistakes during play or miscalculating the formula


as the risk of ruin should be approaching 0.1%.

and you honestly believe that?


.1% means, on average, that 1 out of 1000 WILL bust their bankroll
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

so from 100 million OPs. you are giving your opinion to
we should expect 100,000 (check me math) of them to bust out their bankroll of what you guesstimate
but those that DO (DUE) it is because of why?



That's with no points, mailers, or other bonuses on top of it. With even a limited amount, it could very easily drop to 1 in 5000. Which means if there are 100 million computers playing perfect strategy, 99980000 will never go bust and see there bankroll grow and grow until the end.

But no computer is allowed to play casino games. Only people are allowed to play. And if we all played perfect video poker (or perfect black jack or any game that could provide a player edge) the casino couldn't offer them and still be in business. So of the people who attempt to earn money from the casino, what percentage of them play close to optimal and what percentage make enough mistakes to defeat any possible edge they could gain?

Quote: mustangsally


and do we really need to be accurate in determine a starting bankroll for an AP vper?



Absolutely not. If someone continues to work a regular job, they can never truly go broke so long as they have a weekly paycheck coming in. Simply restrict bets to things that are +EV and avoid -EV as best as possible (hopefully entirely) and we'll all earn profits from our gambling. Yes I do know there is a very small possibility a person who only makes +EV plays every day could end up a lifetime loser. How many people will there be in the world where that happens compared to the number of players who are lifetime losers but do make -EV plays, either occasionally or regularly?
TomG
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June 5th, 2015 at 12:39:33 PM permalink
Quote: stabworld

I started scouting jacks or better machines in my regular rotation of casinos I count in - and came across a few 9/6 full pay jacks or better at the $5 denomination. What would be a proper bankroll for a machine at this level?



You could play this game with any bankroll over $5 (or at least $25 if you insist on playing with the lowest house advantage). But the game has a house edge of 0.46%. So without any other bonus on top of it, no bankroll could survive a negative expectation game given enough time. Even Bill Gates would go broke if he played non-stop for the next 80,000 years (assuming he stopped earning interest on his money while he was playing).

If there is enough bonus on top of this game to make it profitable, the bankroll requirements should be very close to 20 times whatever is needed for a 25-cent game. Only additional factor I can think of that you would need to calculate would be tax liabilities. Maybe someone else can add additional things you would need to consider
stabworld
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June 18th, 2015 at 5:24:37 AM permalink
Does anybody know, what is the theoretical amount of hours (or hands) needed to reach your positive expected value where standard deviation and variance balances out, when playing perfect strategy video poker with an edge? (specifically JOB 9/6)

(I'm sure it is different depending on the game)
(I'm thinking it would weigh heavily on how frequently you should be getting royals and the top paying hands.)

With advantage play in blackjack (counting), you should expect to be in line with your +EV after 300-500 hours of play. I wonder what it is on Video Poker.
RS
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June 18th, 2015 at 5:58:27 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Does anybody know, what is the theoretical amount of hours (or hands) needed to reach your positive expected value where standard deviation and variance balances out, when playing perfect strategy video poker with an edge? (specifically JOB 9/6)

(I'm sure it is different depending on the game)
(I'm thinking it would way heavily on how frequently you should be getting royals and the top paying hands.)

With advantage play in blackjack (counting), you should expect to be in line with your +EV after 300-500 hours of play. I wonder what it is on Video Poker.



I'd imagine you just gotta figure out how many hands you gotta play so that EV = SD. If you know the SD of the game (for job it's 19.5 or something?), and you'd have to calculate the EV yourself, since we don't know what your edge is on the game.
surrender88s
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June 18th, 2015 at 8:07:09 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Does anybody know, what is the theoretical amount of hours (or hands) needed to reach your positive expected value where standard deviation and variance balances out, when playing perfect strategy video poker with an edge? (specifically JOB 9/6)

(I'm sure it is different depending on the game)
(I'm thinking it would way heavily on how frequently you should be getting royals and the top paying hands.)

With advantage play in blackjack (counting), you should expect to be in line with your +EV after 300-500 hours of play. I wonder what it is on Video Poker.


(edit to correct math)
With blackjack, a crazy outlier win is something like 8 times your max bet. So with a 1-10 spread, a win of 80 units. That's about as much positive variance as you'll ever see, so being in-line with your expectation(EV) is more feasible. In video poker, the biggest win is 800 units. That royal flush is about 2% of your EV, and it happens once in every 40,000 hands.

I guess what I'm getting at, is that I don't think it's reasonable to have a goal of being in line with EV. You just put in the time, make sure you have an accurate estimate of the EV/hour of what you play. On occasion you may be in line, but I'd think you spend most of your time hopping around that number. If you were to compare your blackjack bankroll's movements to that of a video poker bankrolls, blackjack would look like a random walk around the EV line, while video poker will look like a downward trending line with big jumps at royals.

maybe you could track how many hands you'd have to play to get a normalized number of royals. For instance, I know the chance of having 10 royals after 400k hands would be relatively low despite being the expectation. Maybe something like 50 royal cycles? 2million hands?
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
stabworld
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June 18th, 2015 at 10:56:53 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I'd imagine you just gotta figure out how many hands you gotta play so that EV = SD. If you know the SD of the game (for job it's 19.5 or something?), and you'd have to calculate the EV yourself, since we don't know what your edge is on the game.



Let's assume, my edge is .56% or 100.56% (1% cash back) on 9/6 full pay JOB. How would I calculate this with a standard deviation of 19.5?
RS
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June 18th, 2015 at 7:11:17 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/answers/#a3

SD = variance^(1/2)

SD = SD * hands^(1/2) * 5*denom

denom = $5

SD = 4.417542

x = # of hands

SD = 4.417542 * x^(1/2) * 5 * denom

EV = x * 5*denom * 0.0056 {EV = 0.56% edge, yes?}


So we're looking for X (# of hands) where SD = EV. Well then, solve for X:

4.417542 * x^(1/2) * 5 * denom = x * 5 * denom * 0.0056

# of hands is about 621,000.
stabworld
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June 20th, 2015 at 2:14:55 PM permalink
Quote: RS

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/answers/#a3

SD = variance^(1/2)

SD = SD * hands^(1/2) * 5*denom

denom = $5

SD = 4.417542

x = # of hands

SD = 4.417542 * x^(1/2) * 5 * denom

EV = x * 5*denom * 0.0056 {EV = 0.56% edge, yes?}


So we're looking for X (# of hands) where SD = EV. Well then, solve for X:

4.417542 * x^(1/2) * 5 * denom = x * 5 * denom * 0.0056

# of hands is about 621,000.



Wow, are you a math major? That's way over my head. So basically that equates to around 776 hours, for somebody playing 800 hands an hour.
stabworld
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February 18th, 2016 at 6:42:33 AM permalink
Ok, this thread been in stasis mode for about 8 months now. I put off Advantage Play in Video Poker up until now. I bought a few books, been practicing perfect optimal play on JOB 9/6 with some crappy free stuff on the internet, but intend to buy Bob Dancer's poker for winners software to practice some more before I go all out in the casino's. (little disappointed that the JOB is not available on his 3 day free trial).

I do have a question for anybody that may shed some light on this situation or may have experienced it themselves.

My question is:

If you hit a royal while playing under another person's players card, can the casino refuse to pay you out?

Assuming the worst case scenario:

1. you are a man using a woman's card with a different last name as you, (so its evident its not your wife's card),
2. your royal payout requires you to pay tax,
3. you are more than willing to give your real id for tax purposes,
4. however, you have been identified as an advantage player in that particular casino (card counting BJ), with your comp account frozen, and it's pretty clear you are attempting to play under another person's name to get around this restrictive play and generate casino comps (slot play, free play, etc.) (this is assuming they will actually check to see if you are an advantage player) I don't know if this is standard procedure when having to payout a royal on video poker.
ukaserex
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February 18th, 2016 at 7:01:11 AM permalink
Someone will undoubtedly chime in with specific experience. I can only hazard a guess.

With each royal I've gotten, it's been my own card. And, each time, they tell me to take my card out.

So, if I had someone else's card, I would just take it out before they arrive.

I have no idea if the card owner's name would still be visible. That may depend on the individual casino. It's never been something I noticed or cared to look for.

If they do consider you AP from blackjack, they know that if you're playing VP, there's not much they can do. I doubt they are "monitoring" you while you play a machine. But, again, that may depend on where you play.

Pretty sure that you would get paid. An alert attendant may notice and report it and they may tell you to go on your merry way, with jackpot in hand.
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
beachbumbabs
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February 18th, 2016 at 7:04:47 AM permalink
FWIW, there's a lot of precedent for a jackpot belonging to whoever pushed the button, not whose card is in the slot or whose money it was in the machine. No, I don't have specific examples, but others on here do. No idea whether they would pay a person who's been banned and hits a jackpot, but I would guess they would negate the pay based on a trespass if things had gone that far previously.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
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February 18th, 2016 at 7:23:07 AM permalink
^^^^^^^^^^ If you've previously been trespassed then that's a bit of a different beast. I would be inclined to think they don't have to pay you because you're not allowed to be on their grounds. If you were just backed off from BJ but allowed to play other games, then you're fine. I would consult an attorney if you were trespassed but then hit a jackpot, though again I'd think you're out of luck.

Quote: stabworld

Ok, this thread been in stasis mode for about 8 months now. I put off Advantage Play in Video Poker up until now. I bought a few books, been practicing perfect optimal play on JOB 9/6 with some crappy free stuff on the internet, but intend to buy Bob Dancer's poker for winners software to practice some more before I go all out in the casino's. (little disappointed that the JOB is not available on his 3 day free trial).

I do have a question for anybody that may shed some light on this situation or may have experienced it themselves.

My question is:

If you hit a royal while playing under another person's players card, can the casino refuse to pay you out?

Assuming the worst case scenario:

1. you are a man using a woman's card with a different last name as you, (so its evident its not your wife's card),
2. your royal payout requires you to pay tax,
3. you are more than willing to give your real id for tax purposes,
4. however, you have been identified as an advantage player in that particular casino (card counting BJ), with your comp account frozen, and it's pretty clear you are attempting to play under another person's name to get around this restrictive play and generate casino comps (slot play, free play, etc.) (this is assuming they will actually check to see if you are an advantage player) I don't know if this is standard procedure when having to payout a royal on video poker.

Bob N. talked about these on the GWAE radio show. As always I'll promote people going and if nothing else looking up all Bob N's appearances and listening to those =P.

It doesn't matter what card is in the machine if you made a legal bet they have to pay it. They could squeal about it but in the end they have to pay you because you made a proper bet. You can always say it's a friends card you're holding for them and you put the wrong one in the machine, etc. You don't have to do this though. The most they can do is delete all of the reward points on the card you're playing on, and/or delete your points as well if they get your ID for the tax purposes and you have a players account with them. They reserve all rights to do what they want with your mailers, comp dollars, and tier credits. Again though, they must pay you the jackpot if you hit it fair and square, regardless of card.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DRich
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February 18th, 2016 at 7:57:06 AM permalink
In your scenario I would expect to get paid in any state run casino, Indian casinos may not pay you. Also expect to get trespassed from the property and have the card you were playing on also get suspended.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
stabworld
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February 19th, 2016 at 4:50:30 AM permalink
Thanks for the feedback everyone. Ok, so I feel better in the fact I will get paid.

**side note, I would not attempt this in a casino I have been trespassed on.
sabre
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February 19th, 2016 at 5:02:58 AM permalink
Quote: stabworld

Thanks for the feedback everyone. Ok, so I feel better in the fact I will get paid.

**side note, I would not attempt this in a casino I have been trespassed on.



Yeah, make sure when they refuse to pay you and have you arrested for fraud that you tell them a few people on the interwebs told you it might be OK to play on someone else's card.
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